How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

I think the diplomatic problem for Ukraine might be that the war seems to be going so well for them that people in EU stopped being afraid of the Russians. As they are pushed back, the feeling of crisis is passing, and EU politicians are no longer under pressure to do everything to help out.

[kraze]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the diplomatic problem for Ukraine might be that the war seems to be going so well for them that people in EU stopped being afraid of the Russians. As they are pushed back, the feeling of crisis is passing, and EU politicians are no longer under pressure to do everything to help out.

It's that question of do they not realize that while Russia exists - there will always be wars and genocides on the continent? Or do they seriously hope that next time Russia will be ground to a halt somewhere near Warsaw or Riga and they will sigh with relief for another 5-10 years, before Russia comes back again? Or somebody just gets a bright idea that sacrificing Baltic states for "lasting peace" and prices not rising isn't a bad deal.

Edited May 19, 2022 by kraze

[poesel]

13 minutes ago, kraze said:

Equaling a single guy to a country is a bad idea. You know where that leads.

Steinmeier is the cermonial head of Germany. He literally represents Germany. Thats his job description.

Its about his position - not the person.

Zelensky should have dragged him through every mass grave in Butcha and have him publicly apologize for his past actions. But uninviting him is a slight to Germany. That was... clumsy.

13 minutes ago, kraze said:

Also British Queen isn't calling the shots. Steinmeier isn't some nobody, he still bears a ton of responsibilities and strings to pull - and he pulls them.

The Queen has more influence than Steinmeier (in & outside their respective country). He is only the figure head who does speeches which nobody cares about much.

[riptides]

At the tactical level, some moves become strategic.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5369483/putin-loses-legendary-sniper-colonel-botched-river-crossing/

[LongLeftFlank]

It appears Azovstal is indeed becoming Thermopylae....

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

As noted previously, after spending most of May, RA forces are finally reaching the Seviersky Donetz river line northeast of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk, and (it seems) bringing the key supply junction for UA forces in Donbas under long range fire.

I doubt 'cut off' (this last is a pro-Russian Yemeni feed)

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Fun read from Dupuy Institute,  with links, discussing the famed "3:1" ratio so beloved by game geeks raised on CRTs.  D back 2!

 

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

38 minutes ago, kraze said:

Equaling a single guy to a country is a bad idea. You know where that leads.

Also British Queen isn't calling the shots. Steinmeier isn't some nobody, he still bears a ton of responsibilities and strings to pull - and he pulls them. Even then the Queen already did a lot of good in the past few months (and never, ever did anything bad to Ukraine), whereas Steinmeier decided to act all insulted, instead of, I dunno, apologizing (which changes nothing but at least would've showed some accountability). Or at least telling it how it is, like Merkel did - "I regret nothing".

Ukraine is past trying to swallow deaths for 8 years and pretending like nothing bad happens. Rape, looting, mass executions and forced deportation to concentration camps deep in Siberia - all while Steinmeier was tight-lipped - happened before he got his well-deserved "insult".

I mean Germany pours money into a country that runs concentration camps in 2022 - what are we even talking about?

But that all is totally beside the point: Really, I don't mean this to be inflammatory, but for quite a while now I'm trying to understand this: Your country is in a bad situation and wants support from another country. What's the point, then, in antagonizing them? What do you think to gain by it? Like it or not, Steinmeier represents the German state. As such he is not just the person Steinmeier, just as your president is not just the person Selenskyj. If the president of one state makes the head of another state a persona non grata then this is not just about either of both as a person but about how one state communicates with another.

[Butschi]

delete, double post

Edited May 19, 2022 by Butschi

[Holien]

42 minutes ago, kraze said:

It's that question of do they not realize that while Russia exists - there will always be wars and genocides on the continent? Or do they seriously hope that next time Russia will be ground to a halt somewhere near Warsaw or Riga and they will sigh with relief for another 5-10 years, before Russia comes back again?

Yep people should understand this, BUT the vast majority of folk are what Steve rightly called unsophisticated and want just simple messages, they don’t understand complexity and just focus on their day to day living with little regard for what’s outside their horizon.

 

The Mood music is changing in Europe and  the world and it is not helping Ukraine.

 

I hope what Steve said a few pages back is true and that the work is done and Ukraine have enough on hand to finish the job as I fear there might be a window on how much help is given, especially if it looks like Ukraine is winning.

