How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

From ISW's report on Oct 21st:

The report goes on to be a lot more specific about their thinking.  Which can be summed up as 2000 unlucky mobiks (in truth, is there any other type?) bodies being used as speedbump to slow Ukraine's ability to finish off withdrawing "elite" forces, such as VDV, Marine, and Spetsnaz.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say few of those 2000 will ever get back to Russia unless they are wounded and evacuated.

For those of you who enjoy ISW's occasional brush with expressing a colorful opinion instead of their usual detached analyst lingo, look at this one here:

Yikes

Steve

Blowing the dam would essentially be an admission that Russia expects to lose the rest of Kherson, probably Zaporizhzhia as well and would likely fatally doom any hopes to make Crimea a viable territory should Russia continue to hold it. 

I therefor predict Russia will blow the dam. 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As I said when this was first brought to our attention... Russians are half assing this because they half *** everything.

I've said it before, and I enjoyed saying it sufficiently that I will repeat myself:

The Russian army is less a military and more a cargo cult. They do things that look military if not examined too closely, but is mostly them going through the motions to make the victory in The Great Patriotic War manifest itself again.

From these lizard teeth (not so much dragon now, I think) to dumping bewildered Mobniks at the front without giving them so much as a clue as to what to do next. It is all seemingly about appearance more than capability.

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/war-and-regrets-in-ukraine/

(Mind you, I'm just sticking to his bizarro looking glass thumbnail of the military situation here)

1.  At least 400,000 Ukrainian battlefield casualties including 100,000 soldiers killed in action. 

[his source is someone who basically quotes Russia MOD, when he's not quoting, well,  MacGregor, Ritter, Helmer, Marcoulis, MoA, the same circular firing squad]

2. The ongoing buildup of 700,000 Russian forces with modern equipment in Western Russia, Eastern Ukraine and Belorussia is a direct consequence of Moscow’s decision to adopt an elastic, strategic defense of the territories it seized.

3. Ukrainian losses have been catastrophic and by November, Russian Forces will be in a position to strike a knockout blow.

4.  As long as Washington delivers cash, military assistance, and equipment to Ukraine, Kiev will fight its unwinnable war, and Washington’s ruling political class will profit... But Washington, its NATO allies, and Ukrainians will gain nothing of strategic value, while Russia is likely to grow stronger.

[OK, well, Doug's done other than some Beltway blather and how we are arrogantly disrespecting Russia, China, etc., but here's his sole source for the key item 3, dated 30 Sept.]

....I think 90% of the posters here have better qualified resumes than this Dude, but let's see what he thinks (no footnotes of course, we're just supposed to take his word for it. But, the Dude is a musician and a software programmer!)

a. The vast majority of the [new] Ukrainian force consisted of battle-naïve conscripts, a substantial proportion of which had received a few weeks of “accelerated training” at NATO bases in Poland, Germany, and Great Britain.

b. In addition, the lion’s share of NATO equipment delivered during that time was hoarded for this new army.

c. [This force] appears to have been between 35,000 – 50,000, including approximately 5000 of the NATO-affiliated “foreign volunteers” who would ultimately serve as “shock troops” .

d. [In Kharkiv oblast] Russian forces conducted a remarkably disciplined fighting retreat, progressed through multiple prepared lines of defense, and exacted severe losses on Ukrainian men and equipment every step of the way, while suffering relatively modest losses themselves.  

e. Every day for the past two weeks, Ukrainian reports claimed that the AFU had taken or were about to take Kupyansk, which sits astride the river. But it was never true until two days ago, when the Russian forces in the eastern part of the city finally ceded it to the Ukrainians – but not before having inflicted a massacre entirely disproportionate to their own losses.

e. the Russians have, in typical fashion, savaged the Ukrainian assaults primarily with indirect fires provided by artillery and airstrikes, continually corrected by drones and forward spotters.

f. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims thousands of Ukrainians killed in the recent battles along the Oskol River line of defense between Kupyansk and Liman. This is in addition to other thousands dead in the first week of the offensive. And now the nearly exhausted Ukrainian attack is at the far extent of the salient created by this last-gasp “counter-offensive”. 

MacGregor, for those who care. In the name of the 'Friends Don't Let Friends Echo Chamber'...

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

53 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Properly a sweet time to add ATACMS to the play. Logistics have just adapted to HIMARS.

