How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Two cruise missiles impact this morning nearby TETs-5 (fifth thermal power plant) on southern outskirt of Kyiv. First missile likely inflicted damage, because hit switchgear site. Second missile likely hit some auxiliary facility. Missiles came from southwestern direction.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1579561278234046465

Thread about state of Belarussian military; it lacks info about internal struggles within regime, though.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

We have worse result in western Ukraine, likely because a lack of AD assets, pulled out from there to cover more priority areas. 

One of successful examples - UKR fighter jet shot down today two cruise missiles over Chernivtsi oblast. Alas almost all missiles, targeted L'viv, Ternopil' and Khmelnitskyi oblast reached own targets or at least hit surface with detonation

Technically Russia severly violated airspace of sovereign country- I see some Romanian/Moldovan direction experts say that Moldavians were outraged and even explicitly stated that if they would have AA, they would use it to shoot down the rockets. I wouldn't be suprised if Chisinau would work on procuring some AA sets from NATO soon...

[FancyCat]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/collaborators-or-compatriots

Article on how reintegration back into Ukraine will go for the regions occupied 2022. Some choice quotes from it. Accompanying it is a tweet thread which i will repost in total. I hope Ukraine, and I think Zelensky seems like a good figure to emphasize a peace and integration process that will be faithful to IHL and the spirit of from the article "Ukraine should avoid rapid blanket punishments of whole categories of alleged collaborators, preserving the right of appeal and considering extenuating circumstances. Administered fairly, such a process can reinforce accountability, fairness, and rule of law in regions emerging from Russia’s nihilistic occupation." 

Quote

This is excellent news for Ukraine, and for Western allies. But it also poses a problem for Kyiv. In October, Zelensky declared that residents of occupied areas who had been loyal to Ukraine had nothing to fear. “Our approach has always been and remains clear and fair: if a person did not serve the occupiers and did not betray Ukraine, then there is no reason to consider such a person a collaborator,” he announced. But determining who is a collaborator may be more complex than Zelensky has acknowledged. There is a spectrum of culpability, from outright treason to passive participation. Zelensky will need to consider what balance of punitive and reintegrationist measures are appropriate in regions such as the Donbas, where a significant proportion of public servants remained on the job during the occupation. These are the same regions that the Ukrainian government has been working the hardest to more fully integrate since Russia’s first invasion in 2014, with some notable success. A well-calibrated approach to the collaborator question will be crucial to that process going forward.

This reaction disoriented the Russian invaders. According to Mykhailo Minakov, a senior adviser at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, the Russian government attempted to counter this resistance by employing the approach it used against the recalcitrant population of Chechnya, the Russian Caucasus province that tried to break away in the 1990s and in the first decade of this century. Russian forces used tear gas and live ammunition against protesters and abducted pro-Ukrainian activists, army veterans, and their families. Some were indefinitely detained; others were killed and buried in mass graves now being uncovered in liberated cities such as Izium. During this period of intense violence, Russia left open escape routes to allow other pro-Ukrainian residents to “self-deport” from the occupied territories. The exodus was enormous, and some occupied communities lost half their residents. Meanwhile, the most sympathetic locals were rewarded with multiple Russian holidays and public events. A Soviet cargo cult brought back the symbols of alleged former glory. Moscow sought to convince the remaining residents that this was their new normal. Billboards proclaiming “Russia is here forever!” made the point explicit.

That may trap some individuals whose motivation to stay on the job was not ideological. Almut Rochowanski is an international peace-building activist who has worked since 2014 with women activists in eastern Ukraine who support civilians in occupied territories. Several of her contacts claim that some teachers and social workers remained on the job because they feared that no one else could serve victims of domestic violence and rape, two crimes that are prevalent in the war zone. In the words of one activist they view such public servants as “part of their team” and not agents of the enemy. They advise against othering everyone who remained in the occupied territories.

