How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Evgeny Loskutov, Head of Intelligence, 11th Air-Assault Brigade:

 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Curious whether it is (or was) a wine shop or an actual winery:

There is real vinery "Artway", which specialized on sparcling wines production by classical Champenois technology since 1950: https://artwinery.com.ua/en

Bottles keep in alabaster adits on 72 m under surface. Vinery get a grape in southern oblasts of Ukraine

Edited October 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is a very good question.  I am not sure what the idea of a full visa ban was supposed to accomplish to be honest.  I think the theory was that is would provide additional pressure on the Russian people to oppose this war by depriving them the opportunity to go and spend money in another country?  There was also some really stretching ideas about stopping a subversive 5th column or somesuch nonsense with respect to national security.

As to the first idea - Putin appears more scared of hardcore nationalists and a Russian identity crisis than opposition to the war.  I am not sure how a tourist ban will impact that dynamic.  Further Putin appears to be running a pretty oppressive regime so locking people who want to resist or at least draft dodge seems a bit counterintuitive.  If one wants to create and support resistance, one normally has to provide safe haven not lock opposition in.  Letting people run away from Russia is supporting a form of resistance and eroding their human capital base.

As to the second - oh dear just stop.  If Russia wants to foment, spy and/or cause ruckus in a third nation, particularly one on its borders, a visa ban is not really going to do much to stop it.  The apparatus for subversion is likely already in place and rooted in local nationals with an axe to grind.  Counter-subversion is a close cousin to counter insurgency/VEO which is a massive enterprise spanning finance, ideology and human networks. For example, information warfare and influence activities online do not need visas.  And if Russia really wants to get “agents” physically in, there are a myriad of ways to make that happen from diplomatic visas to false identity/citizenship.

So I would probably do a selective restriction on Russian visas to be honest.  Draft dodgers, refugees and brain drain..fine let them happen.  Resistance needs to be scooped up, vetted, supported and sent back in.  Tourists, sure ban some to keep electorate happy and make some headlines.  Russian spies and agents - definitely let them in; tag em and follow them in order to map networks with an eye for penetration later.  The trick will be getting these groups right, and mistakes will be made but a smart filter could do more damage to Russia than a total ban “easy button”.  Of course the West needs to get in the game and start supporting nations in the Baltics on this effort because it is going to cost.  In the West itself we have got an enormous border control system with a global intelligence system in place thanks to GWOT, getting that pointed at a new target and the legal authorizations in place to do so is where most of the *** pain is likely occurring right now.

So “Total Ban”, because it feels good…no.

Smart Restrictions backed up by an intelligence architecture and support to resistance program that make Russias prosecution of this war harder…yeeup.

 

Put simply:

1. The intelligence haul from Russians fleeing is going to be higher than the risks of additional Russian operatives among those fleeing. 

2. Every 30 year old productive male subtracted from the Russian economy and/or the Russian military manpower pool is a win for the West.

3. We are fighting a war of systems. A continuously demonstrated desire, among the best and brightest in Russia, that ours is better never stops being a good thing.

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Put simply:

1. The intelligence haul from Russians fleeing is going to be higher than the risks of additional Russian operatives among those fleeing. 

2. Every 30 year old productive male subtracted from the Russian economy and/or the Russian military manpower pool is a win for the West.

3. We are fighting a war of systems. A continuously demonstrated desire, among the best and brightest in Russia, that ours is better never stops being a good thing.

That is the most succinct yet insightful post I've seen in a while.  Well done!   

[danfrodo]

Interesting 'what if' for the nova kahovka damn.  Shows flooding effect, at various water levels.  Most of the flooding would be on left (RU) side.  Kherson on higher ground so would mostly not flood.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect

 

[kraze]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And I will once again call BS on this assertion. Cite a credible source on Red Army demographics.

I already provided you with such source the last time which describes demographics of RA and their change from '39 to '45. For some reason you didn't reply to it and we aren't doing the same dance again.

[acrashb]

Speaking of a "war of systems", we often talk about Russian culture and its follow-on effects on their military culture.  I'm fine with a martial element to early childhood education.  It can build respect for the people who keep the rest of us free and may help enrollment in professional armies later in life.

I do, however, draw the line at grenade launchers in Kindergarten:

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-army-vet-shows-off-ak-47s-and-grenade-launchers-to-kindergarten-class

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Yevgeniy Loskutov, chief of recon, HQ of 11th air-assault brigade, Eastern military district. Data of death unknown. Buried on 20th of Oct.

 

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Speaking of a "war of systems", we often talk about Russian culture and its follow-on effects on their military culture.  I'm fine with a martial element to early childhood education.  It can build respect for the people who keep the rest of us free and may help enrollment in professional armies later in life.

I do, however, draw the line at grenade launchers in Kindergarten:

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-army-vet-shows-off-ak-47s-and-grenade-launchers-to-kindergarten-class

 

The best joke I have ever read in the Economist, "There is obviously something terribly wrong with the French education system, it produces Frenchmen". As applied to France it is just a harmless bit of fun. But if you apply it to Russia...the whole society has deep, severe issues, the kind it take at least a generation to move in any meaningful way.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, but why isn't Prigozhin doing what Kadyrov does with his TikTok warriors?  He could either have them pretend to be tough guys or have them act as Putin's Fire Brigade and gain real/imagined glory for bailing the military out of tough spots?

I suspect one complication for this is that the Army will refuse to allow them into their sectors.  They've basically handed the Donbas over to the locals and Wagner so they don't care what Wagner does or doesn't do there.  So Wagner is trying to do the best it can within this area and, for whatever reason, can't get Putin to intervene and send them someplace more useful.

Steve

Because Prigozhin is still Kremlin's point man, not King Under the Mountain with separate kingdom like Kadyrov. He does what Putin tell him to do, and despite apparent popularity among "non-certified" nationalists he is reasonable enough not to go at odds with regular military. Clearly Putin does not want it; note that open rivalry between factions we saw circa 2-3 weeks ago seems to be pacified for now. Or rather it gone into underground again due to effectively silencing main milbloggers.

Any case, no external signs sign of withering Putin's power.

Speaking of Kadyrov...see what this barbarian arranged lately for his fat sons:

I wouldn't be entirely surprised now if he would sacrificed these poor guys in some mountainous altar. Everything to prove he is true Chechen dzigit and is not afraid of ghosts of Duduayev and Basaiev (he is, btw.)

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Because Prigozhin is still Kremlin's point man, not King Under the Mountain with separate kingdom like Kadyrov. He does what Putin tell him to do, and despite apparent popularity among "non-certified" nationalists he is reasonable enough not to go at odds with regular military. Clearly Putin does not want it; note that open rivalry between factions we saw circa 2-3 weeks ago seems to be pacified for now. Or rather it gone into underground again due to effectively silencing main milbloggers.

 

Speaking of Kadyrov...see what this barbarian arranged lately for his fat sons:

I wouldn't be entirely surprised now if he would sacrificed these poor guys in some mountainous altar. Everything to prove he is true Chechen dzigit and is not afraid of ghosts of Duduayev and Basaiev (he is, btw.)

Let us not besmirch the Durin's line w comparisons to these monsters.  

What is that video showing?  who are the prisoners?  This is so totally staged but what is going on?

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Let us not besmirch the Durin's line w comparisons to these monsters.  

What is that video showing?  who are the prisoners?  This is so totally staged but what is going on?

Ukrainian POW's, reportedly taken personally by his oldest son on the frontline. They are presented to Kadyrov as a gift from son to father, in manner of traditional Caucasian rites of passage to manhood. There was also entire genre of TikTok videos lately showing his several sons "fighting" in Ukraine, including taking several prisoners with insignia of AirAssault forces.

Really, if one view old interviews with Ichkerian field commanders like Basaiev, it strucks how normal and down-to earth persons they were compared to Ramzan. Even Chechen Islamists start to look like fairly reasonable guys compared to this dickhead.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

A surprising amount of truth on Russian TV.

[danfrodo]

26 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ukrainian POW's, reportedly taken personally by his oldest son on the frontline. They are presented to Kadyrov as a gift from son to father, in manner of traditional Caucasian rites of passage to manhood. There was also entire genre of TikTok videos lately showing his several sons "fighting" in Ukraine, including taking several prisoners with insignia of AirAssault forces.

Really, if one view old interviews with Ichkerian field commanders like Basaiev, it strucks how normal and down-to earth persons they were compared to Ramzan. Even Chechen Islamists start to look like fairly reasonable guys compared to this dickhead.

I am hoping he dies a very bad death in some power struggle. Soon. This is disgusting.

I wonder how much the sons had to pay to buy those two poor UKR soldiers?  If they even are UKR soldiers.  They certainly didn't take prisoners themselves.

[Huba]

There's some real move towards confiscating frozen RU assets (estimated at $300B) and using it for financing Ukraine (tweets are from a convenient UA aggregator, but it was reported by various more reliable sources too):

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's some real move towards confiscating frozen RU assets (estimated at $300B) and using it for financing Ukraine (tweets are from a convenient UA aggregator, but it was reported by various more reliable sources too):

 

Excellent news!

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder how much the sons had to pay to buy those two poor UKR soldiers?  If they even are UKR soldiers.  They certainly didn't take prisoners themselves.

There were videos at Telegram several days ago  when they posted with prisoners, so it is possible entire show is real to an extent. They were at Mariupol for photoops; they also could see some shooting in perhaps Zaporhizhia region, under eye of one of main field commanders:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBM1C0plRWg

 

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Elvis is crashed out snoring after a drunken binge with the Eagles at 6 and 0. We have a buy week so he’ll have a chance to sober up and thrash you canucks. 

Righteous celebration! And he’ll have a long time to recuperate. Eagles earned a pass this weekend and will be gunning for 7-0 on the 30th. FLY, EAGLES, FLY!

[Harmon Rabb]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's some real move towards confiscating frozen RU assets (estimated at $300B) and using it for financing Ukraine (tweets are from a convenient UA aggregator, but it was reported by various more reliable sources too):

 

We criticize Putin a lot here but he really could be generous under the right circumstances. First he supplies the Ukrainian military with all of those tanks and now he will be handing over billions of dollars to help Ukraine financially.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the updates.

It seems that the Bakhmut situation has largely remained as it has for months now.  The Russians continue to take ground very slowly and at great cost.  Ukraine is unable to stop or reverse the trend, just maintain the status quo.  The thing is Russia has been doing this for months now and the result is that even the paltry meters per day advances have added up over time to the extent that they are finally entering Bakhmut.

This whole Bakhmut battle is... fascinating?  I guess that's the word for it.  At the strategic level this is one of the dumbest things Russia has done since it decided to invade.  Whatever possible military value Bakhmut offered Russia was made irrelevant months ago, yet the Russian's are pouring desperately needed resources into trying to take it.

It's even worse than it looks because Wagner's troops are supposedly some of the best that Russia has.  Instead of using them as a sort of elite shock force to blunt Ukrainian advances, where they very likely would cause Ukraine serious headaches, they're not even a distraction for Ukraine.  At best they are an annoyance.

It boggles my mind that so much practical need is deliberately being ignored so that this Bahkmut fight can continue.  Whatever lessons Russia has managed to learn in this war, not wasting precious resources on pointless political exercises is something they seem stubbornly unwilling to accept.

Steve

Steve, you did know about the Ukrainian hack of their Bakhmut map? They replaced the real Victory Points label with a new label with 4x the real number of VP number. 

[Beleg85]

Short video about UA soldiers harassing Russians thanks to lighter 120 mm mortars:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRIfiKuXHAc

And strangly chill-outed Ukrainian tanker; notably, it seems 30 Brg. is also fighting in Bakhmut area (MilitaryLand maps seem to be old):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3TgkqSJFm8

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This begs the question... should CM have some sort of way to distinguish a unit that is fragile when attacking but not when defending?

Isn't this overthinking the problem? Generally, in a scenario, there is an 'attacker' and a 'defender', defined by their resources which should at least somewhat relate to their specific mission objectives.

If you want staunch defenders; easy. Strictly limit their physical resources and dial up their mental resources. They won't have enough stuff to sweep the board, but will be resilient enough to hold in place and will be able to conduct limited local counter attacks (retake-a-single-building kind of thing), which is fully part of an effective defence.

If you want ****ty attackers; easy. Dial up their physical resources (more squads, more support weapons, more AFVs) and dial down their mental resources (morale, leadership).

It is, I think, unlikely that you'd have a situation where you'd have a blob of resources that you - as designer - want to both defend and conduct large scale attacks in the same scenario. I mean ... it's /possible/, but almost invariably leads to over-large and unwieldy scenarios which don't really work for reasons quite apart from the lack of a specific morale setting.

Campaigns are a different beast though - it'd be plausible over the course of a campaign to have a unit which attacks poorly but defends well. But even that can be addressed with the tools at hand.

Edit: meeting engagements aren't really an exception, since in that case both sides are - overall - required to attack, or at least advance from their starting position. So here you can just use 'dial up numbers, dial down quality' approach as if it were a regular attack/defend scenario.

Edited October 21, 2022 by JonS

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

I do, however, draw the line at grenade launchers in Kindergarten:

Where do you stand on body armor?

 

Saddens me greatly there's a need for this.

[NamEndedAllen]

51 minutes ago, Huba said:

There's some real move towards confiscating frozen RU assets (estimated at $300B) and using it for financing Ukraine (tweets are from a convenient UA aggregator, but it was reported by various more reliable sources too):

 

Well DUH! Ukraine is PART OF RUSSIA. Or at least large parts of it. So says the President of Russia. Only safe and secure to transfer to Kyiv and not a Oblast capitol since for some reason Russia is exploding lots of their own areas.

Maybe satire, but in this very real case it has far more credibility and factual basis than most of everything Russia announces.

 

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There is real vinery "Artway", which specialized on sparcling wines production by classical Champenois technology since 1950: https://artwinery.com.ua/en

Bottles keep in alabaster adits on 72 m under surface. Vinery get a grape in southern oblasts of Ukraine

This should definitelly go into Briefing part if anybody will ever make CM campaign from these battles.

 

Video from Kherson, soldiers claim Russians move out heavy armour. Could be their rationalization, though. Also, at the beggining they show captured "orkish rifle":

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85