 

Locals on Donbas (especially in Luhansk oblast) write, Russins now mostly use "mobile ammo dumps" - group of several trailer trucks, which load themeslves from trains directly on railway stations and then deploy themeselves throughout cities and towns, changing own stand points. Locals write the huge number of trailer trucks are driving around.  

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Blowing the dam would essentially be an admission that Russia expects to lose the rest of Kherson, probably Zaporizhzhia as well and would likely fatally doom any hopes to make Crimea a viable territory should Russia continue to hold it. 

I therefor predict Russia will blow the dam. 

Yeah I don't get why some people think Russia cares about Crimea or people there. It's an occupied Ukrainian territory with people they consider "untermenschen" - they only need it as a fleet base. Blowing up the dam would mean they acknowledge they will not be able to hold and exploit fertile lands of Kherson area and will be done to deny Ukraine using them either - which is very very russian.

[Haiduk]

First appearance of T-62M on Krasnyi Yar range (Transbaikal region). Tanks equipped with 1PN96MT-02 gunner's sight with thermal channel and LRF. In 2019 this sight was mounted on the batch of upgraded T-62 for Uzbekistan

1PN96MT-02 has detection range 2000 m and angle of view 9 degrees and 3 degrees for 6.5x zoom 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[quakerparrot67]

15 hours ago, OldSarge said:

Yes, I certainly agree with that. The early indicators are that the House will be at best stalled, especially if they apply the 'Hastert' rule. It won't be a very productive House and as you say, they won't be concerned with public opinion. Instead focusing on the revenge tour. H.L. Mencken is somewhere saying 'I told ya so!'.

from what i know of mencken he would be on their side...

 

cheers,

rob

 

[Huba]

Kherson occupation administration called for immediate evacuation of all civilians. Human shields for the goodwill gesture? 

[Taranis]

"A woman takes part in a combat training session for civilians, in the Rostov region, Russia, October 21, 2022. SERGEY PIVOVAROV / REUTERS"

[akd]

Popped his top:

Interesting that they appear to be engaged in an active battle.

[Combatintman]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but I don't get how this is different from how leadership currently works in the game?

Or do you mean that leadership should be split in 'officer leadership' & 'NCO leadership' modifiers, which come into play when C2 is cut?

It isn't - there's just a lot of people bumping their gums about the game's soft factors who haven't looked hard enough into the editor to know how they can be applied.  Most squad-sized units in most armies are commanded by NCOs - you want NCO-led units to be rubbish - select the squad-sized unit(s) and turn the experience, leadership and motivation factors down to whatever level you deem appropriate.  You want the officer to be good (I'm still waiting btw ) then turn those factors up for the platoon HQ, Company HQ and Battalion HQ.

[Zeleban]

Australian Cossacks?

[Beleg85]

Despite scarcity of information, there are reports of very strong Ukrainian counterattack south of Bakhmut, partially confirmed by RU sources. They pushed Dirlewagnerites out of Asphalt Factory behind M03 road. If true, they lost almost everything they have there from May - significant Ukrainian success.

Short clip from Zaitsevo:

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1583745617347870723

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[poesel]

5 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Two videos to watch.

I know those, they are quite informative. But what is the connection to my post?

56 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

It isn't - there's just a lot of people bumping their gums about the game's soft factors who haven't looked hard enough into the editor to know how they can be applied.  Most squad-sized units in most armies are commanded by NCOs - you want NCO-led units to be rubbish - select the squad-sized unit(s) and turn the experience, leadership and motivation factors down to whatever level you deem appropriate.  You want the officer to be good (I'm still waiting btw ) then turn those factors up for the platoon HQ, Company HQ and Battalion HQ.

What I meant with the 'split' leadership modifiers for officers & NCOs is, that when you buy a battalion, and you want bad NCOs you wouldn't have to click on every squad to make them bad.

Not an actual change of functionality, but quality of life. If you change the leadership of the battalion, you automatically change the leadership of ALL squads.

[Letter from Prague]

Seems Putin found his way to win, with West doing nothing to help.

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Seems Putin found his way to win, with West doing nothing to help.

Huh? 
 

https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/oct-6-2022-united-states-announces-55-million-in-emergency-assistance-to-help-ukraine-prepare-for-winter

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Seems Putin found his way to win, with West doing nothing to help.

West is doing a lot to help. Not enough we would like to, but comme on...

 

First news of several villages in Kherson, south of Davydyv Brid are being abandoned by Russians.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

MacGregor, for those who care. In the name of the 'Friends Don't Let Friends Echo Chamber'...

