How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

Absurd.

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Absurd.

Drunken fool gets in bar fight and is busy getting his faced pounded into the curb outside.  But he still finds the energy to insult some other guy in the bar between impacts.  That's really impressive, really.  What an insane asylum of a country!

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Drunken fool gets in bar fight and is busy getting his faced pounded into the curb outside.  But he still finds the energy to insult some other guy in the bar between impacts.  That's really impressive, really.  What an insane asylum of a country!

I really can't imagine how normalization of relations between CEE countries and Russia would look like. Western Europe attempting to go back to "business as usual" will break any European unity that is still left. 

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Drunken fool gets in bar fight and is busy getting his faced pounded into the curb outside.  But he still finds the energy to insult some other guy in the bar between impacts.  That's really impressive, really.  What an insane asylum of a country!

4' 8" Drunken fool yells to the whole room 'C'mon, I'll take you all!" never noting most of the patrons of the bar are linebackers on a professional football team.

[chuckdyke]

19 minutes ago, Huba said:

I really can't imagine how normalization of relations between CEE countries and Russia would look like. Western Europe attempting to go back to "business as usual" will break any European unity that is still left. 

In the case of Germany, it took a generation. Politicians had no problem 10 years later I think it was in the 70's till it was business as usual. Russia I can't see it happening till there is a regime change. Business as usual with putin's united Russia's party?

[chuckdyke]

Interesting video of a modern version of AFV Hunting.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I'm not sure what issue you have with the article?

I really felt the author and/or the source was trying to imply the Ukrainians were doing something wrong or shady. As you just eloquently pointed out they are merely playing game intelligently. Doubly so as there are things the U.S. probably wants plausible deniability on. 

[Ultradave]

4 hours ago, chrisl said:

It's clear it was an internal detonation.  I just don't know enough about how artillery get damaged to know if it had to be just poor maintenance (cement rats nesting in the barrel?) or could result from external damage like CB that could then cause that kind of internal explosion on a later round.

Propellent issue combined with the round's warhead being somehow jammed in the barrel - some combination of the two. The actual warhead is very unlikely to explode. To arm fuses in US artillery requires "setback" (the shock of firing) PLUS a couple of rotations of the round. There are 1.5 turns in the barrel of a 105mm. If I remember correctly it takes 3 turns to arm.

But let's say the barrel got "dented" somehow so there was a projection or bump on the inside. Now this would be hard to do. More likely a barrel will crack than deform. But that could jam the round. All that propellent gas has to go somewhere. The breechblock is most likely stronger than the barrel, so the barrel is going to give at wherever it's weakest point is. Small flaw, crack.

Dave

[JonS]

Fuses fail.

https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/MINDEF_19970628001.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwimh-LXkJ_4AhXk7TgGHbbSAaUQFnoECAMQAg&usg=AOvVaw3Be7VZzP1B3eAlNdfSaHLt

Edited June 9, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, JonS said:

Fuses fail.

https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/MINDEF_19970628001.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwimh-LXkJ_4AhXk7TgGHbbSAaUQFnoECAMQAg&usg=AOvVaw3Be7VZzP1B3eAlNdfSaHLt

Lets hope the same factory made a bunch of fuses for the Russians. And that Pentagon QA is better than that.

[Machor]

More pics of that busted D-20:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I really felt the author and/or the source was trying to imply the Ukrainians were doing something wrong or shady. As you just eloquently pointed out they are merely playing game intelligently. Doubly so as there are things the U.S. probably wants plausible deniability on. 

I just read it and don't have a problem with it either.  It is simply pointing out something we here know, but maybe the general public does not.  And that is Ukraine is keeping its cards very close to its chest, even to its military partners.  Personally, I don't think it matters.  Decisions to send Ukraine weapons should be based on if the donor countries want to defeat Russia.  Knowing what Ukraine's operational plans are doesn't change the equation at all.  Donors should not be looking at this as a cautious "should we or shouldn't we" sort of thing.  It should be viewed as "all in and let the chips fall where they may!".

