How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

30 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder what Ukraine can do here. AD can help but will not entirely prevent it. They can't strike back due to the Western limits. That limits are never going to go away because Russia will threaten nukes in case of counterattack.

Long term this will prevent any reconstruction of Ukraine and investment there, keeping it destroyed and impoverished. And Russia has enough missiles (if ****ty and inaccurate ones) to keep doing this once a week for decades if they want to.

Should Ukraine regain all her lands, and Russia still insists on lobbing missiles over, sanctions will destroy whatever is left of their missile production, and eventually, Ukraine will gain the long range fire needed to counter it. Consider a few months of Russian missiles hitting Kiev, with Ukraine regained all her lands, and quietly remaining on the border and publicly calling for peace talks, and asking for China and India to step in. It would be near impossible for anyone to side with Russia, or denounce Ukrainian missile responses. 

 

 

[poesel]

33 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder what Ukraine can do here.

Tit-for-tat - blow up one (1) thermal plant somewhere close to the border. Repeat.

UA has attacked Russia in the past, and I doubt anyone (in the west) would oppose that strategy.

[kevinkin]

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/09/white-house-military-weigh-escalation-risk-ukraine-asks-longer-range-missiles/377286/

Nothing really new because we have known the policy is one of titration all year. But the endpoint is near and a little more reagent will turn the indicator blue. 

"The former official pointed out that the United States has changed its mind on what weapons to give numerous times since the conflict began and always under some threat from the Kremlin. 

“Things we couldn't give in January because it was escalatory were given in February. And things we couldn't give in February we can in April. That has been the distinct pattern, starting with, crying out loud, Stingers,” he said, referring to shoulder-launched FIM-92 Stinger missiles.

The former official criticized the U.S. approach as overly incremental and slow. 

“Even when we say yes, when new weapons systems go out, we send two or three as opposed to what they really need. It’s all part of that same caution which leads to more Ukrainian deaths and lengthens this war.”

Edited September 18, 2022 by kevinkin

[FancyCat]

I've followed him for a bit, but i dunno if hes trustable. If Russia gave up Lysychansk without a fight, uh...well, wouldn't that indicate very bad news for Lyman's road to the east? Maybe a trap? 

 

 

 

 

[sburke]

Russian military hospitals refuse to treat so-called "volunteers" who were wounded in Ukraine (gur.gov.ua)

Quote

 

The number of conflicts between different units of the occupying forces is increasing due to inequality in attitudes on the part of the command. One of the battalions of the so-called "Union of Donbas Volunteers" suffered heavy losses during the fighting near Avdiivka. The unit took its wounded to the hospital in Rostov-on-don. However, the hospital staff refused to provide medical assistance to the wounded due to the unit's lack of the status of a regular armed formation. After all, the "Union of Donbas Volunteers" was formed under the program of voluntary mobilization of BARS - the combat army reserve. In all such cases, doctors refer to the direct instructions of the command.

A conflict situation is also brewing between representatives of the Russian Armed Forces and those "mobilized from the territory of the LDPR". Since during the retreat, the Russians threw the "mobilized" in positions without any support and assistance. Because of this, losses in units sometimes reached 100% of the personnel.

Among the personnel of the occupying contingent, information is being discussed about the losses incurred by the Russian Armed Forces during the escape. In particular, that on the territory of the Kharkiv region they left more than 200 units of military equipment, including tanks "T-72B3M", "T-80BVM", "T-80UE", "BMP-2", self-propelled guns and cars. At the same time, it is noted that the largest amount of equipment was left in the Balaklia area on the territory of the repair base

 

 

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/09/white-house-military-weigh-escalation-risk-ukraine-asks-longer-range-missiles/377286/

Nothing really new because we have know the policy is one of titration all year. But the endpoint is near and a little more reagent will turn the indicator blue. 

"The former official pointed out that the United States has changed its mind on what weapons to give numerous times since the conflict began and always under some threat from the Kremlin. 

“Things we couldn't give in January because it was escalatory were given in February. And things we couldn't give in February we can in April. That has been the distinct pattern, starting with, crying out loud, Stingers,” he said, referring to shoulder-launched FIM-92 Stinger missiles.

The former official criticized the U.S. approach as overly incremental and slow. 

“Even when we say yes, when new weapons systems go out, we send two or three as opposed to what they really need. It’s all part of that same caution which leads to more Ukrainian deaths and lengthens this war.”

This has been an idiotic red herring since late march. It only becomes more so as the Russian army dissolves before our eyes. According to all the available information their navy and air force were make believe from the beginning. The whole mess needs to be put out of its misery asap.

