How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Obsessed with good reason, I'd say. Western support is the biggest reason why Ukraine is winning.

An unbelievable performance every measure by the Ukrainians is why they are winning. Western aid has however allowed that performance to move from ugly attritional victory that might have taken years to a dynamic offensive that really could end this nightmare by new years. Or at least have Ukraine starting 2023 more or less on the. the 2/24 lines.

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

You are right in general but in specific details it is not as clear cut as you stated.

• RU lost. RU lost even before the war started
• Despite this fact the war in Ukraine is still going on and it might turn to the worst
• As i said - we (me included) consistently underestimate RU Nat capability to prolong and male bloody any conflict they are involved in 

Let me give you an example of how you underestimated RU ISR capabilities

What if I tell you RU Nats saw it weeks before it started?

Here is an example from 31-Aug 8 AM

This is from 30-Aug. Note Balaklya. 

But actually, they noticed UKR preparations in Kharkiv direction at least one month before the offensive started: 

22-Jul

7-Aug

Balaklya and Sukhi Yar are on the roads from Chuhuev to Izum. He basically described UKR offensive intent. 

You are telling me how bad RU ISR is while I was looking for a weeks at RU Nat writing - UKR are concentrating forces at Kharkiv direction for offensive most likely aimed at Izum. 

What if tomorrow RU Nats blow up Nuclear station. What if tomorrow you will have to fight them? What your estimations will be? That their ISR is crap? And what if it is not? What if they have a lot of civilian eyes looking at your every move? What's if they have Telegram based network of volunteer agents all over Ukraine? What if it is incompetence of RU MOD that mask their true HUMINT capabilities? 

Do not underestimate RU Nat ability to take lives of our boys if RU crap hits EU fan.  I cannot be there with boys but at least I try to warn you and others here not to dismiss RU Nat volunteers. It is their turf as well. They can and will surprise you.  

The Capn is not underestimating their ability to be dangerous Bleeps individually and in small groups. They are awful people, and not stupid, and very highly motivated. What he is saying is that the Ru Nats didn't have enough control of the SMO at the beginning to impose any measure of competence on the overall plan for the SMO at the beginning, and now it is TOO LATE. If Girkin and Murz were miraculously appointed as commander and chief of staff today this mess couldn't be saved. By every military measure the Russian forces in Ukraine are beaten, unfixably beaten. The Nats could concieveably commit one or several atrocities/wmd incidents that would inspire NATO to finish this in a week, that would suck, but doesn't change the outcome. And neither do any of their other options, beaten is beaten.

[akd]

RU claims of a UKR breakthrough on the left flank of the UKR Ingulets bridgehead.  Not sure if out of existing bridgehead or a new crossing.

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

Here's a Rybar map from few hours ago. It shows that the base of the breakthrough was widened, and that RU positions next to it by the river are are almost cut off, on both sides. Also the contested area reaches further south - from the tip of it it's just 30 km to the river. If UA manages to secure it's gains and move artillery there, RU situation in the north will become much more serious. ZSU is an inch from being able to fire at Kakhovka area with 155mm, in fact it could probably do so already if they would be willing to take the risk and move some L52 SPGs to Kostromka.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Prigozhin PR campaign has started

Quote

I accidentally crossed paths with Evgeny Prigozhin, asked him a couple of questions...

As you know, now part of the territories have been attacked by the AFU in various directions. There is also information that the governor of the Belgorod region announced the evacuation of Zhuravlevka and Nehoteevka. What do you think [we should] do in this situation?

– I believe that all conscious businesses and all conscious citizens should be ready to repel aggression in all ways possible. To do this, first of all, it is necessary to help residents of border areas to carry out so-called fortification works and build defensive barriers, the scheme of which is in any military textbook.
These are 4 rows of anti-tank pyramids, several rows of barbed wire or tangles, as well as anti-tank ditches measuring 4 by 3 meters, among which minefields are then laid. But I hope the Ministry of Defense will sort this out.
Such structures should appear on the borders of the LPR, the DPR with Ukraine, and also on the border of Russia with Ukraine. Believe me, I am actively organizing this process in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, but if someone needs help, I am ready to immediately send my representatives to support and organize this process.