Steve

[Machor]

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm:

'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-ukraine-bakhmut-soldiers-exhausted-1.6278984

"Now, under ceaseless bombardment and after immense casualties, some Ukrainian troops say they are feeling abandoned by their leadership — left to die in hopeless conditions."

"Two fighters — Nikita, 35, and his companion, Mikhail, 56, both members of a Ukrainian army unit stationed nearby — just returned from the front line east of Bakhmut, about five kilometres from the city.

"The front just comes closer and closer," said Nikita. "We keep getting pushed back, further and further."

Nikita has been fighting in this region for more than a month now, pushing back against a Russian assault that broke through Ukrainian lines in mid-May and continues to close in on Bakhmut.

His colleague, Mikhail, had also fought in 2014, against the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, he says, is different.

"[In 2014], I could fight well enough with my rifle," said Mikhail. "Now, I can't. They hit us with planes, helicopters, mortars, tanks, GRADs [rocket artillery]."

"In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything."

"We are just cannon fodder," Mikhail interjects."

"Despite the thousands of pieces of Western military aid delivered to Ukraine, Nikita said he and his men have seen nothing of them.

"We have just our rifles. Maybe an RPG [launcher] or two. Against a tank or an armoured vehicle? What am I supposed to do?" he said rhetorically.

In his view, the leadership in Kyiv cares little for those fighting out here.

"[Kyiv] has not sent us any new weapons — and they're not going to," said Nikita. 

"Everything new and fancy has been reserved for those other places: Kyiv, Kharkiv, the big cities. Headquarters thinks, 'Well, you [in the east] have been fighting the Russians for eight years already. You'll be fine.'"

Nikita shakes his head, before turning to even harsher words for his superiors.

"You have to understand that there are two castes in this country," he said. "There's the upper caste, and then there's us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: 'Forward!' 

"That's how it's always worked here [in Ukraine]," he said, before emphasizing that he doesn't expect anyone to believe him.

"No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked.""

"Other soldiers filtering through the shawarma stand also tell dire tales of being outgunned and outnumbered as fighting in the region intensifies. 

Two scouts with Ukraine's naval infantry, both in their early 20s and both named Sergei, have been fighting since the first days of the war. 

They arrived in the Donbas after escaping the most difficult battle of Ukraine's war to date: Mariupol, the port city destroyed during a brutal two-month siege.

"We've been [fighting] along the entire eastern front line," said the younger Sergei, 21. 

"We were sent all over in the Mariupol area, in Nikolne, Rozivka, Zachativka," he said, listing villages north of the port city.

One of their assignments involved being sent to cover the retreat of Ukrainian forces pulling out of Mariupol — a task they say nearly saw them killed as they were overwhelmed by a Russian force they were not equipped to fight.

"Our guys [in Mariupol] were almost encircled, so we were sent there to guard the exodus," said the younger Sergei. "The Russians put out 200 vehicles against us. They caught us and surrounded us in a village. [It was] just 70 of us against all that."

The only weapons on hand for that fight, said the older Sergei, 24, were machine guns and a few N-LAWs, British-made anti-tank missiles.

"We held out for six days. We managed to destroy the first tank in their column and that held them up, as the others were stuck behind it," he said. 

"But they brought up their artillery. We had almost nothing to fight them with. Finally, we managed to escape at night — we snuck out on foot.""

"Dmitry, a 41-year-old member of Ukraine's Territorial Defence, uses a little humour to confront the grim reality of the situation. "Bakhmut, it's like Monte Carlo," he said, laughing. "Russian roulette on every corner!"

Then his eyes darken, and his smile fades.

"I can describe the situation here in a few short words," Dmitry said. "Very f--king awful.""

