How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

So after the rumours of trucks and soldiers in Moscow streets, now I'm hearing rumors of shots being heard in Moscow. Might be wishful thinking or fireworks? Interesting night to be sure.

EDIT: I'm pretty sure this is nonsense. Some things are too good to be true.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[Grigb]

RU clarifies

1. Everything between Oskil and Serski Donets is abondoned. Vovchansk is being evacuated

2. What is going to happened with Rubizhne - Udi is not clear. May be will stay under RU control.

3. Main RU objective now to create defense along Oskil to prevent UKR from advancing in to LPR

4. RU control Krasny Lyman due to mobiks and BARS units 

 

 

[Grigb]

RU does not know where front line is. The only thing is Svatovo, Krasny Lyman and Yampil is stil under RU control.

[UPDATE] RU loyal locals deny UKR reached Severodonetsk, Lysichansk and Svatovo

Edited September 10, 2022 by Grigb

[FancyCat]

Remember, unless stuff gets photo confirmed, probably too good to be true. Plus, it is surely in ZSU interest to spread fake collapses over social media to spur actual collapses. 

[Kraft]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In comments someone wrote this is Crimea, but who knows...

I assume it is fake, it has also already been deleated. A shame

I do wonder how civilians by the looks of it could cruise around a military base on a scooter. No guards in sight

Edited September 10, 2022 by Kraft

[Grigb]

RU Nats are discussing another aspect of the disaster - political cost of abandoning these territories. Basically RU lost trust of locals who decided to collaborate. So from now on it will be extremely difficult to setup an occupation administration for any captured territory. 

 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats are discussing another aspect of the disaster - political cost of abandoning these territories. Basically RU lost trust of locals who decided to collaborate. So from now on it will be extremely difficult to setup an occupation administration for any captured territory. 

 

One thing I never understood why did they even need an occupation administration made of locals. Russians consider collaborators unreliable untermenschen anyway, so why bother? Same goes for referendums. Is it some kind of cargo cult - like if we will hold a "referendum", where everything is already decided, then this territory now has protective runes of the Siberian Bear God making it ours?

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Can we get unlimited likes, just for this week?

I am spending one of my limited likes on this suggestion

[akd]

Muscovites celebrate the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast:

 

[Kinophile]

I don't know about leaving LDPR alone. I know they supposedly have the home advantage, but do they really?  After all the populace has been through, facing winter with water delivered in barrels, is the Regime really on that strong ground?

After the forceful mobilizations and cruelly stupid attacks do they have anything more than a few veteran units and a large mass of unmotivated, badly treated and equipped conscripts? 

Plus, the current positioning,  orientation and posture of the LDPR forces makes them operationally vulnerable.  Leave them for later and UA could give them a critical breathing spacing, making them a harder nut to crack than now. 

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

One thing I never understood why did they even need an occupation administration made of locals. Russians consider collaborators unreliable untermenschen anyway, so why bother? 

Because they do not need administrators. They need scum that will rob territories of their wealth and send it to RU. 

Local scum can do it just as good as imported scum from RU but will cost cheaper.

Referendum is just propaganda exercise for internal consumption.

[Grigb]

RU soldier in Kherson claim UKR is bringing reserves for the new offensive push.

[Simcoe]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I am not going to reopen the "tanks are dead...no they are not" debate...please gawd no.

However, is it just me or do light forces seem to be leading on this whole thing again?  I am sure there has been some heavy action but we still are not seeing big armor from the UA - unless I am missing something?

Depends on what you define as "light" forces. I don't see how this offensive happens without tanks to provide direct fire on heavily defended positions. Rolling up on lightly defended positions with humvees does not prove the death of tanks.

[Grigb]

RU claim that Administration of President plans to curb RU "ultra-patriots" . Who exactly are these ultra-patriots is not clear

[Grigb]

RU denies Vovchans is being abondoned. 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

For the list:

Captured Lt. Col. Artem Khelemendik (correct spelling?), Chief of Supply Base? ( @Haiduk @Grigb?), 79th MRR, 18th MRD:

Lt. Col. Kirill Evstigneev, Wagner PMC field commander (not sure if rank is within Wagner, or former military):

 

Captured, dead or ran away without papers (?) Lt. Col. Sergey Deev, battalion commander, 49th Machine-Gun Artillery Regiment, 18th Machine-Gun Artillery Division:

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by akd

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

this thread right now:

 

I'm already out of likes

[Grigb]

Another Kherson soldier reports that RU losses men too and RU need to do something about it urgently.

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

Another Kherson soldier reports that RU losses men too and RU need to do something about it urgently.

I don't see how I'll get any work done in the upcoming week  There's just too much going on.

In other news, Su-34 went down:

 

 

[Grigb]

RU claim UKR about to attack at Vuhledar direction. 

[Letter from Prague]

35 minutes ago, kraze said:

One thing I never understood why did they even need an occupation administration made of locals. Russians consider collaborators unreliable untermenschen anyway, so why bother? Same goes for referendums. Is it some kind of cargo cult - like if we will hold a "referendum", where everything is already decided, then this territory now has protective runes of the Siberian Bear God making it ours?

Because the objective is to bring more hatred, violence and suffering into the world. Where's always some local opportunists who will take on the opportunity - they want money, have grudges to settle, etc. If you appoint some, you have the locals hating each other instead of uniting against you. Even after they force you out, you damaged the society and made the world a worse place - such is the Russian way.

I think the referenda are a different case: mockery of real values (like democracy and self-direction) and people who hold them (since for Russian Imperialists, the only values are "**** you, got mine" and "might makes right"). It also helps various fifth columns with PR since they can then point to this twisted parody of real processes and claim they are actually legitimate, even if everyone knows they aren't.

[OldSarge]

52 minutes ago, kraze said:

Same goes for referendums. Is it some kind of cargo cult - like if we will hold a "referendum", where everything is already decided, then this territory now has protective runes of the Siberian Bear God making it ours?

I've always regarded the RUs use of referendums as a bit of gaslighting for the West. So that they can say: "See the local people want to be aligned with us and want our protection. How can you be against that, unless you really don't like democracy."  It doesn't work anymore, except perhaps the 'tankies'.

[Grigb]

RU exposes UKR cunning tactical trick - UKRused boats at night to cross Donets river in order to attack Balaklya-Vesel road.

[Letter from Prague]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

RU exposes UKR cunning tactical trick - UKRused boats at night to cross Donets river in order to attack Balaklya-Vesel road.

Using boats to cross rivers? Oh my god, such a highly unexpected turn of events. Truly, nobody could have predicted that.

This makes me think about the bridges. I was already thinking, Ukraine is competent at river crossings and Russians are not, so blowing the bridges might be in their favor even if the intent to continue moving ahead. soon. Chance of cutting off the enemy now might be worth slower advance later.

[Grigb]

RU Nats grumbling that RU aviation is crap. Says they do not see real results on the ground and that it explains why UKR are advancing despite RU aviation strikes.