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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Epic series. I grow up on it as well. Hope one day I will find the name of other Polish hit about intelligence officer with the cover name Klaus or something. 

Ask and you shall receive :)"Stawka większa niż życie" ( "Stakes higher than life"), starring Stanisław Mikulski as Hans Kloss. 

 

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2 hours ago, poesel said:

Small correction: it will be end of July. The teams are still in training. 
 

Does anyone know what’s up with the Roland rocket AA systems? They were retired in 2005 and should be still in storage. 
 

The VR support is a very German thing to do. The usual over-engineering. Love it. 😁

I like his comments. Clear and to the point. We also have men with a military background like that on dutch tv and their comments are in my opinion the only ones worth listening to.

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This is twitter of servicemen of 111th TDBR of Luhansk oblast. He writes the company of this brigade, armed only with light weapon 3,5 months held own positions in Pryvillia village NW from Lysychansk, repelling all probes of Russians to cross the river, but 30th of June Russian artillery made the hell on their positions with so quantity of fire as if they need to suprees whole division. They have been withdrawing two days to Siversk on foot under shellings, hiding from the shells from 10 minutes ip to 2 hours. Despite the heavy fire, their company could avoid big losses. 

111th TDBR considers as enough capable, because many of serviceman - either former ATO soldiers or active pro-Ukrainian citizens. 

 

Meanwhile Russian/LDPR forces already eneterd to Lysychansk, rear UKR screen units withdrawing from the city with some clashes. 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Just now, Huba said:

Ask and you shall receive :)"Stawka większa niż życie" ( "Stakes higher than life"), starring Stanisław Mikulski as Hans Kloss. 

 

Yes! Thank you! Among us simple RU kids this guy was much more popular than Stierlitz. Because unlike Stierlitz he was not screwing around but putting real pain to Evil Nazi!

Back to war. It looks like the Kremlin believes EU is tired of UKR - Dimon Mevedev ranted again. But I am putting it here because it has vibes of Dimon celebrating or threatening UKR with something bad (from Kremlin point of view) he knows is going to happen soon.

Quote

It seems that the stormy romance of Europeans with Ukrainians is coming to an end. They are no longer wanted, they are tired of them. The frenzied Poles remembered their rabid nationalism. They remind almost four million Ukrainians (who have settled in their country) with a shout the fact that they are in Poland now. Similar processes are going on in other European countries that had love games with Kiev. I see. That was what needed to be proved.
From Ukrainophilia to Ukrainophobia is one step. After all, the fading feelings cannot be rekindled by any promises of a future slow and unequal marriage (mythical accession to the EU).

But it would be nice for Ukrainians to remember about their former love for a green lad in a green T-shirt [Zelensky]. And for your own good, it's faster to break off this marriage forever…

I do not know what but given he has mentioned EU it could be some EU actions. Let's see.

 

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@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Andrey Melikhov, senior expert of VDV military-science commitee. Got lost 24th of June. Field research of VDV troops usage finished wrong %)

Probably already in list, but NecroMancer posted it not as continuing of previous post about this loss.

Lt.colnel Mikhail Rodionov, senior operative investigator of Vladimir oblast SOBR detachment. Got lost 3rd of March

 

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14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Yes! Thank you! Among us simple RU kids this guy was much more popular than Stierlitz. Because unlike Stierlitz he was not screwing around but putting real pain to Evil Nazi!

Back to war. It looks like the Kremlin believes EU is tired of UKR - Dimon Mevedev ranted again. But I am putting it here because it has vibes of Dimon celebrating or threatening UKR with something bad (from Kremlin point of view) he knows is going to happen soon.

I do not know what but given he has mentioned EU it could be some EU actions. Let's see.

 

Wishful thinking. Ukrainians are doing great all over the EU. So much more civilised than Russians.

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2nd battalion of Volunteer Ukrainain Corps "Right Sector" brings military oath. You can see TO&E and approx number of troops which more correspond to large company. 

Battalion has jeeps, pick-ups and mini-bus as transport - all vehicles bought for donates (VUC has large support of Ukarainan diaspora in USA and Canada). Also they use captured Russian Tigr-M and BTR-82A. Heavy infantry weapon represented by two 120 mm mortars and two HMGs (Brownings?)

