How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[fireship4]

2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Alexey Khlopotov (a.k.a. Gur Khan, the Russian tank commentator) says that his blog has now been blocked in the Russian Federation

https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/gur-khan-attacks.html

This portion of his latest post is worth a read:

Quote

Past accomplishments don't count. The truth is not needed by officials and security forces in Russia. She pricks their greasy eyes very painfully and makes the remnants of a sold conscience tremble. But idiots will never understand that the processes of globalization cannot be stopped, the information war (and not only the information war), being wrong, cannot be won. What have they achieved? Never mind! On the 8th they blocked, and on the 9th the traffic only grew! Personally, I find it funny to watch the attempts of the authorities to smear the Fuhrer from blood and ****. Think about this: the wheel of History, the course of historical processes cannot be changed or stopped by anyone. Six months, a year, five years will pass, but it will definitely turn around and crush all those who are now trying to create repressions: officials, prosecutors, judges, KGB agents, cops and all their lackeys-informers. It has been so many times, so it is, and so it will be. Leaders come and go and Russia is eternal! And the Russian people are eternal! They have already earned the stigma of eternal damnation, just like the executioners of the 1930s received. Neither you nor your children-grandchildren can wash it off. In the beautiful Russia of the future, your descendants will prefer to forget you.

 

[Armorgunner]

On 6/10/2022 at 6:29 PM, Kinophile said:

Incredible.

Haiduk's in for a hell of a surprise when he gets back on his pc...

FUNDED!

$1500 to get him a new laptop. Amazing. Thank you, everyone who donated.

 

Hey, I missed that! Can I still be a part of that? And if? how? I can give like 50 dollars! Give me a PM, if its not to late!

Edited June 12, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Armorgunner]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Jomini gives the big picture.... (but you'll need to read the fine print in that big red box.  Grab a coffee, or another drink, depending on your point on the globe)

Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school.

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

....Now, about that bit where the RAF completes the capture of Sieverdonetsk in the next 24 - 72 hours.....

In spite of his SOF pedigree, Chuck Pf is a lot on the rah rah  side, so bread and salt here, but nice map.

He also approvingly reposted this clip from the street fighting.

****

EDIT:  So I would humbly pronounce the entire Jomini thread essential reading for anyone following this board.  Like his namesake, he tends to be on the conservative side, but he is making sense here in light of the current facts on the ground.

BUT, I will ask a fairly obvious question:

1.   If the Russian effort rides pretty much entirely on heavy artillery right now, to the tune of about 900 tubes or launchers in the key sector; and

2.  If drones are a real pain in the arse to shoot down right now, and can roam with near impunity, day and night, limited only by their time aloft.....

Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? 

Or does the West need China in order to manufacture anything in bulk now?

.... And along those same lines, what's happened to the Bayraktars?  They haven't all been shot down, that's definitely not the case.  And aren't there some Gray Eagles quietly floating around?  Hmm....

I mentioned earlier General Giap snookering the French master artillerists (and they were really good!) at Dien Bien Phu by bunkering in his guns on forward slopes, refusing to play the traditional game. By the same token, conventional tube on tube counterbattery work remains important, but it may not be the only game in town any more.

So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)?  Because that would be simply awesome!

As our @The_Capt hath taught us, the offence / defence equation is seriously out of balance right now -- a convergence of disruptive innovations, in Clayton Christiansen's sense -- and more Big Surprises are likely in store before this ball stops ricocheting around. 

But the waaaaiting is the hardest part.

+1 to thisone, I have no more likes today. Sorry for that!

[Taranis]

3rd Battalion (reserve) deployment :

 

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not quite....

 

Yes of course! I was partly joking. But since this is repeated very widely, I will take the chance to note that this started before WW2 and before Nazi Germany revealed its full Nazi potential and intensions, also fooling the Soviets and then invading them to their big shock. Many people bring this to paint a Nazi brotherhood tone on the Soviets but it was more of a pseudo-deal somewhat reminscent to 1918s Brest-Litovsk but of course with the shameful Poland grab. Remember even Ghandi thought Hitler was cool back then, among many many others that didnt favor the British rule.