That said, these women are advocating for the punishment of the local administrators who have collaborated with Russian occupiers and the organizers of the latest referendum. Calls for accountability will only grow in the aftermath of reports about torture chambers and mass graves found after the liberation of Izium and other cities. Ukrainians will not tolerate a return to the status quo.

Quote

Building on my piece on collaborators and sympathizers in #Russia'n occupied territories of #Ukraine for @ForeignAffairs, I wanted to share seemingly simple but very important thought from a local administrator in #Luhansk region who fled occupation. 1/11

Natalia Petrenko ran the Shulhynka consolidated community and remained loyal to UA even when town was overrun by RU tanks. She told me a few months ago "The best way to prevent collaboration by local officials is to evacuate them in time." At first I thought... well, yeah. 2/11 

But what she's getting at is this: in a lot of cases the very same teacher or town clerk can be a heroic, sympathetic figure maintaining critical services for her neighbors in displacement and keeping alive the flame of Ukrainian self-government or...3/11 

...a cursed collaborator who knuckled under to the Russians and became a cog in their occupation machine. Quite often it depends what conditions her government was able to create for her. Communities in rural north Luhansk generally didn't have time to organize evacuation...4/11 

...and they have some of highest relative rates of bureaucratic collaboration in all occupied territories. But cities that UA army fought fiercely to hold (Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Popasna) while being ultimately destroyed were able to evacuate a core of public servants... 5/11 

And today they operate in displacement, providing significant services to scattered residents. 90% of teachers in war-ravaged Kreminna evacuated to Rivne in western UA and are teaching 80% of their displaced pupils there, in person. 6/11 

And yet Kreminna elected an unconcealed RU sympathizer in 2020 to run the community! It was not a poster child for patriotism, but in fact its public servants are doing a hell of a job in a tough situation because the state created conditions in which they could do so. 7/11 

Meanwhile northern rural communities had more defined Ukrainian identity than the cities, but when trapped almost instantly in RU occupation many public officials slipped into the collaboration machine. In the end a lot of loyal and disloyal officials are interchangeable. 8/11 

A major role of the state is to provide the conditions in which it's easy for a citizen to be loyal and law-abiding. In times of crisis this gets a lot harder but even more important. The Ukrainian state has both successes and failures in this regard in 2022. 9/11 

Of course there are individuals with willpower + character to remain loyal even under occupation boot. Most of the teachers in Petrenko's village did! But no state should bank on all its citizens being such tough cookies. States must create the right habitat for loyalty. 10/11 

Anyway, that's been rattling around in my head a lot of late as I've been writing about collaborators and patriots. END 

 

 

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The War That Russia Already Lost (msn.com)

Huh. I kinda like Master and Margherita.

There is a very amusing O'Brien article ('what Cruz doesn't understand') linked to from that one. I can hear the heads of manly men popping all round the world

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by JonS

[Kinophile]

Fascinating article,, thank you

[Battlefront.com]

British head of GCHQ (spy guys) says that Russia's ability to wage war is "exhausted".  He specifically states that they're running out of ammo:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63207771?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

And to think that knowledgeable people were seriously arguing that Russia could win a long war and that time was on their side.  Yesh.

Steve

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

British head of GCHQ (spy guys) says that Russia's ability to wage war is "exhausted".  He specifically states that they're running out of ammo:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63207771?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

And to think that knowledgeable people were seriously arguing that Russia could win a long war and that time was on their side.  Yesh.

Steve

The following came out about 1 week after the Putin/Xi meeting. North Korea depends entirely on Chinese permission on a number of levels for its existence. You can deduce from this that China emphatically stomped on any help going to Moscow. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/north-korea-denies-supplying-weapons-or-ammunition-to-russia

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The following came out about 1 week after the Putin/Xi meeting. North Korea depends entirely on Chinese permission on a number of levels for its existence. You can deduce from this that China emphatically stomped on any help going to Moscow. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/north-korea-denies-supplying-weapons-or-ammunition-to-russia

So maybe China thinking a peaceful, stable world is good for China?  Seems so.  