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Should we consider that Ru is sending malcontent officers to the front in a penal battalion sort of way?

 

Nah, this is simply the most logical response to losing so many frontline officers.  Gotta get replacements somehow.  To replace a MAJ or LTC/COL you need about 5-10 years unless you promote a CPT prematurely (i.e. without the requisite training).  But Russia has lost so many LTs and CPTs that it's probably not easy to find replacements from the lower ranks.

Steve

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Officially claimed UKR troops forced Russians to withdaw from Ivanivka village in north of Kherson oblast, but no claiming that Ukrainian forces entered and hold the village.

Position of Russian "spearhead" on Kryvyi Rih axis in Vysokopillia got more worse. In the triangle Arkhangelske - Vysokopillia - Novovoznesenske is operating Russian 205th MRB (at least 2 BTGs on MTLBVM, but maybe and whole brigade in full composition) of 49th CAA of Southern military district and forces of 10th Spetsnaz brigade of Southern military district. Several days ago Russians moved here reinforcements - BTG of 34th MRB (mountain) of the same 49th CAA (also has MTLBVMK and MTLB-6V as combat transport).

 

Без-назви-1.jpg

Edited by Haiduk
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Tik tokers are wandering around Lysychansk, which means UA has probably fully withdrawn. I'm very curious about the details, but as RU is not bragging, the retreat had to be quite successful. 

And more good news for UA, plans for post-war reconstruction are already being made by the world's powerful:

 

Edited by Huba
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Uzbekistan is heating up. While it is not RU-UKR war, it is still what RU considers lebensraum RU Sphere of Influence. So, I am putting here the opinion of civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyanov). As usual it is RU moderate realist-nationalist take, grain of salt is required. But at least it might be a starting point to understand how it could or could not influence RU. 

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The President of Uzbekistan [Shavkat Mirziyoyev] introduces troops into Karakalpakstan, but at the same time decided not to amend its autonomous status in the constitution.

Apparently, what is happening has a purely internal origin. The usual story: the new leader is faced with the old guard, which felt great under the former leader and, of course, wants to maintain positions. It automatically puts the new leader to the choice - to become a puppet of the previous groups or to push them and start building new balances with new peoples.

Under Karimov [previous president], the so-called siloviki actually ruled the country. Now Mirziyoyev faces an obvious task - cleaning the power structures and bringing the old guard to submission.

Apparently, the current events were a crisis initiated by the siloviki, and now Mirziyoyev is trying to resolve it. If possible, without blood, since the events in Andijan in 2005 remain in everybody memory.

 

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One thing that's struck me about the fighting in Donbas is that most of the more experienced Ukrainian units don't seem to  be there (or if they are there they've been a well kept secret).

Units like 1 OTBr, 14 OMBr, 28 OMBr, 30 MBr, etc. are some of the more experienced units and they are not in Donbas AFAIK. Only 24 OMBr and 17 OTBr are in Donbas.

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5 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

One thing that's struck me about the fighting in Donbas is that most of the more experienced Ukrainian units don't seem to  be there (or if they are there they've been a well kept secret).

Units like 1 OTBr, 14 OMBr, 28 OMBr, 30 MBr, etc. are some of the more experienced units and they are not in Donbas AFAIK. Only 24 OMBr and 17 OTBr are in Donbas.

30th brigade is on Donbas,  Horlivka - Novoluhanske sector. 

10th mountain-assault brigade and 24th mech.brigade probably defends southern positions of Lysychansk.

Edited by Haiduk
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Some about UKR losses: this article says 130th TDB of 112th Kyiv TDBR, operating in Kharkiv oblast lost for last week 18 servicemen KIA, including company commander. Some guys from our reenectment clubs enlisted in this brigade and some in this battalion.

8363f-clip-102kb.jpg

https://www.newsroom.kh.ua/ukraine/v-tyazhelyh-boyah-v-harkovskoy-oblasti-pogibli-18-boycov-kievskoy-teroborony

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Girking confirms that Pushilin decree to control "humanitarian" goods most likely has the goal to decrease effectiveness of fighting aka hardcore LDNR units.

