How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Destroyed bridge in Kupyansk:

 

[Beleg85]

First reporters are coming behind the troops; Maria Avdeeva this time from villages along the break. Probably we will see more evidence of Russian warcrimes as time goes, unless they remove traces.

(only link):

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1568257634460999681

 

[chrisl]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

If read that or something similar quite a few times in this thread. Honest question: What makes you think that tactical nukes trigger a NATO intervention? I mean logically, not what you would like to see. Currently NATO does everything to prevent a) becoming directly involved in the war and b) nuclear war.

Let's ignore the wether or not tactical nukes realistic are in fact a realistical option. If the Russians start using them they have just shown that backed into a corner they are willing to escalate to nuclear. How would a NATO intervention not mean backing them into a corner even more? All out nuclear war suddenly becomes so much more realistic and all of a sudden, NATO is now directly involved and has a nuclear - there very things they wanted to prevent all the time.

In addition: Tactiacal nukes on Ukraining ground do not trigger article 5. So at best, it would be some NATO countries on their own but possible now with a lot of trouble from the rest of the NATO members who never wanted to escalate beyond delivering weapons.

Two things:

1) Non-proliferation.  Ukraine gave up its position with the third largest nuclear arsenal on earth in return for security promises.  If Ukraine had kept their nukes, this wouldn't have happened, and if RU uses nukes without a devastating response then every country on earth with sketch neighbors will be trying to build, buy, or steal their own nukes.

2) Russia's nukes are currently doing exactly what they were designed to do: keep NATO forces from directly attacking RU and and RU forces for fear that RU will use nukes.  If RU actually blows someone up with them, that fear is realized and there's no reason not to respond with overwhelming force to keep them from using more.  Nukes work best when you don't try to blow anybody up with them.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

Destroyed bridge in Kupyansk:

 

Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead.

Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.

[Battlefront.com]

I've been long since predicting the time would come when Russia would face a complete military collapse in Ukraine.  It's too soon to say, for sure, that we have arrived at that point.  However, for SURE we are closer to it today than we were even a week ago.  Because there is far less known than known (Internet shows us only the tip of the obvious) any predictions are extremely speculative.  Since speculating is the best we can do, I'm fine with it

We should think of the front as being divided up into roughly 6 primary sectors:

1. Kharkiv North (north of Highway 7 that runs from Kharkiv to the Luhansk border)
2. Kharkiv South (south of Highway 7, including Izyum)
3. Donbas North (Siverskyi Donets to just north of Donetsk City)
4. Donbas South (around Donetsk City)
5. Zaporizhzhia (from Donetsk City to the Dnepr)
6. Kherson

Currently Ukraine is actively attacking in concentrated strength in two of the 6.  Russia is making weak attacks in both Donbas fronts, but nothing of any significance.  That leaves 2 sectors not being attacked at all by either side in any meaningful way, which has been true for months.

What we know, for sure, is that Russia is actively losing the fight for 2 out of the 6, stalemated in 2, and 2 are in "stasis" (meaning neither side active).

Each side has pretty much all of their primary military strength at the front already, but each has reserves in theater.  On the Russian side there is the famed 3rd Army Corps, on Ukraine's side significant forces that have been training and/or guarding for an attack by Belarus or from that direction.

Looking at the two active sectors we can count about 30,000 Russian troops being at risk of total removal from the battlefield.  Roughly 20,000 of which are already pocketed in Kherson, the rest effectively cut off from supply (but not retreat) in the Kharkiv South area concentrated around Izyum.  The likely strength of the 3rd Army Corps is about 10,000 in place now with maybe 5,000 still in Russia for various reasons.  The math is not favorable for Russia.

Here's where things get very interesting.

Kherson is a lost cause and I'm sure Russia knows it.  They will not reinforce it in any significant way.  Izyum, on the other hand, is about to become a lost cause if Russia can't stabilize the Kharkiv South offensive.  They will strip away forces from everywhere to try and avoid having to make a decision about staying or leaving Izyum.

Russia is desperate to not lose Izyum as it was desperate to not lose Kherson.  The next few days will determine if Izyum goes the way of Kherson (Russia stubbornly denying reality) or the way of Kyiv (pulling out before collapse).  Politically, withdrawing from Izyum is a big problem for Putin so it's not a sure thing pragmatism will win the day here as it did with Kyiv.  Back then Putin thought he had more options and could exercise them later.  By now Putin must know he's out of options.  I expect he'll try and stick it out at Izyum.

The problem for Putin is that his forces in Izyum might make different plans soon.  Ukraine going on the offensive along the rest of the Kharkiv South front could result in a rout, either in slow motion or in dramatic fashion.