[LongLeftFlank]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And to think that knowledgeable people were seriously arguing that Russia could win a long war and that time was on their side.  Yesh.

Well, the hypothesis running around the pro-RU apologists is that with winter approaching the Ukrainian power grid is being targeted to put additional strain on the economy and the cities.

This is expected to result in a wave of additional refugees flooding into Europe.

While Ukraine society is already on a war economy footing, the people are used to cold winters, and outages and rationing are baked into expectations, it is true that this will not be an easy time for anybody.

So we should still pray for the early and complete destruction of the Russian armies in Kherson and Zaporizhye.

[chuckdyke]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

British head of GCHQ (spy guys) says that Russia's ability to wage war is "exhausted".  He specifically states that they're running out of ammo:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63207771?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

And to think that knowledgeable people were seriously arguing that Russia could win a long war and that time was on their side.  Yesh.

Steve

If their ability to wage war is exhausted, it is about time to stop the indiscriminate killing of civilians. Wage war on Russia with devastating consequences and threat their present assault on civilians as you would with a nuclear strike. I am thoroughly sick of the perpetual chess thumping here. Defending Ukraine starts by defending their civilians. The UN is waging war on Ukrainian civilians. A member of their security council wages war on this nation and all it can say oh you naughty boy and to the Ukraine nothing we can do because Russia has the right to veto. 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The following came out about 1 week after the Putin/Xi meeting. North Korea depends entirely on Chinese permission on a number of levels for its existence. You can deduce from this that China emphatically stomped on any help going to Moscow. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/north-korea-denies-supplying-weapons-or-ammunition-to-russia

Heh... and those same people that argued that Russia could win a long war were also the same ones saying that China was going to team up with Russia to stick it to the West.  It is pretty clear that isn't the case and that the opposing view, that China wants a stable and reliable partnership with the West for its own self interests, were spot on correct.

Yup, the recent meetings with Xi and Modi pretty much went as expected by those who really understand how the world works.  Put crudely, money talks and BS walks.  Putin squandered 20+ years on militaristic masturbation instead of investing in his country's economy.  Pretty clear that strategy didn't work.  Russia is already set back to before 1990s in many ways, yet we haven't even seen the beginning of the decline of Russian power.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Several stationery tanks with volume like tank-car exploded. Also several railway cars were destroyed/damaged and some light facilities burned. 

Depends on how much of the switchgear they fried.

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, the hypothesis running around the pro-RU apologists is that with winter approaching the Ukrainian power grid is being targeted to put additional strain on the economy and the cities.

This is expected to result in a wave of additional refugees flooding into Europe.

While Ukraine society is already on a war economy footing, the people are used to cold winters, and outages and rationing are baked into expectations, it is true that this will not be an easy time for anybody.

So we should still pray for the early and complete destruction of the Russian armies in Kherson and Zaporizhye.

So send a complete set of everything for a U.S. heavy brigade, and watch them smash the Russian army into kindling. The latest round of atrocity videos makes it clear that is less than the ruzzians deserve, a LOT less.

[FancyCat]

The attack on the pedestrian bridge was seemingly meant for the EU Advisory Mission to Ukraine, a law enforcement oriented mission to facilitate EU-UKR integration in policing and rule of law.

I dunno if that is considered a legal target but interesting signal to Ukraine, and the EU. Not sure if that telegram is legit? So telegrams usually claim unit status?

 

[Probus]

IRIS-T SLM almost in Ukraine:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-german-iris-t-slm-air-defense-system-arriving-in-days

I haven't seen anyone bring this up yet but these revenge attacks remind me of The Battle of Britain when Britain accidently bombed a German city instead of a military target.  Germany started attacking British cities and quit focusing on British military targets.  This allowed Britain to win this particular battle.  History seems to repeat itself.

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Probus

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

He specifically states that they're running out of ammo:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63207771?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Good article, keeping that one.  I like the shout-out to China at the bottom.

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

So maybe China thinking a peaceful, stable world is good for China?  Seems so.  

Check the article above, they're on the move and have been for some time.

IMO they aren't supporting Russia because 1) they aren't ready and 2) they have read Sun-Tzu and prefer to win without fighting.  Unlike Putin.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Probus said:

IRIS-T SLM almost in Ukraine:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-german-iris-t-slm-air-defense-system-arriving-in-days

I haven't seen anyone bring this up yet but these revenge attacks remind me of The Battle of Britain when Britain accidently bombed a German city instead of a military target.  Germany started attacking British cities and quit focusing on British military targets.  This allowed Britain to win this particular battle.  History seems to repeat itself.

 

It wasn't accidental, Churchill, had to get the pressure off Fighter Commands airfields, whatever the bill. Perhaps the last time A Western leader made a decision that hard.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Good article, keeping that one.  I like the shout-out to China at the bottom.

Check the article above, they're on the move and have been for some time.

IMO they aren't supporting Russia because 1) they aren't ready and 2) they have read Sun-Tzu and prefer to win without fighting.  Unlike Putin.

If the Russians run into another round of "shell famine", I don't think the ruzzian military or Putin's government would survive.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y0k2ze/incredible_footage_of_gmlrs_strikes_on_russian/

As is the Ukrainian ISR/fires bubble is getting better fast, and the ruzzian's are starting to pay the bill.

[danfrodo]

Cyber attacks at Chicago's Midway and OHare airports today, temporary shutdown.  I have a feeling and a hope that's there's an army of US govt hackers just waiting to jump into action.  Good luck w this Putler.  All the best RU programmers work for silicon valley and CIA, having left your decrepit corrupt rathole country.

[chrisl]

Just now, danfrodo said:

Cyber attacks at Chicago's Midway and OHare airports today, temporary shutdown.  I have a feeling and a hope that's there's an army of US govt hackers just waiting to jump into action.  Good luck w this Putler.  All the best RU programmers work for silicon valley and CIA, having left your decrepit corrupt rathole country.

Apparently LAX, too.  Just a denial-of-service attack that was resolved pretty quickly.

[danfrodo]

I hope we shut down everything.  Banks, electricity, internet, cell phone systems.  If everything else in RU is totally corrupt I would be surprised if their businesses have proper security, backup, & recovery systems.  Not to mention dozens of thousands of their best and brightest have fled over last 6 months.  The only guys left are probably like that knucklehead from the 1st Jurassic Park movie, except w much less talent.

[Battlefront.com]

Short article on the cancellation of the CTSO exercise that was supposed to happen this week:

https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-cancels-csto-military-exercises-belarus-russia/32072105.html

Apparently the host, Kyrgyzstan, didn't want Tajikistan there because of the recent violence between the two.  Armenia didn't want to be there because of Azerbaijan, so they opted out.  Kazakhstan didn't want to show any support for Russia due to the war in Ukraine, so they said they'd not come either.

Yup, having a security organization where the members are in active military conflict with each other doesn't seem to have much of a point!

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... and those same people that argued that Russia could win a long war were also the same ones saying that China was going to team up with Russia to stick it to the West.  It is pretty clear that isn't the case and that the opposing view, that China wants a stable and reliable partnership with the West for its own self interests, were spot on correct.

Yup, the recent meetings with Xi and Modi pretty much went as expected by those who really understand how the world works.  Put crudely, money talks and BS walks.  Putin squandered 20+ years on militaristic masturbation instead of investing in his country's economy.  Pretty clear that strategy didn't work.  Russia is already set back to before 1990s in many ways, yet we haven't even seen the beginning of the decline of Russian power.

Steve

Agree, Steve. I still don’t see how Russia gets out of this. I read with interest and know how WE think it does (in many minds, it may no longer own the female personal pronoun ever again…no mother treats her children as we now see).  I am often reminded of the important warning that, “Past results do not guarantee future returns.” 

