How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

NaziRussia

They have a Hitler Class dictator. Definition of a Nazi. A person who was a member of the NSDAP. (National Socialist German Workers Party). Technically there are no Nazis today just *ssholes who try to copy them. 

[Zeleban]

RU recruits are preparing for the parade in captured Kyiv

[FancyCat]

What I want to emphasize from the linked post, why are there attacks on civilians with drones, artillery and missiles while Russians are facing encirclement and collapse on the front lines? (Obviously maybe there is logistical and rear military targets but still....)

How much of this is a Putin directed 'not one step back" and "terror into the citizenry" of hybrid warfare?

What about the General Staff?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Nice 360 drone shot from the Lyman only escape road: https://goo.gl/maps/6ZhFtVfGascHJurz8

 

drone shot location on the map:

 

[Grigb]

Current Political mood

Quote

The background in the political sector of Telegram today is unsuitable for an event that will take place at 15.00....
Garbage is not swept out of the house of power. And as a result, we see a social reaction of the population, which is generally patriotic, but does not understand why no one is punished for obvious mistakes, and they [population] are forced to pay more and more.

[Armorgunner]

7 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

They have a Hitler Class dictator. Definition of a Nazi. A person who was a member of the NSDAP. (National Socialist German Workers Party). Technically there are no Nazis today just *ssholes who try to copy them. 

NaziRussia does however have Nazis in their ranks. The leader of the PMC Wagner, Yevgevny Prigozhin, is a pronounced Nazi!

[pavel.k]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Nice 360 drone shot from the Lyman only escape road: https://goo.gl/maps/6ZhFtVfGascHJurz8

 

drone shot location on the map:

 

Youtube livestream from that drone would be great just now.

 

[Grigb]

If you ever wondered how RU will announce the loss of Yampil and Drobishevo

Quote

The head of the DPR Pushilin:

Yampol and Drobyshevo are not fully controlled by the Allied forces

 

[BletchleyGeek]

@LongLeftFlank was wondering whether the Lyman Pocket was going to play out like Falaise or Korsun... Looks like it is going to be a mixture of both. From @The_MonkeyKing map the last kilometre or so into Zarichne is down hill and observed probably from Ukrainian positions on higher ground either side... Yuck.

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Pete Wenman]

Question not specifically for @Grigb @Haiduk @akd but you guys might have a better feel for it

When reading 503rd Guard MMR, (or what ever other units referenced) do we have a feel for how many boots on the ground this really is. We know its certainly not at full strength, but what does a Regiment mean in this context, 1, 2 or 3 BTG ? It would be nice to strip away the "looks good on paper" and get to the reality of what shape these units are currently in.

 

Tom Cooper suggests the following units in the Lyman are

Russians in Lyman: gauging by reports from the social media, the group of forces encircled there is controlled by the 20th Combined Arms Army. At the first look, one might say, 'ah, VSRF'. That's wrong. The troops there are including:

- Bars-13
- Bars-16 (also known as 'Kuban' unit; this unit used to have 1,000 combatants; about 400 are inside Lyman)
- 208th 'Cossack' Motor Rifle Regiment (LPR)
- 503rd GMRR/19th MRD seems to be holding the way in/out

It is possible that the 204th Motor Rifle Regiment is around, too. That said, what's left of the 144th MRD is outside the pocket: this is on the northern side of it, in the Borova area.

Re. BARS: this is a Russian abbreviation for 'Special Combat Army Reserve' (full designation is actually BARS-2021). This was a program to mobilise 100,000 volunteers from former veterans of the VSRF for a 3-years contract. If the Rosgvardia is 'Putin's Pasdaran', BARS is something like 'Putin's Republican Guards': they're drafted from the Russian Cossack Association, handsomely paid (US$3,500 a month, plus allowances and awards), highly motivated, and well-equipped.

Other known BARS units are battalion-sized, and, when fully mobilised, about 1,000-strong. Nearly all are meanwhile deployed in Ukraine. The few others I've heard about so far are:
- Shironin Battalion (from Kirov)
- Bars-14 (I know this is one of units the ZSU considers 'criminals' and is taking no POWs from)
- Bars-15 (also known as 'Piatnashka'; receiving same treatment like -14)
- Bars-18 (ditto)

For involved ZSU units, the following can be assessed:
Kupyansk
- 92nd Mech
- 3rd Tank
- Kraken SF (battalion)
- possibly a battalion of the 80th Motor

Oskil
- 1st 'Ivan Bohun' Special Purpose Brigade (est. 4 Mar 22; including troops from 19 countries; has 6 battalions)
- 25th Airborne
- 66th Mech (persistently ignored by Ukrainian social media, but reported often by the Russians)
- 17th Tank
- 4th NG Brigade
- Azov SF (battalion)

Lyman
- 4th Tank
- 79th Airborne
- 81st Airborne

Siversk
- 80th Airborne
- 114 TD
- 115 TD

Bakhmut is defended by
- 58 Motor
- 72nd Mech
- 93rd Airborne
- 28th Artillery
- at least a brigade (in total) of the TD, but I'm not sure what units are involved.

Additional units 'detected', but not localised, yet known as involved 'somewhere in northern Donbass' are:
- 1st Tank

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Pete Wenman

[Grigb]

RU claims they are moving serious reserves to help Lyman.

 

[FancyCat]

So BARS-13 is RU Nat...I hope they surrender but if they think they would rather bet on fleeing, what is Ukraine to do to stop them from being pummeled on the road? Oh well.

Anecdote below, longer thread. Does not compare to hard data, but hard data shows millions of family connections over the border, yet all evidence points to threatened mobilization causing way more dismay than unrest connected due to family relations in Ukraine.

In a age where connecting across borders is easier than ever, it seems to have done little to stem the aggression.

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Modern wokism is the same social enginering and deconstruction, which affected countries with population much more than 140 millions. 

In the similar way as this was in Japan. Tradions saved, culture saved, identity - saved. Aggressive militarism and expansionism eliminated. 

I don't mean "50-years" occupation. Neither by NATO, nor by Ukraine - it's completely impossible. All what I wrote is what hypothetical new Russian powers must to do to fix situation. And partially Russia was doing this "nation building or deconstruction" in 1990-92, trying to break Soviet mentality, but rising KGB-maphia clans took developmnent over own control.

If we just liberate all our territories, we will not solve main problem and like Zaluzhnyi said we will get next war in 5-10-20 years. Revanchism will grow up again and the bear from cartoon again will stand and roar. But we will be in white coats and white gloves

Yes, we had collaborators and traitots, which condemned to death hundreds of people. Fortunately some of them already departed to the God's Court, because corrupted Ukrainian courts have littlle trust. 

Sorry for the delayed response but am on the road. Your effort deserves an answer. Couple points:

”Wokism” is not being enforced by a central authority, at least not in my country.  It is a social movement made be people free to do so.  Governments are getting onboard because in a democracy they need to in order to remain in power”

Japan was successful in expunging its imperial ambitions, which is clear evidence that a nation of people can reinvent itself.

The picture that you and others paint of Russia and all Russians make that impossible.  By the metric you are employing in your very detailed post Russians are irredeemable, all of them.  In fact that has been a central argument on this topic.  Now if you are arguing that Russians can change themselves over time, then we are now talking solutions and not revenge fantasies, which is excellent.

I would argue the best strategy is to pull Ukraine into collective defence and security mechanisms that Russia has never directly challenged.  Rebuild your nation.  Compress and contain Russia and its influence.  Leave sanctions and restrictions in place until Russia finds a leadership that is willing to cooperate in prosecution of war crimes and payment of reparations.  Then influence and encourage an internal Russian government that can conduct and support an effort to reduce the imperial impulse the nation has demonstrated - along with corruption, oppression and lack of democratic freedoms.

However in my vision, it need be accepted that Russia is not irredeemable, nor is every Russian a heartless invader nor active participant in this, or any other war.  One must accept that that are people of varying ideology and beliefs - they just keep turning to the wrong ones as their leadership.  

 

[FancyCat]

For those unaware, this is a pro-Russian twitter user, useful for getting a more pro-Russian bent. He spent the last few days crowing about how Ukraine was walking into a trap in the Lyman region.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

59 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

RU recruits are preparing for the parade in captured Kyiv

Yes, that drill will certainly ensure they break Marshal Grouchy's cavalry, or the levies of the Khedive.

...assuming that they are down to issuing 18th century muskets by then.

[The_Capt]

13 hours ago, FancyCat said:

If you don't mind me asking, what divides the Allied occupation of Germany and the U.S occupation of Japan between this hypothetical occupation of Russia?

The prosecution of the Second World War - which killed about 100 million people for starters.  And then there is the thorny reality that international law, which underpins the western world order has been put in place since.

There is ample evidence that the occupations influenced both German and Japanese culture; however neither was a wide scale attempt at social engineering.  Even if attempts were made at a local level, they were dropped quickly as we did not spend the 80s running re-education camps in Hamburg.

You are drawing on a flawed historical example and advocating for something that is never going to happen.  We did the occupation dance for 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq and never came close to what some are proposing - which look more like Cambodian or Chinese Peoples Revolution.  We are not going to occupy a country of 140 million for 50 years to try (and fail) to force change at that level.  We will work indirectly to induce change, so Russians can decide for themselves and perhaps see a better way.