Yeah, but friends also don't let friends drink poison Koolaid   Macgregor is full on insane.  As in mentally unstable.  I don't even think a Kremlin paycheck can explain his statements.  I really hope Fox News stops giving this guy airtime.  Even they should be concerned about having someone with this degree of mental instability onto their shows. 

Steve

[Seminole]

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I've said it before, and I enjoyed saying it sufficiently that I will repeat myself:

The Russian army is less a military and more a cargo cult. They do things that look military if not examined too closely, but is mostly them going through the motions to make the victory in The Great Patriotic War manifest itself again.

From these lizard teeth (not so much dragon now, I think) to dumping bewildered Mobniks at the front without giving them so much as a clue as to what to do next. It is all seemingly about appearance more than capability.

I believe the phrase you’re looking for is Potemkin Army…

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Insur Kinyakayev, deputy battalion commander in 31st Air-Assault Brigade.  Still finding out about officers who died in the first days of the invasion.

 

[danfrodo]

xxx

Edited October 22, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

It isn't - there's just a lot of people bumping their gums about the game's soft factors who haven't looked hard enough into the editor to know how they can be applied.  Most squad-sized units in most armies are commanded by NCOs - you want NCO-led units to be rubbish - select the squad-sized unit(s) and turn the experience, leadership and motivation factors down to whatever level you deem appropriate.  You want the officer to be good (I'm still waiting btw ) then turn those factors up for the platoon HQ, Company HQ and Battalion HQ.

Yeah, but what about Quick Battles with auto selected forces?

There's a lot to be said for CM's ability to play around with values in the Editor for a knowledgeable and experienced designer to get exactly what is needed for a particular battle.  Kudos to whomever designed the system   However, the optimal way it should be is the default represents the average situation, Editor is used to tweak things for abnormal.

I think the way to do that is to have some sort of setting related to doctrinal differences between force structures.  NOT NATIONAL BASED!!  In the case of Russia, you can have regular Army units with NCOs ("seniors") who have very poor Leadership ratings by default, yet Spetsnaz and VDV units with better ones because those units have greater focus on low level leadership.

My thought is to have two separate Quality settings for units:

• Equipment Quality
• Leadership Quality

This way you can have units with the best equipment but the worst Leadership values.  Or poor for both or good for both, whatever.  Not only would this be good for whacking the Russians for having no professional NCOs, but it could also be used as a way to distinguish something like the modern US 101st Airborne from a National Guard unit that was hurriedly called up.  Might have 100% the same equipment as the 101st, but there's likely going to be a difference in the quality of leadership simply because the 101st is doing it full time where the National Guard unit needs time to get "back into the groove".  We saw that in Desert Shield, for example, where National Guard units needed some time to get their cohesion sorted out.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I've said it before, and I enjoyed saying it sufficiently that I will repeat myself:

The Russian army is less a military and more a cargo cult. They do things that look military if not examined too closely, but is mostly them going through the motions to make the victory in The Great Patriotic War manifest itself again.

From these lizard teeth (not so much dragon now, I think) to dumping bewildered Mobniks at the front without giving them so much as a clue as to what to do next. It is all seemingly about appearance more than capability.

Yup.  Looking competent and dangerous is really what all the modern Russian military is.  As discussed, this is why Russia has had loads of tanks and insufficient C2, ISR, logistics, etc.  One shows up really well in Red Square, the others don't.  This mentality applies to everything the Russian MoD does by default, only deviating when absolutely necessary.  The apparent mobile supply dumps, for example, was something borne out of necessity after getting their arses spanked hard.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Despite scarcity of information, there are reports of very strong Ukrainian counterattack south of Bakhmut, partially confirmed by RU sources. They pushed Dirlewagnerites out of Asphalt Factory behind M03 road. If true, they lost almost everything they have there from May - significant Ukrainian success.

Short clip from Zaitsevo:

https://twitter.com/TuiteroMartin/status/1583745617347870723

 

Once I learned the 93rd was moved down into the area I got the sense that Ukraine has decided it is time to push back.  The Wagner forces must be pretty beat up by this point, scraping together forces to keep the attacks going.  It is probable that Ukraine can find places where the defenses are thin and hit back effectively.  At least at the tactical level.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

Has anyone been following the the US Army's development of robotic battlefield vehicles much?

I just saw this article:
‘Lightning in a bottle’: Inside the ‘Origin’ of the Army’s future robotic fleet

Which made me go look and find this article:
Army Special Operations Forces use Project Origin systems in latest Soldier experiment

"Robots Don't Bleed"