How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder what RU will actually be receiving from a quality standpoint.  Hopefully these shells are defective -- variations in propellant load & quality hopefully leading to lots of short rounds; defective munitions (duds); misfires requiring dangerous clearing process -- the occasional round exploding in the barrel or in handling would be nice.  Do we think that NK storage and maintenence are better than in RU?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

I guess we will soon find out. Russian supplies tend to end up in Ukrainian hands quite often, and I'm unsure if Russia will do a (good) paint job on all of them.

[Huba]

Noel is usually a bit overoptimistic with his claims, so the grain of salt is in order - but it's getting intersting:

Edit:
Reportedly, cell-phone towers are being blown up too:

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Huba

[Grossman]

Putting some threads together.....a leaked intelligence report indicates Putin has early stage Alzheimer's, plus his pancreatic cancer. He is loaded with drugs presumably which suppresses his immune system. This could account for his distancing at meetings, and his clutching at structures as his balance is impeded. A source in Russia indicates an order for 800,000 beds, which may mean he is intending to order a complete mobilisation in Russia in 2023.  At every turn Putin has escalated. Although he did back down on the grain deal, probably because forces inside Russia advised him to. The UK Express reports there are "power groups"| in Russia  challenging Putin. You  can imagine there is an immense internal pressure on Putin, his power base has weakened considerably on account of his failures. If he is now planning a complete mobilisation, internal forces may take a hand. This is all speculation of course. But possible. 

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Grossman said:

Putting some threads together.....a leaked intelligence report indicates Putin has early stage Alzheimer's, plus his pancreatic cancer. He is loaded with drugs presumably which suppresses his immune system. This could account for his distancing at meetings, and his clutching at structures as his balance is impeded. A source in Russia indicates an order for 800,000 beds, which may mean he is intending to order a complete mobilisation in Russia in 2023.  At every turn Putin has escalated. Although he did back down on the grain deal, probably because forces inside Russia advised him to. The UK Express reports there are "power groups"| in Russia  challenging Putin. You  can imagine there is an immense internal pressure on Putin, his power base has weakened considerably on account of his failures. If he is now planning a complete mobilisation, internal forces may take a hand. This is all speculation of course. But possible. 

Maybe peace will come when his alzheimer's gets so bad he simply forgets about the war.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Ts4EVER]

34 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Mayby peace will come when his alzheimer's gets so bad he simply forgets about the war.

One day he will walk into the briefing room in the morning all like "Gentlemen, I have decided to invade Ukraine!"

[Huba]

@Haiduk Regarding our previous discussion about the multi-purpose minesweeps - here's an interesting photo from building an obstacle on PL border with Kralovec (a.k.a Kalininigrad). 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

@danfrodo in action!

 

Ya did it again, but out of respect for my own memory of this specific cartoon... I'll let it slide.  I've got a pile of Bloom County books and I even have a 2' high stuffed Bill The Cat.  So you're lucky you hit my nostalgia button.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wait, wut??!!!!

Pskov is up north next to Estonia, and IMHO a prime candidate to break away from Russia as its own free republic postwar (land border with Baltics + dense taiga/lakes + huge population of disgusted ex-paratroopers => a local militia that would quickly chew and spit out any  intruders from Moscow)

Did I miss something big while I was away (work travel)?

Yeah, someone blew up a bunch of helicopters by placing explosives directly onto them.  The cheeky bugger even released a video of himself doing it.  Scroll down in the thread I linked to and you'll see all kinds of info. 

Here's a link to the video:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1691550/Putin-s-military-helicopters-Russia-Veretye-airbase-Ukraine-army-weapons-vn

Steve

[cesmonkey]

The Wall Street Journal has a new poll where it asks Americans what they think about the level of support for Ukraine.
I don't have a subscription so I can't see it, but the Hill says that 48% of Republicans now view the current level of aid as too much.
https://thehill.com/homenews/3717304-more-republicans-opposed-to-continued-ukraine-aid-survey/

 

[Beleg85]

52 minutes ago, Huba said:

Regarding our previous discussion about the multi-purpose minesweeps - here's an interesting photo from building an obstacle on PL border with Kralovec (a.k.a Kalininigrad). 

They are probably mocking local Chech border guards with this funny device.

Very interesting news from Kherson. It looks like UA military is very cautious and sceptical, this may be rotation of troops or a trap for attackers. It is doubtful Russians created a lot of defensive areas just to leave them there. For now working thesis is that Moskals rotate troops, abandon some checkpoints and regoup defences for something less logistically demanding.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They are probably mocking local Chech border guards with this funny device.

Very interesting news from Kherson. It looks like UA military is very cautious and sceptical, this may be rotation of troops or a trap for attackers. It is doubtful Russians created a lot of defensive areas just to leave them there. For now working thesis is that Moskals rotate troops, abandon some checkpoints and regoup defences for something less logistically demanding.

But every time they contract it lets the AFU bring more fire onto the river crossing points. Getting smaller just doesn't work. it has taken longer than I thought it would, but the Russians are leaving one way or another. And we still don't know what it has cost them to hold it this long, either. If the last effective units of the VDV have been pushed to the point of being combat ineffective just to drag this out for a few weeks it will actually shorten the war.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting news from Kherson. It looks like UA military is very cautious and sceptical, this may be rotation of troops or a trap for attackers. It is doubtful Russians created a lot of defensive areas just to leave them there. For now working thesis is that Moskals rotate troops, abandon some checkpoints and regoup defences for something less logistically demanding.

