How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Does that make Zelensky into Paul Atreides?

Spoiler: it's more fitting than you think, just in reverse

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Thanks for the clarification, but I thought the regular units were in the south around izium and they mostly pulled out once the breakthrough happened north of them? 

Edit: so the actual fighting was mobiks, left behind Rosgvardiya and rear echelon troops?

I've written about two days ago about Russian forces in Balakliya area, where initial strike took place - 79th MRR of 18th MRD, 126th Rosgvardiya regiment, two detachments of SOBR, OMON, battalions of LPR mobiks and 60th BARS battalion

144th MRD and some airborne unit elements were in Shevchenkove area

4th, 2nd divisions, 47th division elements - Balakliya - Izium area

Edited September 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[hcrof]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I've written about two days ago about Russian forces in Balakliya area, where initial strike took place - 79th MRR of 18th MRD, 126th Rosgvardiya regiment, two detachments of SOBR, OMON, battalions of LPR mobiks and 60th BARS battalion

 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like we agree? I thought that the 79th MRR pulled back out of the line and the rest of that list were not capable of stopping the UA advance because they had few heavy weapons and could not coordinate with artillery? At that point the UA broke through and a few days later the regular troops around izium largely pulled out, leaving a lot of equipment behind them.

[Calamine Waffles]

Still waiting to see the first captured Buk-M3 to be honest.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but it sounds like we agree? I thought that the 79th MRR pulled back out of the line and the rest of that list were not capable of stopping the UA advance because they had few heavy weapons and could not coordinate with artillery? At that point the UA broke through and a few days later the regular troops around izium largely pulled out, leaving a lot of equipment behind them.

There was enough videos of destroyed Russian armor and captured soldiers from Kaliningrad (79th regiment/18th MRD home), also was a video about some Caucasian unit evacuates own wounded (they speak on some Caucasian language). There was writing this is Kadyrov troops, but there are no any Chechen units there, only 126th regiment from Ingushetiya, so I suppose that were 126th regiment wounded. So, not all had time to back out and were engaged by UKR forces.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Grigb]

UKR claims first RU pocket south of Izum closed (around 3 PM)

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

UKR claims first RU pocket south of Izum closed (around 3 PM)

OK, I'm running to the liquor store!

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

OK, I'm running to the liquor store!

I do not thing it is gonna be big thing - I believe there are mostly those who did not get the message in time. Still nice.

[Calamine Waffles]

I wonder if it was 92 OMBr and their T-64s. Would be a great swan song for the T-64.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

There is no leash dude. The west armed and trained the Ukraine army and then stood back and watched.

So you expect Ukraine to violate the agreed boundaries given them in exchange for the aid meaning they will cross into Russia in pursuit then pull back? Have not heard that one. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by kevinkin

[danfrodo]

I came down to computer today to see 181 posts overnight.  My oh my what a busy day in Ukraine.  3000 sq km, major cities, main supply hub.

RU 'regrouping' forces -- into POW camps.  The ammo & vehicle haul is going to be insane.

I love the smell of collapse in morning.  Smells like victory.  Congratulations to all those in Ukraine.  And congrats to all those in surrounding countries who would've been in Putin's sights if he had prevailed in Ukraine. 

It's not over, a long way to go, but this is what we've all been dreaming about. 

Just last week famous US TV vatnik lectured that Russian was winning, obviously.  He's been a Putin mouthpiece since the beginning.  I wonder what he'll be saying now.

[Cederic]

2 hours ago, riptides said:

quell the civilian exodus

That would be utterly insane.

Forcibly evicting a civilian population is a UN definition of genocide.

Managing a highly pro-Russian civilian population (e.g. Crimea with all its Russian occupiers) is a miserable nightmare.

Letting pro-Russian civilians peaceably return to Russia before you even regain administrative control of the areas in which they live? It's an utter no-brainer. Let them flee! Allow them to return to the country to which their heart belongs.

I can't see a downside either.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

I met the opinion of some western military analyst in twitter (alas can't find now) that this UKR offensive puts an end to discussion about either need tanks and armored vehciled in modern warfare or not, because UKR success was caused by PROPER WELL PLANNED using of armored spears.

Of course, as I said mech. units usage was properly combined with mobile recon/AT groups on pick-ups and SOF infiltration

I just post here some examples of UKR armor in this operation:

Likely air-assault unit, riding on BTR-80s

Flag over Kupiansk raised soldiers of 1st mech.battalion of 92nd mech.brigade (writings on the flag)

 

Tanks of some air-assault/airborne brigade (80th or 25th)

 

UKR air-assault unit on BTR-3DA

Entering to Balakliya - BTR-4 and BMP-1

BTR-4 fires at the enemy

UKR Buk M1 is following advancing troops 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, Cederic said:

That would be utterly insane.