Now, what happens if the 3rd Army Corps is not moved from the reserve positions in the south where the fighting currently isn't?  Izyum is doomed and maybe Kharkiv North becomes hot again.  This means 3 out of the 6 sectors become Ukraine's.  So the pressure to move the 3rd Army Corps is going to be huge.  Once it is in motion then the Zaporizhzhia sector could come into play. 

Ukraine could either finish up or pause the fight in Kherson, shift forces over to Zaporizhzhia and start pushing towards Melitopol using the Dnepr to protect it's right flank.  It's a TON of territory to take back in a short period of time, so I don't think Ukraine can do much if the Russians don't panic and retreat without orders (no way Putin would authorize a pullback there!).  It is possible they will break under pressure, but I'm thinking they will likely hold for now and become the new focus for Ukraine after the dust settles.

Campaign season is coming to a close, so maybe Ukraine won't try to open up another sector, but I suspect they will give it a shot.

The Donbas sectors are not an immediate issue for Ukraine to pursue, but if Russia strips them down to the bone it is possible Ukraine will go on a limited offensive there.  I doubt there will be anything dramatic as this is the only place where some of the defenders have a reason to defend.

Whatever isn't accomplished this season will be picked up and continued this winter.  I don't think Russia's prospects will be any better with a pause, but I do think Ukraine's will.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

I wonder what is under the tarp? Would there be any reason for a tarp other than hiding something? (Maybe just hiding the amount of shots already fired from that magazine)

 

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

If read that or something similar quite a few times in this thread. Honest question: What makes you think that tactical nukes trigger a NATO intervention? I mean logically, not what you would like to see. Currently NATO does everything to prevent a) becoming directly involved in the war and b) nuclear war.

Let's ignore the wether or not tactical nukes realistic are in fact a realistical option. If the Russians start using them they have just shown that backed into a corner they are willing to escalate to nuclear. How would a NATO intervention not mean backing them into a corner even more? All out nuclear war suddenly becomes so much more realistic and all of a sudden, NATO is now directly involved and has a nuclear - there very things they wanted to prevent all the time.

In addition: Tactical nukes on Ukraining ground do not trigger article 5. So at best, it would be some NATO countries on their own but possible now with a lot of trouble from the rest of the NATO members who never wanted to escalate beyond delivering weapons.

It's a good question and I don't think we can know for sure until it happens. It's certainly an issue being debated around DC. You are spot on that militarily tactical nukes are not highly useful against the Ukrainian army. It's unlikely anything short of general use destroys Ukraine's ability to resist and the partisan warfare that would ensue in that case would be extraordinarily frightful. Nuking a city would be simpler and nuking Kyiv would be not just a military strike but a statement of will. Also, of course, an incredibly significant war crime. And none of the above would trigger Article 5. 

The issue would come down to what the major states in NATO would do. Would Germany recoil at getting more deeply involved? Would France? I would bet (and have) that they would not. I think it would engender the kind of crusading zeal not seen since 1945. It would be clear to all that this war is no longer a regional conflict but an absolute necessity to stop a larger war to come and while India and China wouldn't help us, they would certainly back away from even the limited support they've given Russia.

Another important point is that NATO has gained enormous conventional dominance as a result of this war. We don't just know how badly Russian forces have been hurt but also how badly led, trained and supplied they are while having had three months to turn them inside out analytically. NATO can destroy everything for Putin in a week or two and never has to even consider using nuclear weapons to do it. 

All of that to say is, yes...policy folks are certainly worried about 'backing him into a corner' but I think the event itself would transform the nature of the conflict in ways that would make that point moot.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead.

Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.

This means Ukraine is not planning on advancing further eastward and is, instead, going to use the river as an anchor for the winter.  Blowing the bridge ensures that even if the Kharkiv offensive is pushed back, Izyum won't be supplied the way it used to be.

This is very smart on Ukraine's part.  It doesn't need the bridge.  They have other options to push into Luhansk.

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

It's a bit of a sign of the panic that has gripped the Russians that for once, instead of denying Ukrainian successes, their bloggers are are being accurate or even exaggerating the gains.

Russians have placed the Ukrainians at Oskil town. If that were true, that's the game. I doubt it, but the mere rumour will sure put the wind up the Russian soldiers.

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[akd]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead.

Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.

It looks like the bridge decking has collapsed to either side of a pair of intact columns. Odd way to do intentional demolition, but also not what we have seen with HIMARS strikes on comparable bridges (Dariivka bridge is similar in size, I think).

Edited September 9, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

First reporters are coming behind the troops; Maria Avdeeva this time from villages along the break. Probably we will see more evidence of Russian warcrimes as time goes, unless they remove traces.

(only link):

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1568257634460999681

 

If the war crimes in the occupied areas are on the scale that we have speculated in this thread I doubt RU will have time to remove all traces of them before they leave.