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian military hospitals refuse to treat so-called "volunteers" who were wounded in Ukraine (gur.gov.ua)

 

This would be exhibit A.

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've followed him for a bit, but i dunno if hes trustable. If Russia gave up Lysychansk without a fight, uh...well, wouldn't that indicate very bad news for Lyman's road to the east? Maybe a trap? 

 

 

 

 

Unless it rains hard and soon the AFU is going to spend winter encamped in Luhansk's outer suburbs. 

Edited September 18, 2022 by dan/california

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've followed him for a bit, but i dunno if hes trustable. If Russia gave up Lysychansk without a fight, uh...well, wouldn't that indicate very bad news for Lyman's road to the east? Maybe a trap? 

 

 

 

 

If in doubt check the map.

• UKR can reach Lisichansk only from Belohirka
• To reach Lisichansk from Bilohirka they have to secure first Lysichansk Oil Plan (Verkhnekanyanka)
• Oil Plant is not taken so capture of Lisichans is unlikely
• What is likely - recon groups did reach Lisichansk but that's it

 

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Russian military hospitals refuse to treat so-called "volunteers" who were wounded in Ukraine (gur.gov.ua)

 

Compared to the evacuation and treatment of Ukrainian wounded throughout Europe.

 

[FancyCat]

28 minutes ago, Grigb said:

If in doubt check the map.

• UKR can reach Lisichansk only from Belohirka
• To reach Lisichansk from Bilohirka they have to secure first Lysichansk Oil Plan (Verkhnekanyanka)
• Oil Plant is not taken so capture of Lisichans is unlikely
• What is likely - recon groups did reach Lisichansk but that's it

 

He hasn't deleted the tweet yet, but it implies the river has been forded, so not only did the recon groups reach Lisichansk but crossed the river, if the city isn't taken, that sounds like a very dangerous action, easy to be cut off and destroyed. 

It's a big city, maybe Russia does not have enough forces to maintain a full frontline? Of course, might be potentially psyops, but you would think the journalist would be able to ensure its true. 

[FancyCat]

DefMon chimed in. We do know Ukraine has more manpower than Russia. Its really strange to think Russia would concede the city tho. 

 

 

[CAZmaj]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

When the company has 4 APC instead 10. Typical picture since 2017

Are there soldiers INSIDE the APC?

[chuckdyke]

102? I thought she was one of the daughters. Indomitable fighting spirit. She makes a Ghillie Suit no worries, lady the sniper got the eyesight. Somewhere there is a story of an old woman who gives her last penny. 

 

[Offshoot]

An interview with a Russian tank driver POW who is now allowed to help out with trophy vehicles.

It's low level stuff, but he talks about how little training he received to drive a tank, the poor state of Russian equipment, and how his tank crew were the only people he really knew in his unit.

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

An interview with a Russian tank driver POW who is now allowed to help out with trophy vehicles.

It's low level stuff, but he talks about how little training he received to drive a tank, the poor state of Russian equipment, and how his tank crew were the only people he really knew in his unit.

 

“His crew were the only people he knew in his unit” - that is not small.  It means that his unit was not integrated beforehand, or he was an augmentee who was not fully integrated.  Either way it points to at least one unit where you are talking about half-built teams, which means there is a risk they will fight the same way.  Here is where the NCOs are key, they become the integrators of replacements or in a hodgepodge rebuilt unit they quickly pull it together. This matches observations of a poor or non-existent NCO corps in the RA.

Nothing definitive, and could easily be a an anomaly or one-persons perspective.  But it does line up with the overall qualitative problems the RA has been reported to be having.  Cohesion is key to morale, and morale is key to sustaining a will to fight.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

102? I thought she was one of the daughters. Indomitable fighting spirit. She makes a Ghillie Suit no worries, lady the sniper got the eyesight. Somewhere there is a story of an old woman who gives her last penny. 

 

Ukrainian communication strategy has been FLAWLESS, near as makes no matter. It is easier have a good communication strategy when your opponents are are unique combination evil and incompetent, but flawless execution none the less.

Unrelated, it is apparently raining heavily across the Northern 1/2 of Ukraine. Could a portion of the forces facing Belarus possibly be pulled south for one last hard push before the weather closes in there, too? It is my understanding that most of the border with Belarus is a marsh anyway, I doubt it gets easier to maneuver thru in the fall rainy season.

[Kinophile]

27 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Are there soldiers INSIDE the APC?

Uhm...no. 

[Artkin]

48 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Are there soldiers INSIDE the APC?

?

[CAZmaj]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

?

