How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Going back to my previous post which mentioned the US withdrawal from the IRBM treaty, this right here was the entire reason for the treaty in the first place. The extremely short flight time of IRBMs to Moscow or European capitals required instantaneous decision making, which makes the weapons a destabilizing factor. IT was a good idea to eliminate them, and now we are back, with Russia with nuclear capable IRBMs and the US discussing nuclear warhead cruise missiles. Bad ideas all.

Dave

And with a fielding of hypersonic weapons (theoretically non-nuclear, but...)it's only going to get worse, with these deployed in Europe, Moscow would have literally maybe 3 minutes for reaction from launch to hit. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Range_Hypersonic_Weapon

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, acrashb said:

Every time they take a breath they face the ongoing boa constrictor of sanctions, the destruction of decades of accumulated war materiel, destruction of essentially all of the trained / experienced military-aged male resources, the destruction and dispersal of their cadre, internal political tension, dissention in the republics at the edge of the Russian federation, ongoing grotesque levels of corruption (e.g., the 1.5M winter uniforms soon to be found on eBay), etc.  

Regarding taking into account mistakes, they learn operationally, but slowly (e.g., the slow dispersal of munitions depots once HIMARS started working).  The RA and their society is not built to be a learning organization.

Time is against Russia.  

I've been harping on this since the first few days of the war (and before, but that was more theoretical). 

Think about it.  Russia went into Ukraine with around 40 years worth of war production in hand, including massive stocks of artillery shells.  Even before the war its war production capacity was not very strong and getting weaker thanks to the 2014 sanctions and prolonged energy price drop.  That and decades of accumulated corruption cutting into bone.  Now they have sanctions that have crippled it's industrial capacity across the board, not just military.  Plus, so many of the critical components of modern Russian production came from sources that are no longer available to them.

Russia's manpower is also in horrible shape.  The training and capabilities shown in this war were horrible and they are only getting worse as they go down to about zero training.  And who is going to lead them?  Officer deaths are massive and it takes years to train new junior officers and 10 years to have mid level.  They're pretty much gone now, so there's years before officers are back in numbers worth talking about.  Even then, without massive reforms they will suck as bad as the ones fertilizing sunflowers.

At the same time, the Ukrainian military is getting better as Russia's is getting worse.  Both quality and quantity are improving every day.

So think about it logically.  A much larger, long term Russian force attack a much smaller and weaker Ukrainian defense and lost.  Big time.  With Russia being the weaker state and Ukraine the stronger one, what chance to they have?  None.

If Russia had accepted Zelensky's terms for a ceasefire in March, we should be a lot more worried about Russia in the near future.  Why?  Because they would have had substantial material and manpower that could be reformed into a better fighting force.  Now?  Absolutely no threat from Russia for at least 5 years even if sanctions are removed.  I'd say if they attacked Ukraine within 5 years they wouldn't even get over the border.  10 years they might make it a few KMs.  That's it.

Steve

[Grossman]

Biden was criticised heavily for the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan, end of August 2021, last year. It could have been done better, agreed, but the theory I have is that the US had very early intel that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. In the US book this was home turf, as compared to Afghanistan, and the US didn't want to be "deployed" in 2 conflicts at the same time. Hence the immediate pull out in Afghanistan. Biden never said why it was done, but then he wouldn't. 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Biden was criticised heavily for the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan, end of August 2021, last year. It could have been done better, agreed, but the theory I have is that the US had very early intel that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. In the US book this was home turf, as compared to Afghanistan, and the US didn't want to be "deployed" in 2 conflicts at the same time. Hence the immediate pull out in Afghanistan. Biden never said why it was done, but then he wouldn't. 

It was done because there was an existing agreement with the Afghan gov't.  It was not actually Biden's plan, it was Trump's.  That is not an intended criticism.  Getting out of Afghanistan was always going to be a mess whether it was implemented by a republican or democratic leadership.

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

It was done because there was an existing agreement with the Afghan gov't.  It was not actually Biden's plan, it was Trump's.  That is not an intended criticism.  Getting out of Afghanistan was always going to be a mess whether it was implemented by a republican or democratic leadership.

Yup. We've already explored this topic. There's a simpler explanation than some long-view deep thinking on the part of politicians -  prior agreements panning out by accident into a better overall situation. 

[sross112]

Does anyone have any idea if there is a possibility during all this that the Transnistria issue gets resolved? 

So hear me out. Some of the rhetoric out of the Kremlin and their state TV is starting to refer to their invasion as a war instead of SMO. Now that they have had their referendums and claim the 4 Ukrainian Oblasts as Russian will they upgrade to calling this a war when Ukraine "invades" Luhansk and occupied Donetsk? If they do declare it a war does that open up the option for Ukraine to take Transnistria to secure that flank? I know declaring it a war won't change any of the factors on the ground but does it change the rules for what Ukraine will be sanctioned to do by the west?

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Does anyone have any idea if there is a possibility during all this that the Transnistria issue gets resolved? 

So hear me out. Some of the rhetoric out of the Kremlin and their state TV is starting to refer to their invasion as a war instead of SMO. Now that they have had their referendums and claim the 4 Ukrainian Oblasts as Russian will they upgrade to calling this a war when Ukraine "invades" Luhansk and occupied Donetsk? If they do declare it a war does that open up the option for Ukraine to take Transnistria to secure that flank? I know declaring it a war won't change any of the factors on the ground but does it change the rules for what Ukraine will be sanctioned to do by the west?

Ukraine likely would not do so.  Moldava would be the one to resolve that, it is their territory.

[FancyCat]

Finally, some short-term aid. 