I don't want to sound gloomy but we will probably see newly discovered war crimes in occupied areas that will make the Bucha massacre seem small in comparison.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

It looks like the bridge decking has collapsed to either side of a pair of intact columns. Odd way to do intentional demolition, but also not what we have seen with HIMARS strikes on comparable bridges (Dariivka bridge is similar in size, I think.

Either way, the bridge is not usable for now and I don't think that's a problem for Ukraine's strategy going forward.   Similar to Kherson's bridges.

Steve

[chrisl]

So has anybody seen direct evidence of the 10,000-15,000 guys in the 3AC?  As in pictures of bunches of guys setting up camps, or in barracks or something?  The way they were plopped in far from any action is a little suspicious, as in they might be all the vehicles for the 3AC, but only a BTG worth of guys to drive them off the trains and park them.

I hadn't come back and found the thread when all this started, but back in Feb I didn't think that RU was actually going to attack because it looked like they had just parked bunches of vehicles and it wasn't clear if there were enough troops for them.  Right up to the attack, the vehicles were parked like someone was just trying to pack them in, not like crews were prepping them for a bunch of action.  Satellite pictures of camps didn't show enough paths stomped down in the snow for the number of guys that should have been in them.  Some of that certainly could have been bias in the pics that were given to the press, but what did get shown didn't look like there was enough activity.

Russia did attack, and it turned out many of their units were way undermanned, with recruiting getting harder and harder as things have progressed.  Is the 3AC going to show up in action, or is it just a decoy that will be a vehicle/scrap metal donation to Ukraine?

[sburke]

I'd like to suggest in the interests of perspective we stop referring to them as 3rd Army corp but instead as 3rd string.  It's a lot closer to the truth of the impact they will have.

[Grigb]

43 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead.

Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.

Yes, latest clarification from RU it was blown by SOBR units to prevent UKR mech units from advancing.

[akd]

oh dear...

 

[Mattias]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

There are lines not to cross, but this isn't one of them IMHO. 

 

Steve,

Your premise seems to hinge on me not fully understanding the need to relentlessly curb stomping of the russian war machine, in all its constituent parts, into submission - well beyond Ukraines borders of 2013 and the capacity of it threatening any of its neighbours.

I can assure you that notion is completely unfounded… 

The thing is, that at the same time I genuinely believe that “we” are fighting for certain values. Values that does not really include the unnecessary degradation of human beings (that definitely being everyone of us). 

My point here, in the forum context, is that he did’t post that video, made into a meme, on this forum. “We” did that. And what does that say about us? 

That said, I have zero interest in a prolonged discussion on this point. I love the thread and follow it religiously for all it gives. It really is a haven of sanity and life-affirming absurdity.

Please consider my post a soft voice, whispering in your ear as we roll along the colonnades on our triumph.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Allow me to take this opportunity to repeat the greatest quote of Von Runstedt's career " Make peace you fools", It was good advice then, and it is good advice now.

And it's too late now as it was then

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

A while back someone asked what winning looked like....Put your coffee down first, you have been warned.

Edit:  someone beat me to it, but it is funny enough to put coffee down again, and watch it two or three more times.

Edited September 9, 2022 by dan/california

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

oh dear...

 

Very telling. Thanks for sharing. Godspeed to the ukranian forces. Wipe them out!

[Grigb]

Current UKR claim about progress.

Interesting to compare with my map.

[Maquisard manqué]

20 minutes ago, Mattias said:

Steve,

Your premise seems to hinge on me not fully understanding the need to relentlessly curb stomping of the russian war machine, in all its constituent parts, into submission - well beyond Ukraines borders of 2013 and the capacity of it threatening any of its neighbours.

I can assure you that notion is completely unfounded… 

The thing is, that at the same time I genuinely believe that “we” are fighting for certain values. Values that does not really include the unnecessary degradation of human beings (that definitely being everyone of us). 

My point here, in the forum context, is that he did’t post that video, made into a meme, on this forum. “We” did that. And what does that say about us? 

That said, I have zero interest in a prolonged discussion on this point. I love the thread and follow it religiously for all it gives. It really is a haven of sanity and life-affirming absurdity.

Please consider my post a soft voice, whispering in your ear as we roll along the colonnades on our triumph.

I’m with you on this. If you’re not in the trenches, I don’t think you have the same right to shed basic respect for humanity. When you’re half way round the world looking at this through twitter scopes, not personally implicated in this, I feel we actually have a responsibility not to drop decent values. 

That does presuppose the existence or possession of said values, which isn’t evident or granted of course.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Maquisard manqué
Sp

[The_MonkeyKing]

hmm, maybe the river crossing there a while back is connected?

[Huba]

Reportedly RU is transferring what is left of VDV from Belgorod and Kherson. The odor of desperation is becoming obnoxious...

 

[Artkin]

32 minutes ago, akd said:

oh dear...

 

Lmao! Holy ****