The typical confusing signals from Moscow and the ground is doing what it is supposed to do... confuse   One day we see and hear evidence of them withdrawing, the next we see and hear evidence that they are reinforcing.  Official commentary from Russian officials being directly contradictory to each other, which indicates either dysfunction in their messaging or deliberate attempts to hide what they are doing.  Unfortunately, Russia is both dysfunctional and devious messengers, so it's it's very difficult to say what's going on without some hard facts or more objective reporting.

I will say that today's news makes me lean more towards Russian military withdrawal. 

One thing is clear to me, though, and that is Russia knows it can't hold Kherson as a civilian administered district.  The couple of weeks of "evacuations" and recent large scale looting (even by previous standards) coupled with sinking boats and blowing up cellphone towers, seems pretty convincing to me that Russia knows it's game over.  Even if it tries to hold out militarily, it will likely be reduced to Kherson itself and that's not something they need an expansive civilian occupation force for as it will be a battlefield vs. an administrative unit.

OK, if we accept the premise that Russia knows it can't keep Kherson as a civilian extension of the Russian Empire, then why should it continue to occupy it militarily?  Pride and future operational fantasies are definite possibilities, but are they enough given the realities Russia faces?  Has Russia finally come to understand that having a VDV and other units surrender in the ruins of Kherson because they weren't withdrawn to stop the loss of territory in Luhansk is way worse than withdrawing in good order from the right bank of the Dnepr?  Has it finally gotten into the thick skulls at the Kremlin that Russia will be lucky to hold any of its 2014 stolen territory, therefore taking the rest of the Azov coastline is never going to happen? 

If so, then Russia is likely going to conduct a fighting retreat into Kherson city and evacuate forces and equipment as the perimeter shrinks.  The end will be very messy for Russia as withdrawals under intense pressure rarely go well for the defender during the last stage.  However, it will be less messy than the alternatives.

Steve

[danfrodo]

dang, slow news day for sure from the front.  yet another very close combat video, this time from Steve.  Every time we here about drones and high tech this & that there's another video showing some utterly terrifying close quarters fight.  Firefight from several hundred of  meters away is scary, I am sure.  But this is close enough to throw rocks.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The typical confusing signals from Moscow and the ground is doing what it is supposed to do... confuse   One day we see and hear evidence of them withdrawing, the next we see and hear evidence that they are reinforcing.  Official commentary from Russian officials being directly contradictory to each other, which indicates either dysfunction in their messaging or deliberate attempts to hide what they are doing.  Unfortunately, Russia is both dysfunctional and devious messengers, so it's it's very difficult to say what's going on without some hard facts or more objective reporting.

Yup, however unlinke with propaganda and diplmacy, on military level sooner than later they will hit the wall of reality.

About the topic, some notes from fieldtrip by Kofman:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1588160941665189888

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ya did it again, but out of respect for my own memory of this specific cartoon... I'll let it slide.  I've got a pile of Bloom County books and I even have a 2' high stuffed Bill The Cat.  So you're lucky you hit my nostalgia button.

Steve

I gotta say I was a huge Bloom County fan myself.  This one misses the mark only by actually shooting the liberal, which at the time may have seemed innocuous, but now not so much.  LLF is somewhat misguided but I like him, so all is good.  Beside, the cartoon author is now sucking up lots of evil socialized medicine himself at his age in great irony to this cartoon.  

[sburke]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ya did it again, but out of respect for my own memory of this specific cartoon... I'll let it slide.  I've got a pile of Bloom County books and I even have a 2' high stuffed Bill The Cat.  So you're lucky you hit my nostalgia button.

Steve

yeah but do you still have the Billy and the Boingers vinyl?

 

[dan/california]

BANG!

[Cogust]

My only rectangular vinyl record.

[sburke]

Explosions ring out at Melitopol plant housing Russian headquarters (yahoo.com)

[Huba]

This take seems to be rather weird. Should be a great opportunity to at least easily shrink the RU controlled area.

And here's a take from Dwa Majory:

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Huba

[Artkin]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

The Wall Street Journal has a new poll where it asks Americans what they think about the level of support for Ukraine.
I don't have a subscription so I can't see it, but the Hill says that 48% of Republicans now view the current level of aid as too much.
https://thehill.com/homenews/3717304-more-republicans-opposed-to-continued-ukraine-aid-survey/

 

I would like to restress the corruption of our politicians. We spend

900 Billion Dollars

on our military every single year. Russia is 1 of 2 challengers of peace, and is currently close to defeat.

It was paid for with a pitiful fraction of this enormous amount of money.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Interesting that the Ukrainians appear to see or hear the drone in time to run away (EDIT: in the FH70 video)

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Vanir Ausf B

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Interesting that the Ukrainians appear to see or hear the drone in time to run away (EDIT: in the FH70 video)

 

This seems to be about the most useful piece of kit the Russians have. The amount air defense that an army is going to need going forward is just staggering. There are going to have to be gun/missile/laser coverage everywhere.

[womble]

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

BANG!

Was that the drone zooming its optics out, or being hurled a hundred further metres into the air by the shockwave?!

[MSBoxer]

Park one of these next to your artillery and drones won't survive long.

Now this is possibly overkill considering the speed of most current kamikaze drones, so I am sure it could be downsized a bit.