How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Oh yeah, it really does make sense: stop doing the thing that hurts.

What I was getting at is a version of the old OODA loop - maybe call it the OOLA loop? Observe - Orient - Logistics - Act. If your logistics are spread out because otherwise they keep turning into impromptu Guy Fawkes displays, then the L part of your loop is going to be really slow. While that would make Patton sad, it doesn't really matter as long as sides are broadly under the same constraint. But if the other guy can keep his logistics consolidated, or at least more consolidated than you can, then he's going to be running rings around you.

This is an element and example of war-is-negotiation that The Capt keeps talking about.

Totally agree.  Here's the way it looks to me. 

Ukraine started out the war with a highly decentralized "just in time" logistics system.  It seemed adequate for the more static warfare of the last 8 years, but when things needed to scale up and cover vastly more territory the system broke down pretty badly in places.  Even though material was piling up in Lviv, delivery was constrained (probably beyond deliberate choice).  Some of the TD units had to source their own food and basic sustainment items, including the methods for getting them delivered.  Fortunately for Ukraine, the crowd sourced approach flew into action and seems to have largely done what was needed to keep defenders defending.

Russia, on the other hand, had a centralized logistics system that was scaled for this sort of operation, but so marred by poor planning, execution, and resiliency that for a while Russia had great difficulties keeping their non-static units supplied.  This contributed to the collapse of deep penetrating maneuver forces.

This meant that early on both sides had major problems, but of the two of them Russia suffered more because there's more margin for error with a defending unit than for an attacking one. 

What we see now is that Ukraine's decentralized system seems to be working pretty well.  Again, their forces are mostly on the defensive so that's a concern for them if they are going to move significant distances.  Russia's system seems to have been working much better as well, but HIRAMS changed that.

I think we're going to be in a situation where both sides can sustain defensive only.  This is more of a problem for Russia because they are still expected to gain territory.  So it will be interesting to see how this affects Russia's ability to do things like saturate the battlefield with artillery.

Steve

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, JonS said:

Crabs on the move, by road:

Note: sideways movement

I just checked my crabs and they don't move sideways... oh wait was that too much information... too personal?  

[JonS]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

I just checked my crabs and they don't move sideways... oh wait was that too much information... too personal?  

You are special, sburke. Just like your crabs.

[FancyCat]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure the bitching was warranted.  I guess I didn't make my point about that very clear, so here goes..

The guys who joined up for money and yet were being stiffed wound up staying to fight even though the money they were promised wasn't paid as it should have been.  You or I, and probably anybody on this Forum, would have left the scene entirely.  As you say, money is not a good motivator in the first place, so why risk life and limb for someone that isn't even living up to what they agreed to pay?  And yet the Russians stayed fighting.  Makes me think that there's something different going on with their culture compared to ours.

I do agree that under extreme circumstances monetary motivation isn't likely going to be the make or break part of the equation.  If they stay then they're staying for reasons other than money.

Steve

Can they leave tho? From what I can tell, once your in Ukraine, your screwed, not until you get back over the border can you walk away and get a lawyer to contest desertion charges so you get a better chance of walking away once you get sent back to Russia to refit and regroup.

Maybe you could surrender to Ukraine....but to be frank, at this current stage in the conflict I don't see Ukraine from a pro-russian viewpoint as winning decisively enough to make that viable unless your going to die otherwise.

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Can they leave tho? From what I can tell, once your in Ukraine, your screwed, not until you get back over the border can you walk away and get a lawyer to contest desertion charges so you get a better chance of walking away once you get sent back to Russia to refit and regroup.

Maybe you could surrender to Ukraine....but to be frank, at this current stage in the conflict I don't see Ukraine from a pro-russian viewpoint as winning decisively enough to make that viable unless your going to die otherwise.

 For sure the Russian officers try to convince the soldiers they can not leave, but that isn't really the case.  Someone posted this very good article from the Russian language version of The Moscow Times (through Google Translate):

https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.goog/2022/07/18/tisyachi-rossiiskih-voennih-pitayutsya-uvolitsya-iz-armii-a22360?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It references some earlier examples of mass defections.  There's more than that even, with the South Ossetia unit being my personal favorite.  More than a hundred of them hitchhiked home.

