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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There are also a lot of phone calls about the DPLR guys having their delusions beaten out of them with a hammer. The "please lord Tsar we have been mistreated videos" from whole units being another example. Ukraine needs to figure out the right way to make those poor bleeped fools a better offer. It really shouldn't be hard, considering the Russians seem to be offering death now, or death in just a little while. A few well timed surrenders would wreck the Russian position pretty thoroughly.

"Good news, Comrades!   The Great Putin has heard your pleas and is very concerned by what you have said!  In fact, he has ordered us to alleviate your suffering as quickly as possible.  So you are in the first wave in all upcoming attacks!  Congratulations!"

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A little offtopic maybe. But today there is 41 NATO ships (from 14 different NATO members) in Stockholm, plus several Swedish ships, and submarines. Most inpressive is the 844 ft (257 meters) USS Kearsarge, and the 610 ft (190 meters) USS Gunston Hall. And the guided missile Destroyers USS Porter, and HMS Defender (the later Britsh). 

No need to google translate. Just look at the pictures. https://cornucopia.se/2022/06/fredagsmys-natoflottan-har-siktats-i-stockholm-missa-inte/

Edited by Armorgunner
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https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3499316-ukraine-army-retakes-20-of-sievierodonetsk-controls-half-of-city-haidai.html

Ukr has made some level of counterattack in Sievierdontesk. I suspect the The Russian Infantry will even less enthusiatic about taking the place twice.

Edit: cross posted with The_Monkey_King, who did a much better job.

Edited by dan/california
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6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3499316-ukraine-army-retakes-20-of-sievierodonetsk-controls-half-of-city-haidai.html

Ukr has made some level of counterattack in Sievierdontesk. I suspect the The Russian Infantry will even less enthusiatic about taking the place twice.

 

and that half is the industrial park half:
image.thumb.png.22b04bb01ab668ceabdff9f8e5ba630d.png

similar with the neighboring Rubizhne

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2 hours ago, dan/california said:

There are also a lot of phone calls about the DPLR guys having their delusions beaten out of them with a hammer. The "please lord Tsar we have been mistreated videos" from whole units being another example. Ukraine needs to figure out the right way to make those poor bleeped fools a better offer. It really shouldn't be hard, considering the Russians seem to be offering death now, or death in just a little while. A few well timed surrenders would wreck the Russian position pretty thoroughly.

I assume those conscripts have families that remain in the occupied territories. Be a little too willing to surrender, who knows what happens to your family you leave behind in DNR/LPR.

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Its one thing to let the enemy close in and then ambush and kill them, if they really retook Met'olkine, uh...that might actually count as a point for "it's a trap!" Considering the Russians reached the center of town.

I mean sure ambush the guys inside Severodonetsk but how the hell did they get the upper hand on the Russians in Met'olkine?

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1 hour ago, Gpig said:

Ukraine to get Leopard 2 tanks? Sorry if this has been posted before . . .
...

Switzerland says Germany can transfer Leopard 2 tanks once owned by the Swiss army

Nope. Switzerland has only allowed Germany to transfer those tanks to a foreign country. No plans for Ukraine but maybe Poland. But these are A4s that Poland doesn't want.

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2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Nope. Switzerland has only allowed Germany to transfer those tanks to a foreign country. No plans for Ukraine but maybe Poland. But these are A4s that Poland doesn't want.

Any info about specific numbers? 

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how about folks telling Switzerland - maybe we shouldn't buy weapons from you anymore?  I think it is about time Switzerland get told maybe you should just be a little landlocked country that no one wants to really invest in.  We can always ski in the Austrian and Italian Alps.

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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

AI and ML, here I am in the conservative camp.  If a roomful of pointdexters gave us mature next gen AI/ML it would likely take us 5-10 years just to figure out what to do with it, hell it would take us that long to get a grip on our data alone. 

As an example, though not relevant to warfare - I took a cancer screening test last year.  These folks used machine learning to find DNA matches to various cancers that could then be detected via a simple blood test.

MCED Resources & Information | Galleri® for HCPs

Machine learning is real.  The issue is more figuring out how to apply it.

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For those that follow such things, I have cultivated a certain image of, shall we say, "nonchalance" towards the lives of my pixeltruppen. 

I never thought anyone would take it seriously, let alone try to replicate it. Then Putin showed me that I had been mistaken.

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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Actually the trends we have been seeing in this war have been building for some time.  We have a pretty good idea what things will look like in 5-10 because we are buying it right now - that is how long procurement takes.  Everything in this war we have seen elsewhere - how it has been combined and upscaled is new and so are the results.

It has been combined and upscaled, but neither side can really put the package complete package together and keep it that way. In particular we seem to have overlapping incomplete ISR bubbles from each side more than we we have an actual clash of bubbles leading to ISR and fires superiority for one side of the other.

The Ukrainians can't take full advantage of their superior information flows because the just don't have the weight of fire to take advantage.  Beyond 155 range their options have been extremely limited so far. And their air forces sole job is to keep enough airframes operational to present a threat in being to Russian air operations

The Russians seem to have far less information, and a ridiculously slow and rigid system for taking advantage of the information they do have. That is not the least of the reasons  why they decided to restrict their entire offensive effort to  a five mile wide front in a zone with limited maneuver options. It appears to be at least possible that they STILL got out maneuvered if the latest reporting fro Sverodontesk is true. They appear to have little to no real time targeting past say a 100 miles in depth, if that. And to add insult to injury their PGMs don't seem to be very precise, or very reliable. Their air operations have been an embarrassment at best.

We haven't seen anything like this

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/28-drone-swarm-just-led-the-way-for-a-simulated-air-assault-mission/ar-AAXFZ1t

or this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_Stare

Certainly not this

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/17/stryker-laser-mortars-drones/

Never mind the USAF leading a thousand sortie opening night with a highly classified number of drones, followed 200 cruise missiles that actually hit what they are aimed at. Or the Chinese equivalent in SRBMs, although the later has never been tested in actual combat.

We get flashes of how it should all work, and at very high volume, but for very different reasons neither side can keep the symphony going.

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13 minutes ago, poesel said:

42 tanks that have been bought back by Rheinmetall about 10 years ago.

Then we wouldn't have any use for them, it's not even a full battalion while we gave out 2 armored brigades (around 250). Next big tank transfer to UA could be our 230 PT-91s but we'd rally need M1 as replacements. 

Edited by Huba
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Girkin's latest brings nothing special, either in terms of insights or cynicism. He continues to plump for general mobilisation.

...the Russian advance is largely exhausted due to natural reasons linked to casualties taken during the offensive.

...the Ukrainian army took very serious losses mainly due to aviation and artillery strikes concentrated on rather narrow directions. Ukrainian units fighting there are practically taking very serious losses in no-contact fights, since in contact fights our forces take more losses naturally as they are attacking. A number of Ukrainian units were frankly destroyed, a part of them we can say, judging by the losses, was defeated. Yet in general, the enemy’s groups preserved.

...what is clear is that in a situation where our and enemy’s forces are battling for mere meters of the Donetsk territory, the strategic victory by our forces most likely is impossible to achieve since the enemy has access to far more human resources in reserves than our armed forces do. 

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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