 

[Grigb]

Tatarsky admits that many RU units indeed received BMP-1 after losses at Kiev

Quote

Did you know that many units were advancing on the Izum (should not be mentioned at night) on MT-LB? After the losses near Kiev, many units received the BMP-1... Did you know about this? We have already seen the T-62.

 

[Huba]

House of cards shakes some more:

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Ru has neither infrastructure nor officers or specialists to enable mobilization. Agent Murz specifically stated that there are no Comms specialists left. 

And there is another critical issue - the incompetence of the whole military-civilian administration chain that is supposed to do it. L-DPR mobilization done by these people was utter disaster. 

That’s good. Let them have their stupid mobilization. I can foresee hundreds of clueless conscripts packed in a deserted barn.

No water, no food, no cloths, no blankets.

Three days later military totally forgot where these conscripts have been sent to. And if these conscripts are smart enough, they all should know what to do…..

 

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

 

For FSB it is nightmare actually - the number of military aged males with access to the guns will increase dramatically. Remember Battle of pub in Kherson? Two drunk army soldiers shot four FSB boiz (well, one escaped). 

 

Well, that is a small sacrifice compares to big payoffs. Losing some dedicate (expendable) FSB officers is, regrettable. But now FSB has a great opportunity to directly control thousands of fresh troops. Their rifles and ammunition come from FSB, supplies come from FSB, even paycheck can come from FSB.

All the compensation is asking for a small favor, Loyalty.    

FSB faction will become a powerful warlord in the future feudalism Russia.

[Bulletpoint]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

An unbelievable performance every measure by the Ukrainians is why they are winning. Western aid has however allowed that performance to move from ugly attritional victory that might have taken years to a dynamic offensive that really could end this nightmare by new years.

Noone says the Ukrainians are not fighting very bravely. We all agree on that. But I think there's much more going on behind the scenes than we can see. NATO cannot intervene directly, but they can supply everything needed to fight a modern war - advanced weapons, military intelligence, and highly qualified military experts to help plan and execute the war on every level. Even help Ukraine with public relations advice on what Zelensky should say and do in public.

I believe that without all this help, Ukraine would be slowly ground low, even with Russian military incompetence and corruption. We already saw this happening before the Himars arrived - UKR lines were constantly being pushed back by sheer weight of Russian artillery fire.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

Some points about what the seemingly increasing tea leaves indicate:

• the local council members are saying they are doing their job, which is to represent the people's best interests.  Given the prison time and general nastiness of the police state they function in, they are either crazy or they really do believe that the people are behind them on this.  Assuming they aren't crazy, then we have to entertain the possibility that there's a lot more trouble brewing amongst the regular population in Russia's two largest and most important cities.
• calls for Putin to be removed are not coming from one ideological bloc, but two widely spaced ones.  Let's call them RU Admins and RU Nats.  Admins are influential because they are part of the regime infrastructure's lowest level (i.e. the one closest to the people).  RU Nats are influential because they are the keepers of traditional Russian views/values.  They are also fanatics.  Having either group single out Putin for removal would be big news, but two different groups?  It's a big red flag.
• the split within the RU Nat camp is also of interest.  The Guardians (those loyal to Putin first, Russia second) are now seemingly in direct opposition to the Ultra Nationalists (those loyal to "Russia" first, Putin second).  Up until now the two have been largely indistinguishable from each other because Putin embodies Russia, therefore no disagreement.  Yes, if you looked into the details of their respective positions you could find some meaningful differences, but ultimately they agreed on Putin leading Russia.  However, now we see that the Ultra Nationalists calling for Putin's ouster and the Guardians calling for replacing high level officials OTHER than Putin.  Yet they still agree on one thing... Russia can not lose and without mobilization losing is inevitable.

