How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

I just stopped right there. None of that is true. Russia planned on a 3 day blitz. Everything we saw early on indicated that. The stupid rush on Kiev, the poorly planned air landings, the limited supplies provided etc. Russia needed and expected this to be a quick overwhelming onslaught. They didn’t plan for 5 months much less a year. They didn’t plan for a swift united western response, they didn’t plan for a cratering economy and they most definitely didn’t plan for the humiliating destruction of their best equipped units by the UA.

russia has the tiger by the tail now. They are royally fk’d. 

yeah, I agree w SBurke.  Too many folks still think of Putin's plan as an invasion cake with coup icing.  It's a coup cake with invasion icing.  Meaning the military invasion was the icing on the cake.  The Ukrainian command and control people were supposed to all be dead on day one, with puppet immediately going on television & radio to tell everyone it was already over, while local bribed traitors (mayors, etc) kept local order.  Then Putin does victory dance by day 3, western powers unable to respond because it's a fait accompli.

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

I think it's like @Grigb said, it's just an load-bearing structure to be covered with earth/ sandbags which provide most of the cover. Surely beats wooden constructions in every way.

True, but unlike WW2, it can be spotted by a drone and destroyed by mortar fire even if it is in a defilade position with earth on top of it - seems like a bit of a deathtrap to me but I might be wrong 

[Artkin]

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

russia has the tiger by the tail now. They are royally fk’d. 

I agree with this. Fine, what's your theory of an attack on years of prepared positions in the muddy season then?

No fool would think they could assault Ukraine via the road network alone.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Artkin

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Also worth pointing out that satellites can probably track where these are installed to tenth of a meter. The Ukrainians might be able to work them like a set of practice targets.

It's fantasizing at this point, but if UA was to seriously try a mechanized breaktrough western style ( assuming AD is sorted out, they have enough forces and are in general prepared) I imagine they would try to achieve it by massive, concentrated barrage of PGMs. Launching a few hundred Excaliburs in few minutes and GMLRS on top, against all reconnoitered bunkers, gun emplacements, basically anything worth hitting, in a relatively narrow part of the front line. Shock and awe, but purely ground-launched.

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I agree with this. Fine, what's your theory on an attack on years of prepared positions in the muddy season then?

No fool would think they could assault Ukraine via the road network alone.

Sure they would.  They did. They expected resistance to be minimal. Go back and read the first few hundred pages of this thread as we saw exactly that unfold. 
remember the 40 mile convoy?

Edited July 13, 2022 by sburke

[Artkin]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

Sure they would.  They did. They expected resistance to be minimal. 

I don't believe this. Ukraine had one of the largest ground armies in Europe before the fight. I think the fighting toward Kiev was Russia's primary effort to negotiate the Dniepr defensive line. It was a gambit, they lost it. But what fool would seriously think Ukraine would capitulate after having years of combat experience on their own border. That's total nonsense. Years of war probably strengthened their discontempt of Russia and added to their will to fight.

Edit: Of course I remember the convoy but I think this was the typical logistics slog. That axis of advance was extremely narrow.

All of us are speculating here, don't forget.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Artkin

[Huba]

Here's an extremely interesting article about UA rapid drone technology development. I really recommend reading the whole thing, but some key takeaways:

- UA has AI that identifies camouflaged targets

- and probably assists in the attack itself

- decentralized, rapid prototyping approach is extremely agile and cost effective, delivering rapid improvements

Only thing missing is automatic mode - point the drone swarm into a grid square and order them to obliterate everything they find. If this war takes longer, that's what we are going to see IMO.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Did you watch the youtube movie from the Austrian army I've posted? Would like to hear your opinion about it. Seriously. And the opinion of @Steve, @Capt and others. It seems like this war will drag on for a long time.

At 5:42, he states its unknown how many Ukrainians were captured or killed in the cauldron, the lack of Russian POW captures would indicate a very low amount were captured at least. At 7:38, he mentions the BTGs, but ISW and others have pointed out that the BTG theory vs reality of force makeup is very skewed and its much harder to compare BTG vs BTG for force disparity. 11:45, he talks about the lack of air defense and aircraft for Ukraine, except we continue to get evidence that helicopters and aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force are still sortieing out, and the fact Russia refrains from air sorties into UKR territory that it should be doing to suppress UKR western artillery pieces, does not mesh with his statement that all air power or defense of Ukraine is dead. Plus Snake Island, if Ukraine had no more air defense or aircraft, why did Russia fail to hold the island against a artillery battery? Why are Harpoon launchers still able to keep Russian ships from nearing Odessa? 

Also....im sure hes a great military officer, etc, etc, what sources of intel is he getting from? Austria is not part of NATO, Austria's intelligence agencies are hallowed out after this, Russian infiltration into both the Foreign Ministry and Intelligence agencies being present and high-level, and were frozen out of intel sharing as a result. 

The biggest concern is why he ignored Snake Island, and he seems to not have a video before this one but after Russia left the island, so I cast doubt on his assertions that Ukraine has no airpower or air defense on the basis that the island should have been readily held had that be true. 

[rocketman]

Information on the RBS-15 anti-sea missile Sweden will supply to Ukraine. Pretty impressive (I might say in a slightly biased way):

 

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I don't believe this. Ukraine had one of the largest ground armies in Europe before the fight. I think the fighting toward Kiev was Russia's primary effort to negotiate the Dniepr defensive line. It was a gambit, they lost it. But what fool would seriously think Ukraine would capitulate after having years of combat experience on their own border. That's total nonsense. Years of war probably strengthened their discontempt of Russia and added to their will to fight.

Edit: Of course I remember the convoy but I think this was the typical logistics slog. That axis of advance was extremely narrow.

All of us are speculating here, don't forget.

Not sure where you’ve been the last 5 months but no we aren’t speculating. To us it seems ridiculous they would make that assumption. However all the facts on the ground support that reality. Russia fell for its own twisted delusions. The one item they weren’t delusional about was not being able to afford a lengthy war. Unfortunately they rolled snake eyes. 

[FancyCat]

24 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I don't believe this. Ukraine had one of the largest ground armies in Europe before the fight. I think the fighting toward Kiev was Russia's primary effort to negotiate the Dniepr defensive line. It was a gambit, they lost it. But what fool would seriously think Ukraine would capitulate after having years of combat experience on their own border. That's total nonsense. Years of war probably strengthened their discontempt of Russia and added to their will to fight.

Edit: Of course I remember the convoy but I think this was the typical logistics slog. That axis of advance was extremely narrow.

All of us are speculating here, don't forget.

The fact that Russia chose not to undertake a sustained air campaign to dilute Ukrainian military and communications before deploying the forces against Kiev along a narrow front lends a lot towards that the decision makers in the Kremlin did not expect serious resistance and a quick toppling of the Ukrainian military. Not to mention the leading units being essentially National Guard/Police, or that many units ran out of fuel....en route to Kiev. they ran out of fuel on a 100 mile trip. 

Statements from captured soldiers not expecting resistance, the fact the Kremlin chose to undertake a air landing without SEAD or quite simply ignoring the fact NATO ISR was watching and providing Ukrainians with information on the air landings dropzones. (if Russia considered the Ukrainian military dangerous, what happened to degrading their ability to operate? if Russia considered the UKR military to be a quick issue, then the disadvantages of all I've mentioned are outweighed by the need for quick Russian seizure before potential NATO intervention/reinforcement) 

[MikeyD]

I recall within days of the invasion the FSB leaked a statement saying basically 'its not our fault'. Whenever they did up an intel report on Ukraine forces and tried to pass it up the chain of command it would be intercepted and sent back with demands to fix the 'wrong' parts. The Kremlin had a narrative they were pursuing and were not going to let pesky facts get in the way.

Edited July 13, 2022 by MikeyD

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Not sure where you’ve been the last 5 months but no we aren’t speculating. To us it seems ridiculous they would make that assumption. However all the facts on the ground support that reality. Russia fell for its own twisted delusions. The one item they weren’t delusional about was not being able to afford a lengthy war. Unfortunately they rolled snake eyes. 

In reality seizing the capital is a just a propaganda win. Lines of supply and communication would be cut, but every military should be prepared for a situation like this. It was the first major city over the Dniepr. We have seen efforts toward these large population centers for one reason or another. Kiev was just a stepping stone to keep to advance moving. 

I could see the Russians not expecting the US to intercept intel about the Gostomel airport raid, and then the subsequent mechanized attack. Then again, it's impossible to stealthily set up an attack like this in the 21st century, so might as well pretend like your brigades are on manuevers. 

[Lethaface]

6 hours ago, hcrof said:

I think the only people who know how many rockets will take out a bridge have higher security clearance than we do. With the right software it is perfectly possible to model exactly what the effects of an explosion on any part of the bridge would be but most engineers don't do that as their day job!

Edit: for context, engineers would model very generic scenarios for accidental or deliberate damage to bridges but other than vehicle impacts you can't really predict an attack well enough to deliberately design for it.

Physics will deliver all that you are looking for.

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Artkin said:

In reality seizing the capital is a just a propaganda win. Lines of supply and communication would be cut, but every military should be prepared for a situation like this. It was the first major city over the Dniepr. We have seen efforts toward these large population centers for one reason or another. Kiev was just a stepping stone to keep to advance moving. 

Ok, so they pushed entire Eastern Military District + VDV on forlone hope mission to take 4 mln city (how?), then march blindly forward (where?) and expecting their LOC being severed anyway (which would make it futile anyway)? ... nope.

Most experts and serious analysts did not expected real war- even despite obvious signs- just because they could not believe Putin will do something such ridiculously blind and foolish with such forces.

It happened he did.

 

They are not only going to destroy UA government, Vierkhovna Rada, but go to Warsaw itself...

Of course its crude propaganda, but I am curious how many Russians still watch it. They do seem to show some new ammo depot strikes, so are aware of Russian setbacks.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, MikeyD said:

The Kremlin had a narrative they were pursuing and were not going to let pesky facts get in the way.

Pretty much this. Who in the world would tell their army that they're going to be slaughtered? As others have said, Russian propaganda is everywhere, so even if you try to find the truth youre still stuck reading more propaganda. 

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The fact that Russia chose not to undertake a sustained air campaign to dilute Ukrainian military and communications

But we saw a ton of cruise missiles launched during the first days of the war. I saw the total was close to 3000 by now. It's been about 140 days of fighting. 

These missiles have been targeting everything (Civilians too), but on the the first days of the war we heard about many UA S-300 systems getting hit. Those are fragile, we have seen videos of pkm's being able to cause their missiles to explode with 7.62. It's safe to assume if the S-300s were operating in batteries as intended then they probably suffered significant losses and damage. No need for risking pilots. Russia has definitely been documenting emplacements for a while, esecially considering theres been conflict on their border for the past 8 years. 

I don't know the extent of the cruise missile strikes, but they have been hitting priority targets. They definitely dont have ISR like the Nato powers do, but it seems apparent that they have done what they were able to

On the planes - Russia lost at least 6 aircraft the first day of fighting. Reported on this thread. They were out and operating. 

 

I think Russian commanders are just inexperienced and approached this differently than how the US would. I have always felt that the Russians had a certain pride about being different than us. Totally unlike China who will copy designs. 

Also, they clearly use PMCs, police, volunteers as shock troops. This happened in Kiev and it's still happening today. Wagner is apparently leading the fight wherever they go.

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so they pushed entire Eastern Military District + VDV on forlone hope mission to take 4 mln city (how?), then march blindly forward (where?) and expecting their LOC being severed anyway (which would make it futile anyway)? ... nope.

Most experts and serious analysts did not expected real war- even despite obvious signs- just because they could not believe Putin will do something such ridiculously blind and foolish with such forces.

It happened he did.

 

They are not only going to destroy UA government, Vierkhovna Rada, but go to Warsaw itself...

Of course its crude propaganda, but I am curious how many Russians still watch it. They do seem to show some new ammo depot strikes, so are aware of Russian setbacks.

Oh yeah, I saw that one today. They said they're going to do all those things if US supplies 300km ATACMS to UA. After that, I'm sure that US will do it - RU has nothing to threaten at this point, apart from trying to intensify (how?) what they are doing already. 

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Also, they clearly use PMCs, police, volunteers as shock troops. This happened in Kiev and it's still happening today. Wagner is apparently leading the fight wherever they go.

You do not deploy police as frontline units in military conflicts. You deploy police to beat down riots, or arresting targets. The fact that Ukraine got to ambush National Guard and Police units, and that the first unit into Kiev aside from PMCs attempting to assassinate the UKR government was a NG unit that got crushed.....these "shock troops" clearly didnt know what was gonna happen or prepped for it. At least the VDV got briefings, according to the BBC. 