[Zeleban]

 

It is reported that Ru began to form columns to break through from the encirclement The only street in Zarichna where they can concentrate to break through is under the supervision of drones and artillery

[akd]

T-72B3 (probably) getting wrecked. Second hit looks like ATGM from the right side of frame:

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

It is reported that Ru began to form columns to break through from the encirclement The only street in Zarichna where they can concentrate to break through is under the supervision of drones and artillery

Highway of Death in the making, or at least it looks like it. In the meantime, Putler is again late with his speech

[Lethaface]

On 9/29/2022 at 12:58 AM, FancyCat said:

Acting like Russia has a point in speaking up for Russian speakers the_Capt, acting like there is a risk of ethnic tensions that suggest maybe the Donbas needs to break away, is ignoring the very long history of Russification that now results in significant portions of Ukraine with Russian language speakers, and whom Russia now wages war upon to cynically "defend" them. 

No, you and others turn a blind eye to Kraze defacto blatantly calling for genocide of all Russians and Arabs. He walked a thin threaded line for a long time trying to stay just on the 'correct' part of the line (so he would be allowed to continue).

But it was clear for a while (at least to me) that he was formulating a problem for which the only requirement can be to 'get rid of all Russians'. Than he went further and included all Arabs in it for good measure.

Do you 'defend' that?

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

Question not specifically for @Grigb @Haiduk @akd but you guys might have a better feel for it

When reading 503rd Guard MMR, (or what ever other units referenced) do we have a feel for how many boots on the ground this really is. We know its certainly not at full strength, but what does a Regiment mean in this context, 1, 2 or 3 BTG ? It would be nice to strip away the "looks good on paper" and get to the reality of what shape these units are currently in.

Generally, you should downgrade all RU units by one step - Regiment > Reinforced battalion. I think we are talking about 1.5 BTGr.

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

Tom Cooper suggests the following units in the Lyman are

Russians in Lyman: gauging by reports from the social media, the group of forces encircled there is controlled by the 20th Combined Arms Army. At the first look, one might say, 'ah, VSRF'. That's wrong. The troops there are including:

- Bars-13
- Bars-16 (also known as 'Kuban' unit; this unit used to have 1,000 combatants; about 400 are inside Lyman)
- 208th 'Cossack' Motor Rifle Regiment (LPR)
- 503rd GMRR/19th MRD seems to be holding the way in/out

It is possible that the 204th Motor Rifle Regiment is around, too. That said, what's left of the 144th MRD is outside the pocket: this is on the northern side of it, in the Borova area.

It sounds about right but I would like to note

• RU claims 488 mr regiment of 144 mr division was in Lyman as late as 29-Sept
• At least some units of 20th CAA ran away 
• Yesterday few of the units above might escape - Borodai was extremely nervous yesterday, on the verge of panic. 

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

BARS is something like 'Putin's Republican Guards': they're drafted from the Russian Cossack Association, handsomely paid (US$3,500 a month, plus allowances and awards), highly motivated, and well-equipped.

Well, I have a problem with the above. Let me show how BARS-13 fighter looks in real life

This is the second in command

 

One fighter

 

Another fighter

 

Local party

 

And they are supplied by crazy Armenian guy (he literally drive everyday under fire)

 

Who is using soviet era van

 

Not exactly a well-equipped elite unit. Having said that we should not confuse them with Mobisk. They are experienced and motivated fighters. And their command is experienced, motivated and unlike RU regulars it is flexible.  They are not uber warriors but they are no slouches when it comes to fighting either. 

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

For involved ZSU units, the following can be assessed:
Kupyansk
- 92nd Mech
- 3rd Tank
- Kraken SF (battalion)
- possibly a battalion of the 80th Motor

Oskil
- 1st 'Ivan Bohun' Special Purpose Brigade (est. 4 Mar 22; including troops from 19 countries; has 6 battalions)
- 25th Airborne
- 66th Mech (persistently ignored by Ukrainian social media, but reported often by the Russians)
- 17th Tank
- 4th NG Brigade
- Azov SF (battalion)

Lyman
- 4th Tank
- 79th Airborne
- 81st Airborne

Siversk
- 80th Airborne
- 114 TD
- 115 TD

Bakhmut is defended by
- 58 Motor
- 72nd Mech
- 93rd Airborne
- 28th Artillery
- at least a brigade (in total) of the TD, but I'm not sure what units are involved.

Additional units 'detected', but not localised, yet known as involved 'somewhere in northern Donbass' are:
- 1st Tank

 

Cannot help much with UKR units but RU mentions:

• 4th tank brigade
• 17th tank brigade
• 25th Airborne
• 80th airborne assault
• 66th mechanized brigade

However, that could be from Western sources. 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

 

That, plus a lot of "Russia good/ West bad/ Ukraine nazi". He's mad, mad I tell you!

[FancyCat]

Christ, no hint of deescalation.

 

[FancyCat]