How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

This is an interesting conversation. In addition to Kofman, they have a Ukrainian reserve colonel on the podcast:

 

Really interesting stuff. The newest bits , at least to me, are about what was happening right before and after 2/24.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Ivan Pozdeev, commander (?) 31st Guards Air-Assault Brigade:

This Ukrainian article says he was killed by a sniper on the 28th of July, but IDs him as commander of the 331st Airborne Regiment in the “88th Airborne Division”.  While the unit ID is clearly confused, given the previous casualties (brigade commander Colonel Sergey Karasev and battalion commanders Major Alexey Oskin and Lieutenant Colonel Denis Yagidarov) in the 31st Air-Assault Brigade, it is possible he was the Brigade commander at this time.

https://apostrophe.ua/news/society/2022-07-29/vsu-likvidirovali-komandira-kostromskogo-polka-vdv-vs-rf--razvedka/275529

Edited August 3, 2022 by akd

[panzermartin]

16 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Yes, totally. I mean he delivered a completely understandable explanation. Ukrainian nazis eat children. So he had to go there and fight them. 

Yes a 20yr old brainwashed who got drafted must be punished and humiliated like that after all. Because losing your legs is not enough punishment. Would you say the same for the unfortunate hitlerjugend kid with the panzerfaust that got crippled fighting the commies and the " red hordes" . I bet no. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not.

This area Pisky - position "Republic"- Donetsk airport - Position "Butivka" - Position "Zenit" - Wolven bridge - Avdiivka - position "Promka", not just geographical objects, but symbols of tragic heroism and fortitude of winter 2015. Because of this so sharp reaction in society.

[akd]

Presumably Javelin vs. MT-LB:

Looks like the warhead just blew a huge hole into the top.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Maybe an example of the sheeps russians are then, they didnt question the authority (driver) and nobody came in the defense of the disabled. Pathetic.

In Ukraine sometime happened this incidents. Sometimes pro-Russian (or just cheapskate) drivers of private buses rejected to to bring onboard servicemen or veterans for free despite they have legal benefits. "Let the state pays me for you!", or "I didn't send you there!" or "You was killing children and olds on Donbas!" (yeah, even this sometime can hear even in western Ukraine!). Usually solution of such incidents very fast - video or photo in social network, friends of soldier and civil activists came to driver and force him to apologize. Sometime with "fist profilactic". After this public resonance the owner in 99,9% fires such driver. 

[Cederic]

(heck)

Edited August 3, 2022 by Cederic
Just spotted the date on the thing I shared.

[panzermartin]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In Ukraine sometime happened this incidents. Sometimes pro-Russian (or just cheapskate) drivers of private buses rejected to to bring onboard servicemen or veterans for free despite they have legal benefits. "Let the state pays me for you!", or "I didn't send you there!" or "You was killing children and olds on Donbas!" (yeah, even this sometime can hear even in western Ukraine!). Usually solution of such incidents very fast - video or photo in social network, friends of soldier and civil activists came to driver and force him to apologize. Sometime with "fist profilactic". After this public resonance the owner in 99,9% fires such driver. 

And rightly so. Regardless of side is a disrespect to human life and suffering. 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes a 20yr old brainwashed who got drafted must be punished and humiliated like that after all. Because losing your legs is not enough punishment. Would you say the same for the unfortunate hitlerjugend kid with the panzerfaust that got crippled fighting the commies and the " red hordes" . I bet no. 

On one level I agree with you, and on one level I am for ANYTHING that make Russian recruitment harder. Wide circulation of this video would seem to really help the latter.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Captured Maj. Pavel Gruzev, 7th Military Base (maybe the interview contains more detail?):

Nothing interesting. He obviously repeats usual text about how evil commanders force servicemen to go at the war. 

[panzermartin]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

On one level I agree with you, and on one level I am for ANYTHING that make Russian recruitment harder. Wide circulation of this video would seem to really help the latter.

 Hmm maybe wide circulation will have the same effect Haiduk noted. But being Russia maybe nothing happens after all... 

[Haiduk]

Russian batatlion-size unit of VDV (31 BMD-2, BMD-4, BTR-D, three of them damaged and towed) on the route from Izium to Luhansk oblast where they will be embarked on the train and through Crimean bridge will move to te south of Ukraine. I think, this is 106th VDV division

 

Edited August 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Mattias]

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This area Pisky - position "Republic"- Donetsk airport - Position "Butivka" - Position "Zenit" - Wolven bridge - Avdiivka - position "Promka", not just geographical objects, but symbols of tragic heroism and fortitude of winter 2015. Because of this so sharp reaction in society.

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Actually quite a significant donation from Azerbaijan, since they only had 15 MiG-29s (I guess now 12)
 

 

[Grigb]

Map time. Today unfortunately only evening Map

Edited August 3, 2022 by Grigb

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Map time. Today unfortunately only evening Map

21st battalion in Pisky is not Territorial defense, but motorized infantry of 56th mot.inf.brigade. Though, initially in 2014 it was formed as 21st territorial defense battalion "Sarmat" of Kherson oblast

As addition - today's Maryinka (its western part) under intensive fire

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Ivan Pozdeev, commander (?) 31st Guards Air-Assault Brigade:

This Ukrainian article says he was killed by a sniper on the 28th of July, but IDs him as commander of the 331st Airborne Regiment in the “88th Airborne Division”.  While the unit ID is clearly confused, given the previous casualties (brigade commander Colonel Sergey Karasev and battalion commanders Major Alexey Oskin and Lieutenant Colonel Denis Yagidarov) in the 31st Air-Assault Brigade, it is possible he was the Brigade commander at this time.

https://apostrophe.ua/news/society/2022-07-29/vsu-likvidirovali-komandira-kostromskogo-polka-vdv-vs-rf--razvedka/275529

Of the additional ones they listed we have brigade commander Colonel Sergey Karasev

Yagidov we had listed as Mayor Denis Yagidarov, commander of airborne battlion of 31st separate air-assault brigade

We don't have anything for Major Alexey Oskin

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

21st battalion in Pisky is not Territorial defense, but motorized infantry of 56th mot.inf.brigade. Though, initially in 2014 it was formed as 21st territorial defense battalion "Sarmat" of Kherson oblast

Thank you. Fixed.

 

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

As addition - today's Maryinka (its western part) under intensive fire

 

It looks like they are trying to suppress remaining part.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Hitting RU targets with PGM is good. But it requires time. Time UKR are buying now with bodies. Do not underestimate the seriousness of the situation (I did read both UKR posts in full. It is concerning). Yes, in grand scale their losses might not be that big. But their losses are not insignificant either. 

Getting brand new weapons systems into Ukraine and to the front, especially if vehicle based, is the thing that's going to take time.  Get that going now (honestly, not sure why it hasn't been already) by all means.

What can happen right now is employing PGM 155s and HIRAMS in the Donetsk front.  This could be up and running in hours.  Position these systems far enough back that they can hit Russian artillery and frontline positions, but Russians can't hit them.  Keep them centralized so they can fire on multiple Russian points of contact without having to redeploy very far. 

First missions should be to take out basic transport infrastructure that isn't easily repaired.  Rail and bridges top priority.  These do NOT need any recon.  Google Maps is good enough to get coordinates for GPS guided munitions.

Next missions should be any confirmed concentrations of Russian men and/or material.  If intel is not realtime, then just smash the place and hope to get something or at least disrupt plans.

This can all be done now.

While this is going on, start getting intel gathering assets connected to hunt down Russian artillery pieces in realtime for the specific areas of interest.  Drones with longer ranges and aren't likely to be zapped out of the sky by EW are the likely suspects for the job.  However, NATO has some nice things floating around above the battlefield... maybe realtime data could be requested for enemy artillery in specific areas and I bet something would come from that.

Steve

 

[Haiduk]

Here is real video of detonating Russian military train in Brylivka, Kherson oblast on 29th of July. After this incident Russians evicted all inhabitants of this village in 400 m zone aside railroad. There are tough pressure on locals, searches of informators, smartphones checking etc.

  

 

Edited August 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

HIMARS o´clock...

 

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Denis Sorokin, battalion commander of 11th air-assault brigade, VDV Command, attached to Eastern Military District. Got killed on 18th of March likely in Mariupol (in TG screen wrote in Melitopol, but it's mistake, because Melitopol was captured as far as Feb 26)

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I think we might be overreacting to Pisky.  Does losing Pisky constitute a crisis?  According to someone on the ground there's a local lack of artillery, and that's bad, but for all we know UKR is moving more arty to the area.  

Let's also note that RU is able to mass arty only on this single, tiny little sector.  Does that tell us something?  It's not like they are flattening huge sectors of even that area, let alone across a broader front.  RU took a few weeks of relatively low action to prepare for its next offensive -- and it's attacking on a front this small?  I get that RU is hitting lots of places, but it's not flattening lots of places.  So I don't think we can conclude from this that RU is going to smash UKR.  We also can't conclude that UKR has an artillery crisis (I want more, much more arty sent, of course).

If RU gets Pisky they will act like it's the greatest prize in the world, but it's not.  It's just on stop on the road to Slovyansk/Kramatorsk.  And if it took them multiple weeks to set up for this grand offensive, it shows weakness not strength.  They'll have to repeat this over & over & over & over to get anywhere important.

Right?!  Gawd help us if we in the west ever get into a real war.  After the first setback we will be ready to wave white flags if this proxy war is any indication.  I am losing count of how many times the Russians take a small berg somewhere after weeks of trying and people freak out - “aaah, see the Russians are winning!  Abandon ship!!”  

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are basically spelling on bridges with arty shells and crippling Russian logistics, after collapsing a Russian front in the north, pushing them off Kharkiv, stalling then Donbas assault, and now this thing in Kherson.  But those are just flukes as the “Russians bide their time” and wait for their moment…while bleeding all over everything.

[Grigb]

To counterbalance Pisky crisis view - yes, the situation is difficult (very difficult and not only there) but while Pisky is important it is not critical. And Pisky is not lost yet. And even if it lost there are two defensive positions on the outskirts that need to be taken as well. And then Vodianoe needs to be take and etc.

On other hand RU is not in good shape either. It is already exhausted and the actual movement is slowly.

RU frontline propagandist sober assessment.

Quote

I read the reports of successes near Donetsk and  [I] am amazed. They in the rear [RU public reading news] are fighting so hard that they took the Pisky, most of the Marinka and are about to start eating up the enemy in Avdiivka. And, they say, then the life will be good. Please! Come down to earth, you who are fighting with your tongue!

Do you know how much the 1st Slavic brigade has advanced during the day of fighting here [to the south of Pisky] Pisky? 100 meters! And this is normal! The assault groups entered the enemy's strongholds and went forward along the trenches for a hundred meters, clearing pillboxes, dugouts, cracks and firing positions. Yesterday — 100, today — 100, tomorrow, God willing, another 100 and more. Just like that!
Stop running ahead of the locomotive, waving a saber! It will be good if we defeat the enemy in his Avdiivka fortified area in August.

 

[FancyCat]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is real video of detonating Russian military train in Brylivka, Kherson oblast on 29th of July. After this incident Russians evicted all inhabitants of this village in 400 m zone aside railroad. There are tough pressure on locals, searches of informators, smartphones checking etc.

  

 

Oh good, the HIMARS dont need to worry about hitting the civilians in the houses up to 400m then.