These are not signs of a stable political environment for Putin.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

the split within the RU Nat camp is also of interest.  The Guardians (those loyal to Putin first, Russia second) are now seemingly in direct opposition to the Ultra Nationalists (those loyal to "Russia" first, Putin second).  Up until now the two have been largely indistinguishable from each other because Putin embodies Russia, therefore no disagreement.  Yes, if you looked into the details of their respective positions you could find some meaningful differences, but ultimately they agreed on Putin leading Russia.  However, now we see that the Ultra Nationalists calling for Putin's ouster and the Guardians calling for replacing high level officials OTHER than Putin

How big are these factions, and would they be able to plunge Russia into civil war? Or are they just two small fringe groups? I've seen many people talk about these Russian Nationalists, but I can't really figure out if they are a faction to be reckoned with or just some keyboard warriors.

[Chibot Mk IX]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

These people are wrong because they are attempting to do the worst RU sin - change Tsar. Maidan - nickname of UKR change of government is swearing for RU Nats. In their mind it is the worst thing that could happen. This is the major inconsistency in their thinking - Government which is puppet of Tsar is handling SMO badly, but thou must not attempt to remove the Tsar. Basically, they are doing it wrong because instead of advising the Tsar to do the right thing they are attempting to do the worst thing aka removing the Tsar. 

 

He is pointing to two factions (Pro-Putin Liberals and Pro-Putin RU Nats aka Guardians). These two factions have at this period one common objective - keep the damage of war localized for the sake of stability. So, they probably act together for the time being. 

 

To an east Asian , this ideology sounds … so familiar

 

尊皇讨奸！

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_26_incident

Quote

Now, as we are faced with great emergencies both foreign and domestic, if we do not execute the disloyal and unrighteous who threaten the kokutai, if we do not cut away the villains who obstruct the Emperor's authority, who block the Restoration, the Imperial plan for our nation will come to nothing [...] To cut away the evil ministers and military factions near the Emperor and destroy their heart: that is our duty and we will complete it。

 

清君侧！

Sorry, failed to find the English translation. Here is the Chinese wiki link

https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E6%B8%85%E5%90%9B%E4%BE%A7

Any way, it is very similar to the above “To cut away the evil ministers and military factions near the Emperor and destroy their heart”

It’s a very popular Manifesto in ancient Chinese rebellions, uprising.

 

 

P.S  Ironically many usurpers kept this as a oath to show they have “Mandate of Heaven”. Of course this is a deception, kill the “bad influencers” around the Emperor is only the very first step….

[DerKommissar]

Guess it's time to send in Lenin 2.0

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Do not underestimate RU Nat ability to take lives of our boys if RU crap hits EU fan.  I cannot be there with boys but at least I try to warn you and others here not to dismiss RU Nat volunteers. It is their turf as well. They can and will surprise you. 

Ok so this is better how?  Are you telling me they picked up on the UA planning a Kharkiv offensive weeks ahead of time...and did sweet FA to stop it?!  Aaand we are back to broken operational military system.  Look I am sure these RU Nat volunteers are true believers and really cagey tough guys; however, if they have been part of this debacle then I am a little less than concerned about them walking out of a phonebooth and becoming a super army.

If they can surprise...they had better start doing it.  If this clown show picks a fight with the EU, it will escalate to NATO and frankly from what I have seen we could cut thru what is left of the RA - RU Nat volunteers included like **** through a short goose in a long weekend.

The references you are making are making it look worse for them.  They saw but were unable to do anything about the UA taking back what is now being reported 6000 sq kms, in a week.  I don't care if these guys are each super-soldiers who can do one handed chin-ups with no hands - their operational level ISR, C2 and logistics suck well beyond repair in the timeframes of this war.  They are going to be living proof that dedication and belief comes second to hot steel in the right place and right time.

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

What if tomorrow RU Nats blow up Nuclear station. What if tomorrow you will have to fight them? What your estimations will be? That their ISR is crap? And what if it is not? What if they have a lot of civilian eyes looking at your every move? What's if they have Telegram based network of volunteer agents all over Ukraine? What if it is incompetence of RU MOD that mask their true HUMINT capabilities?

And what if they are really in league with the mole people and conduct a sub-terrainian flanking?!  Like I said these a$$hats are well positioned to pull of a nasty insurgency/guerilla war in the LNR-DPR - maybe, if local support holds.  Beyond that they are living in fragmented...and getting more fragmented by the day, military organization.  What is likely to stop the UA at this point...is the UA.  They are going to need to re-set logistical lines and consolidate but so far from what I have seen the RA is not part of this equation.

