How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

My oft repeated statement this weekend wasn't 'worry about the mobilization'. It was 'worry about what happens when the mobilization fails'.

That should go on a T-Shirt, but by the time it arrives it might already be outdated

Steve

[MikeyD]

I was genuinely surprised to see TOW being used in Ukraine. If its a question of ATGM supply-and-demand, one would imagine we have a lot more spare in-storage TOWs to provide than any other system.

[Grigb]

Regarding Tac Nukes - RU Nats are throwing around the idea of Tac Nuke strike at Yavoriv military base to warn NATO. They belive West will be scared by RU resolve and will back off.

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I was genuinely surprised to see TOW being used in Ukraine. If its a question of ATGM supply-and-demand, one would imagine we have a lot more spare in-storage TOWs to provide than any other system.

My thought was "**** yeah!" 

This is a first for me too. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding Tac Nukes - RU Nats are throwing around the idea of Tac Nuke strike at Yavoriv military base to warn NATO. They belive West will be scared by RU resolve and will back off.

This is the thinking that is most likely to lead us down the nuke road... Russians thinking the West's resolve will cave.  This is why I've long feared the RU Nats deposing Putin.  They are fanatics and fanatics are just the sort of people to use a nuke.

Steve

[billbindc]

"Simonyan exclaimed: “Let me remind you that in 1905, small things like these led to the first mutiny of an entire military unit in the history of our country. Is that what you want?” She starkly warned: “You’re toying with armed people.”"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-top-cheerleaders-panic-over-mobilization-mutiny

It's quite a tell that Putin's main propagandists are seeing the widening gyre that we see saying it publicly. 

[Letter from Prague]

The spice weapons must flow!

[The_MonkeyKing]

31 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I was genuinely surprised to see TOW being used in Ukraine. If its a question of ATGM supply-and-demand, one would imagine we have a lot more spare in-storage TOWs to provide than any other system.

If I had to guess Ukraine has completely run out on it modern ATGM like the stugna. This is got to be the replacement for the heavy long range infantry ATGM.

[sburke]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ah we live in a magical time when none of that matters - the end of expertise.  All you need is an internet connection and voila, anyone can be an expert on the employment of psychological operations.  And then you can declare that expertise to the world and pass sage definitive judgements - hell, you can start a YouTube channel or podcast if you like.

Truly an Age of Ignorance in an ocean of free information.

it is Tik Tok now old man.

[The_Capt]

55 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

What's the alternative for Putin? There's no way back for him now.

If he decided to stop the war, apologise profusely to everybody, and pay huge sums in reparations, he might get rid of the sanctions, or at least some of them. But could he survive that politically? Licking the boot of the nefarious and morally corrupt West after all his strong-man bluster?

He can't win. But he still has a slim chance of not losing.

There is no viable alternative for Putin.  The alternative for Russia is to remove him and his immediate circle from power, find someone clean enough we can work with, blame it all on Putin and "those guys", and walk back from complete disaster by putting this whole thing back into the diplomatic arena.

What does bother me about all of this is that we box ourselves in some ways and conveniently sidestep others:

- Putin has had too long to consolidate power - he will never be overthrown. Or in the same vein: "all Russians are evil and support Putin"

- We cannot negotiate with Putin (or Russia) except through the barrel of a gun because he is not a rational actor who is smoking his own supply.

- Putin is out of options in a war that is existential for him, and he has nuclear weapons.

- "Oh that is silly, Putin will never use nukes because...reasons". 

- So Putin is 'mobilizing' in a hope to drag the war on; however, his military base is eroding, while Ukraine's is accelerating and it is very likely Russia is going to lose. 

- Even if we end the war on some lines, we will not re-normalize until reparations/warcrimes etc.  This Putin will never do.

There is logic here that does not add up.  And no matter how one slices it, the answer is remove Putin. 

[Grigb]

I got a feeling that Wagnerite detachment (that ran way to Dachas) got destroyed. Today Rybar completely skipped them as if they did not exist. Regarding fighting at Bakhmut he said following:

Quote

Detachments of "Wagnerians" continue to develop an offensive towards the Soledar — Bakhmut highway (Artemovsk) from the southern outskirts of Bakhmutsky.

Sounds nice but let's put this on the map.

The new advance is in a completely different place using a completely different path to Bakhmut. As if they do not like the previous Pokroske-Bakhmut path anymore. 

Together with Rybar silence on Dacha friends I can only conclude the Wagnerite detachment that got in to Bakhmut ceased to exist as combat-effective unit.  

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, definitely what was meant.  Looking at the other thoughts from Kofman they are the same as we see here.  So this time I think we should give Kofman a break

Steve

Fine.  I am still annoyed with all these guys.  They are incredibly smart, educated and well read, and they had access to all sorts of advice - they should have known better by about day 3.

But forgiveness, next to cleanliness, next to the hand sanitizer in heaven..etc.

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

it is Tik Tok now old man.

And what the hell is a YouTube short?!  Oh good, even less information.

[FancyCat]

You know, there was a way the Russian Government could have mobilized that might have kept the entire population of Russia from panicking, but whether due to incompetence and the inability for a mafia state to function properly, or due to deliberate chaos, they absolutely cut short the timeline of Russian collapse by quite a bit of time. 

 

 

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I really struggle to understand people that take this mobilization seriously.

To me it looks less like a military gearing up for large scale war and more like a cargo cult making something shaped like a military in the quasi religious hopes of getting their win in the Great Patriotic War to happen again.

I had saw a article but i didn't click on it, suggesting that Putin and the Russian government's admiration for the Great Patriotic War, had seeped deeper than one would assume, and that essentially it has decayed the Russian military's ability to operate as a modern military. 

Sadly I did not click on it. 