 

[alison]

One useful thing I find comes out of this sort of intra-European bickering is that it completely dispels the notion that NATO is some kind of sinister agent of US hegemony with a singular goal of crushing that country's enemies. This is what people who see the whole world through the lens of authoritarianism don't understand. In the "free" world, people are not only allowed to disagree on policy, but they openly and continuously debate it. Unfortunately that means we sometimes don't take as decisive action as would be ideal, but what's important is that when the action is taken we can be sure that the process was relatively transparent and the motivations are well-understood, even if not everyone was persuaded. In my opinion it is the freedom to have these conversations that is a big part of what structures like NATO are supposed to be protecting.

[AlsatianFelix]

An actual coordinated assault over open ground.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1535970647209304066?s=20&t=zv2DsH2xzJdbZYzy6mxGbw

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Jomini gives the big picture.... (but you'll need to read the fine print in that big red box.  Grab a coffee, or another drink, depending on your point on the globe)

Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school.

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

....Now, about that bit where the RAF completes the capture of Sieverdonetsk in the next 24 - 72 hours.....

In spite of his SOF pedigree, Chuck Pf is a lot on the rah rah  side, so bread and salt here, but nice map.

He also approvingly reposted this clip from the street fighting.

****

EDIT:  So I would humbly pronounce the entire Jomini thread essential reading for anyone following this board.  Like his namesake, he tends to be on the conservative side, but he is making sense here in light of the current facts on the ground.

BUT, I will ask a fairly obvious question:

1.   If the Russian effort rides pretty much entirely on heavy artillery right now, to the tune of about 900 tubes or launchers in the key sector; and

2.  If drones are a real pain in the arse to shoot down right now, and can roam with near impunity, day and night, limited only by their time aloft.....

Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? 

Or does the West need China in order to manufacture anything in bulk now?

.... And along those same lines, what's happened to the Bayraktars?  They haven't all been shot down, that's definitely not the case.  And aren't there some Gray Eagles quietly floating around?  Hmm....

I mentioned earlier General Giap snookering the French master artillerists (and they were really good!) at Dien Bien Phu by bunkering in his guns on forward slopes, refusing to play the traditional game. By the same token, conventional tube on tube counterbattery work remains important, but it may not be the only game in town any more.

So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)?  Because that would be simply awesome!

As our @The_Capt hath taught us, the offence / defence equation is seriously out of balance right now -- a convergence of disruptive innovations, in Clayton Christiansen's sense -- and more Big Surprises are likely in store before this ball stops ricocheting around. 

But the waaaaiting is the hardest part.

So for the record, calling Jomini a "little conservative" is akin to calling Billy Graham "a little religious" - the man tried to create a deterministic theory of warfare based on geometry, and Clausewitz called him on it...and frankly I think Uncle Carl was extremely conservative by modern standards.

That said, I am not sure what the story is around Severodonetsk to be honest.  I completely disagree with J of the West assessment that Severodonetsk is a "strategic decisive point for the RAF" and by taking it they gain "a pivot for operations" and a "pivot for manoeuvre".  If we look at wiki for the latest situation:

And then a G-Earth shot (I will try and do an MFSF flight later):

None of what J of W is stating as "importance" makes sense.  If this was a break out battle over the river and to take Lysynchansk, maybe.  But his argument that the "undefendable terrain of the western Donetsk Oblast" on the other side of this river, also make no sense as we know the RA advances out of Popasna have stalled.  As have the attempts coming down from the North out of Izyum...this is all the same type of rolling terrain spotty with water features.  The idea that if the RAF somehow takes the far bank town of Severodonetsk it is set up for a rolling breakout manoeuvre battle is sensationalism at best, and applying metrics from the Gulf War to this one at worst.  If the RA takes Severodonetsk, they still have a major water obstacle dominated by a very long ridge line to try and assault, then more urban area, and then rolling terrain which the UA has stopped them on along other axis.  So seriously, WTF "Jomini of the West"?

This battle is likely more along the lines of Verdun albeit what I suspect are for different reasons (I am not sure of the historical angle but Haiduk did mention this was a big fight in WW2).  This is a "I want that" and "you can't have it...jerk" type fight.  The UA is there because it is a spot they can make the RA's life miserable an pull in forces. The RA wants it...well why does the RA want anything?  Likely because Putin has been briefed and figures it is also "really important" for reasons.

