How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Is is possible to make tochka-u missiles artisanally? They are pretty crude tech and it might be possible to use a 3d printer and a couple of raspberry pi computers to make an Ersatz Version?

No. All what we are launcing now either Soviet time stocks or maybe alraedy foreign aid - Poland and Czech Republic are fromer operators of Tochka-U. 

Wiki says estimated number of missiles for Tochka-U in Ukraine is 500-800. During the war 2014-2015 there were at least 50 launches. But there is a question how much theese missiles in good conditions. Part of them were older 9M79 missiles with 70 km of range.  

Edited June 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. All what we are launcing now either Soviet time stocks or maybe alraedy foreign aid.

I wonder though how big can kamikaze drone production get, give enough time and resources are poured into it. I'm thinking of something like the one used today in attack on the refinery - simple, cheap craft for attacking stationary targets. Can be GPS guided without any optics or comms onboard, "poor man's cruise missile" basically. I'm sure there is more viable targets for those than can be manufactured.

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. All what we are launcing now either Soviet time stocks or maybe alraedy foreign aid - Poland and Czech Republic are fromer operators of Tochka-U. 

Unfortunately we scrapped all our Tochkas ages ago, AFAIR we only had like 4 launchers with several missiles. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Grigb said:

Good!

Murz rant is interesting because while it is captain obvious description it is coming from enemy mouth. BTW pay attention to what he want to say about RU AA level of competency.

Murz claimed this was Bayraktar in the role of kamikadze, but indeed this was UKR designed drone Raybird-3 of Skaeton company for civil purposes (in military use has name ACS-3). This is good toy, which can fly 18-28 hours on the range up to 240 km with control of operator or about 1000 km by programmed route. Since 2016 ACS-3 has limited usage in Ukrainain Armed Forces (though, I never heard and never seen nothing about it during 2016-2021). UAV can carry 5 kg of payload.

 

[Haiduk]

Fourth strike on Nova Kakhovka

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Several sources now claim that. 

 

I expected Ukraine would move its forces out of there instead of letting them get crushed.  It's no Mariupol or Severodonetsk, so they were doomed once their LOC was cut.  I'm glad they seem to have gotten them out, hopefully in good order.

As for all the deep strikes on strategic munition storage centers... congrats to the Intel teams that have compiled all the targeting information!  Can't target what you don't know about.

Russia is kinda screwed now.  It really needs to put these sorts of massive depots close to the front for purely technical reasons.  But it seems Ukraine will find out about them and blow them up.  Which means they are going to have to move them back from the front, which complicates and slows deliveries.

The existing dumps that are within Ukraine's range are now in grave danger.  Russia can't possibly relocate them all at the same time and will take them days, if not weeks, to do so because that's how long it took to get them established.  Hopefully Ukraine's target list has these places all nicely identified.

Steve

[Haiduk]

"Toyota wars"

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

If someone sent longer range rockets, like tochka (sp?), I suspect that country(s) might want quiet.  But UKR is suddenly hitting deeper targets much more often it seems.

Its getting normalized, oil refinery in Rostov just got hit: 

 

Obviously, not the big strikes with aircraft or missiles like earlier, but more smaller actions, more numerous, will both dampen Russian outrage, worldwide alarm, and make it easier for Ukraine to hit targets with Western equipment, if its merely a single strike in a long line of cross-border strikes.

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Add to that, pressure from the biggest opposition party (CDU) which has historically been the most pro-military party. Scholz has to cater to the peace activist part of his party.
Quite  a turnaround for Germany. It's like if Biden would declare that the US is going metric from next Monday on.

And everyone else, including the Greens themselves.

Well CDU was just in power with Merkel, who of course has her own hand in the German-Russian relationship, so I'm not sure if Russia's influence isn't strong enough to steer aid away from Ukraine quietly and since its the opposition well i dunno if they have the government influence to stop things out of power, but the comments by a coalition partner, who controls the Foreign Ministry and Economic Affairs, i like it a lot. Lots of ground for play against SPD, and encouraging for ensuring that Russian influence inside the two major parties is lessened vs loss of ground politically. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by FancyCat

[Harmon Rabb]

Neat story, I'm sure Mykhailo would make a fine warrior in any era.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Suleyman]

I got a toyota too can the UKR help me install those self defense features too? 

[MOS:96B2P]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

DeSantis isn't going to like it

Why not?  Sounds like a good idea.  Has he opposed the idea in some way?

 

[Sojourner]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting idea.

Nah, not much more than virtue signaling, they can pretend to support Ukraine at the same time as pretending to be doing something about gun crime. Gun buy-backs in the U.S. don't accomplish much - mostly they get great-grandad's rusty old rifle and other non-functional stuff, occasionally they get blocks of wood that look like guns. Once in a while they get a nice collector piece. At best  a buy-back only brings in on the order of 100-200 weapons, probably no more than 20% of that would be of any use to Ukraine.

[JonS]

44 minutes ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Why not?  Sounds like a good idea.  Has he opposed the idea in some way?

 

Sure, it's a good-ish idea (although I'm not sure how thrilled UKR will be to receive a random consignment of random weapons of random age and wear, with no ammunition or spares). But DeSantis is ... not exactly favourable to the concept of reducing private firearms ownership.

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, JonS said:

Sure, it's a good-ish idea (although I'm not sure how thrilled UKR will be to receive a random consignment of random weapons of random age and wear, with no ammunition or spares). But DeSantis is ... not exactly favourable to the concept of reducing private firearms ownership.

Personally I'm all for private firearms ownership and I own more than a few firearms myself. But hey, if someone wants to voluntarily hand over firearms that would be given to the Ukrainian military during a time of need I'm all for it.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

"Toyota wars"

 

Whistlindiesel (A youtuber) already showed us the Toyota Hilux is one of the toughest pickups you can buy. I cant speak for the new ones but I expect the same. 

[Beleg85]

Probably many already know this channel, if not it is worth to check- as lately they finally get profesionally translated english captions. Ukrainian journalist Vlodymyr Zolkin makes interviews with POW's from Russian army. Good source to know the mental state of those people. They don't seem to fake a lot, their stories are believable and generally confirms sorry state of whole military.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwWArPXqGLslRWaP-zKYiXg/videos

Also small cameo from Dmtri (not embedded, click the link). Soldier complains about Western MD being shot to pieces- of course he exagarates, but worth to note anyway:

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1539618506576207874

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Sure, it's a good-ish idea (although I'm not sure how thrilled UKR will be to receive a random consignment of random weapons of random age and wear, with no ammunition or spares). But DeSantis is ... not exactly favourable to the concept of reducing private firearms ownership.

And this has nothing to do with anything relevant to this thread, so let's not get into it.

Steve

[paxromana]

10 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

This is a bit off topic, but since there's so much focus on the CAESARs now...

Was there any truck-mounted artillery in WW2? If no, why not?

Seems like a pretty obvious idea, but I've only ever seen WW2 rocket launchers mounted on truck chassis.

THere were Portee (i.e. truck carried but not necessarily fired from) AT guns (2 pdrs at least) used in the Western Desert Campaign (at least) there was alkso the Deacon which was a 6pdr mounted on/fired from a truck which was only used in the Western Desert 42-43, the Italians alos had Truck mounted/fired artillery (75mm I presume)... and, of course, there was the Halftrack mounted 75mm and 88mm guns the Germans used and the various allied halftrack mounted guns.

[CAZmaj]

6 hours ago, Cederic said:

I firmly disagree. In that situation triple Vickers and a Browning .50 cal was, is and always will be the best solution.

https://photos.stua.rts.co.tt/Holiday-pics/War-Tour/i-XW9jTGL/A

 

Hmm...SAS in Jeeps? I thought they used Land Rovers?

[gnarly]

4 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Hmm...SAS in Jeeps? I thought they used Land Rovers?

https://silodrome.com/ford-gpw/#:~:text=The SAS made use of,by a Browning machine gun.

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Hmm...SAS in Jeeps? I thought they used Land Rovers?

and totally off subject.... rebuilt vintage Land Rovers

https://www.bishoprook.com/

Back on subject:  Has anyone noticed that the FIRMS data seems to generally show more fires/artillery strikes on the russian sides of the lines?  Locally the russians will unleash but it seems they are not outgunning UKR. 

And meanwhile here we are in mid-june, wondering when/if Ukraine can mount a significant enough offensive(s) to cause local collapse and force RU to pull forces out of Izyum/Popasne/Lysychansk. 

And now Scholz is sounding like Biden -- I like this a lot!  I hope the actions match the words.  Will Macron's poor showing the parliamentary election mean he is now less able to support Ukraine -- anyone know? 

So despite some small but painful setbacks, I suppose overall things are still trending in Ukraine's direction. 

 

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So despite some small but painful setbacks, I suppose overall things are still trending in Ukraine's direction. 

I wouldn't necessarily say they are painful setbacks.  A Russian advance is not a setback in the sense that it is expected.  The issue is the cost of that advance and it's strategic or even operational relevance.  This push by Russia has none of the above other than cost.  While we'd all love Ukraine to be hammering the Russians and advancing that isn't the current strategic situation.  Patience

[LukeFF]

8 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting idea.

It's a dumb idea bound to fail, both because these so-called buyback programs usually net just old crap that nobody wants any more, and there's no way for Miami to actually transfer them to Ukraine. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by LukeFF

[LukeFF]

8 hours ago, JonS said:

DeSantis isn't going to like it

Wouldn't matter if he loved it with all his heart or despised it. These guns are going nowhere but to other law enforcement agencies or the scrapyard. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/20/miami-police-ukraine-gun-buyback-weapons/?fbclid=IwAR368lKOZxZ-EpOl83zETX2bSLKRpFOw02XmOcmierrQOuKcGaxPDJge3Rs

Quote

It is unclear how the Miami Police Department plans to get the weapons there [Ukraine]. Earlier this month, the Miami City Commission approved a resolution "directing the City Manager to take any and all action to ensure that weapons received through the city's gun buyback program are directed to Ukraine for the defense and liberation of the Ukrainian people against the Russian invader."

Typically, under Florida law, any weapon left in the hands of a state official must be handed over to the sheriff, who can use it, loan it to other departments in the state, destroy or sell it to benefit a state fund. State officials are not usually permitted to send the weapons overseas. Under a set of federal rules called the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, anyone seeking to export guns, ammunition and other defense-related items from the United States must get a license from the U.S. State Department.

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by LukeFF

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

It's a dumb idea bound to fail, both because these so-called buyback programs usually net old crap that nobody wants any more, and there's no way for Miami to actually transfer them to Ukraine. 

Yup, it is impractical.  As stated above, nobody over there would want the random stuff in random calibers in random condition even if someone was willing to navigate the various US, Ukrainian, and international arms control rules.  Plus, any law enforcement agency can participate in a gun buyback at any time and amnesty is generally a part of it.  Meaning, the offer itself is not novel.

And with that, let's please drop it and move on.  This is a pointless distraction.  Almost as pointless as talking about truck mounted artillery in WW2

Steve

[LukeFF]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

And with that, let's please drop it and move on.  This is a pointless distraction.  Almost as pointless as talking about truck mounted artillery in WW2

Understood