After WWII, the non-Axis nations learned the true extent of the absolute horrors to which the two primary Axis subjected their POWs and others. While few foresee a ginormous WWIII and the final fate of Russia resembling the devastated landscapes of Post War Germany and Japan, both those nations have become valued important participants and Allie’s in the world’s civilized community. 

What I cannot foresee is how the eyes of at least 50 nations that are backing Ukraine in so many ways EXCEPT for having their own populations ravaged and in most cases their cities as well will be able to stomach the enormity of more and more mass graves, the dead children, the civilians murdered in cold blood, the attempt at genocide by seizing Ukraine’s children and murdering those who do not profess to loyalty to Russia. Much of these crimes against humanity were committed in WWII as well. But that was a different world than today. And the Allied nations are not themselves experiencing by the millions the killing and being killed, and the knowledge that they too committed crimes well beyond the rules of war. How will the instantaneous evidence in color and sound broadcast worldwide via a hugely more influential media of how Russia has raped and butchered Ukraine be emotionally overcome, without that war experience and self knowledge?  The nations of Europe and America have embraced human rights and compassion far more widely and formally than before and immediately after WWII. Once the spectacle of a determined attempt at the genocide of one of the largest countries in Europe is seen in its fullness, how will the rest of the citizens not on this forum wish to co-exist with Russia? And that does not even begin to consider what may be a snarling, angry humiliated but intact Russia. In their coming internal agonies, so long as it is an intact sovereign people, will it welcome any embrace by those who have drove it down?

Lastly, after WWII we had an instant NEW powerful enemy of democracy - the Soviet Union. That threat, so quickly turning into the threat of nuclear Armageddon without doubt accelerated both the formal and the informal welcome into the community of democratic nations.  It unless we manage to turn China into an equally vivid nightmare of the End Of The World, Russia will not have that wind behind its back. Even so, remember too that Japan has had a very difficult time even simply saying, “I’m sorry” to Korea. 
 

Maybe I am wrong. Maybe today’s people are quickly distracted by the next iPhone, by the next scandal, by the next celebrity breakup to give a good crap about the enormity of what has happened. Maybe the insulation of the world from the reality within Ukraine will do the trick for Russia, and citizens in most nations will not really care about the future relations with Russia  - as we and our circles do. As long as gas prices go back down, and fuel for heating homes and feeding industry is plentiful, let bygones be bygones. But I have a feeling Ukraine’s new voice in the world will not let that happen. They have not only suffered and endured and are overcoming. They have learned a tremendous amount in the course of this war. That includes not only fighting in combat, but for world opinion. And I do believe that voice will ensure that it has a quite large vote in Russia’s future and how the world perceives it.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[FancyCat]

DDoS stuff is pretty low tier I think. Doubt any response is forthcoming.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Short article on the cancellation of the CTSO exercise that was supposed to happen this week:

https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-cancels-csto-military-exercises-belarus-russia/32072105.html

Apparently the host, Kyrgyzstan, didn't want Tajikistan there because of the recent violence between the two.  Armenia didn't want to be there because of Azerbaijan, so they opted out.  Kazakhstan didn't want to show any support for Russia due to the war in Ukraine, so they said they'd not come either.

Yup, having a security organization where the members are in active military conflict with each other doesn't seem to have much of a point!

Steve

The best part of this was the actual name of the exercise - The Indestructible Brotherhood

Even Monty Python wouldn't have come up with that.

[potato4212]

what is the Night vison and thermal optic situation for both sides?

It seems that the special forces on both sides seem well equipped with night vison although the Ukrainians seem to have better top end equipment. how common is night vison in this conflict, and what night vison and thermal optics are in widespread use? I would assume that Ukrainians have a lot of u.s supplied pvs-14s and perhaps some pvs-31s . Do the Ukrainians  have any domestic night vison? What night vison do the Russians use and how does it compare with western kit? Finally how much kit is being bought off the commercial market?