How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Regarding decree

Quote

The head of the human rights group "Agora" Pavel Chikov analyzed the decree on partial mobilization

The decree does not give any details of mobilization. [It is] formulated as broadly as possible. The President leaves discretion to the Minister of Defense.

In fact, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will decide who, from where and in what quantity to send to war.

The mechanism will be as follows: the Ministry of Defense will form quotas for mobilization for each region of Russia. The governors will be responsible for their execution. Ramzan Kadyrov clearly knew something when he announced the self-mobilisation of the regions.

First of all, reservists will receive mobilization orders — these are men who have served in the army who have signed a contract to stay in the reserve.

Secondly, men who are in reserve in the categories that I wrote about yesterday above.

Shoigu set the bar at 300,000 people. If more is needed, the decree allows the mobilization of an unlimited number of conscripts.

 

[Grigb]

Interesting change in tone of RU oppo

Quote

Navalny's associates called on Russians to go to street rallies. And they stated that they support any form of protest, including the arson of military enlistment offices
"I can absolutely say that our team will support any form of protest against this. If you run away from the draft, this is good, we support you, we are ready to provide informational and legal assistance. If you go out to protest actions, we support this, we are ready to provide coordination assistance, that is necessary. If you are ready to do big things, including setting fire to the military enlistment office, we support this and are also ready to provide some assistance," Ivan Zhdanov said

 

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting change in tone of RU oppo

 

I mean they totally should. That will save a lot of time and effort for their enlistment officers. Just come to a "protest" and grab any of those "protesters" standing on their knees and begging putin not to enlist them - and enlist them. So that they can tell AFU in person how hard they have fought the system for the past 8.5+ years.

Edited September 21, 2022 by kraze

[Letter from Prague]

26 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding decree

 

So again it is set up in a way they can mobilize everyone except Moscow and Petersburg. Very unexpected.

I hope Ukraine is in the process of building second (or ideally third) Grom-2 factory.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So again it is set up in a way they can mobilize everyone except Moscow and Petersburg. Very unexpected.

I hope Ukraine is in the process of building second (or ideally third) Grom-2 factory.

Looks like this time they are going to squeeze at least Petersburg

Quote

A mobilization commission has already been organized in St. Petersburg. It is headed by Governor Alexander Beglov
This was reported to the Fontanka newspaper by the city administration.

Smolny [Gov building] explained the Commission will work in accordance with the task (in terms of the number of mobilized), which the General Staff will set for St. Petersburg.

 

[Lethaface]

13 hours ago, kraze said:

Yes russians are the root of the problem. Not just putin, not just their army, all of russians. They all caused this, collectively. All must be held responsible - which is where things are going, slowly but surely at least with their neighbors. And not just Baltic countries, but even Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Countries sending them all back home is a great damn start - look how enraged they get and how they go from "let's all be friends" pretense to suddenly crying e.g. "Estonia is **** and must be gangraped by our glorious army".

It's delightful to watch and it's the least they deserve.

And don't give me this "final solution" BS. Russians came here claiming to "finally solve the Ukrainian problem". In 7 months of outrageous warcrimes nobody in Russia was ever against any of it, even if they pretended there was none of it for 8 years prior. So let them reap what they sow.

And Arabs correct? and you are in favour of all of them disappearing right? Don't tell me to give you no bull**** when your spouting garbage. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Lethaface

[Aragorn2002]

40 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because any 'western civilization', that is remote enough from other civilizations, does that to your view. Through a twisted lens of comfort people tend to find explanations for everything that will go in line with their worldview. Isn't pure evil is just a fantasy stuff present in movies and it's always two sides who are at fault (which allows to not pick a side and stay "above it")? Here in Europe we aren't raping and brutally torturing people for fun - so why anyone else would? And if somebody is enraged at somebody else - he's the bad guy. After all russians do warcrimes mostly in silence, yeah sometimes they make a video but you can just hit the skip button.

It's why it's so hard to explain Russia to French or Spanish, but you don't need to say a word to Polish or Czech, not to mention Lithuanian or Latvian.

That.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Next Russian Estimate... 120% of wounded and killed Russian soldiers return to service by making 2 soldiers with only one thanks to bionic prostheses and the superior will of the Russians.

Secret Russian video footage of their foolproof HIMARS killer....

 

(embedded)

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

And Arabs and you are in favour of all of them disappearing right. Don't tell me to give you no bull**** when your spouting garbage.

 

No, he doesn't say that. While you provoke him to do it

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Ukraine still has some months of numerical superiority ( actually the announced 300K still doesn't give RU numerical parity, am I right?).

Numerical parity and parity in conbat power are not necessarily the same. I think this number of 300,000 is just too well rounded to fit a narrative rather than any reality. Why not 3,000,000?  How is even conceivable that the Russian Army will absorb those 300,000 recruits? Either we need to get ready to witness some really messy Russian counteroffensives, or this is just rhethoric to rely on terrorising Ukraine with what actually Russia has plenty more that Ukraine, long range strategic weapons.

I think that Putin is playing what in poker is called "angle shooting".

