How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

WSS had a clear ideology, very distinctly found, formed and tied to Hitler personally. He was its emotional and ideological center of gravity. Himmler had operational control, but Hitler had trumps when it came to loyalty. 

Its this difference that I'm highlighting

Good point.  The core difference between WSS and Wagner is the leader of the "private army" in question.  Himmler (and Göring) were well chosen as they would never do anything on their own, but Prigozhin is the type to be ambitious beyond a 2nd in command job description.

As for the competing resources and inter service rivalries for resources and prestige, there's more similar between Hitler's choices and Putin's.  These choices seem to be a necessary ingredient for autocratic states, but they sure come at a terrible price when fighting a war.

Steve

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Eduard Shandura, commander of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, killed by sniper on the Kherson front:

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Clearer view of the road surface damage at the edge of the blast site on the Kerch bridge:

 

Anybody know where I can get the original pictures?  You know, for my photo scrapbook on Russian Bridges

I did find these nice ones:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2018/4-october-photos-section-of-kerch-bridge-collapsed-into-water

Looks like one of the two intact spans slipped off and is now fully in the water along with the two pieces of the split span.

Shows how shallow this section of the straight is.

[Edit -  whoops!  The pictures I linked to were from an accident during construction in 2018.  I forgot all about it!]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6243169/Section-Putins-new-bridge-linking-Russia-annexed-Crimea-COLLAPSES-attached.html

Steve

 

[dan/california]

About a minute in there is a shot of an engine block on a rebuild stand. Every bolt on it is rusted to the point of seizing, stripping, snapping. or the ever popular more than one. You can figure an an hour per bolt for a SKILLED person to sort that out. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

About a minute in there is a shot of an engine block on a rebuild stand. Every bolt on it is rusted to the point of seizing, stripping, snapping. or the ever popular more than one. You can figure an an hour per bolt for a SKILLED person to sort that out. 

This is the fun of Russian propaganda.  The weak minded and ill informed might think this is impressive.  The rest of us look at it and think "oh boy, this is hilarious!"

Steve

[acrashb]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

About a minute in there is a shot of an engine block on a rebuild stand. Every bolt on it is rusted to the point of seizing, stripping, snapping. or the ever popular more than one. You can figure an an hour per bolt for a SKILLED person to sort that out. 

As telling, after they chat with the female factory worker, there is no Western handshake / grip-and-grin / thank you for your hard work, the people inspecting just turn their backs on her and carry on talking.  Culture.  And the guy operating the high-tech laser cutter isn't wearing safety glasses  in spite of sparks flying.  

[Sojourner]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

About a minute in there is a shot of an engine block on a rebuild stand. Every bolt on it is rusted to the point of seizing, stripping, snapping. or the ever popular more than one. You can figure an an hour per bolt for a SKILLED person to sort that out. 

It appears they're not hindered by workplace safety requirements, that should speed things up.

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, Mattias said:

Ok team, what is your take on this. 

 

I was listening to the "The Daily" podcast of today, under the headline "A Bridge, a Bomb and Putin's revenge" from the New York Times. Normally I only listen to them for US internal political issues, but I made an exception. When the 10th of October retaliatory attacks were discussed, there was some gnashing of teeth and doomsday talk about the potential impact on the Ukrainian moral. Not overly much, but well in line with many of the ill-informed and nervous ”maybe we should try for peace instead crowd”. That made me think… What actually did happen on the 10th, and how bad was it really?

 

Sure Lives were lost, people were most probably crippled and definitely traumatized for life – Horrible injury incurred.

But was it a majestic reaction from the war gods of the east, taking their toll for the Ukrainian insolence of bombing the Crimean bridge?

 

I made a rough calculation:

  
83 missiles (Kh 101, Kh 555, Kalibr, Iskander, S-300 and Torndo S) were supposedly used, as well as 17 Shahid UAV. 

The average warhead size of these weapons is 324 kg, for a total mass of 32 400 kg.

Out of these, 43 were reportedly shot down, reducing the mass delivered by 13 932 kg

For a total of 18 468 kg

As I understand it, that is the equivalent of the bomb load of three (3) A-10 warthogs – if you consider that bombs probably weigh more than missile warheads.

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Is that a massive response to a strategic attack on the jugular of the southern front? 

3 single seat attack aircraft worth of ordnance… Will even the sustained attack of such a force do anything to dent the moral/cohesion/effectiveness/capacity of the Ukrainian nation?

On both account, I think not. Especially since the best of russian missile technology seem to be less accurate than even dumb bombs dropped by an A-10.

Furthermore, I saw somewhere that the total shelf cost for the 10 October attack was 350 million $. Is that money well spent? 

All things considered, Putin certainly managed to catch the headlines… Putting the perceived russian military might back on the agenda. But almost completely unjustified, it seems to me…

 

So, what are your thoughts, have I misunderstood this? Should Putin's gestures have anyone really shaking in their boots?

A good comparison is the German V weapon campaign in 1944-1945.  A ton of effort and cash expended to achieve a physical effect on the targets that was comparable or less than conventional bombing during the Battle of Britain.  The value of the campaign to the Nazi regime was to reinforce a myth of superiority and to reassure the populace that the enemy could be struck despite the grim battlefield situation.

[Battlefront.com]

Hmm.  These images might show a downward impact on the side of the surviving span next to the one that split.  I can't think of what else it could be other than that.  And if it is a downward impact, then I don't think the truck bomb is looking as likely.

1. Based on the hole in the bridge, the explosion happened almost dead center of the Crimean bound span.  The truck seems to have been firmly in the outbound lane, which is a little off center of the hole.  This doesn't bother me too much as the force of the explosion there was massive and materials can do strange things.  However it is something to note.
2. Some 5m or so from the damaged section of the inbound lane of the Russian span the inside edge of the Russian bound span is crumpled downward for about... 6-8m.  It has a definite center of depression.
3. If there was a truck explosion it would have been centered maybe 4m above the surface of the road.  The edges of the bridge is about 5m away and relatively flush with the road surface.  I don't think it is likely that the source of the explosion would be high enough to cause that sort of deformation.  I'd think the pressure would "roll" onto the other span instead of "digging in".
4. Note that the guardrails in these pictures are replacements.  The original sections were ripped off.

It appears to me, the semi-amateur DBA guy, that there was a downward explosion centered on the middle of the Crimean span.  The point of detonation would be significantly higher than 4m, which is roughly the maximum for the truck scenario.  I'm thinking more like 10m, which indicates an airburst.  And that indicates a missile.

However, it all hinges on point #3.  If there is an explanation, and there very well could be, then we're back to not being able to rule the truck scenario out or in.

Thoughts?

Steve

[Artkin]

If it was a missile it must have been something pretty advanced, I imagine "dumb" ordinance would have smashed right through the bridge and into the water before it exploded, considering the velocity it was carrying. If it exploded on impact the road would have been totally annihilated. I didn't see chunks of asphalt all over the road. The footbridge in Kiev for instance was completely covered with it.

I didn't know they had missiles with airburst tech, that's something new to consider.

The Russians would've seen a missile coming in by radar, no? Unless they're lying, or a new stealthy missile has been developed. Which would totally make sense given the advancements in AA.

But then again, do they have an ablative coating that can survive a high velocity missile flying for that long in the lower atmosphere? In that case a stealthy cruise missile makes the most sense to me.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Artkin

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambassadors-annual-conference-2022-opening-speech-high-representative-josep-borrell_en

 

Read it, read the whole thing, then ponder what I said a few posts ago about how it would be good to increase ammo production.

Thanks so much for linking this, Oh Grand Dan Of California! Some pithy portraits of the state of affairs and the consequences in the West:

“I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security.”

AND THIS:
“You - the United States - take care of our security. You - China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there. “

THE UNCERTAINTY AND FULCRUMS FOR RUSSIA:

“Inside our countries, there is a radical shift, and the radical right is increasing in our democracies, democratically – it is the choice of the people, it is not an imposition from any power. It is the people who go and vote here and there. I am not going to blame anyone, but you have in mind what I am talking about. The radical right is increasing their grasp in European politics.”