Quote

Moreover, based on the text, it would be good to add the following:

"...additionally, the goal is preventing an increase in the combat effectiveness NM DNR of units, conducting military operations against respected Kiev partners ... etc.".

 

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6 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's unfortunate that Ukraine was not able to hold the defences along the natural barrier of the Siversky Donets, but I suppose the Russians managing to capture Popasna made it much more difficult to hold along there.

The salients geometry just let the Russians shell it from too many angles at once. Happily it was really the only place on the entire front with that unfortunate geometry. Straighter lines and HIMARS working day and night should bring the Russians to a dead stop.

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1 minute ago, dan/california said:

The salients geometry just let the Russians shell it from too many angles at once. Happily it was really the only place on the entire front with that unfortunate geometry. Straighter lines and HIMARS working day and night should bring the Russians to a dead stop.

So I was thinking a little about the geography of the new UA/ RU frontline. Altough Ukrainians left the Donets line, I think it's presence still works very much to UA advantage at this point. I think it's a safe bet the UA, who now has numerous 155mm L52 guns and GMLRS on top of that, won't allow Russians to establish any permanent crossings across the Donets in the whole Lysychansk region. All the RU forces west of  Lysychansk will have to be supplied through Popasna or Toshivka, making the GLOCs very concentrated and easier to interdict. What's more, whole this area is in range of UA tube artillery, while Russian artillery concentration around Severodonetsk is now out of range and will have to be broken and moved to new positions, either in the region of Lyman, or through the Popasna/ Toshkivka. For sure achieving an artillery  concentration similar to one in Severodonetsk against the new UA positions on the Bakhmut - Seversk line will be A LOT harder.

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Some results of rare Russian SEAD - 17th of June Russian missile (unknown SA or AS) hit the combat control vehicle 5K56S of SAM battalion of 160th SAM brigade (dislocation - Odesa, S-300PS), being deployed near Tereshkivka village, 25 km west from Sumy. 

Inside vehicle were killed battalion comamnder lt.colonel Serhiy Mizin and chief of the staff, battalion commander deputy captain Oleksiy Hubin.

5K56S for illustration

Miso on Twitter: "@pir34 @VrffMax or 5K56S https://t.co/nuzwMHPSB9" /  Twitter

 

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14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some results of rare Russian SEAD - 17th of June Russian missile (unknown SA or AS) hit the combat control vehicle 5K56S of SAM battalion of 160th SAM brigade (dislocation - Odesa, S-300PS), being deployed near Tereshkivka village, 25 km west from Sumy. 

Inside vehicle were killed battalion comamnder lt.colonel Serhiy Mizin and chief of the staff, battalion commander deputy captain Oleksiy Hubin.

5K56S for illustration

Miso on Twitter: "@pir34 @VrffMax or 5K56S https://t.co/nuzwMHPSB9" /  Twitter

 

Unit that did that needs HIMAR's attention. We don't need an outbreak of brighter orcs.

Edited by dan/california
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9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Unit that did that needs HIMAR's attention. We don't need an outbreak of brighter orcs.

US administration was against that HIMARS hit targets on Russian territory, though, we can say "Russians just smoked in unappropriate place". But if this was Iskander, we can't reach it with 84km-missiles

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

2nd battalion of Volunteer Ukrainain Corps "Right Sector" brings military oath. You can see TO&E and approx number of troops which more correspond to large company. 

Battalion has jeeps, pick-ups and mini-bus as transport - all vehicles bought for donates (VUC has large support of Ukarainan diaspora in USA and Canada). Also they use captured Russian Tigr-M and BTR-82A. Heavy infantry weapon represented by two 120 mm mortars and two HMGs (Brownings?)

Зображення

Yes it's .50cal M2 Browning. Tripods, round pods and rail for horizontal shooting adjustment are characteristic :)

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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor Andrey Melikhov, senior expert of VDV military-science commitee. Got lost 24th of June. Field research of VDV troops usage finished wrong %)

Probably already in list, but NecroMancer posted it not as continuing of previous post about this loss.

Lt.colnel Mikhail Rodionov, senior operative investigator of Vladimir oblast SOBR detachment. Got lost 3rd of March

 

Got the Major yesterday.  The Lt Col we only had listed as likely a lt col in SOBR

Edited by sburke
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