[Beleg85]

Hi

Just to say hallo. I was lurker in this topic for last 450+ pages and must say I am impressed by what I read here; it's probably one of the best discussion boards regarding this war on anglophone net. Being forced to work for several years on different social platforms like Fb or Discord one cannot appreciate enough old Forum form. Lengthly posts, experts, culture of discussions- kudos, gentlemen.

Anyway, I wanted to draw your attention to this article in New Yorker that is really worth reading.  https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-to-survive-russias-onslaught-in-eastern-ukraine

Beside veristic accounts on being under artillery barrage, the reporter spoke with deputy commander of Ukraine forces in Donbass gen. Tarnavsky and mayor of Kramatorsk, so really "big fishes". Some takes:

-Improved Russian tactics “If before they simply marched in large columns, now they have started to actually fight,” he said. The Russian Army has split its forces into smaller groups, which it uses, along with a sizable fleet of drones, to identify and target Ukrainian positions, hitting them with artillery and air strikes. When a particular zone or village has effectively been levelled, ground troops—a mixture of regular Russian soldiers, Wagner mercenaries, and fighters mobilized from the Russia-backed separatist territories in Donetsk and Luhansk, Tarnavsky said—move in to try to seize the rubble."

-Accounts of massive bombardments, sometimes even (hard to believe) of small Ukrainian squads being targeted by several Tochka missiles. Regular artillery advantage is 7:1, after which follows infantry in advantage 5:1 (mind you, it's general so probably best source around). Seems interesting in the light of changing balance between mass-firepower-manouver hypothesis by Freeman.

-Very heavy Ukrainian lossess, especially among regulars and specialists. “They are replaced by doctors and mechanics. We have manpower, but much of this core is dfead or wounded”

-Kramatorsk is being fortified in case enemy come. Mayor has no illusions- the city will become a battleground sooner or later.“We shouldn’t expect any miracles,” he told me. “It’s clear that the longer this goes on, the more territory Russia will gain.” His voice was both jovial and grave. “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re ****ed.”

So here are rather grim conclusions, different than those from for example ISW.

 

Oh, just spotted other user posted article. Anyway, some of these takes may be interesting.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[SeinfeldRules]

It’s always hard to gauge how a war is going from the perspective on the ground, especially when it’s the poor bloody infantry. I’m sure if you asked an American in the Huertgen Forest if they were winning the war they might have a difference of opinion from someone on another front. 

I still think it paints a bleak picture but remember that if the situation is this bad and the Russians are still struggling to achieve significant success - it probably means their forces are just as bad off as the Ukrainians. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Severdontesk pocket collapses - it does seem the Ukrainians officials are starting to telegraph that - but they may be leaving these forces on the vine to focus on building a second defensive line with other forces, instead of reinforcing a dangerous salient. 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Thank you. I am actually long time CM player (fell in love with CMBO) and forum reader as well.

Even better!

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

But I avoided commenting because until recently my opinion that Russians military sucks big time was not very popular.  

Tell me about it   Back in 2014 and 2015 I was arguing that the Russians weren't fighting all that well even though Ukraine was technically losing at the time.  People just could not wrap their heads around the concept that flaws were being exposed even though, strategically, Russia had the muscle to make it seem like they were winning.  Obviously the pro-Russian posters we had took issue with this point of view, but so did a lot of people not predisposed to being pro-Russian.  Ah, fun times.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

If I am not mistaken Murz said somewhere else that they started to compensate lack of proper infantry by increasing number of tubes used for assault support leaving some areas defenseless. For example, for Popasna assault they left Donetsk defenseless artillery wise.

I have not seen that noted yet, thank you for bringing into this discussion.  More evidence that Russia's forces are running low on combat power.

It is completely consistent with the general stripping of forces from "unimportant" sectors of the front and putting them into their primary points of effort.  Currently Severodonetsk and Popasna, less so Izyum and Lyman.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

AFAIK It is much worse - when weapons go to storage they are usually cannibalized for spare parts. After that nobody really checks or maintain them. Any auditor/controller is simply bribed. Possibly that is the reason they do not inspect guns beforehand - otherwise they will have to report the scale of the problem and face the consequences. 

