How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

Btw for all of you who couldn't yet grasp the full extent of the German energy plight:

Gas is used to produce fertilizers. A by-product of that is industrial carbonic acid. And that is a main ingredients of... beer! Yes, we are running out of beer!

Freezing... ok, tanking our economy... so be it. B-but no beer?! I can't decide if we should surrender immediately or send all the Leopards we have to Ukraine via express mail.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Butschi

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

No leaves on the ground, my guess is a spring picture.

This is summer. ANd T-90M probably of 2nd GMRD, judging on hexagonal emblem - alas, I can't see number in this emblem, but I think 2nd GMRD is most likely. They got about company of T-90M in 2022

Edited September 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

is the translation right? 

 

 Absolutely. I will post tomorrow other weird things of today's coven 

[akd]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, their sign is a circle in inverted triangle. BMP-2M  are vehicles of 21st MRB and volunteer cossack battalion "Don" (later allegedly expanded to brigade), formed on its base. 

Ah, here is where I saw the bear paw connected to 3 AK:

 

[Haiduk]

Russian military train on Crimean bridge

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This is a hard watch....

Understatement of the year contender.  Even with the somber music off.

Steve

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Ah, here is where I saw the bear paw connected to 3 AK:

Maybe some unit of 3rd AK got own tactical sign, like other brigades and divisions, but common sign of 3rd AK is circle in triangle.

Russian MoD had a contract on 124 BMP-2M upgrades on 2018-2025. One more unit, which got it is 15th GMRR of 2nd GMRD (at least two compnies)  

Edited September 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is summer. ANd T-90M probably of 2nd GMRD, judging on hexagonal emblem - alas, I can't see number in this emblem, but I think 2nd GMRD is most likely. They got about company of T-90M in 2022

Geoconfirmed with indications that a large accumulation of vehicles was at this location recently:

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian military train on Crimean bridge

 

would have been a nice moment to hit that bridge.

[danfrodo]

47 minutes ago, sburke said:

I am going to enjoy watching these a$$hats live in their crap country with no industry or technology for the next decade plus.  Modern hospital resources... yeah not so much, but you can still make plenty of alcohol.

They'll need the alcohol and will have plenty for sure, since it's sanctioned.  A country so collectively mentally ill they think they can take on the whole world.  Wow.

Can't believe all these Canada references w/o mentioning The Tragically Hip.  And I also had Rush as my first concert, 8th grade.  Didn't know their music very well but what a show!  So tight and professional.

Meanwhile, maps seem to be indicating that RU failed to build a line at the next river.  Looks like it's already been bounced.  I keep wondering what forces RU has b/w Torske & Rubizne.  yet another major supply junction seems to be in play.

That funeral video was crushing.  How can humans be so insane that one man's life is worth the lives of dozens of thousands of others??  Just shoot Putin someone, please.  That would be the most festive funeral since 1945.

 

[Grigb]

RUMINT - couple of hours ago there was firefight at Kreminna.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian military train on Crimean bridge

 

Looks to be BMP-2s and fully kitted out T-72s, yes?  I'm not good with identifying the different tank models at a distance and the guardrails obscure the roadwheels, making it even worse for me!

It's not possible to know what was further back in the train, but this is the armor for a mech company and a tank company.  Based on all the substandard equipment that's been seen lately, my guess is these vehicles came from a previously deployed border or peace keeping unit.  Maybe these came from Finland?

I don't think the guy with the phone filming this would sound so enthusiastic if he knew this might be the last intact prewar military unit left in all of Russia

Steve

[Grigb]

Might be was already posted here - locals claims RU leaving/left Lyman

 

RUMINT that regrouping was not as successful as RU hoped

 

 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think the guy with the phone filming this would sound so enthusiastic if he knew this might be the last intact prewar military unit left in all of Russia

Steve

or if they grabbed him and told him he is now a driver.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RUMINT - couple of hours ago there was firefight at Kreminna.

Oh, I'd believe that in a heartbeat.  We've been discussing here that the force that crossed the Siverskyi Donets was not there for sight seeing, yet they were oddly quiet.  I think we just figured out what they were waiting for!

If Ukraine is actively pushing into Kreminna then it is either already, or soon to be, moving into Dibrova.  Based on Ukraine's pattern of behavior, they never go for a narrow strike, they always go wide (which is textbook approved!).  If they have Dibrova, then they will likely be able to interdict the N/S farm road just north of the town.  That would pretty much isolate all forces that were trying to connect with the Lyman pocket.  A double pocket is a very nice thought.

