How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm willing to eat crow if I'm wrong, but I still think it was a truck bomb. If you claim it was a missile, I would like to ask two questions:

1: How could one single missile cause such an enormous explosion? An ATACM carries only 250 kilos of explosives. I do not think that is enough to cause this level of damage.

2: If it was a missile, why only ONE missile? There's still plenty of bridge left. Why not strike it again and cut the bridge completely? Did Ukraine only own one single missile?

Here I am now defending the missile hypothesis...

Look at the actual damage that the explosion did - it's not all that much: 

1) buckled one segment of corrugated sheet metal covered with asphalt

2) Blew over some guard rails and light poles

3) Sent some fragments that punctured some rail tank cars and set them on fire.

Gravity actually did most of the work on the road.  The deck is an interesting structure - corrugated (thick) sheet metal on a couple of beams.  It's strong because of the box structures of the beams and deck and the corrugations of the deck.  Crease them and it's incredibly weak.  It's like the heavy weight on an aluminum soda can - the can supports it until you flick the side of the can lightly with your finger, then it collapses.  The explosion creased the beams and deck, pulling on the ends, and gravity  (with some help from the shock wave) took over.

The road surfaces, even near the explosion, all look undamaged except for a little heat darkening.  There aren't pock marks from burning material all over the asphalt. The asphalt didn't catch fire (it does burn).  There aren't even shrapnel marks in the asphalt.

It's a demonstration of engineering that had perfectly fine constraints for its design conditions, but was underconstrained against the extreme conditions that result from getting Ukrainians really angry.

I suppose another argument in favor of a missile would be if they go ahead and finish the remaining three lanes (1 road, 2 rail) tonight.  That would be messaging.

 

 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This is how it should be. However, the affected countries probably have to make the first move of making an international scandal of this. So far Sweden and Germany have been quiet.

Sweden has applied for membership in NATO, but, as far as I know, has not yet been accepted. However, that also means that Sweden is not constrained by Article 5, so they might actually be able to do more than NATO at this point in time if the sabotage occurred on Swedish “territory” happened as in the NORD Stream pipelines.

[chrisl]

42 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Here is some risk-based food for thought in favour of the truck hypothesis.

When Ukraine planned this operation, secondary to blowing the bridge but still front and centre is continuing to shift Russia's internal narrative that they can win the war.  Striking and failing, on Putin's birthday, would shift the narrative in the wrong direction, so the planning would include as a top priority the need for near certainty of success.

A single missile - there was only one explosion - does not bring that level of certainty.

Everything is an estimate, so let's go with estimates. A four-lane highway would be about 14 metres across.  Let's say 16 to be generous. 

If HRIM-2, no-one (in my searching) knows the CEP.  But if it is as good as ATACMS (very unlikely), it's as small as 10 meters - and remember that this is a radius, not a diameter. Let's say 20 meters because a) HRIM-2 will not be as good and b) the ATACMS CEP is unpublished, to the best of my knowledge.  So the CEP is 40 metres in diameter.

For simplicity (my ability to do calculus is long gone) we can treat the roadway as circular.  This would mean that the likelihood of a missile missing the roadway is significantly greater than 50%.  If we stretch the road out into, you know, a road, then it's still around 50%.  If you add in the railway, aim at the middle and hope for the best, we are still hovering slightly below 50% for a strike.  Let's say 30% for a single missle to miss, to be generous.

Two missiles are then .3*.3 == 9% likely to miss.  Three missiles, 3%, and four missiles less than one percent.
The previous highly-accurate missile strikes on bridges were GMLRS, which has a small CEP, say 15 meters, and they used multiple missles.

Even if my numbers are significantly off (e.g., if the HRIMS-2 is in fact as accurate as the smallest CEP I've found for ATACMS, or Russian roads are a lot wider than typical ones), using a single missile is fairly likely to miss, so if this is a missile attack then the hypothetical Ukrainian planner either says "let's wait until after Putins b-day" or "let's send three or four missiles".

Since it was on Putin's b-day and there was a single explosion, that makes a missile less likely than a truck bomb with a GPS trigger and an unwitting (there is no evidence to date that Ukraine can generate suicide bombers) driver.  

Granted the truck bomb requires human assets to pull off, I'm of the view that there is enough chaos in Russia, particularly near-ish to the front, to make it relatively credible.  And if it fails, it does so silently, or at least not spectacularly, and not necessarily on Putin’s b-day.

The train would be easier to sabotage, I guess, but trains are stationary in more predictable, and hence more guardable, locations.  Perhaps there were multiple irons in the fire and the truck bomb worked first.  At that point, the slow-moving train that burned becomes a happy bonus, like a weevil in one’s biscuit.

 

If someone were to give Ukraine their own Globalhawk with a target designating laser, they could probably get a couple of meters (or better) CEP with a laser guided missile.  And asphalt might give a better reflection than the rail ballast.

[acrashb]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

CEP based on Saki appears to be somewhere around 15m.  If the roadway is 16m across then the chances of a miss are extremely low given that this is a linear target where error in probably 6 out of 8 directions results in a hit and theoretically error in the other 2 is might still result in a hit.

