How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Interesting idea from Dimiytri- what if a third UKR offensive kicks off? 

Wait till RUS finally pushes what meagre reserves it has to Kharkiv,  then UKR shoves hard in another direction, eg towards Melitopol? It doesn't even need to be of similar size to Kherson/Kharkiv,  the RUS system is overstressed already. 

What would RUS have left?  

They can't reinforce  all AOs,  So at least one will fail catastrophically,  with domino effect  on the other two. 

We might only be still in the first phase of the real UKR offensive, and these two attacks are actually just the opening moves.

They could be stressing the "flanks"  of the Ivan's line, forcing them to use up their reinforcements,  both in fighting and in travelling.  Pull and stretch out the RUS reserves to the ends of the line then punch through the middle. 

If that doesn't lead to collapse, nothing will. 

I posit a center attack could be aimed at Berdyansk.

Now,  isn't that a nice thought... 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

Just now, Taranis said:

Russia is allegedly using Mi-26 helicopters to bring reinforcements to Izyum and Kupyansk

 

These is extremely risky, the one shot down in Chechnya resulted in 127 killed....

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Aragorn letting Russian in K-grad stay if they choose to live in freedom -- you've gone soft you lefty .  

[FancyCat]

Someone made a good point, maybe.....there isn't anyone in Izyium? At least not really? How do we know if Russia hasn't pulled as much as they did from Balakliya?

[danfrodo]

So who was it that predicted this a while ago?  Was it SBurke, or DanCA or Beleg85?  There was someone saying UKR would strike east near Kharkiv while Putin was busy being obsessed w Kherson.   Stand up and take a bow, it's was many, many forum pages ago so not sure how to find it.

[Huba]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Someone made a good point, maybe.....there isn't anyone in Izyium? At least not really? How do we know if Russia hasn't pulled as much as they did from Balakliya?

They pulled a lot, there's no doubt. But Ukrainians were pressuring it from the south and west all the time, I don't think it could be as empty, the front would break much earlier if that was the case. I heard mentions of 10K people being there. It looks like we will know soon enough 

[Eddy]

14 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting idea from Dimiytri- what if a third UKR offensive kicks off? 

Wait till RUS finally pushes what meagre reserves it has to Kharkiv,  then UKR shoves hard in another direction, eg towards Melitopol? It doesn't even need to be of similar size to Kherson/Kharkiv,  the RUS system is overstressed already. 

What would RUS have left?  

They can't reinforce  all AOs,  So at least one will fail catastrophically,  with domino effect  on the other two. 

We might only be still in the first phase of the real UKR offensive, and these two attacks are actually just the opening moves. 

Now,  isn't that a nice thought... 

That would be very difficult to do. But if they did it'd probably look something like this, in this region:

 

[Kinophile]

The key thing is,, by that point it wouldnt need much,  and UKR would still be on interior lines,able to choose where to hit and achieve local superiority.  RUS panic would be assumptive, AO wide and contagious. 

Plus UKR could then stabilize one of their flank attacks (eg Kharkiv Izium) and reinforce the center. 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Kinophile

[Grigb]

RU reports road to Kupyansk is under UKR fire.

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting idea from Dimiytri- what if a third UKR offensive kicks off? 

Wait till RUS finally pushes what meagre reserves it has to Kharkiv,  then UKR shoves hard in another direction, eg towards Melitopol? It doesn't even need to be of similar size to Kherson/Kharkiv,  the RUS system is overstressed already. 

What would RUS have left?  

They can't reinforce  all AOs,  So at least one will fail catastrophically,  with domino effect  on the other two. 

We might only be still in the first phase of the real UKR offensive, and these two attacks are actually just the opening moves.

They could be stressing the "flanks"  of the Ivan's line, forcing them to use up their reinforcements,  both in fighting and in travelling.  Pull and stretch out the RUS reserves to the ends of the line then punch through the middle. 

If that doesn't lead to collapse, nothing will. 

I posit a center attack could be aimed at Berdyansk.

Now,  isn't that a nice thought... 

This was my thinking as well.  By pulling the RA in two different directions they may stress the middle - the infamous "strategic land bridge" - to the point of breaking.  The central question is whether the UA has enough left in the gas tank to pull this off.  A double operation separated by 500km internally is tough enough, if they have enough for a third and can pull it off, the entire rotten RA house may collapse.  This entire thing has been built on months of attrition, highly accurate attrition that has made the entire RA system brittle.

Of course, it is too soon to tell.  It will be a major victory if the UA can disrupt the RA near Kherson to distraction and re-take Kherson.  A third central push would be simply brilliant but they also do not want to overstretch.  It is all in the wind right now.

Edited September 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[Grigb]

RU claims they recaptured Senkove (North bridge). 

[UPDATE] Or maybe they just surrounded the whole area.

Edited September 9, 2022 by Grigb

[paxromana]

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/spasm-escalation-russias-last-weapon-has-been-spent/

I am not sure that the assessment that China can launder Russian cash is valid ... Russia can't buy anything significant with it because sanctions ... so China, if Xi were dumb enough to buy into Russia's problems would, I assume, find that sanctions would hit China and she would find itself cut off from Western high tech and, indeed, investments ... and the Chinese economy is, if not tanking, doing very less well.

Like a lot of non experts (tho I am one as well) he seems to conflate money with what it can buy ... resources ... and that isn't even simplistic, let alone true.

In any case, it makes assumptions about Putin's (or the Russian Federation's) medium to long term survival which are a little too optimistic.

I simply can't see Xi supporting failure. Especially since, from what little I have been able to glean, a lot of Chinese military tech is ... marginal ... and the latest stuff tends not to be built in large numbers. They would perhaps not be as stuffed as the Russians arew if they were cut off from Western tech by sanctions, but they would be hit.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, riptides said:

Getting back to this....was this guy ever verified? The big deal is of course, you have him, you have his staff, plans, etc. etc.

 

the ear and the mole makes a good match

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Mattias said:

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 

Looking into the abyss and all that… 

My wife is about as Humanist as they come.  It's been a journey for her to be married to a "warmonger" game maker   I had already described (not shown) to her the pontoon strike footage, then I showed her that meme.  She laughed out loud, not just chuckled.  Why?  Because of two things:

1.  the guy uploaded the video in order to be famous.  Why else do it?  So he got his wish, though not necessarily how he intended.

2.  she has long since overcome her usual instincts to be fully Humanist about this.  Why?  She's also a very big fan of people paying a penalty for terrible actions.  It took a while for her to realize that there are no police, no courts, no social shaming that is going to stop the carnage in Ukraine or punish the individuals who engaged in it after the war is over. 

Reluctantly, she has come to terms with the sad reality that the only way forward is for Ukraine to kill as many Russians as possible in the shortest possible time.  Humiliating the Russians who are participating or supportive of this war is a kinder alternative to death.

The guy is actively and willingly going to kill innocent Ukrainians on their own territory.  He uploaded the video willingly to get attention.  He got the attention he deserves.

There are lines not to cross, but this isn't one of them IMHO. 

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

gestimated animation of the operation so far

[Grigb]

Or something completely different -Rybar says instead of failed BARS units (volunteer reserve) RU is using Storm units. These are volunteer units that are used as assault units (like wagnerites) and they are paid money for each km taken.

But RU calls them suicide squads because they get weapons, vehicles and uniforms in battle!

That is direct quote!

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

gestimated animation of the operation so far

Wow.  If those forces are accurate then this was a hybrid offensive - lotta light and SOF out front, heavier stuff on shoulders.  This wasn't fog eating snow, this was steam flash-melting snow.

Edited September 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[Huba]

Newest Rybar map. According to him, RU are counterattacking through the Oskil bridges. Let's see how the situation develops, worst case UA should be able to HIMARS the bridges easily.

[Combatintman]

50 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Russia is allegedly using Mi-26 helicopters to bring reinforcements to Izyum and Kupyansk

 

The obvious flaw in that clip is the absence of anybody either embarking or disembarking from either of the two Mi-26s.

[Grigb]

Rybar claims RU pushed UKR back from Gorokhovatka (south bridge). Currently fighting at Yasinovate.

RU did not take Senkove (North bridge) but shelling it.

Kupyansk bridge is heavily damaged.

Claim RU has diverted serious forces to this direction.

[The_MonkeyKing]

We learned from history that we didn't learn from history.

[Grigb]

Just now, Combatintman said:

The obvious flaw in that clip is the absence of anybody either embarking or disembarking from either of the two Mi-26s.

Yes, the whole thing smells like propaganda exercise for RU reporter for internal audience.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I agree. But the geographic position of Kaliningrad can't be ignored. The people there need basic resources from somewhere if Russia is forced to de-militarize the area. (As they should be). A forward base is what Russia cares about. So if Russia washes their hands of Kaliningrad, the surrounding countries would probably step in over many years. I don't see Kaliningrad being vacated anytime soon. Although much smaller, Kaliningrad - like Ukraine - has a historically unlucky place on the map. The world is not going to stop over Kaliningrad. It's not so much about a clean map of Europe than it is cleaning up the mess Russians made of that section of the map. For a fraction of the money spent on the middle east, Kaliningrad might do pretty well. 

Ooooh!  Another good point!  (I could be snarky about it coming from New Jersey, but I've had a good night's sleep so I'm all serious again )

Truly, this is a very important thing to add to the mix.  Russia's only real interest in Kaliningrad is pride ("it might be a crap hole, but it is OUR craphole!!") and as a forward military base to threaten Europe.  Demilitarization (there's some irony here!) of Kaliningrad as a precondition for normalizing relations with Russia, or whatever remains of it, should be high up on NATO/EU/US list.  If it is accepted then it will be enforced for a very long time with something other than "trust and verify".  It will be full on "distrust and verify, then verify again because there's no trust".  Even if the rump of Russia thinks they can get away with violating the terms, it won't be long before they find out that slipping a couple of thousand Euros to someone to look the other way doesn't work in this context.

At this point Kaliningrad's only importance to Russia is maintaining pride.  How important that will be will be determined by what happens to Russia politically.  If it breaks apart then nobody is likely to care about Kaliningrad as it was never a part of Russia's homeland.  Couple this with the massive cost of administering it and I don't think there's a strong case that anybody in Russia will want to keep it simply for old time's sake.

I also don't think its neighbors will want it either.  It's a liability both economically and politically.  The Baltics already have difficulty with their Russian minorities (though apparently less so now) and taking on a huge number of unreformed and perhaps unrepentant fascists isn't really an attractive concept.

The best path forward is for Kaliningrad to pursue an independent path with voluntary oversight from the West.  It is a manufacturing economy and there's a lot of benefit Europe can get from it while it reforms itself.  This is what happened with the former Warsaw Pact countries and it worked out very well for everybody involved.

Steve

[Grigb]

By the way guys, RU creates fake account of UKR units in telegrams. Be carefull. If it is in RU most likely it is fake.

[sburke]

41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So who was it that predicted this a while ago?  Was it SBurke, or DanCA or Beleg85?  There was someone saying UKR would strike east near Kharkiv while Putin was busy being obsessed w Kherson.   Stand up and take a bow, it's was many, many forum pages ago so not sure how to find it.

Wasn’t me. I’ve avoided trying to make predictions. The UA is a helluva lot smarter than me. But then so is my cat. 
closest I came was many many months ago suggesting UA hit a road junction right near the border on the road coming from Belgorod.  Nothing like this scale offensive.