How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MSBoxer]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

I am, slightly, worried that the UKR is being too cute by half and letting the Russians accumulate too much combat power on the west bank of the River. They need to COMPLETELY drop the bridges and take the bird in hand instead of trying to win the war in a single stroke.

Hopefully I am wrong and the UKR general staff are doing their usual brilliant job, but this feels risky.

I don't think you want to drop it soon.  This could leave a major force on the west bank, making any attempt to cross that much more difficult.  Not sure where the balance is though.

 

[Beleg85]

Not directly connected to war, but close:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62313579

One of Orban's close advisers resigned after his "race speech". First I thought it was mistranslated (contexts are very difficult to catch properly in that language) but also some Hungarians are rather pissed on him, even some supporters I know personally. Orban is increasingly using strong Moscow-sponsored rhetoric in last months, he do this openly more and more. First time was his famous pathetic croak at Zelensky's remarks the day of discovery of Bucha massacre. Now this.

Last remarks were given at Summer Camp in Romania, traditional place of him giving opening speeches of new term among Szeklers, i.e. Hungarian minority in Romania. There were several hungarologists who claim that in closed parts of  those meetings he often speaks about necessity of "corection of borders" and "joining Hungarian lands again". He is no alien to highly nationalistic "Greater Hungary" idea but nurtured it rather privatelly until now. B****d is getting insolent.

Another early sign of what may happen to Europe if we break this terrible "Western-dominated international order". @panzermartin

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Machor]

6 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

I think it would be naive to assume Russian and Saudi interests would not quietly and monetarily support....Russian and Saudi interests in other countries.

I don't want to take the thread OT either, so leaving this here without comment - as factual as it gets:

F1 driver says 'what happens in Alberta is a crime,' feels responsibility to speak about climate change

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sebastian-vettel-oilsands-alberta-climate-change-1.6493309

"Sebastian Vettel arrived at the Montreal Grand Prix wearing his thoughts about climate change on his T-shirt.

The Formula One star from Germany arrived at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in a T-shirt with "Stop Mining Tar Sands," and "Canada's Climate Crime" under the picture of a pipeline. He's wearing a helmet with the same slogan this weekend.

"I think what happens in Alberta is a crime because you chop down a lot of trees and you basically destroy the place just to extract oil and the manner of doing it with the tarsands, oilsands mining, is horrible for nature," Vettel said, when asked about the T-shirt at a news conference Friday.

...

His team Aston Martin is sponsored by Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil giant Aramco."

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

23th of July became the black day for 28th mech,brigade. In result of Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv, brigade HQ was hit. Commander of the brigade, colonel Vitaliy Huliayev and three lt.colonels Oleksandr Dayneko, Valentyn Serhiyenko, Vitaliy Bonderev were killed. 

On the photo - colonel Vitalyi Huliayev.

Yes, I posted news about his death earlier, however did not know also 3 other high ranking officers were dead in that airstrike. Painfull loss indeed.

Btw. do you know something more about Vuklehirska withdrawal?

Edited July 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Vacillator]

4 minutes ago, Machor said:

I don't want to take the thread OT

I think you have, but whatever, it's an interesting point. 

IMO he is right about the issues he mentions but he is at best forgetful of the sponsorship he receives.  And I say that as a supporter of a newly Saudi owned football club (NUFC).

And... back in the room.

[MikeyD]

Nobody calls them 'assassination drones'.

[BFCElvis]

We've been straying here with a coupla/few posts, folks. Let's keep it on track. Thanks.

[OldSarge]

5 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Nobody calls them 'assassination drones'.

"Loitering munitions" please, we don't want to upset the civilians.

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. do you know something more about Vuklehirska withdrawal?

No official info. I read an info that DPR/Russian group, already came to close rears not only power plant, but also close to Semyhirya, so withrawal was a question of nearest days. Looks like our command didn't want to bring the situation as it was in Zolote - Hirske.

[OldSarge]

I haven't seen this interview with LTG (ret) Hertling posted here yet. No surprises, just more eyes waiting to see what UA does in Kherson.

 

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Nobody calls them 'assassination drones'.

3 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

"Loitering munitions" please, we don't want to upset the civilians.

I'm pretty sure I got that name here - and given warhead of the smaller switchblade that makes it mostly useful for killing few people mostly in the open, it's a pretty good description, no?

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

23th of July became the black day for 28th mech,brigade. In result of Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv, brigade HQ was hit. Commander of the brigade, colonel Vitaliy Huliayev and three lt.colonels Oleksandr Dayneko, Valentyn Serhiyenko, Vitaliy Bonderev were killed. 

On the photo - colonel Vitalyi Huliayev.

 

 

Peace to their families

Glory to Ukraine

Napalm to the Russians

[sburke]

"The command post of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the rashists and their ammunition depot in the P'yatykhaty area were destroyed.
The final losses of the enemy are being investigated."
–Operational Command "South" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 25 July 2022

Guess we'll be seeing some more additions soon.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No official info. I read an info that DPR/Russian group, already came to close rears not only power plant, but also close to Semyhirya, so withrawal was a question of nearest days. Looks like our command didn't want to bring the situation as it was in Zolote - Hirske.