All good, wanted to emphasize again that CEP is radius, not diameter.  So 15m CEP is 30 meter diameter of 50% hits.

Your point about misses possibly not being known is well taken.

[acrashb]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

If someone were to give Ukraine their own Globalhawk with a target designating laser, they could probably get a couple of meters (or better) CEP with a laser guided missile.  And asphalt might give a better reflection than the rail ballast.

Pretty sure HRIM-2 does not have a terminal laser guidance feature. 

[chrisl]

Just now, acrashb said:

Pretty sure HRIM-2 does not have a terminal laser guidance feature. 

If I were going to give Ukraine a Globalhawk with a target designator, I'd probably give them something that could take advantage of it, too.  Just sayin...

[Haiduk]

The crater from Kh-101 missile in the center of Kyiv. Three missiles hit this area (two other hit the park zone forward)

DTEK (company of Rinat Akhmetov) central office and large business center after missile strike - there is old thermal power plant across the street, but "high precision missile" hit business center.

[TheVulture]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

CEP based on Saki appears to be somewhere around 15m.  If the roadway is 16m across then the chances of a miss are extremely low given that this is a linear target where error in probably 6 out of 8 directions results in a hit and theoretically error in the other 2 is might still result in a hit.

For what it's worth, measuring from google maps satellite view, the width of the roadway is about 30 meters, and the distance between the far sides of the rail bridge and road bridge comes to 61m

[kraze]

33 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Well I would kind of suggest "existence" is being meant in a more subtle way here ?  Russia -  if allowed to continue in its current political form - will simply keep trying  exactly what is is doing now until it succeeds or until it no longer "exists" in its current form . There has to be a change in view/perspective at the top in Russia  for anything to change . Until that happens Kraze is kind of on point .

Russia is an empire. It's not a single country. Political change in an empire is impossible because anything but an aggressive, violent, despotic government leads to a very fast disintegration.

And if empires can't just take and hold new lands - they start exterminating the populace until they can. Anyone in putin's place will keep doing the same. Because an emperor is as much a slave of the system as he is an owner of it.

Changing a guy on the imperial throne will not stop the cycle of violence, because a weak one will simply get dethroned by his stronger subordinates.

So no, no subtle way about it. Time to accept that Russia should not exist as a single entity, it has to end or millions will die.

[dan/california]

Worth pointing out that the amount of GPS jamming around the Kerch bridge right now is probably enough to fry any egg within a kilometer or two. They might have aimed for the center span just to see what one missile did. I really expect Ukraine to hit it again as soon as they try to run any military freight trains over the bridge.

 

Edit: Given how slowly the train will probably need to go they might even try to HIT the first military train. If Five Eyes can read STAVKA's email, they can certainly read the train schedules.

Edited October 10, 2022 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Reportedly +1 Su-25 was shot down today in Kherson oblast 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'll say this again.  The biggest argument against the truckbomb theory is that it is complicated and therefore prone to failure.  Ukraine's track record shows it is in favor of things that are simple and prone to success.  If Ukraine had it's mind set on blowing up the Kerch bridge on Putin's birthday, in conjunction with other logistical strikes, it seems pretty unlikely it would have placed all its bets on a truckbomb plot when more certain options existed.

Therefore, if Ukraine lacked a missile capable of hitting the bridge it would more likely turn to blowing up a fuel train than a truck bomb.

Steve

Exactly, and critically -  a missile strike is vastly easier to assess, adjust,  strike again,, assess, adjust,  increase quantity, strike again, ad infinitum. 

It's a rapidly repeatable and scalable attack method at a difficult target a long ways away begins enemy lines. 

Truck bombs were used in Iraq etc because front "lines" didn't exist. It was a  heterogeneous battlefield of amorphous and constantly shifting competing areas of control,  in close knit urban environments that perfectly suit VBIEDs. But there's a lot that can go wrong and if it doesn't do the job then you're literally back to square one (unless you build a whole stable of VBIEDs a la ISIS -  but they did that in their controlled territories and used the trucks against attacking forces, not sending them deep into hostile territory to attack far away infrastructure). 

Suffiently damaging a massive structure like the Kerch to the point where it fails requires far more than an opportunistic, difficult to get right and extremely difficult to repeat, VBIED. We did not see SOF sending truck bombs across the Antonovsky, a structure that still took a lot of HIMARSing and was far closer to UKR territory and physically easier to get to. 

A truck bomb is a once off.  Missiles are repeatedable. The Ketch is a hard (but brittle) nut to crack. One truck bomb woukd be very unlikely to be sufficient,  and if it was a VBIED, well -  Q. E. D.!

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[MikeyD]

Lets recall the Murrah federal building attack in 1995. A big truck packed full of explosives can create a LOT of damage, far more than you imagine it could.

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I'd say that (maybe) the biggest news right now is not Kerch or the Kyiv attacks.  It's the attacks on infrastructure in NATO countries.  What will these countries do?  What will NATO do?  What will the majority of the public want in these countries? 

Clearly Putin is betting that his nuclear threat will allow him to make these attacks on NATO countries w/o any response, in the hopes that there will then be pressure put on UKR to make a bad deal, soon.  This could have profound affects going forward.

Hopefully people in EU will just get really angry and we'll see more pressure on RU and more support for UKR.  And the first thing to do is to kick RU off security council and call it a terrorist state, with all the implications of that.  I think leaders have resisted officially labeling Putin a terrorist because that's impossible to walk back later, but we past that now.  

These attacks can also be seen as the Russian version of Ukraine’s often discussed pushing past red lines. Blowing the Nord line(s) = no big response. Now followed by a wider attack on NATO nations’ infrastructure targets. Russia doesn’t need to fear a NATO nuclear response. It can test how far it can poke which countries in the eye, before seeing a damaging conventional response. Russia knows that agreeing on triggering Article 5 would entail a great deal of political debate first. In a way, the Article 5 threat is similar to Putin’s nuclear war threat. A secondary result is the always active efforts to undermine any and all Western democracies and their citizens’ faith in their own governments. In these incidents, the fallout whatever it may be in the public’s mind comes as winter nears.

[Kinophile]

58 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It's a demonstration of engineering that had perfectly fine constraints for its design conditions, but was underconstrained against the extreme conditions that result from getting Ukrainians really angry.

That my friend, is a perfect analogy for the entire Russian war effort. 

Perfectly good for domestic consumption of a Syria level conflict, but completely unprepared for really angry Ukrainians. 

[sburke]

45 minutes ago, kraze said:

Changing a guy on the imperial throne will not stop the cycle of violence, because a weak one will simply get dethroned by his stronger subordinates.

Literally nobody here has suggested that just replacing Putin or a few guys at the top is going to change Russia so who are you arguing with?

[Mattias]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yikes, that is a long podcast! 

Steve

Sure is, took me all day to get through
 

But the authoritative analysis of most European major land system from an in theatre perspective, taking vital logistics and political aspects into consideration - combined with a succinct presentation of the pro ATACMS argument held me riveted.  And not least humbled, by the unusually high incidence of (very interesting) facts that I was not aware of.

[Haiduk]

Toss-fire with rockets by pair of UKR Mi-24

 

 

[Probus]

39 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Lets recall the Murrah federal building attack in 1995. A big truck packed full of explosives can create a LOT of damage, far more than you imagine it could.

And that was just a fertilizer bomb (ammonium Nitrate), a truck full of weapons grade explosives could easily take down a bridge.  For what it's worth, it looks like either a missile or a truck bomb, one or the other.

[sburke]

Germany to 'quickly' send air defense systems to Ukraine (msn.com)

[rocketman]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly +1 Su-25 was shot down today in Kherson oblast 

Could it be this one:

https://youtu.be/bFgwHvM0oAA

 

looks like the pilot ejected.

Edited October 10, 2022 by rocketman

[akd]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

HIMARS vs artillery/MLRS

 

Looks like possibly M30A1/A2 rounds working.  Also the quick retargeting of the pair of vehicles that tried to scoot away while original target was still being engaged is impressive.

Edited October 10, 2022 by akd

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Ukraine was unable to use missiles or didn't like the odds of a hit, the truck concept should NOT have been their first pick for an alternative.  Train would be significantly easier to pull off.  So if this was a truck bomb, then there's something we're not taking into our calculations that would favor it over a train.

Steve

In something like this it isn't necessarily about what alternative pick you want but what your actionable alternatives are. Yes the rail would be a preferred target but it depends on what assets you have in place where and what their capabilities are. If you have assets with the means and capability to use the truck and don't have suitable infiltration to mine a rail car you have to go with the truck. So it probably is a case of going with what they had, either missile or truck.

It's a lot like smuggling drugs in the US. The vast, vast majority is moving from south to north and west to east. Every now and then one will get popped out of sync. When your connection is in Chicago and not Seattle, you have to get your dope from where you can. You'd really rather buy it out of Seattle (rail) as it is of higher grade and costs less but your only connection is Chicago (truck) so you get what you can from where you can.

[acrashb]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

Germany to 'quickly' send air defense systems to Ukraine (msn.com)

About bloody time - and not just for Germany.
 

I will remind all of us of ISW's summary from October 6, only a few days ago:

"As ISW reported yesterday, Russian forces do not appear to be focusing these [Iranian] drones on asymmetric nodes near the battlefield. They have used many drones against civilian targets in rear areas, likely hoping to generate nonlinear effects through terror. Such efforts are not succeeding."

If these missile and drone strikes will not achieve their goals, as ISW says (and I agree), then why do they happen?  Culture.

If a culture thinks that brutality succeeds, then things are seen through that lens.  I've seen it at some corporations, where effectiveness metrics are replaced by "how tough do we want to be".  It ain't about tough, it's about does it work. 

Russian military culture, which of course mirrors the larger culture, is about "how brutal do we want to be", as evidenced in all of their recent wars and in WWII, where my Romanian friend(s) describe their family's experiences with Russian soldiery as "savage". 

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by acrashb