[A Canadian Cat]

On 9/24/2022 at 8:05 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Back to The_Capt's concern about Russia breaking up and 6000 nukes being handled by a lot of new people... that's a very serious long term scary thought.  But it is less scary than Putin, the guy who has controll of them right now, ordering one or more to be used.  I'd rather us not have to think about either scenario, but since we do I'm not sure which one is worse.

Indeed. My issue is given recent history - since WW2 Russia or the USSR has been a malevolent force in this world - I'd like to see that end. Not just end for five years while some fascist nationalist rebuilds the Russian army to try again. It would be nice to have a true generational change and the only way i see that is a total failure of the Russian state and a significant break up.

While it is true having 6000 nukes floating around is scary so is having a desperate despot musing about using one. Frankly so is some even harder core nationalist getting control of the country.

All the scenarios sound scary only one might actually end the threat for real.

[FancyCat]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

...He could be wrong though, particularly about the Caucasus. And the West has at least one client (Georgia) able to stir the pot there.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/08/georgia-nato-eu-russia/

Georgia is not a Western client state. 

[Grigb]

RU CIT

Regarding RU public mood

Quote

But, on the other hand, mobilization also brings some positive changes. By declaring mobilization, Vladimir Putin violated an unspoken agreement under which society did not interfere in politics, and in return the authorities tried not to touch society. For the first time in recent months, we are seeing changes in the mood in Russian society. This is reflected in the sharply increased views of the articles of the Medusa edition, and in the huge growth (+100,000) in the number of subscribers of Pavel Chikov's telegram channel (Agora). This indicates that a much larger number of people have a need [now] for objective independent information about everything related to the war, mobilization and Russia in general.

 

About Mobilized training

Quote

Judging by the first reports that we see, the training time for the mobilized will be very short: two weeks, a maximum a month. If the tactical pause had continued on the front line, the Russian Armed Forces would have had the opportunity to train the mobilized in a calmer environment. But since the AFU continues offensive operations in the southern direction and in the northeastern part of Ukraine (closer to the Kharkiv region), it becomes almost impossible for pro-Russian forces to hold the front line there, so the mobilized can be used to hold this line of defense...

There was a confirmation from the wife of a mobilized man from Lipetsk that her husband's unit was sent to the front line in Donbass after one day of training and without a medical examination. Her husband also said that he was being sent to the 237th motorized rifle regiment of the 3rd motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, which is just fighting in the Liman direction.

Thus, the mobilized are sent to places where there is an acute shortage of personnel in the Russian army, while there is still enough of equipment for them.

 

[FancyCat]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's all good, but we have to keep in mind that Putin was warned about serious consequences for starting the war in the first place.  That didn't stop him from doing it.

The disaster of this mobilization effort will hopefully get us going towards regime change quicker than he can contemplate hitting the button.

Steve

Recall that 2014 was not just the one off red line crossing event, we had the red lines in Syria for chemical weapons, we had Russian interference in Europe and the U.S since then, Putin has been running rampant with multiple European governments acting largely like business is usual in addition to the U.S. including assassinations and bombings on EU territory. 

Why I insist the West needs to not let Putin get away with anything has precisely to do with the fact he launched this invasion in the first place, he clearly has not taken anything away from the West's resolve that isn't defined as "weak".

[kraze]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

There is no viable alternative for Putin.  The alternative for Russia is to remove him and his immediate circle from power, find someone clean enough we can work with, blame it all on Putin and "those guys", and walk back from complete disaster by putting this whole thing back into the diplomatic arena.

So there will be another war in Ukraine (or not only) in 5-10 years.

Also because "diplomatic arena" means nobody gets punished for all the warcrimes and reparations aren't getting paid.

[FancyCat]

Thread, for a contrast to the rosier takes that the mobilization may actually backfire on Putin. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk got info? 

No. I suppose, this is BM Oplot, which belongs to Malyshev plant as demo specimen was handed over to some unit. Or even this is third tank, so called Oplot-2M, being ordered by Ukrspetsexport compnay in March 2021 as one more demonstrator. Probably Malyshev plant at last finished its production.

Up to 2021 two BM Oplots were manufactured - one remained as property of Malyshev plant, other was transferred to USA in October of 2021.

Since 2020 Oplot project was under R&D upgrade works, named "Bastion", which have to substitute Russian parts of the tank. First specimen of new Oplot should be produced in 2023, but the war has begun   

[FancyCat]

Something else to keep in mind, Russia is escalating diplomatically as well. Actions like snubbing the UN Security Council, continued violations of IHL, Russia is illustrating the uselessness of the international order, and as a permanent member of that Council, it should have been first in keeping it intact. If Russia has decided to throw it away like trash, it substantially increases the chances it collapses overall, especially if not punished. 

If Russia is going to escalate, it clearly at this point, does no good to not match him. 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, kraze said:

So there will be another war in Ukraine (or not only) in 5-10 years.

Also because "diplomatic arena" means nobody gets punished for all the warcrimes and reparations aren't getting paid.

I am very confident that reparations and war crimes prosecution are going to be a critical condition for lifting of sanctions and re-normalization.

As to "another Ukraine in 5-10", I am not sure what you are arguing - if Russia removes Putin it will still start another war?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

If I had to guess Ukraine has completely run out on it modern ATGM like the stugna. This is got to be the replacement for the heavy long range infantry ATGM.

TOWs were included in August aid package. As I recall 1500 missiles. 

It's hard to say either we saved producing of RK-2/3 missiles for Stugna-P/Korsar or not. "Artem" factory is working, but in missile manufacturing were involved many factories, including optical factory in Izium. So, probably we will duffer a lack of domestic ATGM soon, but I've seen videop of Stugna launch about two weeks ago