This battle is interesting in 1) it is definitely attritional, and 2) it looks like it may be the one spot where the Russians have managed to create information parity (but I have a major caveat to this).  The noise about guns and UA casualties is just that "noise".  The UA is not stupid, that is one thing they have proven in this war.  They would not be holding onto a far bank defence - one they really do not need - unless there was some serious advantage attached to it.  My bet is that it comes down to two things: the concentration of arty and EW.

Lets leverage Jomini for a second and lay it out (in some ways he was not wrong):

I am going to be extremely generous here and say the RA has its guns positioned within 30km of Severodonetsk based on ranges (D-20s do about 18 and the Pions can reach out at about 37, so for arguments sake).  That is a slice of a pizza that is 188 km around.  The Russians can realistically put their guns in about 1/3 of that circle - so about a 63 km arc, which translates into about 942 sq kms.  At "900 guns" that is a density of a gun per sq km.  That is a pretty high density of gun positions - not WWI - but likely the highest of this war.  Further you have all the logistics to support all them guns.  

Finally, the RA has concentrated a lot of EW to try and make this op box go dark for the UA: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-technology-90d760f01105b9aaf1886427dbfba917  All these emitters are pumping out an ungodly amount of EM and easily visible.

So what?  Well there is a lot of talk of Ukrainian losses in this fight, and I believe them.  But war is negotiation and sacrifice.  Those lives are not being spent for the far bank town the UA really does not need.  They are likely being spent to pull in the concentration of arty and EM...so the UA can hit them - attrition, like tracers, cuts both ways.  What is missing from all this is the RA losses on key arty, EM and logistics because  they are concentrating them around and on top of this operationally near-worthless town, that when successfully taken will bring all the joy of a colicky baby because you still have to take that brutal set of ridges...on the other side of a freakin river.

We have no idea how bad the Russians are taking it right now, because "dark box"...but you know who does...the UA.   The one thing all that EW cannot turn off are the space-based ISR assets that the West (primarily the US) are beaming directly to the UA.  All those RA assets are very visible to multi-spectral space-based ISR and I have every faith are being hit regularly in this fight; it is the only thing that makes any sense - the UA are trading infantry for RA arty, EW and logistics right now.  If they wanted to trade infantry-for-infantry they would be doing it from all those ridges, which is the the obvious fallback position.

The Russians on the other hand are trading their own critical resources so that Putin can declare a "great victory" of very little military value - just like they have done throughout this war.

[Aragorn2002]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So for the record, calling Jomini a "little conservative" is akin to calling Billy Graham "a little religious" - the man tried to create a deterministic theory of warfare based on geometry, and Clausewitz called him on it...and frankly I think Uncle Carl was extremely conservative by modern standards.

That said, I am not sure what the story is around Severodonetsk to be honest.  I completely disagree with J of the West assessment that Severodonetsk is a "strategic decisive point for the RAF" and by taking it they gain "a pivot for operations" and a "pivot for manoeuvre".  If we look at wiki for the latest situation:

And then a G-Earth shot (I will try and do an MFSF flight later):

None of what J of W is stating as "importance" makes sense.  If this was a break out battle over the river and to take Lysynchansk, maybe.  But his argument that the "undefendable terrain of the western Donetsk Oblast" on the other side of this river, also make no sense as we know the RA advances out of Popasna have stalled.  As have the attempts coming down from the North out of Izyum...this is all the same type of rolling terrain spotty with water features.  The idea that if the RAF somehow takes the far bank town of Severodonetsk it is set up for a rolling breakout manoeuvre battle is sensationalism at best, and applying metrics from the Gulf War to this one at worst.  If the RA takes Severodonetsk, they still have a major water obstacle dominated by a very long ridge line to try and assault, then more urban area, and then rolling terrain which the UA has stopped them on along other axis.  So seriously, WTF "Jomini of the West"?

This battle is likely more along the lines of Verdun albeit what I suspect are for different reasons (I am not sure of the historical angle but Haiduk did mention this was a big fight in WW2).  This is a "I want that" and "you can't have it...jerk" type fight.  The UA is there because it is a spot they can make the RA's life miserable an pull in forces. The RA wants it...well why does the RA want anything?  Likely because Putin has been briefed and figures it is also "really important" for reasons.