 

Some Humans are pretty fickle…

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Zelensky should have dragged him through every mass grave in Butcha and have him publicly apologize for his past actions.

Eh - wut?

Ritually and publicly humiliate the President of Germany?

You think that wouldn't be utterly destructive, pointless and immature?

For sure I think it was silly for Zelensky to not invite him. That was dumb. Zelensky's job is to save Ukraine, asap. Germany is the USA of Europe. You need something big, expensive and right now? Better get the Frankenfurters on your side. I thought it was very amateur of Zelensky. I understand the emotions but hes gotta think past that. Ive lived and worked in Germany; politeness, professionalism and cool-headedness are deep cultural characteristics for them, and they absolutely dont appreciate bad manners, excitableness and personal slights, especially in a business transaction. Especially then.

Zelensky getting personal means he didn't and doesn't "get" the Germans. For Ukrainians, this is a national war of survival, a moral crusade (I agree). For Germany, this is geopolitical business, transactional and must have mutual profit (Real Politik). Not understanding that reality, not being able to view from the German side, was a strategic failure. 

Insulting the German President, a fellow Head of State*, has increased German reluctance which just lengthens the war and leads directly to more dead Ukrainians. Zelensky will need to maneuver around that, or straight up apologize in some shape or form (The stress of war is a reasonable excuse).

Why add political and diplomatic friction to the success of your National Defense? Not smart.

 

*You'll notice I'm talking about the office of President, not the man, Steinmeier, who I personally feel is a human weasel flawed and compromised, yet was selected by the German electorate (via the Federal Convention) to represent Germany. But as said in Band of Brothers:

Especially if, gratingly, you need that two-legged rodent Politician to do something vital for you.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

Spanish feed, generally neutral in its coverage between UK and RU.

But just look at these ragamuffins fighting in the built up areas around their Popasna 'break-in'.

For those who want to take a look at the #Avdiivka areas where combat is fought and understand why the Ukrainians manage to withstand such a punishment, here are some images.

Donbas is not an open country fight; it is more like the Aachen or Breslau battles. One built up area after another, all zeroed in by the UA and probably heavily mined.  Lots of industrial complexes and buildings.

A nearly perfect killscape to bleed an army to death, day by day.

[keas66]

The complexities of a "United" Europe begin to reveal themselves -  I pity the American Diplomats who have to wade into this  cauldron of upset feelings  ,  national interests and pride - just to get folks to support the Ukrainians in the manner which they themselves already promised . Its bad enough in the  US already with the right versus the left . 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/16/2022 at 10:16 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Ha, Dovhenke is still in play! 

.... since early April, b!tchez.

 

 

French analyst has the same read on our old friend Dovhenke as you did a month ago, @Combatintman.  Perhaps he reads here lol.

The stubborn 'cork in the bottle' for the Izyum-Sloviansk highway.

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

OK, Russian Bizarro looking glass world has officially jumped the shark. 

RT talking heads comparing Mariupol to Stalingrad, and the Donbas offensive to Kursk.

You DO remember, don't you? that the attacker lost both those battles, catastrophically....

But suddenly I viddied, that thinking was for the Gloopy Ones, and the Omni Ones use, like, Inspiration, and what Bog sends!

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

It's that question of do they not realize that while Russia exists - there will always be wars and genocides on the continent? Or do they seriously hope that next time Russia will be ground to a halt somewhere near Warsaw or Riga and they will sigh with relief for another 5-10 years, before Russia comes back again? Or somebody just gets a bright idea that sacrificing Baltic states for "lasting peace" and prices not rising isn't a bad deal.

This, this, this! Nato has to hold its nerve and break the Russian will to fight. REALLY losing in Ukraine is a lesson even the shambles that is the Russian government will remember.

[akd]

View from the ground at Bilohorivka:

At least two 9P149 Shturm-S visible.

[LongLeftFlank]

Sorry about my flurry of posts, but most folks here seem happy to wheel in the sky over Western bougie ADD politix *yawn*.  How many divisions does Bono have?

This is some really great CM 'Level 4' style video, though somewhat edited:

Tanks vs UA rocketeers up near Kharkiv.

The Russian tank is guarding an infantry position, but the muzhiks can't be arsed to leave their holes to help their tank out.