The basic gist of this is that Russian authorities are in a bind about what to do.  Legally many can, in fact, leave military service prematurely.  This is easiest to do when still in Russia, but it supposedly can be done anywhere with a bit more difficulty.  The option for Russian commanders is to try and tell them they can't do it, "lose" their paperwork, threaten, or bribe.

For those who clearly violate Russian law and leave their posts, there is the problem of what to do with them afterwards.  Public trials of thousands of individuals doesn't really send a good message to the rest, does it?  I mean, why would thousands of soldiers leave Ukraine and face severe punishment if the war is going so well, right?  The article (or one of the articles linked from above) shows the unit that tried to publicly shame the soldiers who refused to go to Ukraine, but were told to stop that because it called attention to the fact that there are morale problems.

Russians would rather go back home and face possible consequences there than probably wind up in a prison cell in Ukraine, then maybe handed over to Russian authorities on a prisoner swap.

Steve

[dan/california]

We may have our first morale test case in progress if the Russians can't break out. There is some indication it is a Naval infantry unit. There is not enough info to figure out if these are real infantry/marines, or just everyone from some godforsaken base near Vladivostok who did an insufficiently good job of looking busy, and or running like bleep when the base commander had to round up a battalion from nothing. 

[dan/california]

If the above timeline is correct it implies extraordinary command incompetence from the Russians. Or maybe Putin has given some insane no retreat order, those worked out so well for Hitler after all. 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 For sure the Russian officers try to convince the soldiers they can not leave, but that isn't really the case.  Someone posted this very good article from the Russian language version of The Moscow Times (through Google Translate):

https://www-moscowtimes-ru.translate.goog/2022/07/18/tisyachi-rossiiskih-voennih-pitayutsya-uvolitsya-iz-armii-a22360?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It references some earlier examples of mass defections.  There's more than that even, with the South Ossetia unit being my personal favorite.  More than a hundred of them hitchhiked home.

The basic gist of this is that Russian authorities are in a bind about what to do.  Legally many can, in fact, leave military service prematurely.  This is easiest to do when still in Russia, but it supposedly can be done anywhere with a bit more difficulty.  The option for Russian commanders is to try and tell them they can't do it, "lose" their paperwork, threaten, or bribe.

For those who clearly violate Russian law and leave their posts, there is the problem of what to do with them afterwards.  Public trials of thousands of individuals doesn't really send a good message to the rest, does it?  I mean, why would thousands of soldiers leave Ukraine and face severe punishment if the war is going so well, right?  The article (or one of the articles linked from above) shows the unit that tried to publicly shame the soldiers who refused to go to Ukraine, but were told to stop that because it called attention to the fact that there are morale problems.

Russians would rather go back home and face possible consequences there than probably wind up in a prison cell in Ukraine, then maybe handed over to Russian authorities on a prisoner swap.

Steve

This showed up in my feed just before I read your reply. Of course people fall thru the cracks, but 230 Russian citizen soldiers locked up in the LNR? Using Google translate, a soldier who left the front in Ukraine had to travel with a eye towards not being shot. Interestingly, he talks about making the same decision to go to war, if he redid it, would do it all over again, and has arguments over the validity of the justification of defending the Donbas from Ukraine (the 8 years reference I believe)

Also notable, many cite the poor conditions in the military, but not ideological reasons for not going to war, and these seem to be persuadable to go back to Ukraine with promises of better equipment and treatment.

 

 

 

 

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

He wasn't a traitor. He always and openly declared own pro-Russian position. 

You are very kind man. But declaring pro-murderous position that will result in death and destruction of your own nation is textbook definition of traitor.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

The German-dutch 414th Tank Batallion now has a dutch commander. This is important since it means that the Netherlands have realized that the age of the tank is far from over. From the left to the right.: luitenant-kolonel Bas Schillemans, commander 43 Gemechaniseerde Brigade brigadegeneraal Roland de Jong and the German departing commander  Ruppelt Hagen.

That the dutch army is still a force to be reckoned with, was last year proven by the international shooting competition Iron Wolf between Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland  Spain, Slowakia, UK and US. A dutch tank crew, part of the enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania, beat them all during the international shooting contest in Latvia and won the Gold medal. The dutch armored infantry, thanks to the CV90 APC, won Silver and only had to make place for Norway, which won the Gold.

Still a long way to go, I know, but definitely important.

https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/27/nederlandse-tankbemanning-nog-steeds-aan-de-top

Edited July 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[poesel]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

EU Army would basically demand whole Europe becoming federal state. Absolutelly impossible under current conditions, too many contradictory interests. However, if Germany and several others finally cut off ties with Russia in let's say 5-7 years (they are on right track), I don't see entire project as complete nonsense in longer time.

The current timeline is 2024 so two cold winters to go.

The EU army will come in existence because of money. The need for a good army should by now be clear to everyone. But it is simply too expensive for each state to have a universal modern army with all the branches.
The process will be an endless bickering about costs and who gets to order it around (e.g. France has a presidential army (AFAIK) while Germany has a parliamentary one). I guess it will at least start under NATO with some EU influence.

[chuckdyke]

Looks like a modern military to protect the interest of the old Hanseatic league. Tell putin Novgorod belonged to it too. 

[Grigb]

Regarding whether refuseniks can leave or not and what motivates them to stay, it not a simple issue and it is evolving because RU command is trying to do something about it.

• In ideal world RU refusenik either draftee or contract solder can easily get away - as far as I know due to 1st Chechen War legacy a draftee has a lot of excuses to leave and contract soldier will get some issues but not serious. It is one of the reasons RU Nats are screaming for mobilization to change that.
• But the world is not ideal, and RU has certain cultural differences not only to westerners but to UKR as well. Basically, we are talking about young inexperienced males who are under peer pressure and who unlike Westerners are indoctrinated into RU infantilism. So, for them being responsible for your own life and doing something about it is difficult. They came to the army to live completely opposite life after all.
• Then we are getting RU command reaction. They are making it more difficult so only determined refuseniks can leave. Initially they tried to put peer pressure on refusniks with talks or the use of traitor stamps.  Then they started blocking leaving process by making it extremely inconvenient like losing request to leave documents, not providing transport, or even not accepting refusenik weapons (you cannot leave if you have weapons on hands and if you try then you will get much more serious consequences including shooting to death during arrest). Finally, as the problem got worse, they decided to illegally imprison at least some refuseniks, but I believe so far it is a scare tactic. Prison camp is a waste of manpower they cannot afford unless it serves as negative motivation for imprisoned.
• But i do believe that determined refuseniks are still able to leave at the end. Because as I said there are not that many legal problems. 

So, some refuseniks can leave, some cannot and for some it is too culturally difficult, and it is better to move with the flow hopping for the best.  

[Taranis]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

The current timeline is 2024 so two cold winters to go.

The EU army will come in existence because of money. The need for a good army should by now be clear to everyone. But it is simply too expensive for each state to have a universal modern army with all the branches.
The process will be an endless bickering about costs and who gets to order it around (e.g. France has a presidential army (AFAIK) while Germany has a parliamentary one). I guess it will at least start under NATO with some EU influence.

Yes, you are right, the French president is the suprem commander of the French Army forces.

[Grigb]

RU Nat impressions from "liberated "Lisichansk

Quote

July 2022
Lisichansk, Luhansk People's Republic.

Personal impression of the author of the channel about the city:

Despite the fact that the city is under our control, the city itself is as hostile as possible.

The reason for the hostility is that almost all the young people were involved in ter.defence AFU in one way or another. Some with personal direct participation, some as an accomplice.

With the retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the city, the youth also left.

In the video - the only representative of the youth that I saw in the city. [lone young woman]

It is noteworthy that they all went to Dnepropetrovsk.

At the same time, their relatives, acquaintances, friends (including those whom we killed during the offensive) remained in the city. And they actively and comprehensively provide information and other support to the Ukrainian DRG [Recon and Diversion Groip] operating in the city, which, in turn, kills the militia posts at night.

Such murals as in the photo are all over the city. [Glory to UKR + poetry could not translate ]

The residents themselves shout obscenities in the wake and show indecent gestures.