This battle is interesting in 1) it is definitely attritional, and 2) it looks like it may be the one spot where the Russians have managed to create information parity (but I have a major caveat to this).  The noise about guns and UA casualties is just that "noise".  The UA is not stupid, that is one thing they have proven in this war.  They would not be holding onto a far bank defence - one they really do not need - unless there was some serious advantage attached to it.  My bet is that it comes down to two things: the concentration of arty and EW.

Lets leverage Jomini for a second and lay it out (in some ways he was not wrong):

I am going to be extremely generous here and say the RA has its guns positioned within 30km of Severodonetsk based on ranges (D-20s do about 18 and the Pions can reach out at about 37, so for arguments sake).  That is a slice of a pizza that is 188 km around.  The Russians can realistically put their guns in about 1/3 of that circle - so about a 63 km arc, which translates into about 942 sq kms.  At "900 guns" that is a density of a gun per sq km.  That is a pretty high density of gun positions - not WWI - but likely the highest of this war.  Further you have all the logistics to support all them guns.  

Finally, the RA has concentrated a lot of EW to try and make this op box go dark for the UA: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-technology-90d760f01105b9aaf1886427dbfba917  All these emitters are pumping out an ungodly amount of EM and easily visible.

So what?  Well there is a lot of talk of Ukrainian losses in this fight, and I believe them.  But war is negotiation and sacrifice.  Those lives are not being spent for the far bank town the UA really does not need.  They are likely being spent to pull in the concentration of arty and EM...so the UA can hit them - attrition, like tracers, cuts both ways.  What is missing from all this is the RA losses on key arty, EM and logistics because  they are concentrating them around and on top of this operationally near-worthless town, that when successfully taken will bring all the joy of a colicky baby because you still have to take that brutal set of ridges...on the other side of a freakin river.

We have no idea how bad the Russians are taking it right now, because "dark box"...but you know who does...the UA.   The one thing all that EW cannot turn off are the space-based ISR assets that the West (primarily the US) are beaming directly to the UA.  All those RA assets are very visible to multi-spectral space-based ISR and I have every faith are being hit regularly in this fight; it is the only thing that makes any sense - the UA are trading infantry for RA arty, EW and logistics right now.  If they wanted to trade infantry-for-infantry they would be doing it from all those ridges, which is the the obvious fallback position.

The Russians on the other hand are trading their own critical resources so that Putin can declare a "great victory" of very little military value - just like they have done throughout this war.

After reading Jomini  I had a bunch of questions. You answered them all. One of them about the defencability of the Western Donets.

Rumours are Scholz and Macron will offer Ukraine to become EU candidate during their coming visit. Symbolic for now and the beginning of a long road, but nevertheless important.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_Capt]

Oh wait, there is more....seriously the Russian's are hitting a low point on the operational art of warfare.

So I did the MSFS flights [aside: we have been chewing on this for some time now but a micro-view of warfare, and what modern gaming software can provide should not be under-estimated] and for all us CM'ers out there, here is what your battlefield looks like once you take Severodonetsk:

And the view from the UA side:

And it gets better.  I flew the length of that river and it is like this for 40km total, from Pryvillya down to Nyzhnie  but wait, that is not the best part:

In order to avoid that insane frontal, across a river, dominated by a bluff/ridgeline and the follow on built up areas on that ridge - you need to go North or South.  North is the site of that screaming-baby-rabbits-dumpster-fire of a bridge crossing we saw earlier and south is Popasana...which you already freakin own!!  Seriously, if this was WW3 fan fiction I would toss it on the "dumb premise pile" and be done with it but here we are.

They gotta change the Russian national anthem after this war:

 

[Taranis]

https://www.facebook.com/dean.gatley/posts/10159143190043458

Former British soldier killed in action in Sievierodonetsk
Jordan Gatley, a former British soldier who fought alongside the Ukrainian army, was “shot to death” in Sievierodonetsk. On Facebook, his father, Dean Gatley, wrote: “[On June 10] we received the devastating news that our son, Jordan, was shot and killed in the city of Sievierodonetsk, Ukraine. Jordan left the British Army in March this year to pursue his career as a soldier in other areas. The war against Europe had and started, after careful consideration he went to Ukraine to help. »

After Scott Sibley, in April, he is the second Briton killed fighting alongside the Ukrainians against the Russian invasion.

