How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

New video from Perun addressing some of the fake news and also general situation.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I think truth is more mundane and simpler- Putin needs Belarus but simply have no valid replacement for Lukaschenka right now. He hates him personally (many experts on region underline this; btw the same was with Yanukovych) but possible successor puppet may be more fickle, lacking support of society (again-remember Yanukovych) and would need to be kept in power by Russian military directly. Outside coups are always risky business, as ultimately power may slip into hands of somebody we did not wanted. Putin lacks resources for that. So he will need to endure Lukashenko's rants and keep finding more and more bags of potatoes in his sleeping room as a gift of friendly nation. Sometimes life of a Czar can be unbearble...

This is a good summary.  Since the start of the war it's been pretty clear that Putin wanted Belarus to be more militarily active once it became clear that Russia's warplan failed to take into account Ukraine defending effectively.  Even a weak, in effectual attack along the border in western Ukraine would have siphoned off Ukrainian resources from defending the east.  But it didn't happen.

We know that Putin thinks of Belarus as a part of Russia and therefore doesn't think there's any reason to shield the country or its peoples from the consequences of the war.  We also know that Russia has plenty of military and security forces in Belarus to put pressure on Lukashenko, including direct take over or fake coup, into doing what Russia wants.  Yet Belarus has not done anything more than lob rhetoric bombs over the border.

Putin is also very much in "short term thinking mode", which means it is doubtful he is holding back on strong arming Belarus out of concern for long term ramifications.

When we look at the evidence logically we can see that Putin has both the motivation and the capability to push Belarus into military action against Ukraine or even Lithuania.  Yet he is not.  Why?  Because Putin seems to view doing that as being detrimental to Russia in the short term. 

The most likely scenario he fears is a collapse of Lukashenko's government like 2014 Ukraine.  In the short term the best case is a major distraction for Russia's war efforts and a PR nightmare.  Worst case is all of that AND it becomes another Ukraine where the population is decidedly anti-Russian and willing to fight against Russian aggression.

Keeping Lukashenko in power is a far better option.  More predictability in the short term, no major distraction for the war effort, no PR nightmare, no increase chance of NATO intervention (Lithuania attack definitely would do that), etc.

So, Lukashenko stays for now because Putin thinks he is the least worst of his options.  I doubt the equation will change.

Steve

[kraze]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even a weak, in effectual attack along the border in western Ukraine would have siphoned off Ukrainian resources from defending the east.  But it didn't happen.

It did happen, they were going to Kyiv with russians, but when the first shots started flying - Belarusian army turned tail and ran away. They didn't expect a shooting war, just a safe ride to Kyiv (like wha-?). Apparently Lukashenko himself didn't expect it will be so serious, as he himself stated at one point that the war will last hours. They did treat us as just being there for the taking.

But very small amounts of belarusian soldiers did remain and took part in committing war crimes near Kyiv.

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze

[Combatintman]

5 hours ago, kraze said:

Russians occupied Crimea, proclaimed it's their territory and put nukes in there. Same can be done with whole Belarus no problemo. Belarusian army is in a horrible state, it's almost fully conscript, was purposefully decayed and robbed since USSR (much like it was in Ukraine until 2014, which resulted in Crimea grab and the war) and didn't have the relative luxury of having 8 years to be rebuilt, while learning how to fight russians.

So if putin suddenly decided "Belarus is mine now" - Belarusian army will crumble fast (especially with highly pro-russian leadership and infiltration) - and he can then put nukes in there too.

I mean technically nukes were put onto a territory of Ukraine, no matter how you spin it - and who knows, who knows - what if one of these days that bridge suddenly goes down, ships will get to meet Neptune with harpoons - and there will be no other way to evacuate those nukes.

I'm not spinning anything - try reading the treaty first ...

INFCIRC/140 - Treat on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (iaea.org)

As is clear from the treaty, the point you're making regarding Belarus is invalid.

[FancyCat]

Found on this site. While I wouldn't doubt Russia placing military assets on them, considering all the energy production assets Russia has damaged in Ukraine, I doubt anyone in Ukraine is upset about damaging and impacting Russian oil and gas production in the Black Sea.

Edited June 26, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

 

[FancyCat]

8 hours ago, Combatintman said:

I would say that supplying nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely - it contravenes various nuclear proliferation treaties/conventions which I doubt Russia would contemplate given all of the other sanctions it is already under.  This is more of the same in terms of fairly empty threats to exert pressure in the Baltic.

While it remains to be seen if it does occur, Belarus is led by a clown, this might be a feeling attempt by Russia to start the process of moving nuclear weapons to Belarus, as part of a overarching push to integrate Belarus into Russia, either directly, or to make it impossible for another color revolution to occur where Russian forces cannot intervene directly and crush it.

I expect diplomats to start ringing alarm bells.

But kraze makes a point, Russia at the start of the conflict announced war on Ukraine and began lobbing missiles during the middle of a UN Security Council meeting, as diplomats urged Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, Russia was firing missiles and invading. I find it hard to believe that the U.S or any other nation would snub the UN so forthright in such a manner.

Enforcement of the NPT via a UN framework would fail due to Russia being on the UN Security Council. Not to mention Russia's control of grain, oil and gas gives powerful incentives for many states not to take harsher positions sanctions wise. In effect, if Russia really does decide to give nuclear weapons to Belarus (tho it's probably more like station under lock and key of Russian control), I don't think there's much to threaten Russia with.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a good summary.  Since the start of the war it's been pretty clear that Putin wanted Belarus to be more militarily active once it became clear that Russia's warplan failed to take into account Ukraine defending effectively.  Even a weak, in effectual attack along the border in western Ukraine would have siphoned off Ukrainian resources from defending the east.  But it didn't happen.

We know that Putin thinks of Belarus as a part of Russia and therefore doesn't think there's any reason to shield the country or its peoples from the consequences of the war.  We also know that Russia has plenty of military and security forces in Belarus to put pressure on Lukashenko, including direct take over or fake coup, into doing what Russia wants.  Yet Belarus has not done anything more than lob rhetoric bombs over the border.

Putin is also very much in "short term thinking mode", which means it is doubtful he is holding back on strong arming Belarus out of concern for long term ramifications.

When we look at the evidence logically we can see that Putin has both the motivation and the capability to push Belarus into military action against Ukraine or even Lithuania.  Yet he is not.  Why?  Because Putin seems to view doing that as being detrimental to Russia in the short term. 

The most likely scenario he fears is a collapse of Lukashenko's government like 2014 Ukraine.  In the short term the best case is a major distraction for Russia's war efforts and a PR nightmare.  Worst case is all of that AND it becomes another Ukraine where the population is decidedly anti-Russian and willing to fight against Russian aggression.

Keeping Lukashenko in power is a far better option.  More predictability in the short term, no major distraction for the war effort, no PR nightmare, no increase chance of NATO intervention (Lithuania attack definitely would do that), etc.

So, Lukashenko stays for now because Putin thinks he is the least worst of his options.  I doubt the equation will change.

Steve

I feel the same except I believe best case is not applicable anymore. We need to keep in mind that even during happier times even Luka supporters viewed RU as sort of necessary evil due to RU rampant corruption. They do not want RU to be in full control of Belarus. So, if something happens to Luka worst case scenario is more likely.

[YouWillOwnNothing]

On 6/18/2022 at 4:53 PM, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so you're now getting an official warning.  If you want to participate in the discussions and follow the Forum rules for behavior, you can stay.  If you're going to stick with your current strategy of trying to drop "truth bombs" and run away, then you'll lose your ability to post.

Your choice.

Steve

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

Edited June 26, 2022 by YouWillOwnNothing

[Grigb]

Regarding Nukes we need to keep in mind that Crimea is territory under temporary RU control. So, nukes there are under full RU control. Giving Nuke to Luka means losing control over them. RU is obsessed with control over everything. What if Luka launches them toward NATO countries? Conflict with NATO is the least thing RU wants right now.  Remember WW2 - it was Japan that finally brought US to war against Germany. it is not something RU wants to repeat.  

So, there must be a serious benefit for RU. But I do not see any.

Crimea nukes are a deterrent against UKR/NATO invasion. Against what nukes in Belarus will be deterrent? Against Invasion of Belarus? Well, RU wants somebody to invade Belarus to push it closer to RU and start fighting finally.

On other hand Luka is facing the situation of RU not defeating Ukraine. That's makes Belarus a prime UKR target after the war. And he must expect that RU being in poor state might not come to his help. Luka needs nukes to survive after the war. That's why I believe it is him who pushes for the nukes in Belarus. Meanwhile Putin does not give him much because it just does not benefit RU at all.

[Desertor]

5 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

Say goodbye to your mom...

[Letter from Prague]

17 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

This is such a good example of psychological projection that you get points for comedy value.

Hyped up loser? Remind me who was supposed to be second strongest army in the world, and is now second strongest army in Ukraine? When you lose your job of online troll and get sent to war to die, be sure to tell your wife to bring her boyfriend to your funeral, okay?

EDIT: I know I shouldn't feed the troll, sorry, couldn't resist.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[YouWillOwnNothing]

I wonder how many here have ever heard about Mackinder-theory?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt. Col. Oleksandr Kuvshinov, 336th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade:

Major Ravil Gattarov, probably Su-34 pilot:

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by akd

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Hello, comrade. When do you stop lying? Nobody is discussing Ghost of Kiev here. Just like nobody discusses stories of your RU Master about destroying UKR army several times over. 

15 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

Comrade, your RU masters talking points are dumb. Do you want to discuss your Nazi forces quote below? 

That reminder about killing UKR civilians if they became witnesses of RU atrocities?

[YouWillOwnNothing]

Pay attention, to the timestamps:

RIA Novosti, [24.06.2022 13:14]

Blinken said that the G7 summit (June 26-27) will discuss the consequences of Russia's actions in Ukraine, the possibility of a diplomatic solution

 

 

RIA Novosti, [24.06.2022 17:47]

️Blinken: US is ready to support any possible diplomatic solutions to the conflict in Ukraine

 

 

RIA Novosti, [25.06.2022 10:42]

The crisis in Ukraine is likely to be resolved at the negotiating table, said NATO Secretary General

 

 

RIA Novosti, [26.06.2022 14:53]

The United States and Germany are unanimous in their opinion on the need to achieve a diplomatic settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, the White House said following the talks between Biden and Scholz

 

 

See how Boris Churchill tries to push London's Golem, to resurrect Mackinder, which was killed on Feb. 24th 2022 by Vlad?

 

[Harmon Rabb]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

This is such a good example of psychological projection that you get points for comedy value.

Hyped up loser? Remind me who was supposed to be second strongest army in the world, and is now second strongest army in Ukraine? When you lose your job of online troll and get sent to war to die, be sure to tell your wife to bring her boyfriend to your funeral, okay?

I strongly suspect that soon YouWillOwnNothing won't even own a Battlefront forum account if he keeps behaving this way.

[billbindc]

31 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

Strong incel energy here.

Probus is right. Don't feed the trolls.

Edited June 26, 2022 by billbindc

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

I wonder how many here have ever heard about Mackinder-theory?

I wonder, comrade, how many of your comrades ever hear about RU Kozicin torture and execution conveyor for Ukrainians? 

[Probus]

- Don't feed the trolls -

@BFCElvis

Edited June 26, 2022 by Probus

[Cederic]

18 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, sheer brutallity and lack of manners on Ukrainian side this time...

Old sniper tactic. Shoot them when they're out of the trench taking a ****.

People stop leaving the trench..

[Splinty]

1 hour ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

And what if I'm not dumb enough to believe in Ghost of Kiev stories?

Well, the Ukraine is the Hillary Clinton of countries. It’s a very uncool, hyped-up loser that commits atrocities, and the dumb masses of women and faggy men continue to support it despite the fact it is totally, obviously doomed.

@Elvis. I  think this guy needs some attention.

[Grigb]

New assessment from Murz. I think he shows what @The_Capt already explained.

Quote

I fully share the general enthusiasm on the topic of the elimination of the Zolotoe-Gorsko boiler, but you just have to understand that most of the UKR from there managed to bail. Yes, throwing everything that prevented them from escaping, but they, for the most part, bailed out. Of course, everything abandoned will be very useful to us, but they will be resupplied with more. And, as Strelkov quite correctly noted in his commentary to the video from the "T-junction" area and the place behind the Zolotoe [that battle where UKR light infantry platoon escaped to fight another day], they will still fight against us.

Another sad point is that the bulk of our "military analysts" are completely unfamiliar with the subject of "military topography", so they do not try to match outline of the front and the arrows of strikes with such a dull and banal thing as a full-fledged map of the combat area [with elevation contours]. Attention to the screen.

Everyone can clearly see the topography of the bed of the river-pereplyuika [he means very small river] called "Belenkaya"? The river itself is bull****. But here is what I can explain about this Volcheyarovka [nearby village] on it.

Widely known in narrow circles [narrow circles mean RU milhisotry community] Pointe du Hoc - 30 meters, and here about 40.

Watch the map carefully. Lisichansk has quite a convenient flanking line of defense along the heights behind Belenka, which the enemy will definitely try to occupy and maximize the benefits of the terrain to their advantage. The boundary along the Belenkoe is completely connected with outskirts of Seversk  along the Sykhoi Plotva [river] boundary. But, there, to the left of the Lisichansk oil Refinery, many ["military analysts" mentioned above] draw decisive red arrows like "about tomorrow- the day after tomorrow we will cut it off", there is this.

And behind all this, not only trucks supplying the Lysychansk group, but also artillery, which will be able to "serve" both attackers from this side and attempts to force the Seversky Donets to the rear of this line of defense. Arty will ride along the well-rolled lanes along the landings. And it will take a lot of "Orlans" with night thermals for  this corridor to become an expensive way of death instead of inexpensive way of life at night. Although yes, it's summer outside and the nights are relatively short.

There are undoubtedly reasons for cautious optimism, but, I repeat, the repeated repetition of the phrase "operational isolation" of will not add soldiers to our battalions and the topography of the area will not change. The Lisichansky cauldron can still drink a lot of blood.

 

[danfrodo]

Whilst upon my trusty nordic trak steed today, I watch this most excellent video on how US artillery works, using M777 as example.  Very informative for me and probably for others civvies and non-arty folks.  So that's what 'splash' means, I never did understand that in CMBS. 

 

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

New assessment from Murz. I think he shows what @The_Capt already explained.

 

BTW as you can see Orlan drones are critical for RU CB capabilities. Screen of LMM post with few roaming HVM stormers will ruin RU day (well, night actually)