Even the VDV, who as paratroopers are trained to use initiative and operate in small ad hoc detachments with what they can carry, seem tied to their BMDs.  Legacy of the Afgantsy and Chechen period, I guess.

Edited May 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Roman Sarychev, military commandant of Izhevsk, killed in Mariupol:

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

This is the letter/email I just sent my Congressman, and senators. Fell free to copy and paste to your hearts content. Open to suggestions for the next one.

 

The Biden Administration has generally done a decent job of navigating the war in Ukraine, But some faction in the Administration is apparently still trying split hairs on what support to give and not give Ukraine. Ukraine needs several different kinds of MLRS systems to win the artillery duel that is currently the heart of the war with Russia. According to various news reports the Administration is withholding these because they think it would be too provocative, or that the Ukrainians might launch a few at Belgorod. Just to state the obvious, the Russians are ALREADY mad, they have suffered tens of thousands of casualties due to the combination of western support and Ukrainian courage. They can't get any more upset. the only possible goal now is a complete Ukrainian victory. Send the Ukrainians anything they ask for. Send the MLRS systems, now today, send them better surface to air systems now, today. Biden can't run for a second term on some ugly compromise in Ukraine, He can WIN a second term with the world celebrating Eurovision next year in a liberated Mariupol.

[TheVulture]

 

 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Eh - wut?

Ritually and publicly humiliate the President of Germany?

You think that wouldn't be utterly destructive, pointless and immature?

For sure I think it was silly for Zelensky to not invite him. That was dumb. Zelensky's job is to save Ukraine, asap. Germany is the USA of Europe. You need something big, expensive and right now? Better get the Frankenfurters on your side. I thought it was very amateur of Zelensky. I understand the emotions but hes gotta think past that. Ive lived and worked in Germany; politeness, professionalism and cool-headedness are deep cultural characteristics for them, and they absolutely dont appreciate bad manners, excitableness and personal slights, especially in a business transaction. Especially then.

Zelensky getting personal means he didn't and doesn't "get" the Germans. For Ukrainians, this is a national war of survival, a moral crusade (I agree). For Germany, this is geopolitical business, transactional and must have mutual profit (Real Politik). Not understanding that reality, not being able to view from the German side, was a strategic failure. 

Insulting the German President, a fellow Head of State*, has increased German reluctance which just lengthens the war and leads directly to more dead Ukrainians. Zelensky will need to maneuver around that, or straight up apologize in some shape or form (The stress of war is a reasonable excuse).

Why add political and diplomatic friction to the success of your National Defense? Not smart.

 

*You'll notice I'm talking about the office of President, not the man, Steinmeier, who I personally feel is a human weasel flawed and compromised, yet was selected by the German electorate (via the Federal Convention) to represent Germany. But as said in Band of Brothers:

Especially if, gratingly, you need that two-legged rodent Politician to do something vital for you.

This exactly, thanks. Couldn't have said it better - as a German.

[Battlefront.com]

Just wanted to say that I treat Tweets from "OSINT Aggregator" with more salt than others.  I think he strays a bit from the facts than some of the others I follow.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just wanted to say that I treat Tweets from "OSINT Aggregator" with more salt than others.  I think he strays a bit from the facts than some of the others I follow.

Steve

I agree re the salt, but it's mainly because he seems to draw in part from Russian sources, who of course tend to overclaim, massively.

His editorial content is consistently .  And I also find his maps very good in terms of a proper scale for the actions in question, so long as you discount the 'Big Red Arrows'

Edited May 19, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 

 

Well now, that's something

As for the discussion about Ukraine's "unforced error" about President Steinmeier, I've kept that in my mind as one of the very few mistakes that Ukraine has made in the war thus far.  Politically, it was dumb.  I'm not even sure it did anything for domestic politics, which makes it even dumber (i.e. sometimes a dumb thing on the world stage is a smart thing on the home stage).  While for sure Germany deserves quite a bit of ire from Ukraine (see above about Schröder), insulting the head of state of a country you want help from is probably never a good idea.  Dragging him around Kiyv, politely, would have been vastly smarter.

That said, Zelensky's messaging overall has been just about the best I've seen in my lifetime.  This is an opinion shared by many, if not most, of the West.  So maybe he thought they had enough clout to be aggressive in this one case.  I don't think it worked.

And finally, I think this is the meme Huba was looking for: