How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, DerKommissar said:

Until people start forgetting and start voting to cut military funding. This is straightforward, but inevitably doomed to cause another invasion. Isolation hasn't caused the desired results, yet.

Still, it seems to be on the path, we're on right now. Newton's first law and all that.

It also strongly depends on what we understand to be permanent. Containment/ deterrence works good enough for Republic of Korea (not that it's a nice situation for them, but definitely manageable) and it has  been almost 70 years since the shooting war ended.
Having said that, I'm all for effecting  political and mental change in Russia, it would be great if the West and Russia itself could somehow make that happen. I just don't think that we could realistically count on that happening when considering the shape of the post-war order. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Haiduk? I disagree, he has been one of the sanest reporters directly from the Ukraine we have.  I think I saw him lose his temper exactly once in all this and it was back in Phase I when the Russians were literally at the gates of Kyiv.

I meant myself.

Glad see you still think I am coherent, even if my writing is lousy.

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I suspect the best we can do with Russia is containment and let China deal with their "boy".

Just hoping we have any choices besides very  and never mind.

[NamEndedAllen]

The time may be ripe for working on a solution to one major problem with the UN Security Council: Russia. Russia has clearly trashed the spirit and likely some of the letters of UN rules. But on its own UNSC cannot remove a permanent member - Russia - because such members may veto any of its actions. The other route is removal from the UN itself. But iirc that process needs both the General Assembly AND the UNSC approval. Back to square one.

 

However…Russia was never made a permanent member of the UNSC. It holds the former Soviet Union’s seat as “the inheritor” of that deceased member. Is there a route to a successful challenge that the process by which Russia occupies the former USSR seat was invalid? BTW the PRC China holds its seat in a different way, again IIRC. The UN simply chose to recognize one delegation over the other (Nationalist) delegation.

China is another potential roadblock via a veto of *any* approach. Today. But the art of compromise (“politics”) could have at least a chance in that instance. And circumstances change.

[TheVulture]

At risk of derailing this discussion with some actual battlefield events, 92md Mechanized brigade units apparently destroyed a Russian artillery position at Tabaivka, some 20km SE of Kupiansk. No indication of from what range, but maybe gives some indication of how far they've pushed from the Oskil river from that bridgehead.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by TheVulture

[dan/california]

More like erased...

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

At risk of derailing this discussion with some actual battlefield events, 92md Mechanized brigade units apparently destroyed a Russian artillery position tat Tabaivka, some 20km SE of Kupiansk. No indication of from what range, but maybe gives some indication of how far they've pushed from the Oskil river from that bridgehead.

 

Thanks Vulture, today's discussion has devolved into wishful thinking about RU's political future.  This picture reminds me of the importance of continuing degradation of RU forces relative to what the endgame looks like in UKR.  And in Moscow. 

Meanwhile, BillBindC on previous page shared report that new RU mobiks being shoved into Kupyansk front.  I was already surprised that RU can't seem to stop UKR on Oskil/Lyman fronts, given that they could've moved all the Kharkiv front troops there.  Now they are so desperate they are trying to hold the line w cannon fodder?????  This is getting curiouser and curiouser.....

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

how do you get Russians to accept it?

Because Russians brought up to fear and venerate authotities. The power in Russia always considered as sacral thing. Russians can grumble of kitchens about authorities and own hard life, but..."All powers from the God". But God is omniphutent, so power, which need to venerate must be with "strong hand".  Beacuse of this I wrote about "steel hand in velvet glove". Initially new Russian powers must be like this. Else "deep Russian people" didn't accept anything 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Thanks Vulture, today's discussion has devolved into wishful thinking about RU's political future.  This picture reminds me of the importance of continuing degradation of RU forces relative to what the endgame looks like in UKR.  And in Moscow. 

Meanwhile, BillBindC on previous page shared report that new RU mobiks being shoved into Kupyansk front.  I was already surprised that RU can't seem to stop UKR on Oskil/Lyman fronts, given that they could've moved all the Kharkiv front troops there.  Now they are so desperate they are trying to hold the line w cannon fodder?????  This is getting curiouser and curiouser.....

Or what is left of them. Many of these guys reportedly run north through the border and deserted. Izium troops lost a lot of equipment and I'm not sure are in shape to do anything. I'll risk a guess that untrained mobiks won't improve this situation that much...
What I'm looking for while reading various OSINT people is info on RU moving some substantial units from the south to the Kharkiv front, but nothing happens so far.

 

In other news , Solovyov and Simonyan are trashing the mobiliation:

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Why do you guys keep sidestepping NATO as an answer to not being invaded?

Hmmm... I think better to ask about this Germany, France and Italy

By the way somebody from Polish government has offered today next formula, how to prevent Russian nukes on Ukraine - to accept Ukrainian membership in NATO immediately and put Russia ultimatum to withdraw own troops from occupied territories - else article 5. But I doubt even USA will agree.