Explanation: I see a bunch of soldiers riding on the top of APC. Hayduk stated there used to be 10 APC per Company and since 2016 there are only 4 thus, I wondered if in addition to a squad of soldiers riding on the top of APC there is another squad sitting inside the same APC?

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, CAZmaj said:

Explanation: I see a bunch of soldiers riding on the top of APC. Hayduk stated there used to be 10 APC per Company and since 2016 there are only 4 thus, I wondered if in addition to a squad of soldiers riding on the top of APC there is another squad sitting inside the same APC?

Before Haiduk even said anything I figured it was a full company. Before counting heads it looks like there are 1.3-1.5 squads on top of every btr. I immediately noticed how low the btr is to the ground, it's overloaded. I would absolutely assume the btr is loaded with troops, or with something very heavy at the least.

[Battlefront.com]

From our favorite Hromadske reporter, her entrance into Izyum to talk with fighters and civilians about the liberation.  I kinda lost it a bit at the end.  If you watch it I'm sure you'll know when and why:

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From Saturday the 17th's ISW report.  This passage up top is what we've touched on over the last few days.  Specifically, what is Russia's strategy for Ukraine?  The northeastern front is wide open, they are diddling around Donetsk City, and Kherson is inevitably going to be lost.  Do they even have a plan?  We didn't come up with one a few pages ago, so maybe ISW has figured out what Russia's post Kharkiv offensive future is?  Let's see...

Quote

Russian failures to rush large-scale reinforcements to eastern Kharkiv and to Luhansk Oblasts leave most of Russian-occupied northeastern Ukraine highly vulnerable to continuing Ukrainian counter-offensives. The Russians may have decided not to defend this area, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s repeated declarations that the purpose of the “special military operation” is to “liberate” Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Prioritizing the defense of Russian gains in southern Ukraine over holding northeastern Ukraine makes strategic sense since Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts are critical terrain for both Russia and Ukraine whereas the sparsely-populated agricultural areas in the northeast are much less so. But the continued Russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City, which are using some of Russia’s very limited effective combat power at the expense of defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives, might indicate that Russian theater decision-making remains questionable.

Nope, they can't figure it out either! 

It's almost like Russia is trying to lose Luhansk.  It's impossible to see how Putin can sell that to Russians, but logically losing it is the best thing for Russia to do.  It has been a resource sink for it over the past 8 years.  It hasn't gained any of the political benefits he expected from it, but has gained pain from it.  Financial and political.  So maybe the best thing to do is let Ukraine take it and be saddled with a gutted, dysfunctional chunk of land?

An alternative is that Putin wants to use Ukraine entering Luhansk as justification for general mobilization.  On the surface this makes sense, however I don't think so.  Putin has got to know by now that all of his fears about going with general mobilization before the war started are valid and stronger now than ever before.  I'd be shocked if he's reversed his thinking.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Surprise, surprise... according to ISW, Ukraine stated the two high ranking Prosecutor deaths in Luhansk were, as speculated, due to infighting between criminal groups:

Quote

Ukrainian officials stated on September 16-17 that Ukrainian partisans did not assassinate Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Prosecutor General Sergey Gorenko and Deputy Prosecutor General Yekaterina Steglenko. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai claimed that LNR internal divisions, specifically the rift between Gorenko and LNR Head Leonid Pasechnik, caused Gorenko’s death.[59] Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak suggested that local organized criminal groups could have assassinated Gorenko or that Russian authorities may be purging witnesses of Russian war crimes.[60] The Ukrainian government has offered an official response to the assassination as of September 17.[61] Various proxy officials claimed on September 16-17 that Ukrainian “terrorists” or “gangs” assassinated Gorenko and Steglenko.[62]

Steve

[JonS]

5 hours ago, Artkin said:

I would absolutely assume the btr is loaded with troops, or with something very heavy at the least.

Soldiers don't make for a heavy load. For one thing, their density is so low they float in water, and on the other hand they just will not stop complaining if the packing ratio gets too high.

[Combatintman]

11 hours ago, poesel said:

Is that just a Twitter rumor, or did Chechens and Wagner really fight in Kherson?

"Contact front - traffic lights!" is the more likely Chechen course of action here.

[BletchleyGeek]

Just read on @Osinttechnical that there are reports of a likely cruise missile strike on an Ukrainian power plant about 60 kms west of Kryvyi Rih

https://www.google.com/maps/place/47°48'38.1"N+31°13'13.3"E/@47.7037926,31.6169417,9.25z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0xc5a25b83f4a091a8!8m2!3d47.810569!4d31.220353

Edit: didn't hit anything important, it seems

Edited September 19, 2022 by BletchleyGeek