Forcibly evicting a civilian population is a UN definition of genocide.

Managing a highly pro-Russian civilian population (e.g. Crimea with all its Russian occupiers) is a miserable nightmare.

Letting pro-Russian civilians peaceably return to Russia before you even regain administrative control of the areas in which they live? It's an utter no-brainer. Let them flee! Allow them to return to the country to which their heart belongs.

I can't see a downside either.

It's true. My wish has been to see all pro-russian people go home, to their Best Country and stop ruining Ukraine - and it's now coming to be true absolutely voluntarily.

It's pure perfection. Let them all go. Live in the land of hypersound nukes and vodka. And never come back.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

wake up to 130+ posts.  holy crap.  And a shout out to Vovchansk!  That was the town I suggested for targeting way way back at beginning of Russian Izyum offensive.  Okay I was totally wrong about everything else but I did name one town correct! Too early to open wine, but my coffee tastes phenomenally great this morning.

So the Russian army has been shattered, the 3rd string AK is getting scattered in penny packets uselessly.  Russia has no other serious reserves to commit so the only option it to strip other areas.  I don't expect general mud to force a complete halt in UKR operations.  There are just too many gaps now for Russia and those light forces can still move.

So now can we talk about a REAL operational pause?  What are thoughts on the ability of UA logistical system to maintain this thrust or is it time for a different sector of the front to get hit?

Edited September 10, 2022 by sburke

[Cederic]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

cohered

Oh ffs.

A Ukrainian just taught me a new word in English.

 

[Huba]

Didn't hear most of it myself, but VERY interesting:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I met the opinion of some western military analyst in twitter (alas can't find now) that this UKR offensive puts an end to discussion about either need tanks and armored vehciled in modern warfare or not, because UKR success was caused by PROPER WELL PLANNED using of armored spears.

Of course, as I said mech. units usage was properly combined with mobile recon/AT groups on pick-ups and SOF infiltration

I just post here some examples of UKR armor in this operation:

Likely air-assault unit, riding on BTR-80s

Flag over Kupiansk raised soldiers of 1st mech.battalion of 92nd mech.brigade (writings on the flag)

 

Tanks of some air-assault/airborne brigade (80th or 25th)

 

UKR air-assault unit on BTR-3DA

Entering to Balakliya - BTR-4 and BMP-1

BTR-4 fires at the enemy

UKR Buk M1 is following advancing troops 

 

I agree. The ZSU have been very consistent in reporting that tanks have been essential in every phase of the war.

[kevinkin]

AP Reporting:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-world-news-kharkiv-e06b2aa723e826ed4105b5f32827f577

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I would imagine Kofman is getting some pretty dank looks around town these days.

 

 

[Maquisard manqué]

8 minutes ago, Cederic said:

That would be utterly insane.

Forcibly evicting a civilian population is a UN definition of genocide.

Managing a highly pro-Russian civilian population (e.g. Crimea with all its Russian occupiers) is a miserable nightmare.

Letting pro-Russian civilians peaceably return to Russia before you even regain administrative control of the areas in which they live? It's an utter no-brainer. Let them flee! Allow them to return to the country to which their heart belongs.

I can't see a downside either.

They may not see much difference between being evicted or moving because they are afraid of reprisals. They’ll certainly think they had no choice but to leave.

That can look like forced migration, arguably is, and will get stretched to genocide too.

Another sad part of the human tragedy of this stupid war, and another reminder of why nationalism is  so toxic to peace and prosperity.

[sburke]

Moscow Professor Warns of Rising Social Tensions Without Victory Soon (msn.com)

Quote

 

In a video posted to Twitter by Julia Davis, a reporter for the Daily Beast and creator of the Russian Media Monitor, Moscow State University professor Vitaly Tretyakov is seen discussing the ongoing war with Ukraine and said that some Russian citizens may soon ask, "Where is our victory?"

"Not everyone realizes the paradox of this situation, there is an enormous confidence in our victory, but in response there should be real achievements, when you're certain that we have to win, when you're certain that our pursuit is righteous," Tretyakov said in the video, according to a translation. "Social tensions could rise up, not because of the masses opposing the military operation, but because they might ask why isn't it more active. Where is our victory? Where is the advancement?"

 

 

Don't hold your breath.. oh wait yes, please hold your breath!  Put a plastic bag over your heads it'll help!

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Oh ffs.

A Ukrainian just taught me a new word in English.

 

Maybe I should use other word, but I meant a result of "unit combat cohesion" process )

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

 

Sorry, naive question: Where have they gone?

I'm kind of assuming that they aren't all heading for Russia, and that's a lot of refugees.