Steve

[Artkin]

40 minutes ago, akd said:

Ah, here is where I saw the bear paw connected to 3 AK:

 

Is that a bmp-2m with a rcws? thats new? Maybe I'm just mistaking the barrel for a stick

Edit: appears its just the usual 30mm with the barrel removed?

Edited September 30, 2022 by Artkin

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I'd believe that in a heartbeat.  We've been discussing here that the force that crossed the Siverskyi Donets was not there for sight seeing, yet they were oddly quiet.  I think we just figured out what they were waiting for!

If Ukraine is actively pushing into Kreminna then it is either already, or soon to be, moving into Dibrova.  Based on Ukraine's pattern of behavior, they never go for a narrow strike, they always go wide (which is textbook approved!).  If they have Dibrova, then they will likely be able to interdict the N/S farm road just north of the town.  That would pretty much isolate all forces that were trying to connect with the Lyman pocket.  A double pocket is a very nice thought.

Steve

There is rumor that they took that Dibrova a couple of days ago. Unfortunately, no any other confirmation. 

[Bulletpoint]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Understatement of the year contender.  Even with the somber music off.

Steve

The first thing I do when watching a video from Ukraine is always to turn the music off. But music or not, this was heartwrenching to watch. It's the first time I shed a tear watching a video from Ukraine, and I've seen some pretty bad things through my screen.

And this was just, what? Five? Seven? of the fates of soldiers fighting and dying in this senseless war. There are many no less brave who don't earn medals, because they are hit by a mundane stray bullet, or a shell fragment.

But each of them leaves behind a family.

I wonder if Putin also faces these families. Not that he would mind, since I doubt his reptile heart is capable of feeling any emotion that is not greed or pride.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Might be was already posted here - locals claims RU leaving/left Lyman

Other than the videos of streams of foot soldiers supposedly moving eastward, no we haven't seen this here yet!

OK, so we know that Lyman's flanking forces have already folded into Lyman and/or headed east.  If the rest of Lyman forces have left their positions, then it is obviously in order to break out to Zarichne/Torske.  Whomever gets through might be very unhappy to learn that they have to conduct a second breakout.  Probably not as iron tight as around Lyman, but that could change quickly.

I really hope it burns the RU Nat's arse hairs to know that Ukraine just did to Russia what Russia so spectacularly failed to do, which was to cross the Siverskyi Donets in force and cut in behind enemy lines in order to form a pocket.  Even better that Ukraine apparently did it in the same stretch of river that Russia had 3 failed crossing points and a total of 6 pontoon bridges failed.

Grigb, I hereby charge you with finding and posting RU Nat gnashing their teeth about this

Steve

[chuckdyke]

4 hours ago, Vacillator said:

Unless there's a pump involved

A quote out of context.

[AlsatianFelix]

Here are two Humvees (?) strolling into Stavky. That's what the road sign says at least. https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1575958789089415168?s=20&t=W3uBfL4S3HF66c4u5BXfUQ

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

A quote out of context.

A reply to an ambiguous post.  Hey-ho, nothing unusual there.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There is rumor that they took that Dibrova a couple of days ago. Unfortunately, no any other confirmation. 

It would make more sense to hit Dibrova first (easier target than Kreminna + two roads in play) and subsequently keep it quiet.  Neither side would want to talk about it for similar reasons.  Neither wants the Lyman forces to break and run in panic, though for Ukraine it's only true until they have the escape routes adequately manned.  At that point, by all means panic

Now, we know that Russia has had to scrape everything it could to man the Lyman positions in the first place.  Then it had to dig even deeper to come up with SOMETHING to try and break through.  Who wants to bet that there's some fresh and capable force suddenly available to punch through Kreminna and save everybody?  Nobody?  Damn, this is a smart crowd!

Steve

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Grigb, I hereby charge you with finding and posting RU Nat gnashing their teeth about this

Steve

Aye-aye Captain! 

But it will take some time - currently the official position is: huge reserves arrived, there is fighting, UKR encirclement failed, we killed millions of UKR.  So, they pretend nothing bad has happened. 

 

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

TLDR: surprisingly small relative drop to the total amount of about 800 pieces total.

Likely these and similar sites for ammo etc. are among those on the list for NATO retaliatory strikes in the event of Putin crossing THE red line. High ratio of matériel vs lives. Immediate crippling of mechanized war fighting ability.