How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

UKR police still a problem of Ukriane. Reform of police obviuously failed. Old corruption system, saved by Avakov and old Ministry of Internal Affairs officials, which avoid lustration or resumed their positions through corrupted courts showed own rotten fruits. 

In occupied towns of Luhansk oblast most of local police servicemen like and in 2014 betrayed Ukraine and brought the ouath to LPR. In theese days ceremonies pased in Svatove, Novoaydar, Troitske and other. Also to LPR poice joined many former polivemen, fired from police in 2014-2015 due to lustration or dismeiised by the own will, because didn't support "Maidan authorities". Though, most of new-employed since 2015 patrol and KORD policemen in eastern regions remained faithful to Ukrianinan oath and fought with Russians (like this was in Mariupol, though in neighbour Berdiank defected almost all police, including patrol). Most of traitors are detectives, investigators, district officers, clercks, police chiefs etc - most of them didn't change since 2014. Many of them still have either pro-Russian or "who cares which flag?" moods and this didn't concern SBU or poice inner security all theese years.

But not only Donbas police showed own pro-Russian expectations. In first days of invasion many police chiefs of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv oblasts either fled or claimed "neutrality" and adviced to citizens don't provoke Russians. Now they returned to own duties and claim they just "departed for orders receiving". 

But traitors must be on-alert... Several days ago in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson oblast defected 26-years old police officer, which betrayed Ukraine, provid active pro-Russian agitation and was appointed deputy chief of police was shot dead in own car by some of local resistance. Fast-paced carreer... but too short.   

Edited July 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Degsy]

"Inside the Ukrainian resistance"

"...Last week saw more mass “filtrations” ... in reality (it) means that occupying forces violently interrogated locals and then deported many to Russia. It’s a system designed for both simplicity and cruelty: cars and trucks and troops arrive in the villages, and then either take locals to a special “facility” or dig a large hole and stuff them in it. The goal is always the same: to turn them into collaborators...yet at the same time, the Russians also try to ingratiate themselves. Key to their efforts is the concept of what they call “swift justice”. The principle is simple: justice through the courts can take forever, so why not let them deliver it instead? Of course, it’s also a way of legitimising violence. Soldiers now accept “complaints” from locals and when they break into houses and administer more beatings, they can say they are merely responding to citizen requests."

The Russians still have some way to go understanding the whole 'Hearts and Minds' concept.

[Grigb]

Some more HIMARS pain, now from Girkin

Quote

Only yesterday it was discussed live that the enemy purposefully "takes out" our artillery depots, command posts and air defense positions. This morning - similarly to Donbass - a large ammunition depot in Chernobayevka near Kherson was destroyed. And if - speaking of Donbass - it was still possible to refer to the fact that these warehouses were created long before the start of the so-called "SMO", then in Chernobayevka the warehouse was created already during its course and in maximum proximity to the front. It is interesting to know: when will we hear about the military trial of at least one moron or conscious pest [sabouter] who is sporting a gold-embroidered general's cap-"shoigushka"? - It's about time…

 

[Huba]

Chornobayivka keeps exploding since early morning:

And some good news regarding Gepards. Nammo was contracted to manufacture the 35mm ammo:

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

20 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Machinegun-artillery regiment has two machinegun-artillery battalions, one mobile motor-rifle battalion on MT-LB, tank company of 9 tanks (T-72B in 2017), artillery battalion (18 2S5 or 6 2S5 and 12 2A36), AT-battery, SAM battalion (8 TOR-M2U), AA battalion (6 Strela-10, 6 Shilka, 27 MANPADs), MLRS battery (6 Grad)

had

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by akd

[FlammenwerferX]

18 hours ago, Boo Radley said:

Pfffft! I wave my hand at your thread. WE actually BROKE the forums with the MBT (Long May it Wave).

We were GIANTS among lesser mortals!

 

And don't you forget it, Sparky!

Jimmy Caan is gone but this fetid bag of meat gristle still walks among us...Disgraceful.

[Harmon Rabb]

Reminds me of all of those warnings Russia gave about Finland joining NATO.

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Never use Trukha channel as a sourse of reliable information. This is channel of hype, tracks of owners of wich reportedly lead to Kharkiv administration. Before a war this channel has poorly hidden pro-Russian moods. Now it often shows footage of damage instantly after missile strikes, despaite MoD prohibit to do this, it also throw-in unreliable information. There are no any articles in FT that USA decided to give ATACMS. There was only opinion of two senators, that US shoul give this weapon to Ukraine. But Trukha gives this as acomplished fact.

So, you can use this channel to watch some video, but almost never do not trust all what they write as resonant news

Noted, i will unfollow them. Thanks as always Haiduk for helping us figure out what is actually going on.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Tarkhan Khordaev, commander 3rd Tank Battalion, 80th Tank Regiment, 90th Guards Tank Division:

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Major Tarkhan Khordaev, commander 3rd Tank Battalion, 80th Tank Regiment, 90th Guards Tank Division:

 

According to Lostarmor talks, elements of 90th tank division participated in last days of Lysychansk offensive

[Taranis]

"A British FV-103 Spartan armored personnel carrier is unloaded, in the countryside near Bakhmout, eastern Ukraine, July 9, 2022. MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP"

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR police still a problem of Ukriane. Reform of police obviuously failed. Old corruption system, saved by Avakov and old Ministry of Internal Affairs officials, which avoid lustration or resumed their positions through corrupted courts showed own rotten fruits. 

In occupied towns of Luhansk oblast most of local police servicemen like and in 2014 betrayed Ukraine and brought the ouath to LPR. In theese days ceremonies pased in Svatove, Novoaydar, Troitske and other. Also to LPR poice joined many former polivemen, fired from police in 2014-2015 due to lustration or dismeiised by the own will, because didn't support "Maidan authorities". Though, most of new-employed since 2015 patrol and KORD policemen in eastern regions remained faithful to Ukrianinan oath and fought with Russians (like this was in Mariupol, though in neighbour Berdiank defected almost all police, including patrol). Most of traitors are detectives, investigators, district officers, clercks, police chiefs etc - most of them didn't change since 2014. Many of them still have either pro-Russian or "who cares which flag?" moods and this didn't concern SBU or poice inner security all theese years.

But not only Donbas police showed own pro-Russian expectations. In first days of invasion many police chiefs of Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv oblasts either fled or claimed "neutrality" and adviced to citizens don't provoke Russians. Now they returned to own duties and claim they just "departed for orders receiving". 

But traitors must be on-alert... Several days ago in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson oblast defected 26-years old police officer, which betrayed Ukraine, provid active pro-Russian agitation and was appointed deputy chief of police was shot dead in own car by some of local resistance. Fast-paced carreer... but too short.   

There will be an outstanding  chance to sort it out at the end of the war. And no shortage whatever of proven veterans who deserve the jobs

[akd]

Why we should ignore “news” from British tabloids (and other sources uncritically repeating such news):

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

Why we should ignore “news” from British tabloids (and other sources uncritically repeating such news):

 

So that means this wasn't the mass @The_Captwas referring to?

[Haiduk]

I hope, we will see continue soon

 

[Jammason]

18 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

His latest update.

 

Sobering evidence that Russia does not actually "suck at war". Yes, their losses have been great (they don't seem to care), but they are replenishing BTGs faster than UKR (see comparison in the clip). They're slowly taking/destroying the Donbas, which seems to represent the lion's share of Ukrainian GDP (80-90%). This will either become an RU prize or will be denied to Ukraine via destruction. Neither outcome bodes well for the blue and yellow economy.