 

 

[dan/california]

I want a poll on how much of Elon's money should be given to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, 80%, 90%, or 99%?

Edited October 3, 2022 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Shiba Inu-drawn dogsleds!

We must inform NAFO of this future development. Memes must be ready for winter! 

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Yup. We've already explored this topic. There's a simpler explanation than some long-view deep thinking on the part of politicians -  prior agreements panning out by accident into a better overall situation. 

Perhaps in politics and war not everything is always quite so simple. Trump’s signal of withdrawal and other such past precedents were certainly not universally applauded as wise strategy. But there it was, handed to an incoming President with a clock of a few months ticking away. One should never forget that management focus in any organization, large or small is a scarce resource. Among the various scenarios bandied about, a not unreasonable one is a mixture of a bad hand deprioritized and handed to the quick and dirty “it’s going to be a mess but you guys are stuck with it” C or D or worse team. Because a storm is coming, NATO is in shambles, we have a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands, and an economy that is once again teetering (except for the stock market!). The military is worn by decades in a no-win not a war again nation building futile exercise. And Europe is a greater strategic and national interest than that Graveyard of Empires. So that’s our immediate priority focus overseas. Tough decisions, never guaranteed to be right until the dust settles. Pretty clear the new USA Admin was repairing European relations and sharing intelligence well ahead of the storm of the century in Europe. And it looks as if Afghanistan was viewed as a write off - just as the in the previous Administration. It is an ugly ugly world. We end up grabbing our Bright Moments when and how we can.  
 

I must say how good and pleasant it is to see the USA unequivocally backing the good guys.
 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[Fenris]

Incoming (second one is very loud)

 

[OldSarge]

25 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I must say how good and pleasant it is to see the USA unequivocally backing the good guys.
 

I concur and it is also refreshing to see the resuming of the role as a unifying force behind NATO and successfully clearing possible roadblocks to see the possible addition of two new members.

Edited October 4, 2022 by OldSarge

[sburke]

Russia fires another general as Ukraine forces continue to advance across two fronts (msn.com)

Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, the head of the Western Military District, was replaced by Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov, Russia's RBC reported on Monday.

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Not exactly or only. 

A Causeway can be on top of a dam or dyke. 

Well then, I stand corrected. Thank you. Now I guess that whether the earthen mound is a dam with a causeway on top of it (built to stop the water flow and create a reservoir) or a causeway (elevated road built to cross a low lying water feature). Isn’t the English language so fantastic to give us so many opportunities for discussions?

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, OldSarge said:

https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dfn-rss-zap

I didn't see this posted here, a bit of things happening behind the curtains - maybe, it still hasn't been finalized. The U.S. is looking to standup a new command within EUCOM to oversee the equipping and training of UA troops. Apparently, this also includes making facilities like those at either Grafenwoehr or Hohenfels available for their training missions.

The proposed command would be located in Wiesbaden where the International Donor Coordination Center, that coordinates the donations from over 40 nations, has already relocated from Stuttgart.  Looks like this will be a long term effort.

This has been in planning quietly from some months. Huge news. The US is creating a structure for the long term to deal with Russia and help Ukraine. This is the sort of commitment that is difficult for later administrations to pull away from without a buy in from pretty much everybody.

[cyrano01]

This from the Torygraph, anyone seen anything from other sources to validate or otherwise?

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/

 

It's behind a paywall so first paragraphs...thoughts?

 

A Russian convoy transporting equipment for Russia's nuclear weapons programme has sparked fears that Vladimir Putin could be preparing a test to send a “signal to the West”.

A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.

The pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar shared the footage showing the large freight convoy hauling upgraded armoured personnel carriers and other equipment.

Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst specialising in Ukraine, said the 12th directorate operated a dozen central storage facilities for nuclear weapons.

 

"This is actually a kit belonging to the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian MoD,” The Poland-based analyst said. “The directorate is responsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units."

Mr Muzyka said it could be a “signalling to the West that Moscow is escalating," in reference to Vladimir Putin's nuclear war warning last week.

However, the expert stressed that the video in no way shows "preparations for a nuclear release".

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2022 by cyrano01

[akd]

Very flimsy reporting.

[LongLeftFlank]

Kreminna

Remember 1200 pages back when we were all counting Russian BTGs?

 

[cesmonkey]

31 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

This from the Torygraph, anyone seen anything from other sources to validate or otherwise?

In response to this, a senior military official at the Pentagon said today:

Quote

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, Tom, I'm aware of those press reports. I don't have anything on that. I think what you heard Secretary Austin say in terms of, you know, that we've seen nothing to compel us to change our posture, is still the same.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3178292/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

[Calamine Waffles]

This is like if there existed a video of Patton starting up a captured Tiger tank and driving off with it
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, akd said:

Very flimsy reporting.

And even if it is 100% accurate, it means nothing.  Putin moving stuff around within Russia to make threats of using nukes appear more real would not be surprising at all.  This is the sort of escalation tactics that Putin loves to do and it could be absolutely nothing more than that.  Even if the report is true.

Steve

[Artkin]

30 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

This is like if there existed a video of Patton starting up a captured Tiger tank and driving off with it
 

 

This makes me wonder, was the steering system designed (The two tall rods) so the operator can drive it easily unbuttoned? It seems pretty difficult to do with a wheel. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Kreminna

Remember 1200 pages back when we were all counting Russian BTGs?

 

That might be the most useful map anyone has published in the entire war.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

In response to this, a senior military official at the Pentagon said today:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3178292/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

He literally, with forethought and intent, said absolutely nothing.