Yes, definitely.  My point was that the equipment most likely went into storage in bad condition, which only gets worse when neglect and corruption are factored in.  The stripping of parts off of tanks was covered in the Western media early in the war, for example.  I also suspect that many were stored outside with minimal attention to protection from weather.

In the West when something is put into reserve it is reconditioned first, then mothballed in conditions that should preserve them well enough with minimal routine maintenance.  For example, here are Belgian M109s that are being shipped to Ukraine.  They look brand new!  You could probably eat off of the engine deck

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers.  20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.

Interesting.  I will not press you for details, but if you feel to tell us a bit more about your personal experiences you definitely have an audience here interested in learning more.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

 Oh, I hope one day somebody translate all Murz rants about how inefficient Russian Army is. Only Wagnerites/PMC or LDNR+Russian volunteers may be capable of doing that fast. But regular Russian Army on a mass scale? No. Just No. 

This is probably the biggest mistake Western experts (military and civilian) made in the 8 years since Crimea.  They misunderstood that what they were looking.  The Crimea operation was carried out by Russia's most prepared forces performing what amounted to a scripted exercise against no opposition.  Too many people saw it and said "well, I guess all of Russia's problems have been solved" and assumed the other 90% of the Russian military was just as good.

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Personally, from my limited experience with Russian army + what I know from reading Russians I believe your predictions are spot on. It is just Russian society (and the army as part of that society) is like pressure cooker - it can withstand a lot of internal pressure without huge visible cracks for a time being. Then it explodes when nobody expects.

Correct.  Studying history is an excellent way to predict WHAT might happen or at least understanding what IS happening.  History is not all that good at predicting WHEN because details matter and there's rarely two historical examples close enough in detail to make good comparisons.  That said, a good analysis can at least narrow the WHEN down, even if roughly.

An example of figuring out WHEN was back in early March when I predicted that Russian forces around Kyiv would face a point of collapse because there were good historical patterns to learn from.  People asked me the obvious question... "when will this happen?".  I couldn't answer that, however I was able to come up with an answer that predicted it would be days or weeks, not months or years.  I was correct about the timeframe, even though I was just as surprised as everybody else when it actually happened.  I'd rather be surprised by then WHEN than the WHAT

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, Machor said:

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm:

You find the same sorts of complaints in all wars, even when their side is winning.  Take any group of people of more than 100 (for example), and you will find a significant percentage view things negatively.  Their view is distorted towards the negative even when they are challenged.  Doesn't matter what the circumstances are, some people will complain.  We see that pretty clearly here every time we release a game

That said, it doesn't mean these guys' criticisms are distorted, made up, or otherwise invalid.  Things could be just as bad as they say they are, though they could be wrong about why.  Grumblers LOVE to draw conclusions about things they don't know much about.  They also don't seem to care about the fact that wars are difficult to fight and problems are just part of it.  And I don't blame them for that as they are in life or death situations.  But that doesn't mean they are correct any more than the customer claiming that our newly released game sucks and we don't care about out customers because they found a bug.

My take on their complaints is that Ukraine still has a lot of work to do with keeping the TD units (which the first two guys clearly are) well supplied.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Hi

Just to say hallo. I was lurker in this topic for last 450+ pages and must say I am impressed by what I read here; it's probably one of the best discussion boards regarding this war on anglophone net. Being forced to work for several years on different social platforms like Fb or Discord one cannot appreciate enough old Forum form. Lengthly posts, experts, culture of discussions- kudos, gentlemen.