I know it's not a popular opinion here, but I still see the outcome as a toss-up. Sanctions can be skirted, notably with the help of the two most populous countries in the world that benefit from cheap Russian hydrocarbons. Another Trump presidency is also not out of the question, which would likely result in significant sanction reductions--or worse.

As I noted earlier, the way to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO is for Russia to simply keep attacking them (NATO is unlikely to sign up for an automatic Article 5 trigger). This might just be a couple of missiles per week, an amount easily within the in-country production capabilities of the 6-12 different RU companies that make them; stockpile depletion need not factor in.

I see Russia's commitment here lasting at least as long as their efforts in Afghanistan, more probably as long as that of the US there. I doubt a changing of the guard at the Kremlin will change their resolve any more than the replacement of Boris Johnson will change that of the UK.

This is one of those situations where I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Jammason said:

Sobering evidence that Russia does not actually "suck at war". Yes, their losses have been great (they don't seem to care), but they are replenishing BTGs faster than UKR (see comparison in the clip). They're slowly taking/destroying the Donbas, which seems to represent the lion's share of Ukrainian GDP (80-90%). This will either become an RU prize or will be denied to Ukraine via destruction. Neither outcome bodes well for the blue and yellow economy.

I know it's not a popular opinion here, but I still see the outcome as a toss-up. Sanctions can be skirted, notably with the help of the two most populous countries in the world that benefit from cheap Russian hydrocarbons. Another Trump presidency is also not out of the question, which would likely result in significant sanction reductions--or worse.

As I noted earlier, the way to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO is for Russia to simply keep attacking them (NATO is unlikely to sign up for an automatic Article 5 trigger). This might just be a couple of missiles per week, an amount easily within the in-country production capabilities of the 6-12 different RU companies that make them; stockpile depletion need not factor in.

I see Russia's commitment here lasting at least as long as their efforts in Afghanistan, more probably as long as that of the US there. I doubt a changing of the guard at the Kremlin will change their resolve any more than the replacement of Boris Johnson will change that of the UK.

This is one of those situations where I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

I saw that yesterday, and from what I remember, he did not take few things into account when making the analysis:

- UA generating forces that are not sent into combat immediately

- sustainability of RU force generation

Broadly speaking, he talks about the operational level, and as far as I can tell does a great job, but does not tackle the strategic level in his analysis. 

And Russia maintaining the low intensity conflict, under the pressure of sanctions does not make sense. RU can't make that decision unilaterally too, UA will keep pushing, forcing RU to keep huge force along the line of contact, suffering losses from artillery etc. In the long run, material advantage of West is just crushing. 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Todays ammunition dumps hit (except Chornobaivka)

Donetsk metallurgical plant (DMZ), more likely artillery

Khartsyzk, Donetsk oblast. Ammunition dump

Stakhanov (Kadiivka) again - second or third time

Irminio, Luhansk oblast. No video, but locals wrote about all-night detonations. LPR "authorities" photo

[Artkin]

38 minutes ago, Jammason said:

Sobering evidence that Russia does not actually "suck at war"

Did we miss the part where there were 850 documented tank losses on Oryx?

Can you imagine if that happened to the US?

[Haiduk]

Abandoned T-62 was set fire by grenade from the drone. The tank with name FARN (ФАРН) belonged to volunteer battalion "Alania", formed in Northern Osetia. Battalion has T-62M/MV tanks.

 

Some about voluntert battalions, which now are establishing almost in each federal unit of Russia. If recently there were mostly infantry units with some exceptions like "Don" cossack battalion with BMP-2M (but unknown either full battalion set or just a company), that now, as write on LostArmor, many battalions establish like supernumary battalions of regular military units, deployed in different federal units. They wrote, for example, on Far East, on the base of 155th naval infantry brigade, the volunteer battalion was formed with tank company of T-80BV, which were taken from storages and this is as if will be usual structure now likely for mobilization methodic working out.