Edited September 21, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Huba]

Just now, LongLeftFlank said:

(embedded)

Wow, talk about a blast from the past! Gotta go shoot some Zerg...

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

And Arabs correct? and you are in favour of all of them disappearing right? Don't tell me to give you no bull**** when your spouting garbage. 

My man, ANYONE, who came to Israeli land to kill and live in place of the killed, should disappear from that land by riding back home in fridges. And Israel made sure they did. And I can complete relate.

[LongLeftFlank]

And folks wonder why BFC never touched the Arab-Israeli wars....

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

No, he doesn't say that. While you provoke him to do it

he did say it. Look back at what he said. Israel fixing the root cause by killing all arabs.

The thin veil he has kept up to hide his morbid fantasies slipped a bit.

Anyway I'm done with the subject I just don't like reading extremist stuff if he keeps that for other websites that would be great.

 

[Huba]

Just now, BletchleyGeek said:

Numerical parity and parity in conbat power are not necessarily the same. I think this number is just too well rounded to fit a narrative rather than any reality. How is even conceivable that the Russian Army absorb those recruits? Either we need to get ready to witness some really messy Russian counteroffensives, or this is just rhethoric to rely on terrorising Ukraine with what actually Russia has plenty more that Ukraine, long range strategic weapons.

I think that Putin is playing what in poker is called "angle shooting".

Realistically I think we can expect relatively quick arrival of reservists to the units already deployed. Perhaps some more TBGs will be sent in too, generated by units that previously just didn't have manpower to even approach acceptable manning levels (though really few, as I understand everybody available was already sent).
As for creating the new units from scratch, we already know how long it would take - 6 months at a bare minimum, and probably few times that, assuming training and equipment are available. 
I don't see how they are going to provide new units with appropriate comms and support, if they are struggling with what they have already. Will the remaining artillery be diluted to support more units?
What I can see is RU covering the whole line of contact more densely, making aggressive patrolling and infiltration more difficult for UA. But apart from that? Achieving breakthroughs with mech won't be much harder probably, and might result in vastly increased losses for RU. As for using mass of conscripts in offensive operations, the very thought is too horrifying to contemplate...

IMO not much will change in next few months. Kherson will fall to UA. Considerable part of Luhansk will fall to UA too. I wouldn't be surprised if significant UA offensive happens in the south. IF RU could withstand all of that politically, we might get to an interesting point indeed, but for now it's really too far away and there's so much uncertainty that I'd have hard time to take any specific predictions seriously.

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

он сказал это. Оглянитесь на то, что он сказал. Израиль устраняет первопричину, убивая всех арабов.

Тонкая завеса, которую он поддерживал, чтобы скрыть свои болезненные фантазии, немного соскользнула.

Во всяком случае, я закончил с этой темой, я просто не люблю читать экстремистские вещи, если он сохранит это для других веб-сайтов, это было бы здорово.

 

You are insulting a member of this forum for no reason. You are not a doctor to determine the degree of health. Please speak correctly

[BletchleyGeek]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

What I can see is RU covering the whole line of contact more densely, making aggressive patrolling and infiltration more difficult for UA. But apart from that? Achieving breakthroughs with mech won't be much harder probably, and might result in vastly increased losses for RU. As for using mass of conscripts in offensive operations, the very thought is too horrifying to contemplate...

That's my thinking too: those 300,000 (1,000 times 300 btw) probably are meant to provide as you say with a "buffer" and go to the defensive operationally and into the offensive strategically.

[panzermartin]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

he did say it. Look back at what he said. Israel fixing the root cause by killing all arabs.

The thin veil he has kept up to hide his morbid fantasies slipped a bit.

Anyway I'm done with the subject I just don't like reading extremist stuff if he keeps that for other websites that would be great.

 

Kraze has been posting stuff like this since the beginning of the thread. He hasn't received any warning, although in the written official rules here, it is cleary stated as hate speech and a reason to ban someone. On the contrary his posts often get multiple upvotes. Yes, the best war forum on the net... 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[kraze]

Just now, Lethaface said:

he did say it. Look back at what he said. Israel fixing the root cause by killing all arabs.

Israel is solving the root cause by treating both soldiers and people back home, who dress and feed them equally as enemies. Who are not welcome in Israel. If some peaceful Israeli citizen dies to some enemy soldier or terrorist - Israel makes sure to retaliate in a way that makes it very clear that it's not acceptable and they can get you anywhere in the world. Right now Israel is actively fighting only in one country - Syria - that fully deserves it by supporting "Palestine", similarly to how Russia does it with their own artificial "people's republics".

How did you even get to a point of "killing all arabs" I have no idea. If you mean "killing all arabs who come to Israel riding tanks" - then sure. They should do it. They have an absolute right to do it.

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Крейз публикует подобные вещи с самого начала темы. Он не получил никакого предупреждения, хотя в письменных официальных правилах это четко указано как разжигание ненависти и причина для бана кого-либо. Наоборот, его посты часто получают несколько голосов. Да, лучший военный форум в сети... 