In reality these clowns have the making of a VEO network that will go underground and make everyone miserable once this thing is over.  Good thing we have about 20 years worth of experience hunting humans in this context.

I gotta be honest, I am really tired of the freakin "boogy man of the week" right now.  We are jumping out of our seats because everything is really dangerous and really scary:

- The Russian Army with all that hardware

- The Black Sea Fleet & the Russian Air Force

- Spetznaz and Wagner clowns

- Russian cruise and hypersonic missiles

- Russian cyber Pearl Harbour 

- Some General Jack-in-the-Box who was a jerk in Syria.

- Russians parked around a nuclear power plant.

- Nukes!!

- the Russian 3rd Corp

- Russian mobilization!! - the other hand coming out.

- Russian escalation dominance.

- RU Nats - whoever the hell they really are

- Ukraine is going to fall

- Ukraine is going to hold on but the war will still be on when my grandkids graduate from college

- Ukraine can't possible take in all this kit and hold on.

- Ukraine can defend but could never pull off an attack

I have to be missing something.  Every week in this war we find something be be scared of, and it has all turned out to be complete and utter BS.  How about we look at the situation, as it unfolded for what it is - a historic military debacle that is likely to break the current Russian regime.  It was doomed from the start, and has only gotten worse.  Sure things could still swing and will likely get uglier but the RA in Ukraine is in death throws - it is keeling over to die, not coiling like a steel spring.  All war is negotiation and right now the Russians are negotiation just how ugly this loss is going to be.

Unless these RU Nats come with an entirely revitalized equipment fleet and logistics backbone to support it, a competitive integrated ISR system, and a completely new military doctrine...you will excuse me if I am not worried.   

 

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by The_Capt

[Aragorn2002]

43 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Noone says the Ukrainians are not fighting very bravely. We all agree on that. But I think there's much more going on behind the scenes than we can see. NATO cannot intervene directly, but they can supply everything needed to fight a modern war - advanced weapons, military intelligence, and highly qualified military experts to help plan and execute the war on every level. Even help Ukraine with public relations advice on what Zelensky should say and do in public.

I believe that without all this help, Ukraine would be slowly ground low, even with Russian military incompetence and corruption. We already saw this happening before the Himars arrived - UKR lines were constantly being pushed back by sheer weight of Russian artillery fire.

Well given the economical sacrificies the West made and is still making, it's good to know it has been worth it. Pity it mostly hits those who haven't much to begin with. It's up to our governments to make sure those people will survive the winter and are compensated as much as possible. All in all quite a proud moment for the 'decadent' and 'weak' Western world. We're not done yet!

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/PEmeryt/status/1569742900015022082

Well informed source about what Ukrainian SF captured in the night raid during Kharkiv offensive: entire set of high-tech EW measures. Including: Electronic Warfare command post, completelly new 1EL257 Krasucha -4, some anti-drone set and most importantly prototype of some new EW measure. Plus several comms vehicles.

They were captured before but due to Opsec news were keep quiet. Now they supposedly in "safe place".

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Capn is not underestimating their ability to be dangerous Bleeps individually and in small groups. 

And that exactly underestimation of their capabilities. But do not listen to me - let's look at the map

FYI the LPR and Volunteers there prevented RU front collapse east of  Oskil river by holding UKR advance in Lyman area. Do they still look like dangerous but small terror groups? 

 

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

and now it is TOO LATE. If Girkin and Murz were miraculously appointed as commander and chief of staff today this mess couldn't be saved. By every military measure the Russian forces in Ukraine are beaten, unfixably beaten. The Nats could concieveably commit one or several atrocities/wmd incidents that would inspire NATO to finish this in a week, that would suck, but doesn't change the outcome. And neither do any of their other options, beaten is beaten.

What if I tell you they are planning to fortify L-DPR territory making any assault on it extremely costly. And then they will start smashing UKR infrastructure to force humanitarian catastrophe phe there - winter is coming. 

What is NATO going to do? Invade fortified L-DPR? How many boys are you ready to sacrifice to take norther Fallujahs? And what is your plan on possibility of getting a nuke in the face once you cleared these Fallujahs?  

Everything depends on UKR forcing collapse at Lyman. If they will force collapse, then L-PR and volunters are weaker than I believe and I will agree that they are mostly beaten.

If not, then they are not beaten yet and e should expect they and Prigozhin are preparing some nasty things for UKR and us.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

And that exactly underestimation of their capabilities. But do not listen to me - let's look at the map

FYI the LPR and Volunteers there prevented RU front collapse east of  Oskil river by holding UKR advance in Lyman area. Do they still look like dangerous but small terror groups? 

 

What if I tell you they are planning to fortify L-DPR territory making any assault on it extremely costly. And then they will start smashing UKR infrastructure to force humanitarian catastrophe phe there - winter is coming. 

What is NATO going to do? Invade fortified L-DPR? How many boys are you ready to sacrifice to take norther Fallujahs? And what is your plan on possibility of getting a nuke in the face once you cleared these Fallujahs?  

Everything depends on UKR forcing collapse at Lyman. If they will force collapse, then L-PR and volunters are weaker than I believe and I will agree that they are mostly beaten.

If not, then they are not beaten yet and e should expect they and Prigozhin are preparing some nasty things for UKR and us.

Ok, one follow up and then maybe it is best we agree to disagree because this is really going no where.  I will take your map as gospel.  So we have a pretty hard rock in the ol shoe there, some real toughies in a box. Looks like they have a river in front of them so positioning is nasty.  Looks like they are holding about a 50 km frontage in that bubble - a citadel of nasty. 

This is a tactical problem.  For example, who is securing their LOCs - which are about 100kms long back to Russia?  These guys are tough but without ammo they become a hilarious nuisance.  How is that logistical system doing?  Is it robust, multi-corridor, dynamic and self-healing?  Do these guys have any Deep Strike capability to threaten UA supply lines?  What ISR do they have beyond tactical?  I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they have decent tactical.

So what we really have is a really tough, well motivated tactical set of units (maybe a formation?) that cannot secure its LOCs north. Its ISR is limited by range, while the UA can see them from space.  I am sure they will die bravely, or better yet, if they are that switched on they should be able to see how untenable their situation is and pull back.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And that exactly underestimation of their capabilities. But do not listen to me - let's look at the map

FYI the LPR and Volunteers there prevented RU front collapse east of  Oskil river by holding UKR advance in Lyman area. Do they still look like dangerous but small terror groups? 

 

What if I tell you they are planning to fortify L-DPR territory making any assault on it extremely costly. And then they will start smashing UKR infrastructure to force humanitarian catastrophe phe there - winter is coming. 

What is NATO going to do? Invade fortified L-DPR? How many boys are you ready to sacrifice to take norther Fallujahs? And what is your plan on possibility of getting a nuke in the face once you cleared these Fallujahs?  

Everything depends on UKR forcing collapse at Lyman. If they will force collapse, then L-PR and volunters are weaker than I believe and I will agree that they are mostly beaten.

If not, then they are not beaten yet and e should expect they and Prigozhin are preparing some nasty things for UKR and us.

 

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, one follow up and then maybe it is best we agree to disagree because this is really going no where.  I will take your map as gospel.  So we have a pretty hard rock in the ol shoe there, some real toughies in a box. Looks like they have a river in front of them so positioning is nasty.  Looks like they are holding about a 50 km frontage in that bubble - a citadel of nasty. 

This is a tactical problem.  For example, who is securing their LOCs - which are about 100kms long back to Russia?  These guys are tough but without ammo they become a hilarious nuisance.  How is that logistical system doing?  Is it robust, multi-corridor, dynamic and self-healing?  Do these guys have any Deep Strike capability to threaten UA supply lines?  What ISR do they have beyond tactical?  I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they have decent tactical.

So what we really have is a really tough, well motivated tactical set of units (maybe a formation?) that cannot secure its LOCs north. Its ISR is limited by range, while the UA can see them from space.  I am sure they will die bravely, or better yet, if they are that switched on they should be able to see how untenable their situation is and pull back.

These guys standing in Lyman now is the best possible scenario. They can be surrounded and killed. It might delay things a week. They would be far more dangerous if they were smart enough to dissolve into the wood work and start setting up a guerilla war now. As dead martyrs in the worst cause since the Confederacy they are a remarkably small problem. 

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, one follow up and then maybe it is best we agree to disagree because this is really going no where.  I will take your map as gospel.  So we have a pretty hard rock in the ol shoe there, some real toughies in a box. Looks like they have a river in front of them so positioning is nasty.  Looks like they are holding about a 50 km frontage in that bubble - a citadel of nasty. 

This is a tactical problem.  For example, who is securing their LOCs - which are about 100kms long back to Russia?  These guys are tough but without ammo they become a hilarious nuisance.  How is that logistical system doing?  Is it robust, multi-corridor, dynamic and self-healing?  Do these guys have any Deep Strike capability to threaten UA supply lines?  What ISR do they have beyond tactical?  I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they have decent tactical.

So what we really have is a really tough, well motivated tactical set of units (maybe a formation?) that cannot secure its LOCs north. Its ISR is limited by range, while the UA can see them from space.  I am sure they will die bravely, or better yet, if they are that switched on they should be able to see how untenable their situation is and pull back.

This map is also dated according to info he provided prior in this thread.  Lyman appears to be getting further and further out on a limb.

 

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by sburke

[akd]

Today I learned that Ukrainians refer to PKMs as “Pokémons.” 

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet they still agree on one thing... Russia can not lose and without mobilization losing is inevitable.

You've probably answered this previously Steve, but does this mean you think Russia is going to start a mobilization?

 

Unrelatedly, Does anyone have a version of the Ukrainian advances on the map in movie form?  I was wanting to see, and I bet a lot of people would like to see, what it looked like from the start of the push.

[Huba]

Gotta go for dinner, so no time to summarize it, but this evening DefMon's thread is really interesting, worth taking a look:

 

[sburke]

Damn tech is getting freaky.  Had the solar installer out today to do site survey.  He launches a drone that auto circles the house at about 100 ft to create a 3d image they will then use for design and permit docs.

I laughed when he launched it and said - If I was a Russian soldier I'd likely be panicking right now.  He got a chuckle out of that. 

[TheVulture]

Article from Geopolitical Futures on Russia's way forwards. Basically it's "mobilise or lose". The writer is more of a political analyst, not a military one,  and I think he is overestimating Russia's current military capabilities somewhat.

> 

September 13, 2022 View On Website Open as PDF     The War   By: George Friedman   During World War II, one needed to say only “the war” for others to know what was being discussed. We have reached the same point with the Russo-Ukrainian war. This is not what the Russians expected to happen. They expected the war to be over quickly because they regarded their military as self-evidently superior to what the Ukrainians would put on the field. Few nations start a war assuming they will lose. They start wars with the same expectation: Hit hard, and be home for Christmas. But the history of the world is filled with the stories of great armies and warriors fighting long and desperate battles. And the history of warfare is filled with examples of confidence meeting reality. It is far from clear what the final outcome will be. The initial Russian offensive ended in failure, less because of Ukrainians forces, brave though they might have been, than because of a poorly developed Russian strategy, leading to supply shortages and command failures. The Russians regrouped, focused on more modest advances in the expectation that over time they would break the Ukrainian forces and occupy, if not all of Ukraine, then at least a substantial amount of it. The Ukrainians didn’t break. Wars are fought by soldiers, but they are also fought with weapons and intelligence. Even brave soldiers would fail without these and other material. This is where the Russians experienced their own intelligence failure. They knew that the U.S. had the capacity to deploy world-class weapons but believed the deployment would take time. So it had to be a short war, and when they failed to gain a quick victory, the Ukrainians were armed with an extraordinary array of state-of-the-art weapons, delivered in expanding type and number, with losses replaced. The United States bought time for the Ukrainian army to evolve from the light infantry force that started the war into an army resembling, in many ways, a great power. Anti-air systems forced the Russians to exercise caution, anti-armor systems caused them to focus on infantry movement, and American artillery meant the Ukrainians could win artillery duels. Russian President Vladimir Putin on several occasions said that the war was not against Ukraine but against the United States. In a real sense he was right, even though he meant it only as propaganda. All of this is both true and misleading. The war is not over, and Ukraine has not won, although recent advances are significant. No one would have believed that Ukraine could survive the Russian onslaught in the first months. But it did. The Russians reorganized their command structure, introduced superior armor and imposed harsh discipline on their troops. They paid a staggering price, but in time, they redefined the war. They must now regain their balance. On one hand, they are in far better condition than in 1941. Outright defeat is very unlikely, and they can choose the time and place to attack from a large menu. On the other hand, they are in much worse shape. They are not in a life or death struggle against a monstrous enemy. The troops are not defending their wives and parents from unspeakable fates. The soldiers are not consigned to their own deaths. But it can sometimes destroy an army to fight for ends that are not personal to the soldiers. Throwing away their rifles is not an affront to their families. The Russians are nevertheless fighting with all of this in mind. They are not simply fighting to postpone the inevitable because the longer a war lasts, the greater the price leaders pay. Putin cannot afford to lose this war, nor can the many others who helped plan it. So before celebrating, the Ukrainians and Americans must calculate their next move, assuming that Russia’s next move is to collapse or capitulate, both of which are unlikely. One thing the Russians may be counting on is a very cold winter in Europe, which could lead to a European capitulation. But at this stage of the war that doesn’t matter much. Europe’s support is heartening but has minimal military meaning. The U.S. and Ukraine will not stop fighting to keep Europe in the war. Another strategy the Russians might attempt is to ask China for help. But they are already allied with China, and China has made no move to help. China could support only a small contingent in Ukraine, which they would have to supply because of Russian limits. China is also aware of the economic war the U.S. is waging against Russia, and given its own economic condition, China does not want to face that. A third strategy might be to negotiate peace. But the Russians cannot return to the Russian border with nothing but dead soldiers to show for it. The Ukrainians will not cede part of their country, viewing any settlement as temporary. A negotiation on either side would now be a capitulation. The fourth strategy is the only one that seems like a real possibility. One side must defeat the other. Neither side can afford the cost of failing such an attack. The Russian advantage is manpower. There are reports from multiple sources, including American ones, of large numbers of Russian troops training in the Russian Far East. The Russians need more troops, so these reports are believable. Russia is not going to defeat an army armed with American weapons with the number of forces it has deployed thus far. The Russians face a choice of attacking with overwhelming force or losing the war. They will choose the former. The Russians are protected by a political and military reality. The U.S. is not interested in hitting Russia directly, either with conventional or nuclear weapons. Russia can hit back. Neither side wants a direct Russo-American war. Reinforcements can be hit upon crossing into Ukraine, but the Russians will send a vast number of trainees because heavy casualties at every stage is inevitable. So long as Putin is president, every effort will be made to win, because he cannot afford anything less than victory. And I don’t see any other possible strategies except the manpower one, which I assume will happen very soon or after the winter. It does not seem to me that the current forces deployed by Russia can do more than hold on to some areas. There needs to be reinforcement. Putin may have other strategies, but they are hard to envision.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Article from Geopolitical Futures on Russia's way forwards. Basically it's "mobilise or lose". The writer is more of a political analyst, not a military one,  and I think he is overestimating Russia's current military capabilities somewhat.