 

[c3k]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Jomini gives the big picture.... (but you'll need to read the fine print in that big red box.  Grab a coffee, or another drink, depending on your point on the globe)

Brother Jomini definitely ain't in the Collapse school.

Note 900 artillery pieces, which tracks with that 7:1 Ukrainian intel estimate.  Mainly pointed at Sieverdonetsk.

....Now, about that bit where the RAF completes the capture of Sieverdonetsk in the next 24 - 72 hours.....

In spite of his SOF pedigree, Chuck Pf is a lot on the rah rah  side, so bread and salt here, but nice map.

He also approvingly reposted this clip from the street fighting.

****

EDIT:  So I would humbly pronounce the entire Jomini thread essential reading for anyone following this board.  Like his namesake, he tends to be on the conservative side, but he is making sense here in light of the current facts on the ground.

BUT, I will ask a fairly obvious question:

1.   If the Russian effort rides pretty much entirely on heavy artillery right now, to the tune of about 900 tubes or launchers in the key sector; and

2.  If drones are a real pain in the arse to shoot down right now, and can roam with near impunity, day and night, limited only by their time aloft.....

Where is that swarm of several thousand drones of all shapes and sizes, kamikaze and other, that will sniff out and neutralise these tubes, as well as their LOCs? 

Or does the West need China in order to manufacture anything in bulk now?

.... And along those same lines, what's happened to the Bayraktars?  They haven't all been shot down, that's definitely not the case.  And aren't there some Gray Eagles quietly floating around?  Hmm....

I mentioned earlier General Giap snookering the French master artillerists (and they were really good!) at Dien Bien Phu by bunkering in his guns on forward slopes, refusing to play the traditional game. By the same token, conventional tube on tube counterbattery work remains important, but it may not be the only game in town any more.

So could Sieverdonetsk be a giant trap, like DBP, luring all the first line RA artillery into massing so it can be whacked by some kind of massively scaled up Aerorozvidka (with a secure line to Nellis AFB)?  Because that would be simply awesome!

As our @The_Capt hath taught us, the offence / defence equation is seriously out of balance right now -- a convergence of disruptive innovations, in Clayton Christiansen's sense -- and more Big Surprises are likely in store before this ball stops ricocheting around. 

But the waaaaiting is the hardest part.

 

Russian artillery.

As I've stated (horn-tooting), their artillery MUST be attritted before Ukraine has a chance to successfully regain, and hold, its lost territory. Otherwise, Ukraine would just attack only to be pounded.

According to this site  https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/karl.wikland/viz/RussianmilitarylossesinUkraine2022/RussianmilitarylossesinUkraine2022

...Russia has lost ~625 artillery "systems" (tube and rocket?) since they invaded Ukraine. We're about 100 days in, so let's just call that about 6 tubes a day. Further, let's stipulate Russia cannot replace what gets lost with new production or old war reserves.

In the Lysychansk (<- my spelling of Ukrainian cities is not great. I studied Russian language for a year and barely scraped by: not a strength. So, forgive any mistakes in that regard)...anyway, near that city, the above-stated ratio is 7:1 with Russia having 900 tubes. That puts Ukraine near 128 or so. 

For artillery parity, purely based on numbers (not range, weight of fire, accuracy, etc.), that means Ukraine needs to eliminate about 772 tubes around there. At 6 per day, that's a bit over 4 months.  And, that assumes no Ukrainian arty losses (in that area).

Obviously, there are a LOT of external factors that adjust that calculus. Ukraine needs longer-ranged systems, that are accurate, with ISR/spotting, and a relatively stable front, to enable them to attrit the Russians down. The 155L52 systems coming online are great for counter-battery work (gotta outrange the Russians to do so effectively). Long-range GMLRS would be better...especially with submunitions.

That is a simplistic comparison, but shows the amount of work needed to overcome the Russian artillery numbers.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, sawomi said:

-> 

 

A source note:

"In mid-February 2022, Lira said that "no one over the age of 12 or with an IQ over 90 seriously believes that the Russians are going to invade [Ukraine] anytime soon"."