“our cooperation with the United States and my friend Tony [Anthony] Blinken [US Secretary of State]: we are in a fantastic relationship and cooperating a lot; who knows what will happen two years from now, or even in November? What would have happened if, instead of [Joe] Biden, it would have been [Donald] Trump or someone like him in the White House? What would have been the answer of the United States to the war in Ukraine? What would have been our answer in a different situation? ”

BIG PICTURE HEARTS AND MINDS FINALE:

“authoritarianism is, unhappily, developing a lot. Not just China, not just Russia. There is an authoritarian trend. Sometimes, they are still wearing the democracy suit, but they are no longer democracies. There are some who are not democracies at all – they do not even take the pity to look like democracies.”

“This is a battle that we are not winning because we are not fighting enough. We do not understand that it is a fight. Apart from conquering a space, you have to conquer the minds. The Russians and the Chinese are very good in that. They are industrialising, they have [troll] farms systematically repeating, reaching everybody in the world - once and again, once and again. We do not have a Russia Today or a Sputnik, not even Radio Liberty. But I think that all of you have to do much more on communication.”

 

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thoughts?

I'm leaning towards the missile hypothesis too, but I wonder why would the missile be set to airburst instead of point detonation? What would be the advantage here?
And pardon me if this was already tackled (I assume it was, but didn't follow this part of the discussion closely, and boy there's a lot of pages of it...) but how on Earth did they manage to hit a moving train with a ballistic missile? I mean, it could be a lucky coincidence, but come on...

[Pete Wenman]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'm leaning towards the missile hypothesis too, but I wonder why would the missile be set to airburst

I have no knowledge in this field  whatsoever, but what if it was a thermobaric warhead. More blast for size, and a pressure wave to bounce the bridge sections off their mountings?

Plausable ?

[Huba]

Just now, Pete Wenman said:

I have no knowledge in this field  whatsoever, but what if it was a thermobaric warhead. More blast for size, and a pressure wave to bounce the bridge sections off their mountings?

Plausable ?

And it would explain the airburst, and general lack of splinter damage on the photographs. It also rules out the ATACMS and basically anything West made.

[Artkin]

Wouldnt a thermobaric bomb have a small delay after delivery and before exploding? I'm unsure if there are different types, but I'm referencing a fuel-air explosion.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Artkin

[FancyCat]

Ukraine has no access to such a missile no? Thread on it being a VBIED. Im most concerned about where Ukraine would get such a missile.

 

[Haiduk]

Interpreting of last Mashovets posts

During last 5 days Russians have been crossing to active preventing of further advaning of AFU on Svatove - Kreminna section. They are trying to win a time for more solid defense establishing and want to seize more advantageous forward positions

NW from Svatove Russians are counter-attacking in area Kolomyichykha village with forces about 1,5 BTG of 1st GTA, mainly consisting of 27th MRB units

W and SW from Svatone Russians countering UKR troops on the line Raihorodka - Karmazynivka and also on direction Krasnorichynske - Makiivka. Here Russian forces consists of mainly of 3 BTGs of 254th MRR of 144th MRD and 55th MRB (moutnain), elements of some Spetsnaz brigade (likely 16th, but maybe 3rf too), elements of reservists volunteer battalions BARS-13 and BARS-16

Most active attempts not only to delay UKR forces, but even to retake the line Terny - Torske, enemy has conducted 4-5 days ago, atatcking of Terny and yesterday, shifted attack of Torske. Initially they have thrown forward 6th assault detachment of Wagner PMC, completely consisting of former jailed - 110 men. They attacked by two groups per 40-45 men with recon groups ahead, but anyway were spotted by UKR troops and shelled with mortars and artillery. Later Russians moved forward 2nd echelone - reinforced company of 752nd MRR of 3rd MRD, two platoons of BARS-13 reservists, and a rifle company of DPR mobiks (on the map mistakingly depicted as LPR) from 119th rifle regiment. Ememy had too small number of armor (likely only in 752nd MRR company and likely abot 50 % of full composition), but actively used artullery and mortars fire to support own troops. Russian attack was repelled, Wagner assauult unit lost about 30 % of personnel, at least one jailed was captured. He told about on their section soon will arrive one more assault detachment from the former jailed and about 30 % of personnel have high motivation to fight. Yesterday assault of Torske also was repelled, though Russians likekly could reach outskirts of the village - one soldier wrote "Russians are really in Torske, but only dead"

If we will take whole sector Svatove - Siveroidonetsk, Russians formed here two conditional groupings - "northern" (Svatove area) and "southern" (Kreminna - Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk).

Total their defense consists of 10-11 BTGs in first line and 6-7 BTGs in second line as tactical reserve. 4-5 more BTGs are in deep rear on replenishing.

Theese forces are from 2nd, 20th, 41st CAAs, 1st TA and elements of one Spetsanz brigade (16th or 3rd): 2 BTGs of 21st MRB, 2 BTGs of 30th MRB, 2 BTGs (remains) of 200th MRB, 1 BTG of 55th MRB (mountain), BTG of 27th MRB

Also here 2 BTGs of 4th MRB of LPR, 4 rifle battalions of mobiks from two rifle regiment (one of them 119th rifle regimeny of DPR), 7 battalions of LPR Territorial defense and mobiks, 6 detachments of different BARS and regional voulunteer battalins (total strength is about of 1,5 standard battalions)

Need to know, that Russian BTGs after Balakliya disaster in real in better case are "2 company-sized" or "reinforced company-sized". BTGs also lost from 30 % and up to 50-60 % of own vehicles

Russian grouping wich covers remained part of Kharkiv oblast and border area (Tavilzhanka - Troitske - Nyzhnia Duvanka) has 6-7 BTG: 2 BTGs of 55th MRB, 1 BTG of 15th MRB, 1 BTG of 252nd MRR of 3rd MRD, remains of BTG of 200th MRB,  remains of 59th TR of 144th MRD, combined battalion - remains of 18th coastal MRD of 11 Army Corps 

   

 

[Artkin]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine has no access to such a missile no? Thread on it being a VBIED. Im most concerned about where Ukraine would get such a missile.

 

Something interesting to note in this video is how everything in that explosion is directed toward the left of the frame. Look at all the molten pieces of whatever flying to the left. Nothing is flying to the right.

[Zeleban]

I remember that someone on the forum said that the open placement of anti-tank mines on the road is pointless ...

[Mattias]

2 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

A good comparison is the German V weapon campaign in 1944-1945. 

Building on that analogy russia dropped the equivalent of five Lancaster bomb loads on the 10th, five - over all of Ukraine.
 

A five bomber raid was nothing to write home about back then, nor is it today.

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I remember that someone on the forum said that the open placement of anti-tank mines on the road is pointless ...

No this is the Russian mine clearing program.  Again 100% success rate!!

[Huba]

33 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Wouldnt a thermobaric bomb have a small delay after delivery and before exploding? I'm unsure if there are different types, but I'm referencing a fuel-air explosion.

I don't think it is noticeable to a human eye, even less so for a crappy CCTV camera. The vids that show it are AFAIK all in slow motion.

26 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine has no access to such a missile no? Thread on it being a VBIED. Im most concerned about where Ukraine would get such a missile.

 

The idea is that they managed to set up  low level production of the Hrim somewhere, probably abroad. Pure conjecture of course, but I find it believable. We'll get to know if/when the attack is repeated I guess.

In other news, it looks like Musk was visited by the black helicopters and got the talk:

And, UA is getting more SAMs - I bet there more or less on Osa level, could be really useful against the low-end threats like Shaheds:

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

Musk may be a rich man and CEO but a lot of his work is reliant on defense contracts, so one can assume this a coordinated action by the U.S, Ukraine and Musk to get back on track.

 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

What were we all saying about a thousand pages ago about 'digging in like ticks'?

If Putin can make this 'low tech' war work well enough to avoid losing further large swathes of these lands (other than Kherson bridgehead) to the UA through the winter, that's enough of a 'win' for him to sell to his numb, glum populace. He has 'gathered the Russian lands' of Novorossiya and repelled NATOUkronazi aggression.

Expect him and his foreign tools to push ever harder for peace talks, while also trying different pressure tactics on Ukraine and Europe: power grids, transport, cyber, etc.

....That is, if his battered army and economy can sustain the upcoming siege.  Our thesis here, of course, is that they can't, and that each attempt will dissolve into a sh*tshow even quicker than the last....

****

Keenly awaiting the next surprise out of Ukraine's bag of tricks! 

I am still guessing that it involves seizing air superiority and eviscerating RU artillery in the land bridge in 4 days of precision guided 'shock and awe', followed by a dozen brigades relentlessly blasting and hacking the best regular formations RU has left into doomed, unsuppliable pockets.

All available indications are that winter trench warfare are going to result in MASSIVE casualties from trench foot, frostbite, and so on for the Russians.

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Eduard Shandura, commander of the 205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, killed by sniper on the Kherson front:

 

Give that sniper a medal!

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interpreting of last Mashovets posts

During last 5 days Russians have been crossing to active preventing of further advaning of AFU on Svatove - Kreminna section. They are trying to win a time for more solid defense establishing and want to seize more advantageous forward positions

NW from Svatove Russians are counter-attacking in area Kolomyichykha village with forces about 1,5 BTG of 1st GTA, mainly consisting of 27th MRB units

W and SW from Svatone Russians countering UKR troops on the line Raihorodka - Karmazynivka and also on direction Krasnorichynske - Makiivka. Here Russian forces consists of mainly of 3 BTGs of 254th MRR of 144th MRD and 55th MRB (moutnain), elements of some Spetsnaz brigade (likely 16th, but maybe 3rf too), elements of reservists volunteer battalions BARS-13 and BARS-16

Most active attempts not only to delay UKR forces, but even to retake the line Terny - Torske, enemy has conducted 4-5 days ago, atatcking of Terny and yesterday, shifted attack of Torske. Initially they have thrown forward 6th assault detachment of Wagner PMC, completely consisting of former jailed - 110 men. They attacked by two groups per 40-45 men with recon groups ahead, but anyway were spotted by UKR troops and shelled with mortars and artillery. Later Russians moved forward 2nd echelone - reinforced company of 752nd MRR of 3rd MRD, two platoons of BARS-13 reservists, and a rifle company of DPR mobiks (on the map mistakingly depicted as LPR) from 119th rifle regiment. Ememy had too small number of armor (likely only in 752nd MRR company and likely abot 50 % of full composition), but actively used artullery and mortars fire to support own troops. Russian attack was repelled, Wagner assauult unit lost about 30 % of personnel, at least one jailed was captured. He told about on their section soon will arrive one more assault detachment from the former jailed and about 30 % of personnel have high motivation to fight. Yesterday assault of Torske also was repelled, though Russians likekly could reach outskirts of the village - one soldier wrote "Russians are really in Torske, but only dead"

If we will take whole sector Svatove - Siveroidonetsk, Russians formed here two conditional groupings - "northern" (Svatove area) and "southern" (Kreminna - Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk).

Total their defense consists of 10-11 BTGs in first line and 6-7 BTGs in second line as tactical reserve. 4-5 more BTGs are in deep rear on replenishing.

Theese forces are from 2nd, 20th, 41st CAAs, 1st TA and elements of one Spetsanz brigade (16th or 3rd): 2 BTGs of 21st MRB, 2 BTGs of 30th MRB, 2 BTGs (remains) of 200th MRB, 1 BTG of 55th MRB (mountain), BTG of 27th MRB

Also here 2 BTGs of 4th MRB of LPR, 4 rifle battalions of mobiks from two rifle regiment (one of them 119th rifle regimeny of DPR), 7 battalions of LPR Territorial defense and mobiks, 6 detachments of different BARS and regional voulunteer battalins (total strength is about of 1,5 standard battalions)

Need to know, that Russian BTGs after Balakliya disaster in real in better case are "2 company-sized" or "reinforced company-sized". BTGs also lost from 30 % and up to 50-60 % of own vehicles

Russian grouping wich covers remained part of Kharkiv oblast and border area (Tavilzhanka - Troitske - Nyzhnia Duvanka) has 6-7 BTG: 2 BTGs of 55th MRB, 1 BTG of 15th MRB, 1 BTG of 252nd MRR of 3rd MRD, remains of BTG of 200th MRB,  remains of 59th TR of 144th MRD, combined battalion - remains of 18th coastal MRD of 11 Army Corps 

   

 

So the russians are finally paying attention In Northern Luhansk. We eagerly await the AFU revealing where they are NOT, paying attention.

[FancyCat]