 

[Grigb]

RU Nat related to VKS published what he claimed UKR 2019 Recommendations [for] "preparation and implementation specialized staff training”

Quote

The scheme-sample for filling in (!) the plan for conducting the KSHT [Command and Staff exercise] of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from their manual on conducting command and staff training, dated February 2019.
The composition of the groups of troops is different than it turned out in the end (contingent names are taken as general designations, but if you look at the contingent signs, you can see that the formations and units are real), the directions of strikes and even the depth of the advance of the troops strikingly coincide with what happened three years later.

Even if it is real (it does looks too elaborate for RU propaganda) it is too late, and RU already knows it so putting it here for CMBS 2 scenarios. 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

The current timeline is 2024 so two cold winters to go.

The EU army will come in existence because of money. The need for a good army should by now be clear to everyone. But it is simply too expensive for each state to have a universal modern army with all the branches.
The process will be an endless bickering about costs and who gets to order it around (e.g. France has a presidential army (AFAIK) while Germany has a parliamentary one). I guess it will at least start under NATO with some EU influence.

The Netherlands is doing a lot of ordering at the moment, like 96 Ratheon made Patriot surface to air missiles and I think that goes for all NATO countries. Standardization where possible is key and so is the interoperability with the US. 

[womble]

52 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Nat impressions from "liberated "Lisichansk 

Oh aye. Proper "liberated", those guys. Totally welcoming the RU with open arms and flowers in their hair. It's what they've always wanted.

Further proof that the Russian expansionism is more closely related to Nazi ideals of lebensraum than to the unification of Germany after the wall came down.

[Grigb]

Parsing through RU news found the site of RU online project about last local independent journalists (eng).  

Below are some excerpts from their stories after the start of the war.

Quote

"ZHUKOVSKY NEWS" Zhukovsky offline newspaper

Ela Znamenskaya Editor-in-chief

"Citizens demand blood"

There was no question of whether or not to write about the war. We understand that we work to say what we think is right. If we shut up, the years of work before that would be wasted.

We have an audience that does not recognize the special operation in Ukraine and considers it a war. But there are also many city residents, not bots, who believe that we may stand up for their rights for more than 20 years but are not allowed to have an opinion.

Before the fake news law came along, we broke loose and published columns presenting our straightforward opinion on what was going on. The problem with print newspapers is that their audience is older people. But after the 24 February, young people came to us to buy newspapers to put them in the mailboxes of their blocks of flats. People wanted to explain to their neighbors and friends that not everything was going as smooth [as they said on TV].

After these columns came out, we received calls and letters telling us how wrong we were or that we were agents of the State Department. The head of the city received a letter asking him to close down our newspaper (which, by the way, is private) and offer us a job in a public toilet.

Before the media’s Instagram was blocked (due to complaints from users — note by the project team), we received messages suggesting we go to Israel and indicating specific flights.

There was one particularly remarkable case was when a woman came to the United Russia’s (Russian ruling party) reception office to complain about how wrong we were. She didn’t complain about roads being so ****ed up, the yards being a mess, or why the city’s main sewage plant is in disrepair and can burst at any moment. No, she came to ask them to deal with us.

The United Russia acted in their usual way: they told her to go to the police. I don’t know if she went there or not, but I keep getting indignant calls at least once a day warning me that the authorities are about to deal with us.

The hardest moment for me was when at the end of March some people came to the editorial office, and I knew them because I had helped them [as a journalist]. They came to say that I was disgracing our science city with my columns. And that, after I had spent a huge amount of time helping them, pestering officials, pushing for solutions to their problems. I thought that these people would feel grateful to us, but they felt obliged to say that we were traitors.

The most interesting thing I realized from talking to them is that as soon as a new problem arises, they will come to us again. All this causes cognitive dissonance. It seems to me that there has been a breakdown in the mental health of the Russian society.

 

Quote

Zvezda - online magazine Perm

Stepan Khlopov Editor-in-Chief

At the end of April, we decided to launch a print newspaper. It all started with a joke — we realized at one of our briefings that it was impossible to break through the overwhelming propaganda. But we had to do something to reach our audience. We decided to get back to samizdat — after all, this is what Soviet dissidents did, why don’t we do it too?

...We’ve never invited anyone to spread this leaflet, it just happened [by itself]. Three Perm residents were detained in the city center while distributing the newspaper. The first-instance court sitting took place already: the trial was postponed for two people, and one girl was found guilty of discrediting the Russian armed forces and got a 35,000-ruble fine. Her lawyer is now filing an appeal to the regional court, but most likely to no avail.