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September 13, 2022 View On Website Open as PDF     The War   By: George Friedman   During World War II, one needed to say only “the war” for others to know what was being discussed. We have reached the same point with the Russo-Ukrainian war. This is not what the Russians expected to happen. They expected the war to be over quickly because they regarded their military as self-evidently superior to what the Ukrainians would put on the field. Few nations start a war assuming they will lose. They start wars with the same expectation: Hit hard, and be home for Christmas. But the history of the world is filled with the stories of great armies and warriors fighting long and desperate battles. And the history of warfare is filled with examples of confidence meeting reality. It is far from clear what the final outcome will be. The initial Russian offensive ended in failure, less because of Ukrainians forces, brave though they might have been, than because of a poorly developed Russian strategy, leading to supply shortages and command failures. The Russians regrouped, focused on more modest advances in the expectation that over time they would break the Ukrainian forces and occupy, if not all of Ukraine, then at least a substantial amount of it. The Ukrainians didn’t break. Wars are fought by soldiers, but they are also fought with weapons and intelligence. Even brave soldiers would fail without these and other material. This is where the Russians experienced their own intelligence failure. They knew that the U.S. had the capacity to deploy world-class weapons but believed the deployment would take time. So it had to be a short war, and when they failed to gain a quick victory, the Ukrainians were armed with an extraordinary array of state-of-the-art weapons, delivered in expanding type and number, with losses replaced. The United States bought time for the Ukrainian army to evolve from the light infantry force that started the war into an army resembling, in many ways, a great power. Anti-air systems forced the Russians to exercise caution, anti-armor systems caused them to focus on infantry movement, and American artillery meant the Ukrainians could win artillery duels. Russian President Vladimir Putin on several occasions said that the war was not against Ukraine but against the United States. In a real sense he was right, even though he meant it only as propaganda. All of this is both true and misleading. The war is not over, and Ukraine has not won, although recent advances are significant. No one would have believed that Ukraine could survive the Russian onslaught in the first months. But it did. The Russians reorganized their command structure, introduced superior armor and imposed harsh discipline on their troops. They paid a staggering price, but in time, they redefined the war. They must now regain their balance. On one hand, they are in far better condition than in 1941. Outright defeat is very unlikely, and they can choose the time and place to attack from a large menu. On the other hand, they are in much worse shape. They are not in a life or death struggle against a monstrous enemy. The troops are not defending their wives and parents from unspeakable fates. The soldiers are not consigned to their own deaths. But it can sometimes destroy an army to fight for ends that are not personal to the soldiers. Throwing away their rifles is not an affront to their families. The Russians are nevertheless fighting with all of this in mind. They are not simply fighting to postpone the inevitable because the longer a war lasts, the greater the price leaders pay. Putin cannot afford to lose this war, nor can the many others who helped plan it. So before celebrating, the Ukrainians and Americans must calculate their next move, assuming that Russia’s next move is to collapse or capitulate, both of which are unlikely. One thing the Russians may be counting on is a very cold winter in Europe, which could lead to a European capitulation. But at this stage of the war that doesn’t matter much. Europe’s support is heartening but has minimal military meaning. The U.S. and Ukraine will not stop fighting to keep Europe in the war. Another strategy the Russians might attempt is to ask China for help. But they are already allied with China, and China has made no move to help. China could support only a small contingent in Ukraine, which they would have to supply because of Russian limits. China is also aware of the economic war the U.S. is waging against Russia, and given its own economic condition, China does not want to face that. A third strategy might be to negotiate peace. But the Russians cannot return to the Russian border with nothing but dead soldiers to show for it. The Ukrainians will not cede part of their country, viewing any settlement as temporary. A negotiation on either side would now be a capitulation. The fourth strategy is the only one that seems like a real possibility. One side must defeat the other. Neither side can afford the cost of failing such an attack. The Russian advantage is manpower. There are reports from multiple sources, including American ones, of large numbers of Russian troops training in the Russian Far East. The Russians need more troops, so these reports are believable. Russia is not going to defeat an army armed with American weapons with the number of forces it has deployed thus far. The Russians face a choice of attacking with overwhelming force or losing the war. They will choose the former. The Russians are protected by a political and military reality. The U.S. is not interested in hitting Russia directly, either with conventional or nuclear weapons. Russia can hit back. Neither side wants a direct Russo-American war. Reinforcements can be hit upon crossing into Ukraine, but the Russians will send a vast number of trainees because heavy casualties at every stage is inevitable. So long as Putin is president, every effort will be made to win, because he cannot afford anything less than victory. And I don’t see any other possible strategies except the manpower one, which I assume will happen very soon or after the winter. It does not seem to me that the current forces deployed by Russia can do more than hold on to some areas. There needs to be reinforcement. Putin may have other strategies, but they are hard to envision.

I was going to respond but then realized I disagree with every second or third sentence. Is "George Friedman" one of those AI writing programs?