Yep, it was expected, they defended the plant for around a month anyway. At this rate of advance Russians will not cross Bakhmut/Siviersk line until late autumn, if at all.

Also, interesting read about effect of sanctions (sorry if posted before):

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

 

[DesertFox]

Lets wait and see how the target looks in daylight:

 

 

[panzermartin]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not directly connected to war, but close:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62313579

One of Orban's close advisers resigned after his "race speech". First I thought it was mistranslated (contexts are very difficult to catch properly in that language) but also some Hungarians are rather pissed on him, even some supporters I know personally. Orban is increasingly using strong Moscow-sponsored rhetoric in last months, he do this openly more and more. First time was his famous pathetic croak at Zelensky's remarks the day of discovery of Bucha massacre. Now this.

Last remarks were given at Summer Camp in Romania, traditional place of him giving opening speeches of new term among Szeklers, i.e. Hungarian minority in Romania. There were several hungarologists who claim that in closed parts of  those meetings he often speaks about necessity of "corection of borders" and "joining Hungarian lands again". He is no alien to highly nationalistic "Greater Hungary" idea but nurtured it rather privatelly until now. B****d is getting insolent.

Another early sign of what may happen to Europe if we break this terrible "Western-dominated international order". @panzermartin

 

The thing is I know if the "western order" falls, my country will be in the frontlines, as the border of EU in SE Mediterranean. 

So I didn't want this war in the first place. I had only wished for Russia and Europe coming together for the prosperity of the continent but there's no hope now...

 

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The thing is I know if the "western order" falls, my country will be in the frontlines, as the border of EU in SE Mediterranean. 

So I didn't want this war in the first place. I had only wished for Russia and Europe coming together for the prosperity of the continent but there's no hope now...

Sorry for banality, but this is most approriate answer, mate (and I would say in longer time there is a lot more hope now. BTW. I find this book more and more relevant seeing this war progressing.):

Edited July 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[panzermartin]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry for banality, but this is most approriate answer, mate:

Haha, I wish there was some Gandalf around to make things crystal clear. 

[dan/california]

54 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry for banality, but this is most approriate answer, mate (and I would say in longer time there is a lot more hope now. BTW. I find this book more and more relevant seeing this war progressing.):

I have hade that thought a number of times in the last months. He learned a great deal in the Great War, and distilled it masterfully.

Scholz would benefit from watching this bit thirty or forty times

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Lets wait and see how the target looks in daylight:

 

 

"I don't know art, but I know what I like".  And that video is a masterpiece.  Can't wait to see what this looks like when the sun comes up.  

[DesertFox]

As always Phillips OBrian is worth a read:

Suggested paper:

Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Franek Sokolowski, Michal Wyrebkowski, Mateusz Kasprowicz :: SSRN

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Haha, I wish there was some Gandalf around to make things crystal clear. 

If you meet one turn around and run.  War when is viewed as history it seems so clear - when you are living one it is a chaotic mess with nothing but shades of grey in every direction.

Edited July 27, 2022 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

Precisely. Tolkien wrote an allegory about power, not war.

[billbindc]

A salutary correction to the idea that Russia is winning the economic war of attrition: 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

[Battlefront.com]

Just catching up (again) and three things struck me about the various translations and commentary by Grigb:

1. In my pre-war view Russia was destined to be unable to win a political victory, dragging out the pain of both economic and military sacrifices without end.  This would cause Russian elites to break into two camps; pragmatists understand victory is impossible and ultra nationalists who refuse to recognize reality.  In my view, the pragmatists aren't just "doves" and "liberals", but also powerful people that simply see the war for what it really is... unwinnable.  Could be high ranking FSB or military or even within Putin's inner circle that otherwise would be pro-war, pro-Putin.
   The worse the battlefield results, the longer the economic pain, the more hardened the two sides become. 
2. The talk about "truce" underscores what I just said above.  Whatever would be palatable to the pragmatists and ultra nationalists would not likely be acceptable to Ukraine and it's Western backers.  Since Russia is now effectively done with its offensive capabilities (Girkin said as much) and Ukraine has the ability to shape the battlefield., there is no reason to suspect that there is a "truce" option for Russia.  Which means the war goes on and the a fight between the pragmatists and ultra nationalists draws closer.
3. The pragmatists seem to understand how this war is affecting Russia's economic capabilities to function as a nation state.  In their view the war has to stop and trade resumed before there is nothing left to trade with.  The ultra nationalists, however, delude themselves that there's a magic wand (mobilization) that can make all the problems go away.  As the full impact of economic isolation hits Russia the two sides are going to be more forceful to get their way.  And thus increasing the chances of civil war.

I'm only an amateur, part time thinker on this sort of stuff and even I could see this is the direction Russia would head in if it launched a full scale war against Ukraine and failed to win it outright.  And since I was convinced for years now that it was impossible for Russia to decisively beat Ukraine, I've been convinced the Russian Federation as we know it would end if it invaded Ukraine with the intention of destroying it as an independent nation state.  That was my prewar thinking and it's only been reinforced 10 fold since then.  Seems the guys Grigb is translating for us are just now starting to understand the edges of where things are really ati.

Putin gambled with the Russian Federation's future and lost.

Steve