We understand our responsibility and are going to announce a fundraising campaign to help her pay the fine. I feel that we will collect the necessary amount, as I see people’s reaction: they are writing to us and supporting those who are not afraid to take part in pacifist activities.

 

Quote

Leaflet - Altai offline newspaper

Victor Rau Editor-in-Chief

— Legally, they can only make claims against me. But in reality, the authorities go rogue. They searched the editorial office, seized phones and computers. They came to my home and confiscated my laptop and phone, which had been seized under the previous criminal case in February. You would think everything would be happening in a civilized way, but they do what they want. Law does not exist in Russia.

The day before the search, my phone went out, so I took it to the repair shop and left it there. The next evening, I came to pick it up, turned it on, and it was bursting with messages and missed calls — about their coming to Mikhailov and closing the editorial office for searches.

Despite everything I had to keep working, objectively covering what was happening in Ukraine. And the fact that we found ourselves in a fascist state.

Maybe I wouldn’t have left if I could. But nine years ago, my daughter died in an accident, and I became her son’s guardian. At some point they started digging under this story: for example, after the elections, from which I was removed for taking part in rallies. They called, saying they needed to draw up new guardianship rights. I might have stayed, even if I had been imprisoned, but I made this difficult decision so that my grandson would not be taken away to an orphanage.

 

Quote

Chelyabinsk Urbanist - Chelyabinsk online project

Lev Vladov blogger

— On February 24, I right away wrote a post appealing to the authorities. I said that now, in the early hours, it was important to make a bold step. For instance, to quit the party. I realized that there was no point in appealing to the townspeople. "No to war" — well, who would be influenced by that. But if on that day, deputies and officials had said: "I did not sign up for this", this could have been effective.

I was taken aback by how bloodthirsty my subscribers were. This was the first post that was misunderstood and harshly criticized by my subscribers. Curses flowed. I thought maybe I should wait, maybe they were in some kind of shock. I wrote another post, a longer and more emotional one, on February 26. And there [in the comments] I found even more aggression and bloodlust.

I had a very loyal audience, I was a kind of local hero, not anonymous, born and raised in Chelyabinsk, "our guy". And I was threatened with physical violence. For the first time, I was scared, not of the state, but of my own subscribers, who could see me on the street and kick me in the head, thinking that this was their way of saving their homeland from a "traitor".

I decided to go to Yekaterinburg, a neighboring city. Then came the news about Medvedev proposing to bring back death penalty for traitors, about 15 years for "fakes"… I realized that if I wanted to continue writing, I would have to leave.

At the same time, I have large media resources in my city. This is my information weapon which I want to use. And I realized that in one or two weeks I would not have such an opportunity anymore. So, I flew to Saint Petersburg and crossed the border into Estonia there.

 

Quote

Zhivoy Region - Bryansk YouTube channel

Alexander Markin blogger

— Since February 24, I’ve been writing about how Bryansk is protesting. Since the beginning of the war, people have been active in sending me materials — they do need a place to collect information about the city without censorship. Judging by the amount of feedback, I see that many people are against the war. But some people don’t really understand what can be done in these circumstances, as they are intimidated. But even when an "increased level of terrorist threat" was announced in the Bryansk region, people continued to glue leaflets and tie green ribbons.

When [the Youtube channel] Redaktsiya issued a long report about Bryansk, I tweeted a thread saying that a lot of people were protesting in the city: people picketed, were fined, then had problems at work. A person hung a leaflet on his window only to see a police truck coming to his home and ten policemen pounding on his door. And Alexei Pivovarov’s Redaktsiya said nothing at all about these people.

After this thread, people began to send information even more actively. New posts about new leaflets and green ribbons appearing here and there in the city are published almost every day in Zhivoy Region. Protest activity in the city is on the rise even to compare with 2014. I was only 15 years old back then, and I felt that everyone around me supported the war, and I didn’t see any platform that would aggregate opposition content and show people that they are not alone, as Zhivoy Region is doing now.

 

[Grigb]

Looks like RU propagandists got secret memo to joke about NATO weapons including HIMARS. It even caused a split of one infamous RU Nat TG channel. One of the authors did not agree with removing the sober post about HIMARS. 

It looks like this

• Javelin and NLAW did not help and UKR are abandoned them because RPG is more convenient!
•  155mm somewhat dangerous but we have SO MUCH MORE GUNS!
• That Multiple rocket launcher is not more practical than Smerch or Tornado!
• We had not even begun yet!

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Looks like RU propagandists got secret memo to joke about NATO weapons including HIMARS. It even caused a split of one infamous RU Nat TG channel. One of the authors did not agree with removing the sober post about HIMARS. 

It looks like this

• Javelin and NLAW did not help and UKR are abandoned them because RPG is more convenient!
•  155mm somewhat dangerous but we have SO MUCH MORE GUNS!
• That Multiple rocket launcher is not more practical than Smerch or Tornado!
• We had not even begun yet!

Isn't a little truth in there. 155 aren't the game changers that was hoped in those numbers provided to Ukraine. And I was wondering there are also Soviet guided MLRS that can hit warehouses and command posts already in extreme long ranges , what is so much special about Himars. 

Edited July 22, 2022 by panzermartin

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, JonS said:

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

You mean why he does not move by road?

Crabs on the move, by road

Damn, I didn't connected the dots and get dumbfounded temporary.  Probably an after-effect of exposure to Russian propaganda channels.

2 hours ago, poesel said:

The current timeline is 2024 so two cold winters to go.

The EU army will come in existence because of money. The need for a good army should by now be clear to everyone. But it is simply too expensive for each state to have a universal modern army with all the branches.
The process will be an endless bickering about costs and who gets to order it around (e.g. France has a presidential army (AFAIK) while Germany has a parliamentary one). I guess it will at least start under NATO with some EU influence.

Yes, Winter is Coming. Let's hope European resolve will not melt after it. Mental change would need to take much longer than 2 years, but the process seem to be starting.

EU Army, if ever put to life, would not replace nation armies, but would probably be some form of Quick Reaction Force. The problem would be not military itself, but political will and chain of command. Consensus-built Union decision structures simply aren't able to react fast enough.

 

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1550233382264643585

Look how Medvedeev is trying to sell itself as true hawk. And this empathy towards suffering soldiers...

Edited July 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

Just now, panzermartin said:

Isn't a little truth in there. 155 aren't the game changers that was hoped in those numbers provided to Ukraine. 

Except it immediately allowed UKR to engage targets previously RU though safe. We are focused on HIMARS as they hit spectacularly. But it was 155mm that started to engage RU targets in Donetsk causing severe stress among RU. 

And I did not even mention the political damage the shelling caused to RU.   

Just now, panzermartin said:

And I was wondering there are also Soviet guided MLRS that can hit warehouses and command posts already, what is so much special about Himars. 

One can hit warehouses/HQ and others may hit or may not. If you want to hit something with RU MLRs you have to really saturate area with huge amount of MLRS and pray they will hit it eventualy. That means two things:

• You will not kill much of RU officers because they have time to run to cover
• You cannot hit RU warehouses without causing excessive civilian casualties.

Plus bridge denial. What UKR do with bridge in Kherson RU might not be able to do at all. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Isn't a little truth in there. 155 aren't the game changers that was hoped in those numbers provided to Ukraine. And I was wondering there are also Soviet guided MLRS that can hit warehouses and command posts already in extreme long ranges , what is so much special about Himars. 

What is special about HIMARS is that they are linked into a western backed ISR/TA architecture.  The UA can see with very high resolution, we know the US has been feeding them intel, likely spaced-based, pretty much from day one.  The Russians, as was noted a few pages back, do not have anything near that level of resolution, likely why they are hitting large buildings they can see from G-earth.  While UA is hitting ammo dumps and logistical nodes faster than the RA can build them.

Western artillery had a similar effect - we actually do not know how well c-btty did at Severodonetsk - however their ranges were more modest.  UA has information superiority right now, and it has been decisive.  The RA cannot conduct operational manoeuvre as a result and has been forced into very high concentrations of mass to take very little real estate, very slowly- all at a burn rate it cannot likely sustain.

Finding beats flanking.

Edited July 22, 2022 by The_Capt