I suppose our way is "New Commonwealth" (UKR, Poland, Baltia) + UK

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So I would offer that you undertake a learning journey into this area: https://www.rand.org/topics/psychological-warfare.html

Closely linked to Influence operations:

https://jpia.princeton.edu/news/strategic-influence-operations-call-action

And the concepts of Reflexive Control:

https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2017/02/01/disinformation-and-reflexive-control-the-new-cold-war/
 

And subversive warfare:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/understanding-subversion-considerations-our-special-forces-waller

I think you will find that 1) this is an enormously complex field of operations, far beyond WW2 propaganda, and 2) no, western governments do not practice this on their own people.  Governments do strategic communications and public affairs but conducting psychological operations directly at ones citizenry occurs in autocratic regimes and not so much in western democracies.

 

Thank you.

In return, I can only offer you "big nasty pointy teeth".

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

Or what is left of them. Many of these guys reportedly run north through the border and deserted. Izium troops lost a lot of equipment and I'm not sure are in shape to do anything. I'll risk a guess that untrained mobiks won't improve this situation that much...
What I'm looking for while reading various OSINT people is info on RU moving some substantial units from the south to the Kharkiv front, but nothing happens so far.

 

In other news , Solovyov and Simonyan are trashing the mobiliation:

jeez, the way they refer to Putin.  that poor distraught Supreme commander is being undermined by his flunkies.

[Cederic]

Escalation - Counter Terror Operation is 'gloves off'.

 

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Good thing they can go to a place where people speak Russian almost exclusively, if they really want to.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

"natural state" imo, if there is a lesson to take from the experiences in the Middle East, nation building is impossible. Nation changing is near impossible.

Not quite.  Nation building is a concept that works when the populace wants what you have to offer.  The Middle East is a perfect example of them not wanting what is for sale.  HOWEVER, nation influencing is possible.  Jordan, for example, is not what it used to be.  I'd even say that Iraq is, at least for now, better off than it was under Saddam.

European Russians, at least, show a lot of signs that they want what the West has to sell.  So far they haven't wanted it bad enough to give up on their ingrained bully on the block mentality, but given certain conditions and enough time I think it is possible to at least get them to not be inclined towards genocide.  At the very least ensuring that should they try to act on that impulse again that they'll get crushed before they cause too much damage.

Look at Georgia, for example.  All kinds of problems, but they are light years ahead of Russia despite having a common history.  Ukraine is the same way.  The Baltic states as well.

The best evidence that Russia can change to being a less dangerous state is Putin's attitude towards Ukraine.  It's not just the old imperialistic racism, it's the knowledge that a free country that is on its borders with Russian speakers is a really bad idea from an autocrat's standpoint. Putin, despite all his consolidated power, is afraid Russians might get some "funny ideas" in their heads.  I don't think he isn't wrong about this.

What this boils down to is crushing Russia now, keeping them crushed until they agree to own up to their crimes, then see if they are willing to play nice with everybody.  If so, cautiously ease up sanctions and monitor how things go.  If in 5-10 years they show signs of learning from their mistakes, invite them back into international organizations on a trial basis.  If they don't, keep them shut out.  And if at any time they start to show signs of being aggressive again, hit them hard right away.

This is a practical path forward that is neither the Marshall Plan nor the Morgenthau Plan.  It lets Russia sort things out for itself, but with careful minding by the West to ensure that they progress towards something better.

I've not heard anybody else come up with anything better.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

Both NS1 and NS2 seems to be having problems and there's talks of sabotage:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-sweden-9ac152e4e4a195bb78dacd4d270ef9cb

https://www.morgenpost.de/politik/article236531971/pipeline-nord-stream-2-gazprom-sabotage.html

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/pressure-drop-on-both-strings-of-the-gas-pipeline-526/

This seems like some sort of economic warfare but who on whom, I have no idea.

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/25/2022 at 6:14 AM, The_Capt said:

Excellent points.

On 9/25/2022 at 6:14 AM, The_Capt said:

They often ask me what questions to ask new hires and I always go with “what do you read?”  The answer I am looking for is fiction: we wrap our lies in “truth” and we hide our truths in our lies.

Now you are just showing off how clever you are.

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Both NS1 and NS2 seems to be having problems and there's talks of sabotage:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-germany-berlin-sweden-9ac152e4e4a195bb78dacd4d270ef9cb

https://www.morgenpost.de/politik/article236531971/pipeline-nord-stream-2-gazprom-sabotage.html

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/pressure-drop-on-both-strings-of-the-gas-pipeline-526/

This seems like some sort of economic warfare but who on whom, I have no idea.

It's a joke of course, but I'm sure many people in CEE would feel comfortable knowing that it is physically impossible to go back to business as usual. 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Boris Totikov, head of Rocket and Artillery Troops for the 35th Combined Arms Army:

Col. Andrey Bryzgalin, unit unknown but buried in same cemetery and at same time as Col. Totikov:

Maj. Ilya Drokov, unit unknown:

 

Maj. Alexander Finkov, head of Radiation, Chemical and Biological Service for the 439th Guards Rocket Artillery Brigade:

Col. Alexander Eliseev (dead or severely wounded), Military Commissar for Ust-Ilimsk:

 

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

The time may be ripe for working on a solution to one major problem with the UN Security Council: Russia. Russia has clearly trashed the spirit and likely some of the letters of UN rules. But on its own UNSC cannot remove a permanent member - Russia - because such members may veto any of its actions. The other route is removal from the UN itself. But iirc that process needs both the General Assembly AND the UNSC approval. Back to square one.

 

However…Russia was never made a permanent member of the UNSC. It holds the former Soviet Union’s seat as “the inheritor” of that deceased member. Is there a route to a successful challenge that the process by which Russia occupies the former USSR seat was invalid? BTW the PRC China holds its seat in a different way, again IIRC. The UN simply chose to recognize one delegation over the other (Nationalist) delegation.

China is another potential roadblock via a veto of *any* approach. Today. But the art of compromise (“politics”) could have at least a chance in that instance. And circumstances change.

Seriously, the major problem with the UN Security Council is not Russia. It is the Security Council itself in general and especially having permanent members with veto powers. The latter being in that position by no other merit than having nukes.

Veto power is nothing but a "get out of jail for free" card. Yes, right now Russia is the culprit but next time it can be any other veto power. China, USA under Trump 2.0, France with LePen, etc.

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/25/2022 at 8:23 AM, Combatintman said:

I've certainly been following the discussions about the manoeuvring in the Kremlin, what's going on with the nats and all that and having an idle thought or two about how you could influence some of that.  An academic exercise for me

Sounds like a fun thing to think about.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Ahhh, but some sanctions have already been lifted - or at least aren't being enforced. I read a report over the weekend how Russian tankers are trans-shipping oil at sea to western flagged tankers for delivery to western countries. A drop in the bucket perhaps, but it adds up. And there's probably a lot more nudge nudge, wink wink going on.

Sanctions are more placebo than panacea. To be effective they need to be severe, and if severe enough the main effect is to create a population that hates you more than their own leadership.

Yeah, I don't agree with this at all.  Neither does anybody I've read that's gone deep into the details.  Unlike so many other situations, Russia's economy was uniquely vulnerable to them.  Given time Russia can recover some of its industrial capacity, but it is going to be a paltry compared to where they were in 2014 or even in 2022.  Why?  Because Russia imported pretty much everything that improved Russia's standard of living.  Laziness and corruption produced a huge dependency upon the West, now it's gone with nothing to replace it.  Now that they got cut off form their primary revenue stream, they're really screwed.

For sure no sanctions regime is air/water tight, but it doesn't have to be to have an impact.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I wonder if the would-be-Mobiks are catching on that burning the conscription centers and killing the officers in charge is quite doable?  All it takes is one person with a half decent plan and it's done.  No needs to wrestle with police when there is a more effective solution.

Obviously this isn't a total solution.  But going directly after the symbols and apparatus for mobilization could build up people's confidence to try other things, like hitting the police stations.

Steve

[fireship4]

"Russia's FSB detains and expels Japanese consul for alleged spying - agencies"

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-fsb-detains-expels-japanese-consul-alleged-spying-agencies-2022-09-26/

 

I had been thinking of making a post of reasonable weight regarding some of the topics touched on recently, including statements about Scotland and Wales being 'self-governing', Northern Ireland being 'occupied territory', the sapient status of Russians (including presumably those Ukrainian grandfathers who fought in the GPW, several forum members and their relatives), the current nuclear brinkmanship, the nature of a modern democratic nation state as it lives in the heads of its populace and institutions, and the extent to which a society can be considered 'open' or 'closed'. 

In lieu of the last two subjects those interested may find a 1988 article in The Economist by Karl Popper worth reading: https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2016/01/31/from-the-archives-the-open-society-and-its-enemies-revisited

The verbosity and frequency of posts to the thread make it hard to get a handle on without some scanning and skipping.  I'd advocate that news posts from members like Haiduk and Grigb continue apace, while more attention be paid to concision in the expression of opinion and discussion in the thread.

Glad to hear some Western nations are averse to lies in theatre, and I consider there to be silver lining to the cack-handedness (camoflage in a virtual studio and misguided WordArt) I witnessed where 'information warfare' faces the home front, as I do in the case of our unruly classrooms.

[chuckdyke]

Artillery Mission.