Thank God, there were no medical diagnoses

[CHEqTRO]

27 minutes ago, Huba said:

Realistically I think we can expect relatively quick arrival of reservists to the units already deployed. Perhaps some more TBGs will be sent in too, generated by units that previously just didn't have manpower to even approach acceptable manning levels (though really few, as I understand everybody available was already sent).
As for creating the new units from scratch, we already know how long it would take - 6 months at a bare minimum, and probably few times that, assuming training and equipment are available. 
I don't see how they are going to provide new units with appropriate comms and support, if they are struggling with what they have already. Will the remaining artillery be diluted to support more units?
What I can see is RU covering the whole line of contact more densely, making aggressive patrolling and infiltration more difficult for UA. But apart from that? Achieving breakthroughs with mech won't be much harder probably, and might result in vastly increased losses for RU. As for using mass of conscripts in offensive operations, the very thought is too horrifying to contemplate...

IMO not much will change in next few months. Kherson will fall to UA. Considerable part of Luhansk will fall to UA too. I wouldn't be surprised if significant UA offensive happens in the south. IF RU could withstand all of that politically, we might get to an interesting point indeed, but for now it's really too far away and there's so much uncertainty that I'd have hard time to take any specific predictions seriously.

One of the threats that I see to Ukraine in the "term" that arise from this mobilization, that I do not think that is being discussed, is that Russia will be able to generate new units (albeit of poor quality, but still), which can be positoned along the whole border with Ukraine, even on Belarus itself, creating the danger of possible attacks to Chernihiv, Sumy, maybe even Lutsk, etc... Even if those forces lack the strenght to do a proper push into Ukraine, they would still be able to threaten to make small pushes towards the important cities in those Oblast, esentially forcing the Ukranians to dilute their forces on the South in order to be prepared to this eventuality, esentially conceding the inititive back to th Russians. It will still take some time to generate those units, and there is always te possibility of the Russian state collapsig due to the ecnomical and social burden of the mobilization, but if the Ukranians dont launch an offensive on the South on the coming weeks, it will most likely never happen.

Also, lets see what comes out of Belarus, as they might be preparing to join the Russians in an eventual declaration of war 

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Afraid as in the sense of 'unlikely to happen, but if it would be very bad'.
Any (hypothetical!) ethnic cleansing inside Ukraine would very seriously damage the image of Ukraine. That would be the worst long term political damage that could happen.

You didn't listen. The West forced Ukraine to this war. So Ukraine (as the puppet of the West) has already declared it.
Tssk, comrade come on. It's easy to understand.

 

 

So, declaration of war against NATO when? 

Edited September 21, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[kraze]

23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Kraze has been posting stuff like this since the beginning of the thread. He hasn't received any warning, although in the written official rules here, it is cleary stated as hate speech and a reason to ban someone. On the contrary his posts often get multiple upvotes. Yes, the best war forum on the net... 

Never once in this thread I ever posted any call to kill anyone like that ever. I have no idea why "all russians should be held responsible for actions of their army they themselves support" is treated as "hate speech" but when somebody posts "I wish putin and all russian army died for what they do" - it's somehow not hate speech.

Just like I have no idea why I'm repeatedly being called racist whenever I'm not happy with what russians do - when russians themselves are not a race. It's not even an ethnicity. Buryats are an ethnicity. Mongols are a race.

Maybe when your compatriots (or, sometimes unfortunately) friends turn out to be dead and lacking body parts - it's just problematic to do only Love Speech and pretending it's putin personally running around frontlines and raping women - which is a very comfortable world view, I agree - but how exactly hating invaders (of all kinds) makes me "racist" - I have zero idea.

Edited September 21, 2022 by kraze

[FancyCat]

Ukraine has TDF to counter low level Russian pushes along the border. If Russia were to throw the lid off, Ukraine I think will be capable of responding well enough.

From Vox, a Western scholar queried his academic colleagues in Russia, and, well...Ukraine needs to punch Russia some more, to get the idea that their ability to win the war is dead. 3 arguments, China will help them, the West is weak, and technology will not override Russian men. 

https://www.vox.com/world/2022/9/20/23362290/russia-ukraine-china-technology-west-war

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by FancyCat

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Kraze has been posting stuff like this since the beginning of the thread. He hasn't received any warning, although in the written official rules here, it is cleary stated as hate speech and a reason to ban someone. On the contrary his posts often get multiple upvotes. Yes, the best war forum on the net... 

The man is from a country fighting a war against genocidal enemy. His is a different perspective. I think that this would be the case for many other forum members, if we were in his place.  War is by definition collective violence and by definition makes people guilty by association and enemies for no other reason, than their nationality. This extends to emotions about the enemy, which of course tends to be hate. 

The imperative not to say anything racist or "hate-speachy" is something for people not concerned with life or death or, yes, feelings of revenge for the destruction of their country and barbaric murder of their compatriots.   Let us respect that this is a different situation and move along. Nobody is required to support what Kraze is saying but it should be acknowledged this is something else than trolling about WW2 war crimes or Middle East ethnic issues, which the forum rules are intended to prevent.