How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Something that I discussed in the past is being noticed by RU Nats

Quote

After a public demonstration of the incapacity of the state machine, the process of outsourcing many areas of military activity will only increase. PMCs Wagner and PMCs Akhmat, regional battalions, the appearance of volunteer teams that are not bound by any statutory prejudices, private intelligence and special services that regularly show efficiency higher than the state (it is not difficult) - the state was not ready for this, it no longer has the strength to resist the grassroots initiative. In principle, this is normal. There are more American PMCs in Iraq and Afghanistan than there are regular military personnel. That is, we are following a normal path. The only question is whether our excessively verticalized state will not try to stand in the way of progress.

 

[Combatintman]

18 minutes ago, Sandokan said:

Guys, your opinion about scenes like this. Is the programme "I want to live" really working? 

 

The PWs don't look frightened or hesitant enough to me but I have no doubt that it is reflective of similar arranged surrenders that have taken place.

[acrashb]

35 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Let's face it - our cathedrals are nicer than anybody else's.  On a less light note ... it illustrates the power of messaging and how it sticks in the psyche if promoted often enough.

Not sure which direction the messaging comes from - perhaps bi-directional, but I think predominantly from Russia (and not with love).

Every authoritarian government needs an external enemy; Russia of course has NATO, but more narrowly Britain.  

At this point I expect that Britain's omnipotent security services are a firmly embedded conspiracy theory, having the same place in Russian minds that groups like the Bilderbergers, Rothschilds, Davos attendees, Knights Templar and Illuminati have in the minds of conspiracy theorists elsewhere.

 

[Eddy]

59 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Let's face it - our cathedrals are nicer than anybody else's.

Yes I believe the cathedral whose spire is 123 metres tall (404 feet) is a firm favourite amongst Muscovites

[RockinHarry]

39 minutes ago, Sandokan said:

Guys, your opinion about scenes like this. Is the programme "I want to live" really working? 

 

Had my initial doubts as well, but the way the UKR´s react and stay aware of the overall situation makes be believe it´s not fake. Anyway, these situations might already have happened exactly this way and more will happen surely again.

[Harmon Rabb]

9 minutes ago, acrashb said:

At this point I expect that Britain's omnipotent security services are a firmly embedded conspiracy theory, having the same place in Russian minds that groups like the Bilderbergers, Rothschilds, Davos attendees, Knights Templar and Illuminati have in the minds of conspiracy theorists elsewhere.

 

Now I have an urge to replay the original Deus Ex. Truly a classic PC Role playing game.

[Huba]

That can't be good for the barrel

 

 

[Grigb]

New Maskovets post. His posts are a bit tedious to read so i made a list of important points.

Quote

• Two days ago, RU command regrouped the forces into Norther group (to operate at Svatove area) and Souther group (to operate in Kreminna-Rubizhne area)
• It happened after RU command failed to stop AFU advancing group (from North-West and South-West to Svatove) with series of counter attacks at Pertopavlivsk and Borova 
• The situation became worse when UKR reached Nevske-Krasnorechinsk area and more importantly the outskirts of Kreminna. RU command realized that throwing weak reserves into random counterattacks will result in eventual retreat from Svatove-kreminna-Rubezhne area.
• Mashkovets believes it is thoughts above that forces RU command to reconsider it's approach and defined proper operational formation of Svatove grouping
•  RU command started it 4-5 days ago. Today after movement of significant forces it has openly offensive grouping in Svatove area and defensive one in Kreminna area
• The first sign that RU is planning to stabilize front line at Svatove-Kreminna line appeared right after retreat from Lyman - Ru command started to transfer 2nd CAA to Svatove-Kreminna area
• While 2 BGTr from 21st mr brigade received task of blocking AFU advance to Kreminna (the managed to do it to some extend) 2 other BTGrs (from 30th mr brigade) went north and did not participate in battles.
•  Everything became clear when the forward units of AFU were 20-30 km from Svatove (west and north-west direction) discovered prepared enemy defences. Also RU forces managed to slo down AFU advance at Dvurechne-Tavolzhanka
• RU concentrated there 6-7 BTGrs and 3 divisions [not normal divisions but RU arty division of 2-4 batteries]

List of units

• 2 BTGr of the 55th mr brigade of the 41st CAA (took part in counterattacks in the area of Petropavlovsk, suffered significant losses as a result)
• 1 BTGr of the 15th mr regiment of the 2nd mr division of the 1st Guards TA
• Consolidated tank BTGr of the 59th t regiment of the 144th mr division of the 20th CAA (the total number of combat-ready tanks does not exceed 14-15 units)
• 1 BTGr of the 252nd mr regiment of the 3rd mr division of the 20th CAA
• Remnants of the 1st BTGr 200th mr brigade 14th AK Black Sea Fleet (in reality — reinforced company)
• Consolidated tactical group of artillery (fire platoon — 3 units of 152-mm ACS 2S19 "Msta-S" + 6 PU 122-mm MLRS BM-21 "Grad" — N. Tarasovka district)
• Another tactical group of artillery (2 PU 220-mm MLRS 9K57 "Hurricane" + 4 units 152-mm 2S19 "Msta-S")
• 1 tactical group of arty — 4 units 152-mm ACS 2S3 "Acacia" + 3 PU 122-mm MLRS BM-21 "Grad" (south of Svatovo).
• There are 2 more BTGr of 30 mr brigade from 2nd CAA somehere around. Alegedly one is deployed at Raihorodok-Karmazinivka to block AFY advance to Svatove
•  Enemy continues to transfer forces - in last two days through Starobelsk he transferred around 73 vehicles (including at least 16-18 tanks and 22-24 AVFs) 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Continuation

Quote

• In addition, the enemy transfers forces from North - through Troitske. At night he transfers arty (by battery - 3-6 units)
• In Verkhny Duvanka 1st mr battalion (most probably consolidated unit from 11th mr division 11th AK) is digging in with probable task of protecting this line of communication 

We can conclude the following:

• The enemy believes that nothing bad can happen in Kreminna-Rubehne otherwise Svatove grouping would act differently
• The enemy tries to get ahead of AFU in organization of Svatove defense - build it before AFU reaches it
• Large amount of arty transferred here points to the intent is to stall AFU with arty
• It is obvious that after stopping AFU enemy is planning to counterattack and restore defense along Oskil river 

In conclusion some general info

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepared a secret report on the situation with ammunition of the main calibers for the highest military and political leadership of Russia. By the end of this month, the Russian command predicts a difficult situation with artillery ammunition of the main calibers, in particular, we are talking about 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells. Also, they expect interruptions with mortar ammunition.

The most interesting thing is that the clever guys from the Russian General Staff in their report directly link the nature of POSSIBLE hostilities (defense / offensive) with the pace and volume of ammo consumption.

 

[Grigb]

And now Rybar confirmed that Wagnerites advanced along Lumumba street and entered Industrial zone (again)

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Or the RU Nats conducting some rite to call Yog Soggot from the Dark Beyond the Stars

You mean Dark Beyond the Stars by Frank Robinson?  I loooooved that book when I read it 30 years ago.  And now I see it's not even available on kindle.  Dangit, was great book.

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepared a secret report on the situation with ammunition of the main calibers for the highest military and political leadership of Russia. By the end of this month, the Russian command predicts a difficult situation with artillery ammunition of the main calibers, in particular, we are talking about 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells. Also, they expect interruptions with mortar ammunition.

And this forum is right, yet again.  Lots of folks here predicted RU arty ammo shortage.  Along w the current tactics of infiltration followed by mech/armor.

[Offshoot]

Purportedly a Ukrainian advance using HMMWVs in the Kherson region demonstrating a "dagger" attack. They are certainly using live ammo.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw/breakthrough_of_the_front_in_the_kherson_region_a/

 

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Sandokan said:

Guys, your opinion about scenes like this. Is the programme "I want to live" really working? 

 

That almost reminded me of Spielberg's SPR halftrack ambush scene,when they meet Ryan for the first time. Nice colors and all seems too orchestrated but I'd agree it could reflect other real life incidents. Maybe it's almost a staged demonstration to encourage more Russians to follow this route. 

[Homo_Ferricus]

38 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Purportedly a Ukrainian advance using HMMWVs in the Kherson region demonstrating a "dagger" attack. They are certainly using live ammo.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw/breakthrough_of_the_front_in_the_kherson_region_a/

 

I guess the gunner is foreign legion/westerner because the occupants in the humvee are shouting at him to fire more, seems like at least one tries to communicate that in English.

[Zeleban]

Curious footage of a tank battle near Novooleksandrivka, Kherson region

[RandomCommenter]

Intercepted call from DPR militia man to his wife.

Some highlights (no surprises to anyone who has been reading these pages, but still):

• No love lost between DPR militias and Russian regulars
• 140 DPR militia men in charge of holding 130 km (!!!) of front armed only with assault rifles, no heavy weapons
• And they consider themselves lucky because they think they have a tank ditch that will keep Ukrainian armor away
• No rotation of units from the front lines. Officers know the men won't go back if they are rotated out.
• 50% casualties in their units already
• Friendly fire - they shoot at people coming to reinforce their lines
• Seems like one Russian guy shot 75 people as well as raping a woman
• Seems like the Russian leadership is making some attempt to punish people for rape and murder and is interrogating people trying to find out what is going on but will likely release them unpunished after the "special operation" is over
• Guys on front lines are jealous of the guys in prison because at least they are safe 

 

So in short a bunch of orcs ripe for the Rohirrim to come and bust them up.

[Calamine Waffles]

The war is going great when your 40 km MLRS is in direct fire range of a T-72
 

 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

That can't be good for the barrel

 

 

The triple 7 is towed by the barrel. What isn’t shown is the connection to the towing vehicle which is at least two to three feet above the road surface.

[Huba]

Just now, Vet 0369 said:

The triple 7 is towed by the barrel. What isn’t shown is the connection to the towing vehicle which is at least two to three feet above the road surface.

I know that, but the way they did it looked rather extreme, the forces working on it from the side must've been substantial. Perhaps not even on the barrel itself, but the recoil mechanism? Unless it is designed to be mauled like that, but from what I hear it's a rather delicate piece of equipment.

[dan/california]

 

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

The mobiks are "training " on a bizarre mix of fifty+ year old junk. and brand new stuff. Just more proof of how badly improvised tis whole thing is.

6 hours ago, Grossman said:

Most likely a multi-pronged attack hinged on Melitopol ( where there is heavy partisan activity) isolating the Russian force to the east of the Dnieper, and moving onto Crimea. [The Russian force west of the Dnieper is isolated.]  It would be a master stoke.

It has to work, though. They are not launching it until things are ready.

5 hours ago, akd said:

Should have surrendered:

 

Not sure "shelling" is the right description. More of a final assault.

 

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The war is going great when your 40 km MLRS is in direct fire range of a T-72
 

 

When your calvary is sabering their artillery, you are winning. As true now as it was 500 years ago.

 

[Zeleban]

Different people serve in the armed forces of Ukraine. There are also cooks.

[Zeleban]

 

trophies from the Kherson region.

[Zeleban]

 

New skins for BTR-82A

[akd]

WTF?

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Remind me not to play hide and seek with Ukrainians.

I wonder what that guy's plan was. Didn't leave himself too many options.

 

*edit*

I appreciate the Vincent Vega reference in the comments.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma
Does the 6 post limit about socks include signatures?