[Artkin]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so they pushed entire Eastern Military District + VDV on forlone hope mission to take 4 mln city (how?), then march blindly forward (where?) and expecting their LOC being severed anyway (which would make it futile anyway)? ... nope.

I think the real surprise was the intel on the attack at Kiev. Wasn't it a shock to everyone when we heard troops were rolling through Chernobyl? 

They probably expected those troops to die, after being fatally poisoned with radiation. Just half joking. 

I wouldnt be surprised to hear that 40 mile long convoy was held up because the front of it was struck by artillery or aviation. They couldnt reliably take their supplies off road, so maybe they were stuck navigating ukraine with phones off, and gps equipment possibly limited. Not specifically that convoy, but perhaps in general. 

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

You do not deploy police as frontline units in military conflicts. You deploy police to beat down riots, or arresting targets. The fact that Ukraine got to ambush National Guard and Police units, and that the first unit into Kiev aside from PMCs attempting to assassinate the UKR government was a NG unit that got crushed.....these "shock troops" clearly didnt know what was gonna happen or prepped for it. At least the VDV got briefings, according to the BBC. 

If I have a truck of some fools in Combat Mission I will consider throwing them out in the open to be slaughtered to find out where my enemy's positions are. 

I have no doubts that regular Russian troops weren't briefed and it was left to higher commanders. 

[MikeyD]

Ah yes, that famous 40 mile long column poised, according to the TV pundits, like a coiled spring to strike at the heart of Kiev.

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Artkin said:

I think the real surprise was the intel on the attack at Kiev. Wasn't it a shock to everyone when we heard troops were rolling through Chernobyl? 

They probably expected those troops to die, after being fatally poisoned with radiation. Just half joking. 

I wouldnt be surprised to hear that 40 mile long convoy was held up because the front of it was struck by artillery or aviation. They couldnt reliably take their supplies off road, so maybe they were stuck navigating ukraine with phones off, and gps equipment possibly limited. Not specifically that convoy, but perhaps in general

NATO knew it for weeks, even public analysts like Koffman or Konrad Muzyka identified exact units, their probable strengths and axis of advance for days if not weeks before. There was absolutelly no sense in this Kyiv escapade, none- not from operational, nor strategic perspective .

Just like this entire war, by the way. All of this was effect of Putin isolation and his echo chamber that resonated with his own assumptions until they looked like reality. Even Kazakhstan intervention was just a giant cope cage to prove his cherished VDV can do what he expected from them.

No doubt whole war will pass into history as one of the most hubris-driven event in military history of the last several centuries. It's hard to find any logic or reasonable assumptions here; just one giant cluster**** (sorry for words, but scale of this pointless suffering here are just epic). Hell, even start of US involvment  in Vietnam looks reasonably well when compared to this.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

No doubt whole war will pass into history as one of the most hubris-driven event in military history of the last several centuries. It's hard to find any logic or reasonable assumptions here.

Yup. In words of Captain Blackadder: " War hasn't been fought this badly since Olaf the Hairy, High Chief of all the Vikings, accidentally ordered 80,000 battle helmets with the horns on the inside".

 

[SeinfeldRules]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR M777A2 are becoming Excalibur-ready

 

I personally doubt this is actually in Ukraine. The name on the barrel appears to be 1SG Conrad Schmidt, a Medal of Honor recipient from the 2nd Calvary Regiment. 2nd Cavalry Regiment is on of the the permanent Army units in Germany and their howitzers have been seen before in training videos for Ukrainian artillerymen. Other 2CR howitzers also have MoH winners painted on their tubes:

This howitzer being in Ukraine would imply that we took actively serving howitzers off one of the few active duty units we have permanently stationed in Europe and sent them straight over the border into Ukraine... when there seems to be plenty of stockpiled M777s from various unit closures that would probably would have sent first. I also highly doubt we would have done that without stripping them of our identifying marks. Some other oddities: the spades are upright and you absolutely can not fire the howitzer in that position and it takes several minutes to dig them in correctly. Also, the massive camo net setup is very much an American artillery TTP (and hopefully one that will die, as it's terribly ineffective when you have the barrel pointing out the front. Easy to operate under but in today's battlefield makes you MORE obvious to ISR).  Taking both into account, the howitzer is both not in position to fire and not in a position to displace quickly... which to me points that it's a training situation and not in a combat zone. 

[akd]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

another saltpeter warehouse is gone

Peter’s salt.

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by akd