Next example - volunteer battalion is forming in Nizhniy Novgorod oblast

  

And on LostArmor tell this battalion also will have T-80BV, which are delivering by Il-76 from some distant storages

PS. Information about increasing the squads from 7 to 9 can be about theese volunteer units, which can havn't armored transport but just tank company. Then really instead gunner and driver squads can get two additional riflemens. The same thing was in UKR motorized infantry squads in 2015-2019, which unlike mechanized had only trucks, but had also additional rifleman and 30 men in platoon instead 27 in mech. Then, when motorized units got BRDM-2L their squads also became 7-men

Edited July 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Checked interview of RU nationalist expert Maxim Klimov (former RU Navy officer). He was supposed to talk about Mobilization, but they talked about many issues.

Below are notes of the useful bits

Quote

RU Navy

• Says that in official RU MOD video of Ballistic missile submarine (seems to be Borei) torpedo room it showed S-65 III torpedoes from 1972 year [implying not modified from that year] and UST-80K with mechanical entry for targeting data.
• Equipment Keramika (unified torpedo homing system used in UST-80K) was copied from US equipment of 60s.
• There was no Navy Air Defense firing training even after Moskva becoming submarine.
• The Navy accepts ships with criminal deficiencies (No audits, no or fake tests). 
• The Navy is trying to do something regarding torpedoes but seems not very successful.
• RU gov ordered new corvette program but radars are completely dependent on import (so no radars for them). But the engines are the worst problem. RU managed to localize gas turbines and reductors but not diesel engines. Kolomna factory makes maritime diesels, but their diesels have imported fuel management automatics/chips (so not diesels for corvettes - program is PR exercises destined for a failure).
• RU gov invest heavily in submarines but not in their support or surface ships. Mine Warfare Defense practically does not exists (except for parades). All while lot of money is spent on second parallel Naval Strategic Nuclear Force (Status 6 based on Poseidon)
   

RU Aviation

• RU SEAD is bad
• SEAD in UKR failed because RU aviation is subordinated to RU Army commanders who do not care.
• RU VKS organization is ancient.
• Mentioned UKR amphibious ship that escaped unharmed [probably Yuri Olefirenko escape] as a RU VKS failure - made no attempts to intercept it.
• Syrian experience looks like it is worse than useless. 

RU Counter Battery

• RU is not winning Counter-Battery battle
• RU has a high opinion of US CB radars supplied to UKR. Employs special operation to destroy them
• Claim USSR had difficulty making CB radar capable of detecting artillery shell (not mortar one). The majority were detecting explosions (splash) so were useful only for fire adjustment.
• Normal CB radar USSR managed to produce only just before collapsing (Zoopark 1 in RU, Zoopark 2 in UKR). However, according to real world experience it is considered a failure. 
• Says RU is technically capable of making modern CB radar but cannot make it due to organizational problems.
• Claim that UK Sea-Wolf system can engage and hit 114mm rounds (looks like 4.5-inch naval gun) [for RU is WOW]
• RU MOD has messy organization with disjoined departments and many steps in between. For example, while Artillery department is struggling with developing of CB radar, Anti-Aircraft Defense department has required radar technologies, but because it is different department so no luck. As result only discussion of the issue took two years. Meanwhile the US has spent this time training to destroy Air Defense targets with artillery.
• As an emergency measure to improve RU CB capabilities - radars of Tor and Pantsir need to be modified to work as CB radar [he explicitly stated that this is the only useful thing that can be done quickly]
• UKR arty strikes are really painful - engaged in dreaming about retaliatory strikes at UKR government buildings including homes UKR government officials.

RU Air Defense

• States that if RU AD will not make minor improvement (software, training) to enable targeting NATO artillery shells/rockets RU AD will not survive future battles.  NATO will detect RU AD emission and will hit it with arty. [Captain Obvious]
• RU AD can destroy Baraktars but only if it enters RU AD engagement zone. But UKR now having NATO SIGINT and overall picture keep it just outside of RU AD zone. Then Bayractar uses Canadian optics capable of seeing up to 50 km (depending on weather - in the begging of SMO UKR side had issues due to bad weather).
• Historical anecdote - during Vietnam war RU captured map from downed US pilot where whole USSR AD zone was marked to surprise of RU advisors.

RU Drones

• Shortage of Orlans were due to production disruption.  At some point some higher ups recognized Orlan popularity and potentially big production orders. So, they ordered all robot-like devices (Orlan is considered one) to include a special but not really needed part ("brick" or "candy").  Unsurprisingly the cost of "brick" was high.
• Other than that, issues with production of Orlans were only organizational. Manufacturing capabilities were adequate.
• Orion is expensive and cannot be massed produced.
• Orlan has good comms
• Interviewer told story about RU G1 drone. It was developed as a private venture. At the end RU MOD demanded to hand everything to them and leave. 
• UKR is a strong enemy that knows RU from inside [no comments]. They dissemble RU drones to block RU gray import schemes.
• Looks like RU unable to make a drone without some imported parts.
• Discussing that drones made from carbon-fiber-reinforced polymers have especially strong radar return so they are useless for serious military application. Looks like RU have issues with making drones from other materials (fiberglass) locally and must import some critical ingredients.

RU Military industrial Complex

• Unification is the problem. For example, in 2000-2010 missiles remote controls were unified иге after that every system had it’s own control equipment (for example unique server racks)
• Western sanctions badly hit RU military production - the resulting replacement of any part requires re-certification and testing of the entire weapon system. It is either expensive or takes too much time because testing is the subject of corrupt licensing (not much to choose from). 

RU Corruption

• Funny story - during testing of some targeting device [I could not hear the name, looks like hydroacoustic station or something] competitor cut the wires. Device continued to provide targeting data.
• Corruption is so big they are discussing sabotage
• Skipped various corruption stores with conspiracy theory (UKR spies)
• Discussing that entire RU gov system needs to be changed.  
• RU gov is trying to deal with corrupt officials.
• RU gov invested too much into useless but sacrosanct programs like Status 6 (even protecting them from sequestering) leaving important programs like drones unfinanced [corruption obviously]
• Funny - they realized that to fight corruption they need Glasnost (Openness - CW veterans should remember it) but they cannot admit it openly as it is RU Liberals concept

RU Mobilization

• Mentioned that some RU officers do not want to call mobilization but instead to force whole LDNR to fight this war.
• Current delay in calling mobilization will make mobilization to be as bad as LDNR scenario.
• Mentioned that unknown officials say mobilization is not possible as RU does not have additional "parts and components" [from context RU military does not have various low-level commanders/specialists]. Specifically, while they have enough middle officers there are not enough sergeants and lieutenants.
• RU front line strength is an issue because they use too many soldiers in the rear areas for various tasks. Suggests using RU private security firms to unload RU rear to them (transporting military goods, maintenance of military aircraft) 
• Now (June 14) RU has started to do something about the problem above. But it is just patchwork not a normal solution (Looks like they are accepting non-qualified personnel).
• Mentioned that despite having some issues with Gurkin he needed to admit it was Girkin who pushed critical issues into public discourse [Girkin is bad mouthing RU gov because it is the only way to force RU gov to solve issues].   
• Regarding arming of mobilized men (in case of Mobilization) there are issues.
• There are some weapons from USSR, but their state needs to be checked and repaired (implied generally it is not being done as of now - 14 of June)
• Modern Comms, drones, electrical batteries, thermal imagers are lacking but no work being done (too complicated issues to deal with)
• Discussing that peace is not possible (implying destruction of UKR)
• Neither RU Armed Forces nor Industrial Complex are ready for Mobilization
• Says that Military Industrial officials are living in a peace time mentality waiting to return to business as usual (no mobilization mentality).
• To speed up everything laws must be changed [Good luck with clown Duma]
• Opinion: RU gov will not make decision to mobilize unless pressed by RU public

[Harmon Rabb]

 Another weapon I'm sure many of us are looking forward to seeing in action.

From what I have read this photo was taken in the United Kingdom.

Edited July 9, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

PS. Information about increasing the squads from 7 to 9 can be about theese volunteer units, which can havn't armored transport but just tank company. Then really instead gunner and driver squads can get two additional riflemens. The same thing was in UKR motorized infantry squads in 2015-2019, which unlike mechanized had only trucks, but had also additional rifleman and 30 men in platoon instead 27 in mech. Then, when motorized units got BRDM-2L their squads also became 7-men

Thank you for the info.  I had guessed this was the situation.  Current squad size is 9 (2 + 7) because that's what fits into Soviet APC/IFV.  Increasing the DISMOUNT element to 9 is impossible if the vehicles are still in the mix, therefore I concluded they increased the DISMOUNT size for units without vehicles.  That keeps the size of the squad 9, but now it is 2+7 for units with vehicles and 0+9 for those without armored vehicles.

Steve

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Jammason said:

Sobering evidence that Russia does not actually "suck at war". Yes, their losses have been great (they don't seem to care), but they are replenishing BTGs faster than UKR (see comparison in the clip). They're slowly taking/destroying the Donbas, which seems to represent the lion's share of Ukrainian GDP (80-90%). This will either become an RU prize or will be denied to Ukraine via destruction. Neither outcome bodes well for the blue and yellow economy.

I know it's not a popular opinion here, but I still see the outcome as a toss-up. Sanctions can be skirted, notably with the help of the two most populous countries in the world that benefit from cheap Russian hydrocarbons. Another Trump presidency is also not out of the question, which would likely result in significant sanction reductions--or worse.

As I noted earlier, the way to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO is for Russia to simply keep attacking them (NATO is unlikely to sign up for an automatic Article 5 trigger). This might just be a couple of missiles per week, an amount easily within the in-country production capabilities of the 6-12 different RU companies that make them; stockpile depletion need not factor in.

I see Russia's commitment here lasting at least as long as their efforts in Afghanistan, more probably as long as that of the US there. I doubt a changing of the guard at the Kremlin will change their resolve any more than the replacement of Boris Johnson will change that of the UK.

This is one of those situations where I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

Everything said here is either wrong or an outright lie.

[FancyCat]

10 hours ago, Grigb said:

Ukranian friends might not agree with my assessment, but the thing is current LDNR public itself can influence nothing jsut like RU public (and does not want to like RU public because it is safer). However, it has two indirect impacts:

• First, LDNR civilian public are waking up from RU propaganda that RU state can protect them. RU likes to put military staff around civilians. So, any UKR strikes are really disruptive to civilian life. Also, currently RU looks like it cannot do anything about it. All together it is showing to locals that RU military is a paper tiger and betting on it is bad. That + losses make control over LDNR politically unfeasible. It is like the Snake Island scenario but with a bunch of displeased civilians - what is the point of holding it if you constantly take casualties and face locals who what you to leave them alone?
• Donetsk mobiks holding the south front are increasingly nervous. They are starting to ask questions about what they are doing here instead of going to Donets to help their families.  

 

Thank you again Grigb for your involvement in the thread, as well as Haiduk and others, your language skills and insights provide so much.

I assume the leadership of the republics has been purged sufficiently that any idea of a top down led attempt to bring the republics out of the war and spare further losses and damage is impossible?
This idea of using the republics population instead of Russia, speaks a lot to the infeasibility of seeking a peace without the expulsion of Russia from all of Ukraine. A peace where Russia can regroup, rearm, purge and turn the 2022 occupied territories into more bodies for Russia to use against Ukraine, to burn Ukraine into ash, is plainly unacceptable for Ukraine, and should made clear to all proponents of ceasefire, peace, and nonintervention in Ukraine.