How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

On 6/7/2022 at 11:16 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Russia is headed back to a mid 1990s situation.  Something Putin promised Russians they'd never see again under his leadership.  We're already seeing signs of this and the full effect of sanctions hasn't even hit yet.

I seem to recall someone making a pretty convincing argument that the full impact of the sanctions would likely be even worse than the 90s. But I'm not sure where to find the link.

[hcrof]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

...Why aren't UA (or Russian) squads killing more drones, at least the little quads as opposed to the big higher flying UAVs? Or maybe they are? Or maybe there's fewer of them than it looks like? TBH, I know little to nothing about the drone war but it seems like getting these things out of the skies should be pretty high on the list for both sides.

Anyone?

This is actually quite a hard problem to solve atm:

They are too small to hit with unguided fire

They don't have a big enough IR signature for a stinger type missile

If you tune your radar to be able to spot them you will be overwhelmed by false positives from birds and ground clutter

It looks like missiles like starstreak are designed with drones in mind, which is why they have a complicated semi-manual aiming system, and AAA or even "mad minute" small arms fire can just about manage, but they are far from reliable and it's easy enough to just send another drone.

I can see a lot more light AAA and starstreak type missiles in the near future as a counter, or even anti-drone drones!

Edit: and lasers - everyone is going for lasers like crazy to shoot down drones (among other things) but they aren't quite there yet

Edited June 10, 2022 by hcrof
Lasers

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

I parsed his blog again and found something interesting. He got an unofficial reply from RU MOD regarding his rants.

Young MO officers read Murz and shake hands for courage.

They read in private chats.
Only now they are preparing for Minsk-3

We won't pull, they say
If everything is how it is now, we won't pull

So, basically unofficially Russian officers more or less believe they cannot win but they plan to stay in the fight long enough for a new peace deal akin to Misnk-2. That's their end game.

 

Interesting.  Not surprising that this is apparently what the Russian government is trying to do since it became clear that a military victory was impossible.

The purpose of a frozen conflict generally, but a "Minsk" agreement specifically, is to give Russia a means of preserving its gains without having to actively defend them.  Further, it makes it more difficult for the other side to restart active military operations because they may be viewed as the bad guys.  It's a truly brilliant strategy that Russia has been able to do far too many times.

If Minsk 3 is offered to Ukraine it is the same as Russia admitting it has lost the war.  This is similar to Minsk 2, where Russia realized that Ukraine wasn't going to surrender its sovereignty *and* was not interested in stopping an active war against Russian forces.  Russia calculated that there was a level of pain that the Ukrainians would be willing to at least pause the fighting, which is why we got Debaltsevo.  Both Russia and Ukraine needed a pause, so Minsk 2 was signed and then largely ignored by both sides.  I don't think Russia anticipated Ukraine being able to go 8 years with its middle finger raised to Moscow.

Conditions would have to be extremely dire for Ukraine to agree to Minsk 3, in whatever form Russia proposes.  And even if Ukraine does sign some form of Minsk 3, it will be similar to Minsk 2... it will only pause the war, not end it.

If the war is paused then what comes next? 

Both countries will rebuild their militaries, that is a given.  This is a huge problem for Russia because it has suffered vastly more damage to its military than Ukraine has and doesn't have the money to rebuild on a scale necessary to again wage war against Ukraine.  Even if sanctions are relaxed (and I VERY much doubt that will happen), Russia dedicates a huge amount of its GDP to rebuilding, and Putin (and/or his successors) are able to keep the Russian people from revolting it will take many years (5-10).  Even more problematic for Russia is that chances are all it will manage to do is rebuild the same flawed military that lost this war so totally.

On the other side, Ukraine will rebuild with massive assistance from the West.  The "Scholzing" problems will resolve themselves, though they are a sidebar to the rebuild and not a major impediment to it.  Ukraine will not only have a materially superior force by the time the rebuild is done, but it will also be built to more-or-less NATO standards.  And it will do this all within a couple of years.

Barring any major political improvements within Moscow during this time, Ukraine will take back its territory by force and Russia won't be able to stop it.  More likely, though, is that Russia's attempts to rebuild its military will break the nation in some significant way that would make for either a very short war (i.e. Ukraine rolls in fairly easily) or a Russian withdrawal of some sort.

Then there's the monitoring protocols.  The OSCE is not going to happen again, so Russia would likely have to agree to a UN patrolled demilitarized buffer.  I really don't see a practical alternative.  I also anticipate there will be NATO "trigger" units positioned within Ukraine at a minimum. 

My take on this is even if Ukraine is obligated to accept a cease fire of some sort, it is an admission by Russia that it has lost the war and it sets up conditions for Ukraine to take back all of its territory, including Crimea and Donbas.  I don't think that is the preferable outcome for this war, but it wouldn't be a terrible one either.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

11 minutes ago, hcrof said:

This is actually quite a hard problem to solve atm:

They are too small to hit with unguided fire

They don't have a big enough IR signature for a stinger type missile

If you tune your radar to be able to spot them you will be overwhelmed by false positives from birds and ground clutter

It looks like missiles like starstreak are designed with drones in mind, which is why they have a complicated semi-manual aiming system, and AAA or even "mad minute" small arms fire can just about manage, but they are far from reliable and it's easy enough to just send another drone.

I can see a lot more light AAA and starstreak type missiles in the near future as a counter, or even anti-drone drones!

Good info, thanks.

This is getting in @The_Capt's wheelhouse, but seems to me there's a serious mismatch at tactical level here today.

In the Sixties, you had Ryan Firebees and by the 70s variants on ALCMs, then stealth tech and Reapers, Predators, etc. for the GWOT. All very strategic level assets, crazy expensive and accordingly rare.

But you're saying here that a 250 USD Chinese drone that could be issued to and used by any rando rifle squad still needs a 3 million(?) missile or AAA system deployed to the front by a specialised formation to neutralise it!  Wow.  I mean, not saying you're wrong, but wow.

Edited June 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

1 minute ago, hcrof said:

This is actually quite a hard problem to solve atm:

They are too small to hit with unguided fire

They don't have a big enough IR signature for a stinger type missile

If you tune your radar to be able to spot them you will be overwhelmed by false positives from birds and ground clutter

It looks like missiles like starstreak are designed with drones in mind, which is why they have a complicated semi-manual aiming system, and AAA or even "mad minute" small arms fire can just about manage, but they are far from reliable and it's easy enough to just send another drone.

I can see a lot more light AAA and starstreak type missiles in the near future as a counter, or even anti-drone drones!

Here's a proposal for system based on  12,7 mm rotary cannon. Thermal camera coupled with radar should probably eliminate  most false positives. Modular platform should fit on a pickup truck. Prototype was tested during air-defence drills that are taking place on the Baltic shore right now.

 

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Like why the Sam Hill would this kind of thing ever happen? You're on patrol and hear something buzzing above you, you kill it (shotgun? or what?), or else assume the enemy knows exactly where you are....

Anyone?

This video looks like fake - Russians look and sound like they are acting (amateurishly)

[panzermartin]

53 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Russians helped Germans to start whole things. Then almost lost to them and survived due to the help from countries across channel/pond only to grab significant portion of Europe to murder, enslave and steal. 

Can we deal with Germans next time without Ivan? They are kind of buzzkillers. Sometimes literally. 

I'm not sure we can, at least with WW2 in mind. 

History shows we need Ivan to balance the system. It's like removing the Orca killer whales from the ocean because they are hostile. But they also keep an eye on the sharks. Now who is the dolphin...

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

This video looks like fake - Russians look and sound like they are acting (amateurishly)

ha, it's LLFs day for Alternative Facts then lol! I hope you're right, in this case!

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I seem to recall someone making a pretty convincing argument that the full impact of the sanctions would likely be even worse than the 90s. But I'm not sure where to find the link.

If you find it that link it would be appreciated, but I think we can all guess as to why it will be worse this time.  All those nasty Soviet era thugs (black market and government) had to jockey for power and secure the spoils of decades of centralized government.  There was a vacuum and that absorbed quite a bit of the violence.

In this case there is no vacuum.  Everything is already under the firm control of thugs, which means they will have to fight someone to either keep or take a particular resource.  The Russian government is nothing but a collection of thugs, so there won't be a strong and unified counterweight to all of these small criminal wars.  This in turn will put more pressure on the Russian government's authority, which in turn makes for less happy people.  Civil war within Russia might not happen in a traditional territorial sense, though it most definitely could (and I'd say likely), however a violent and brutal power struggle that leaves the average Russian in very bad shape is about as inevitable as inevitable can get.

Steve

[hcrof]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a proposal for system based on  12,7 mm rotary cannon. Thermal camera coupled with radar should probably eliminate  most false positives. Modular platform should fit on a pickup truck. Prototype was tested during air-defence drills that are taking place on the Baltic shore right now.

 

That's a pretty nice concept actually - the key is to make them cheap enough to fit on every APC in my opinion and that looks quite simple

[akd]

Ukrainians using tanks for indirect fire:

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This video looks like fake - Russians look and sound like they are acting (amateurishly)

Interesting take.  Completely plausible that the video is a fake, though I wouldn't at all be surprised if it is real.  There must be quite a few actions like this going on that aren't being uploaded for us to see.

Steve

[hcrof]

Just now, akd said:

Ukrainians using tanks for indirect fire:

 

I've always wondered if that is actually effective or just a quick way to wear out your main gun...

[Battlefront.com]

What I'm wondering about is why Ukraine isn't putting more effort into blowing up Russian controlled rail lines.  They did some of this early on in the war, even showing some really slick videos.  But there should be a lot more of this going on.  Railroads are extremely vulnerable even with out the high tech recon capabilities we have in this war, but with that they are basically naked.  Even if Russia hardened every single railbridge and switch (the expensive stuff to repair), they can not protect all those thousands of KMs of rail.  It takes time to repair even one section, so a constant blowing up of sections here and there effectively ends Russia's ability to move things by rail.

I just don't get it.  This is all obvious stuff and should be within Ukraine's capabilities.  Yet it isn't happening.

Steve

[Kinophile]

I've been very curious about that too. All this talk of game-changing arty systems, I just don't buy. All it is is better attrition, but at the rate of arty fire which is...slow. If the Ivan is really hurting at the front line then its high time to Kiev the hell out of their logisitics. 

But there must be some issues e.g with the sheer quantity of RUS troops available, or that the pressure is so intense that UKR cannot support deep strike units, to get them out when they inevitably get into trouble. Which then makes such missions suicidal and hard to volunteer for...

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm not sure we can, at least with WW2 in mind. 

History shows we need Ivan to balance the system. It's like removing the Orca killer whales from the ocean because they are hostile. But they also keep an eye on the sharks. Now who is the dolphin...

Yeah, while I'm closer to Steve in terms of seeing NATO as a generally benevolent alliance, this kind of thing from the NYT Syria piece he linked earlier makes it all too easy to get folks, especially formerly colonised nationals, believing that Uncle Sam and the West project power globally largely for cynical and materialistic self-serving reasons.....

Russia and the United States were backing separate offensives against the Islamic State in Syria’s oil-rich Deir al-Zour Province, which borders Iraq.... A team of about 30 Delta Force soldiers and Rangers from the Joint Special Operations Command were working alongside Kurdish and Arab forces at a small dusty outpost next to a Conoco gas plant, near the city of Deir al-Zour.

[/Facepalm]

Edited June 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

90% FUNDED!

(I got excited and forgot I'd increased the level to $1500)

https://www.gofundme.com/manage/get-haiduk-a-laptop#

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I'm wondering about is why Ukraine isn't putting more effort into blowing up Russian controlled rail lines.  They did some of this early on in the war, even showing some really slick videos.  But there should be a lot more of this going on.  Railroads are extremely vulnerable even with out the high tech recon capabilities we have in this war, but with that they are basically naked.  Even if Russia hardened every single railbridge and switch (the expensive stuff to repair), they can not protect all those thousands of KMs of rail.  It takes time to repair even one section, so a constant blowing up of sections here and there effectively ends Russia's ability to move things by rail.

I just don't get it.  This is all obvious stuff and should be within Ukraine's capabilities.  Yet it isn't happening.

Steve

Do you mean shooting at them with artillery? They did a raid on Tokmak some time ago, but it is around 30km from the front so rather a one time thing. Line from Belgorod through Vovchansk is an obvious target, but there's an alternative route and I'm pretty sure Russians already re-routed all the trains that go to Kupyansk to safe lines Apart from that, when you take a look at the railway map, there are no sensible targets at the moment as far as I can tell. I doubt there's any traffic through the "land bridge" at the moment , everything has to be going through Crimea.

GMLRS will change it soon hopefully, putting basically any rail chokepoint in the theater within range.  L52 NATO guns might have an impact as well, but those are too few and just started to arrive to be noticable in this regard I think.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[Armorgunner]

Interesting thread about Nazirussian thinking. And that they not send hardly any soldiers from Moscov, or St. petersburg to war. Only "Unter menschen" from far away republicks.

 

 

[hcrof]

With GMRLS, you could potentially just fire 1 rocket a day at a random piece of track and shut the line down permanently for minimal cost!

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But you're saying here that a 250 USD Chinese drone that could be issued to and used by any rando rifle squad still needs a 3 million(?) missile or AAA system deployed to the front by a specialised formation to neutralise it!  Wow.  I mean, not saying you're wrong, but wow.

And it is likely to get worse.  Someone is going to figure out how to make a cheap UGV with a shaped charge that can scuttle out of the brush - think minefield with legs.  The scary reality is that miniaturization and IT are combining to make long range lethality much cheaper and our counters/defence are still pointed a the wrong targets.

Weirdly in this war it looks like defensive warfare is gaining primacy - which isn't supposed to be what happens, or maybe we just missed the fact that ISR and not Strike was going to be the determining factor.

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, hcrof said:

With GMRLS, you could potentially just fire 1 rocket a day at a random piece of track and shut the line down permanently for minimal cost!

Even better, lobbing a few into a switching yard would really cause havoc, and that isn't that easily repairable. OTOH targeting a regular fragment of railroad track at maximum range of 155 mm guns might not be that easy really. You need almost a direct hit to really break it, so at that range it's a huge expenditure of shells, probably not really cost effective. Repairing a regular track can be done in a matter of hours - not to a TGV standard, but for slow rolling military cargo trains it shouldn't be a problem.

Also, Russian railroad troops are patrolling the train tracks - not only to protect them against sabotage, but also to fix if they spot a problem. Notice interesting features of this train: two locomotives with side armor plates, separated along the trains length, and spare rails on the platform car. With your typical rail weighting around 50kg/m, those can be manhandled by guys on the train, so no heavy equipment needed.

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

speaking of artillery, here's a nice summary of what UKR actually claims to have rec'd.  Author is ex-artillery soldier.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/10/2103317/-Ukraine-Update-As-Western-arms-flow-to-Ukraine-they-do-some-accounting

He's asking why US is not sending bradleys and he does very much understand the logistical side of things.  I sure would like to see a brigade armed w bradleys & those Polish T72s running rampant on the Melitopol front sometime before the rain begins in ~october.  Right now I suspect all our transport resources are already busy moving the M113s and artillery and ammo. 

[Rice]

This reminds me of the question on adding SPA to the modern titles, considering the point blank usage of stuff like the TOS-1, could be interesting. To finally have more on map stuff.

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And it is likely to get worse.  Someone is going to figure out how to make a cheap UGV with a shaped charge that can scuttle out of the brush - think minefield with legs.  The scary reality is that miniaturization and IT are combining to make long range lethality much cheaper and our counters/defence are still pointed a the wrong targets.

Weirdly in this war it looks like defensive warfare is gaining primacy - which isn't supposed to be what happens, or maybe we just missed the fact that ISR and not Strike was going to be the determining factor.

 

Like those famous Russian dogs at Rostov with mines strapped to them.

...Who allegedly failed to run under the German panzers as they had been trained (with food) because the Maybachs ran on gasoline, while the Soviet tanks were diesels.

(hey, I may as well go for the misinfo trifecta while I'm on a roll)