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh wait, there is more....seriously the Russian's are hitting a low point on the operational art of warfare.

You and Steve should create some twitter accounts to spread Good News for broader audiance. As always great and informative analysis.

Some notes:

1. Is it even doable in current state of things for RAF to shift its heavy artillery from the front to flanks and try to "cut the salient by fire"? There was some discussions about railline in Popasna region theoretically allowing better ammo supply.

2. Phillips P. OBrien did noticed about a week ago sharp increase in loosess of Russian artillery reported by UA at the expense of tanks. Anything directly observable was rather connected to Southern and Kharkiv fronts, but this could allign well with your predictions.

3. Given reported severity of Severdoneck fights, there was maybe 5-10 videos of direct combat and none of it by drones. Curious if Russian EW can jam their own small tactical UAV's.

4.Perhaps the cause of UA holding the city by nails are future offensives?

 

 

[c3k]

4 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Thanks. This is a good look at how the system works. The ultimate hipshoot weapon. Set up, fire, break down, all in a few minutes. That makes it very survivable from counter battery radar location. Your worry remains just if a drone has tracked you to a position and can get that data to a firing battery fast enough to react before you are gone. Possible, but challenging for the enemy.

Dave

Or, if you bivouac at the same location prior to trundling out to one of just a few firing sites, only to return to the same bivouac.   

Mobility is only useful in this case if you do not create predictable patterns of behavior.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, c3k said:

 

Russian artillery.

As I've stated (horn-tooting), their artillery MUST be attritted before Ukraine has a chance to successfully regain, and hold, its lost territory. Otherwise, Ukraine would just attack only to be pounded.

According to this site  https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/karl.wikland/viz/RussianmilitarylossesinUkraine2022/RussianmilitarylossesinUkraine2022

...Russia has lost ~625 artillery "systems" (tube and rocket?) since they invaded Ukraine. We're about 100 days in, so let's just call that about 6 tubes a day. Further, let's stipulate Russia cannot replace what gets lost with new production or old war reserves.

In the Lysychansk (<- my spelling of Ukrainian cities is not great. I studied Russian language for a year and barely scraped by: not a strength. So, forgive any mistakes in that regard)...anyway, near that city, the above-stated ratio is 7:1 with Russia having 900 tubes. That puts Ukraine near 128 or so. 

For artillery parity, purely based on numbers (not range, weight of fire, accuracy, etc.), that means Ukraine needs to eliminate about 772 tubes around there. At 6 per day, that's a bit over 4 months.  And, that assumes no Ukrainian arty losses (in that area).

Obviously, there are a LOT of external factors that adjust that calculus. Ukraine needs longer-ranged systems, that are accurate, with ISR/spotting, and a relatively stable front, to enable them to attrit the Russians down. The 155L52 systems coming online are great for counter-battery work (gotta outrange the Russians to do so effectively). Long-range GMLRS would be better...especially with submunitions.

That is a simplistic comparison, but shows the amount of work needed to overcome the Russian artillery numbers.

So been pondering this one as well:

- UA does not need to destroy every RA arty piece in order to create operational effect/outcomes.  They need to degrade the RA artillery system to a point that it is no longer effective at accurately massing fires. 

- There a a number of routes to this objective that range from killing/attriting trained crews and FOs.  To hitting RA logistics to the point it cannot get ammo or fuel to all those guns. To finally hitting those guns and their prime movers themselves.

- It depends what everyone's guns are shooting at and how well.  I will take 128 UA guns if they are mostly M777s linked into western ISR and are hitting the RA artillery systems with high accuracy and effect.  Versus 900 RA guns all focused on smashing UA infantry to take ground they do not need.

UA does need any and all deep strike capability we can give them.  What we have not seen are NLOS ATGMs/self-loitering - of course the problem with some of these will be EW but western systems are supposed to be set up for that.  Or next gen more autonomous unmanned systems that don't need a ground link.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

You and Steve should create some twitter accounts to spread Good News for broader audiance. As always great and informative analysis.

