How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

57 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

A EU military pact is an illusion. It will never come off the ground. Europe is too divided, too short sighted to do anything effective without the US

Though there is truth in this, it's a very pessimistic prediction. Remember people were saying the same things for the economic union and common currency. Despite the flaws we can overcome the problems and find some unity. 

As Europeans do we forever have to rely militarily on a Patron from the other side of the Atlantic? I don't think so. We can of course always cooperate but we have to grow some self esteem on that matter. 

[DesertFox]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

Hence why any military alliance without US and UK in it isn't worse a damn.

Yes, true that. In the long run EU will get what it deserves. It will break apart.

[Ultradave]

Pres. Macron floated the idea of a "EU Army" and alliance a few years ago, when the US commitment to NATO was being held in doubt. Didn't go anywhere at all that I've seen since then and even at the time it seemed to be greeted with yawns.

Dave

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Though there is truth in this, it's a very pessimistic prediction. Remember people were saying the same things for the economic union and common currency. Despite the flaws we can overcome the problems and find some unity. 

As Europeans do we forever have to rely militarily on a Patron from the other side of the Atlantic? I don't think so. We can of course always cooperate but we have to grow some self esteem on that matter. 

For the time being, yes. NATO members should be  pulling their own weight of course, so spending should be up to the agreed level, but we can assume this will be done in upcoming years, and at least regarding Russia, the neighboring countries will be able to stand on their own.

Beside that what is the point of creating a security structure that by design excludes the most powerful country in the world, if said country is willing to participate? To take actions that is not aligned with this country? IIRC last time European countries did so was during the Suez Crisis - I'm pretty sure nobody in Europe would like to embark on such an endeavour again. Feeding French/ German/ whose ever hubris is not a good enough reason IMO.

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[panzermartin]

Well times have changed since Macron brought that up, and this conflict created some very loud developments, like the massive rearming of the Bundeswehr. 

We don't have a EU army yet but for a start Greece has already signed a mutual defense pact with France :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-france-defence-pact-protects-against-third-party-aggression-greek-pm-2021-10-07/

 

[poesel]

Before Trump & Putins invasion there really was no chance for an EU army. No one would have thought the US could go isolationist and that there could be a major war in Europe.
These events could be the catalyst that makes it happen. And whatever form that EU army takes, it will be firmly inside NATO.

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Well times have changed since Macron brought that up, and this conflict created some very loud developments, like the massive rearming of the Bundeswehr. 

We don't have a EU army yet but for a start Greece has already signed a mutual defense pact with France :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-france-defence-pact-protects-against-third-party-aggression-greek-pm-2021-10-07/

 

But this was first and foremost about armaments selling, wasn't it? Greece is a very special case though and it is understandable that NATO membership, while crucial, might not be seen by Greeks as enough against Turkey.

Macrons talk about "not being naive and protecting itself from powers" sound like it's directed at US and UK in this context - I understand him being disenchanted about the sub deal with Australia, but it's something CEE or Nordic countries hardly care about.

IMO the Ukraine crisis is a nail to the coffin of collective EU defence, or at least something that will delay it for decades.

Edit:

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/largest-military-exercise-of-the-turkish-army-in-years-efes-2022/

Infront of NATO officials in the biggest exercise of invading a "random island" with participation of most NATO members, Erdogan spoke about how seriously he is about the status quo of the aegean islands and how "they will come suddenly one night". 

Yes a joke. 

Where did you read that statement from Erdogan?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

In 2002 the Bundeswehr practically gave away 128 Leopard 2s to Poland. Another 120 were bought by the Poles in 2013. Hundreds and hundreds of other Leopard 2s were sold, lent or donated to other NATO countries. There's indeed not much left to send. The Netherlands made the same idiotic mistake. Hence my statement that the politicians behind such decisions should politically be held responsible.

There was nothing idiotic about it, it was beneficial for both parties even if driven by selfish interests. Poland serves as bufor for rest of Europe anyway so this (as well as NATO enlargment in general) was very smart move in longer term.

Idiotic (I would rather say "short-sighted") was that Germany did not produce more of its own equipment to fill the vacuum and recreate capabilities. They have plenty of time for this.

Unfortunatelly there is a wider psychological problem with German attitude to war and security in general. Creation of Bundeswehr was basically forced by Americans, and large segments of society still seem to be happy they get over with it, believing that after Soviets fall apart "we don't need an army".  Which is borderline naive, of course.

 

But it was widely discussed here before, so perhaps not doing offtopic:

There are conflicting reports about this Ukrainian barrage of stadium in Luhansk. Ukrainians are cheering and giving fantastic numbers of  hundreds Wagnerites being killed, but anybody here observing Telegram accounts have any confirmation of this?

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Beleg85

[Aragorn2002]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yes, true that. In the long run EU will get what it deserves. It will break apart.

Probably for the best too.

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

Beside that is the point of creating a security structure that by design excludes far most powerful country in the world, if said country is willing to participate? To take actions that is not aligned with this country?

How about the other way around, not necessarily taking actions that are aligned with this country. 

We don't necessarily have to exclude them when interests are mutual but not necessarily comply when interests are conflicting. Yes the sub deal was a punch below the waist, and a reminder that a powerful country (even on the same side) needs to be contained from time to time. 

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

But this was first and foremost about armaments selling, wasn't

Yes let's not fool ourselves. Behind every pact there is a lot of business involved...But it certainly is much more than that, we have been buying French Mirages and a lot of other stuff decades now, so it's nothing new. 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

How about the other way around, not necessarily taking actions that are aligned with this country. 

Sure, it was done before by US itself - Iraq was outside NATO framework completely. So are French actions in Africa AFAIK. I hardly see a point in another "universal" defence pact in Europe though, without US to set pace, EU countries would just end up squabbling indefinitely. 

Some more or less formal "blocks" inside NATO make perfect sense on the other hand - Poland and the Baltics would be more concentrated on countering Russia than say Spain or Italy, who would care more about unrest in Northern Africa etc. etc.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Huba

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Where did you read that statement from Erdogan?

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1186488/erdogan-issues-threat-of-military-force/

The "we will come one night" was posted by his party spokesman actually, I got it mixed.

by https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2022/06/09/erdogan-threatens-greece-islands-demilitarization-not-joking/

[Grigb]

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are conflicting reports about this Ukrainian barrage of stadium in Luhansk. Ukrainians are cheering and giving fantastic numbers of  hundreds Wagnerites being killed, but anybody here observing Telegram accounts have any confirmation of this?

Suspected number floating around is less than 2 dozens. 

Correction - this is not the final number. 

Edited June 10, 2022 by Grigb
updated info

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1186488/erdogan-issues-threat-of-military-force/

The "we will come one night" was posted by his party spokesman actually, I got it mixed.

by https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2022/06/09/erdogan-threatens-greece-islands-demilitarization-not-joking/

Hmmm, I see. Well, this is another problem that has to be dealt with when the war in the Ukraine is over.

[chuckdyke]

NATO will protect NATO members against invasion. What happens when a NATO country invades another NATO country? 

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Suspected number floating around is less than 2 dozens. 

Correction - this is not the final number. 

Thanks.

BTw, seems they were another victims of Social Media Era. Here a short clip seemingly from 7th June of Wagnerites enyoing their coffee...

 

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

NATO will protect NATO members against invasion. What happens when a NATO country invades another NATO country? 

If one of those countries is full of Turks, we will help the other country. Or wait, that will also mean we have to attack Germany, Netherlands, Belgium etc.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

For the time being, yes. NATO members should be  pulling their own weight of course, so spending should be up to the agreed level, but we can assume this will be done in upcoming years, and at least regarding Russia, the neighboring countries will be able to stand on their own.

Beside that what is the point of creating a security structure that by design excludes the most powerful country in the world, if said country is willing to participate? To take actions that is not aligned with this country? IIRC last time European countries did so was during the Suez Crisis - I'm pretty sure nobody in Europe would like to embark on such an endeavour again. Feeding French/ German/ whose ever hubris is not a good enough reason IMO.

 

Europe and the US are brothers in arms, no matter what we sometimes think of that. We share basically the same values and interests. We can't afford not to be allies.

[chuckdyke]

Would be funny if they invade Australia. One in three was born in Europe or is the child of European parents.

[DesertFox]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 Or wait, that will also mean we have to attack Germany, Netherlands, Belgium etc.

No problemo, as long as you bring along lots of Frikandels and Kibbeling.

[Kinophile]

GoFundMe link to get Haiduk a new laptop is now live!

Any questions please PM me directly.

@BFCElvis I wont be cluttering this thread with this.

Edited June 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, for those of you who read Murz's full rant I posed above, there was something in there referencing 150 dead Russians at the hands of Americans.  That is in reference to an action in Syria where a Wagner led force was dumb enough to attack US Special Forces:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

Steve

It appears to be a longstanding pattern for GRU-OON muckity mucks to give themselves hifallutin' classical callsigns, and not just Russian. So the Nazi reference of Wagner (actually it was his sister who was really the hardcore antisemite) may be incidental.

1.  I am informed by someone who drank with him that the GRU lead in Beirut in the chaotic early 80s went by 'Pushkin' (took some serious chutzpah for a Russian to claim that particular name...).  He was the guy who grabbed the daughters of the militia leader who ran the neighborhood where militants had taken the Soviet Embassy doctor hostage.  He sent a video of them, naked and trembling, with the message: nothing has happened to them, yet..... All exchanged within 12 hours.

2.  Also, the guy who ran the spetsnaz incursion into the Alaska North Slope in Feb 1981 to test whether Reagan's tough guy rhetoric was in earnest (the team was detected by Innuit hunters and Alaska Air Guard napalmed them: message received / message sent!) went by 'Sibelius'.

FWIW.

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Also, the guy who ran the spetsnaz incursion into the Alaska North Slope in Feb 1981 to test whether Reagan's tough guy rhetoric was in earnest (the team was detected by Innuit hunters and Alaska Air Guard napalmed them: message received / message sent!) went by 'Sibelius'.

Ok you got to back that one up...please.  I mean that is one helluva story but it sounds like myth. 

Edit - and I want it to be true.

Edited June 10, 2022 by The_Capt

[BFCElvis]

40 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

GoFundMe link to get Haiduk a new laptop is now live!

Any questions please PM me directly.

@BFCElvis I wont be cluttering this thread with this.

HHmmmmm....Interesting idea. The amount asking to be raised may be more than is needed and that may prevent the number from being hit. If I understand GoFundMe correctly, if the goal isn't hit then nothing is sent. You can get a really good laptop for half of that....or a third.