Welcome and thanks for the compliments, especially about the Forum format we have here.  I personally don't like Discord and I absolutely hate FB, so if you were looking to score some brownie points.. here's 10 well earned ones

48 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Anyway, I wanted to draw your attention to this article in New Yorker that is really worth reading.  https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-to-survive-russias-onslaught-in-eastern-ukraine

Thank you.  I saw some of the quotes already posted here, but your link reminded me I should read the whole thing.  I am glad I did.

48 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

So here are rather grim conclusions, different than those from for example ISW.

Not really different.  The view from the ground is always more "colorful" than those following the overall trends.  Around Popasna, for example, ISW has correctly characterized the situation as initially very threatening transitioning to stalled or small gains by Russia.  There was nothing in the reporting of the CBC or New Yorker articles that contradicted what ISW reports.

The New Yorker article also pointed out that morale of Ukrainian forces is good, despite the losses and hardships.  This is extremely important.  Grumbling + high morale is one thing, grumbling + low morale is another.  You don't win wars with the former, you can win wars with the latter.

The complaints about artillery is as old as artillery.  Same thing for air power.  German soldiers fighting in Normandy, for example, complained bitterly about the abundance of US artillery and airstrikes.  Some called the US soldiers cowards and characterized the US as fighting an unfair war against them.  It is only natural that Ukrainian riflemen feel they are at a disadvantage against artillery and airstrikes because they are.  It's why artillery and airstrikes were invented

Steve

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just read it and don't have a problem with it either.  It is simply pointing out something we here know, but maybe the general public does not.  And that is Ukraine is keeping its cards very close to its chest, even to its military partners.  Personally, I don't think it matters.  Decisions to send Ukraine weapons should be based on if the donor countries want to defeat Russia.  Knowing what Ukraine's operational plans are doesn't change the equation at all.  Donors should not be looking at this as a cautious "should we or shouldn't we" sort of thing.  It should be viewed as "all in and let the chips fall where they may!".

Steve

LOL can't believe they actually complain about opsec.  WTF?!  So far Ukraine has done a stellar job with what they had and what's been sent.  Don't argue with a plan that is working just because you aren't included in the "need to know".  We aren't paying the price so we kind of lose a vote anyway.

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

LOL can't believe they actually complain about opsec.  WTF?!  So far Ukraine has done a stellar job with what they had and what's been sent.  Don't argue with a plan that is working just because you aren't included in the "need to know".  We aren't paying the price so we kind of lose a vote anyway.

The one slant of the article I did not like was the typical lack of historical perspective.  Just imagine in 1940...

"Well, the British aren't telling us what their plans are for liberating Europe.  I don't think we should send them anything to defeat Nazi Germany until we do.  I mean, yes we want to defeat Hitler and all of that, but what guarrantees do we have that if we send a whole bunch of stuff over that will happen?"

Short sighted thinking that lacks historical context, but hey... this is mass market journalism we're talking about.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/in-sievierodonetsk-fierce-urban-battle-ongoing-to-exhaust-russia/

Nothing we haven't discussed, but it is a very recent article from as good a source as you are going to find in english.

 

[Battlefront.com]

According to a trusted source, Ukrainian reporter Roman Tsymbalyuk says that the recently killed MG Roman Kutzov, in command of the 1st DPR Army Corps, was replaced by COL Oleg Senkov.  According to Tysmbalyuk there were no changes to offensive operations.  March forward, die, repeat.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/in-sievierodonetsk-fierce-urban-battle-ongoing-to-exhaust-russia/

Nothing we haven't discussed, but it is a very recent article from as good a source as you are going to find in english.

 

Yes, Ilia Ponomarenko's Twitter feed is also worth checking from time to time.,

....Speaking of Opsec, the anti-DSS security layers on the Kyiv Independent website are pretty stringent, for obvious reasons.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

One step closer for Ukraine's lengthy road towards EU membership:

Steve

[Fenris]

Long wait for DE systems

 

Colourful language in english is a little jarring being so used to hearing Ukrainian

Edited June 9, 2022 by Fenris
Updated tweet with more details