Some notes:

1. Is it even doable in current state of things for RAF to shift its heavy artillery from the front to flanks and try to "cut the salient by fire"? There was some discussions about railline in Popasna region theoretically allowing better ammo supply.

2. Phillips P. OBrien did noticed about a week ago sharp increase in loosess of Russian artillery reported by UA at the expense of tanks. Anything directly observable was rather connected to Southern and Kharkiv fronts, but this could allign well with your predictions.

3. Given reported severity of Severdoneck fights, there was maybe 5-10 videos of direct combat and none of it by drones. Curious if Russian EW can jam their own small tactical UAV's.

4.Perhaps the cause of UA holding the city by nails are future offensives?

 

 

Thanks, but I, for one, do not want the extra attention.  Our little shop here is just fine.

1.  Kinda asking myself that one too.  If the RA can concentrate 900 guns anywhere and support them, why not do it at Poposna and try and cut the salient?  This whole thing has a symbolic feel to it from the RA side.  That or the RA has run out of gas for manoeuvre entirely, so bombing countryside out near Poposna with no ability to exploit is a waste of effort from a Russian perspective.

2.  Heard rumours as well.  Problem is that we are likely as far as current OSINT can take us, however, that does not mean things are going on.  I noticed Oryx numbers have flattened, likely because there is not much coming out on social media from the area on either side.  We get snippets but not like before.  Could also be a result of UA conventional doing the heavy lifting on this one and they are far more tight with OPSEC.

3.  No idea.  Russian UAVs are likely commercial, based on the video of some captured.  Which means they are not setup for an EW environment either.  The western MILCOTs should be.

4.  Again, unclear. My guess would be to draw in RA enablers in concentration in order to kill them, which makes future RA offensives even weaker.  I am not sure what the UA trigger for offensive operations are, or where.  Were it me I would be focusing on Kherson area and cutting that "strategic landbridge" but manoeuvre in this war has taken on new dimensions.  It could be just as likely the aim here it to attrit the RA until it collapses, just like last time.

[db_zero]

FS2020 looks great and give a basic approximation, but keep in mind that it doesn't always accurately interpret terrain features. Trees and other features can be exaggerated, misplaced and have abnormalities.

You can get add-ons to clean up features, but even they aren't perfect. I've been and go to many different places and FS 2020 does a decent job, but some places especially out of the way places can be off to a significant degree.  

When it comes to military operations the errors probably amount to significant. Then there is the seasons and weather.  

[Vet 0369]

On 6/11/2022 at 6:58 AM, poesel said:

.Then why did Poland insist on Leo2 A7s instead of available A4s?

Whether you are negotiating an arms deal or requesting fire support, you request nukes and accept 60mm mortars. It is always common practice to goe for the best while being willing to except the lesser.

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

Or, if you bivouac at the same location prior to trundling out to one of just a few firing sites, only to return to the same bivouac.   

Mobility is only useful in this case if you do not create predictable patterns of behavior.

Well, yeah, you shouldn't be doing that no matter what type your guns are or who you are.

Dave

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, db_zero said:

When it comes to military operations the errors probably amount to significant. Then there is the seasons and weather.

Depends on the fidelity one needs.  If you want to site an MG position, sure.  If you want to see how the RA is setting itself up for a tactical nightmare....

[z1812]

This article, while not necessarily encouraging,  seems a reasonable account of the current situation.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/9/is-russia-inching-towards-victory-in-ukraines-donbas-region

[Armorgunner]

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, z1812 said:

This article, while not necessarily encouraging,  seems a reasonable account of the current situation.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/9/is-russia-inching-towards-victory-in-ukraines-donbas-region

No surprises there, but enough to worry about. Time to retreat and make the war mobile again. 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

North is the site of that screaming-baby-rabbits-dumpster-fire of a bridge crossing we saw earlier

That's a keeper!

As to Jomini, when he spoke of a pivot point I think he was referring to the entire salient (UA controlled Donbas) behind Sivierdonetsk, not just the city, clear back to Siversk, at least. Or that's how I read him, anyway.

Also, this map I found yesterday suggests that the main concentration of Russian guns is north of Sivierdonetsk. So perhaps a little wider angle and therefore slightly more area to deploy in. Doesn't change your points much tho, just for info

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank