How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

I remember back when the 'hot' thread was "Russian army underequipped?", there were certain folks who made much of the 'Ratnik' project. Turns out one of the key components of Ratnik - the commander's tablet - is simply a repackaged commercial tablet imported from Taiwan:

"the main part of it is commander's tablet. "Research and development works were carried out by dozens of Russian defense enterprises" as its creators claim"

"Which exactly "enterprise" "developed" this tablet you would ask? The battery is a clue:"

"It's 2012 Leica CS25 GNSS plus"

"It even had Leica serial numbers, but all labels are removed."

[Machor]

Ukrainians showing how it's done: Bridging the Donets:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

First time that I have heard of this South Korean sailor but I'm glad he's alive.

Also nice to see the CZ 805 BREN making its way into the right hands.

[sburke]

Convoy of Up to 1,000 Cars Leaves Ukrainian City of Mariupol (msn.com)

[Butschi]

On 5/11/2022 at 6:58 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Related to the discussion we've had on-and-off about how the Soviet Union's failure to "de-Sovietize" after it's collapse in 1990 directly led to crisis we are in now.  I know I've had many frustrating conversations with people (Russian and Western alike) that just do not understand how horrific the Soviet Union was (in particular under Stalin, but also before and after) and how bad it is that Russians were not forced to face the crimes of their forefathers like the Germans were.

Oddly enough, there was an OpEd piece in The Washington Post about this very topic.  It's behind a paywall, but here's the intro and (after the ellipse) the conclusion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/09/putin-nuremberg-style-soviet-trials/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F36cb5f0%2F62793770956121755a6ee36c%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F54%2F72%2F62793770956121755a6ee36c

Steve

I meant to comment on this a few days ago... it is really hard to stay up-to-date with this thread.

I'm no historian, just generally interested in this topic. I think you or the OpEd somewhat overestimate the impact the Nuremberg trials had on the general German population. I don't mean to diminish the importance of the trials. They were important in for the first time actually making the ruler of a country accountable for the crimes they commited. That was a powerful message to other rulers. They also made the crimes visible. However, they also allowed the common people to somewhat detach from all this. The top Nazis were convicted, the common people were rather superficially de-nazified and so the blame could be put on Hitler and his cronies who somehow demonically managed to seduce the people (which is still a theme that often repeated in many documentaries).

What's more, during the first few years, the Germans were much more busy generally surviving than facing their crimes. Afterwards, when the (West) German "Wirtschaftswunder" (economic miracle) kicked in, people didn't want to be bothered with the past and generally just didn't talk about the 3rd Reich. The reckoning came later when the following generation started asking what their parents had done.

Also, the indeed relatively thorough historical investigation of what happend during 1933-1945 alone did not make the Germans good democrats by itself. Apart from the fact that of course, the Allies did not actually give West Germany a choice, what really helped was that the people profited economically from being on this side of the Iron Curtain. They were actually better off after getting rid of the Nazis. The famous Marshall Plan, for instance, although by itself it had little real economic impact, the mere seeing everywhere "this was built with the help of the Marshall Plan" did a lot.

So, to get back on topic: I don't really think something akin to the Nuremberg trials would have changed that much after the fall of the Soviet Union. I guess that most Russians actually know the Soviet rulers weren't really nice guys. But in the end democracy and capitalism did not improve the lives of the common people. Putin did - whether by correlation or causation or just merely perception doesn't matter.

Maybe, as an afterthought: If we want to draw historical parallels... Maybe the more relevant part is how the Nazis came to power instead of how they ended. Democracy was weak during that time and politians cared more about there little power games than about the people. Then came the Great Depression which hit Germany extremely hard. Enter Hitler who blamed democracy and not only promissed improving the economic situation but actually did so after 1933 (again, it doesn't matter that he used plans drawn up by the previous administration and that Hitler could claim the effects the general recovery of the global economy had for himself).

[gnarly]

5 hours ago, akd said:

Larger version:

 

Last one right through open hatch.

Engine startup at 52 seconds? And then it reversed and turned perhaps a meter immediately prior to the last fatal impact?

Edited May 15, 2022 by gnarly

[OldSarge]

 

An interesting, albeit brief, look into the work that Bellingcat is doing to collect information about the war.

Edited May 15, 2022 by OldSarge

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, gnarly said:

Engine startup at 52 seconds? And then it moved perhaps a meter immediately prior to the last fatal impact?

Yah I saw the exhaust plume also. I was wondering why the drone kept dropping ordnance, then the damn thing moved! Brave driver. For about 3 meters. Then he was just part of nature.

The guy who runs off from the left side of the tank rus up into the woods, around a tree and finally collapses. 

Was the other guy under the tank?

[Kinophile]

Hah, I mumbled about the Tet offensive pulling the wool off the American public narrative of the war, and that the failed Bilhorivka crossing could function the same (or start the ball rolling) and then NYT says it better:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/15/world/europe/pro-russian-war-bloggers-kremlin.html

"A Russian military disaster estimated to leave 400 soldiers dead or wounded is piercing the Kremlin’s information bubble."

 

[OldSarge]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yah I saw the exhaust plume also. I was wondering why the drone kept dropping ordnance, then the damn thing moved! Brave driver. For about 3 meters. Then he was just part of nature.

The guy who runs off from the left side of the tank rus up into the woods, around a tree and finally collapses. 

Was the other guy under the tank?

Around 0:08 you can see two guys running away before the tank begins to move away.

[fireship4]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, I agree that's what is needed.  But for the most part what we're getting isn't that.  What I've seen is information that is outdated by days, "expert" opinions that aren't worth a damned, focusing on stuff that doesn't matter, or otherwise totally fumbling their jobs of getting good quality information over to their viewers in a timely fashion.

Not saying that the folks behind the desk are always doing a bad job and the ones in the field looking for burnt teddybears are always doing an excellent job.  What I'm saying is if I have 10 minutes of my day to learn something about a war I'm more likely going to get better information from someone on the ground than someone behind the desk.  At least that's the case with this war.

Oh, but one caveat.  At the beginning of the war there was a noticeable lack of journalists at the front.  I suspect it's because they didn't believe they'd live long enough to file a report.  The last month or two, by contrast, I've seen a lot of really good reporting.

Then again, I'm not watching TV.  I'm looking at YouTube (mostly) for the MSM reporting and selecting the ones that look like they aren't looking for burnt teddybears.  And even then I'm using it to supplement a wide range of non-MSM news sources.

Steve

I think I was a bit harsh on journalists, there is some good stuff mixed in there with the 'oh dearism' - stuff that just makes you say 'oh dear' without really understanding anything better (there's an Adam Curtis mini-doc about it online, to reveal one of my influences). 

However, I question to what extent it is useful for journalists to be at the front, if the point is to inform the public (not entertain or propagandise to them).  Surely that is the place where they know the least about what is going on overall, and rumours are probably rife.  In addition, being embedded with people with whom you share risks and rely on for protection and see the struggle and sacrifice of, you are hard-pressed to remain objective.  At least you're in with people who are deeply engaged with the war, so you get a better perspective than sitting in a coffee shop, but a large amount of what you can communicate is 'it's bad' and how people feel about stuff.  And video of things blowing up.

I am also not watching TV, and I think us 'online savvy' folks really should thank our lucky stars we can pick and choose our media.  It requires a discerning eye of course, plenty of rubbish out there if you go looking for it, from the things I hear at work, it might be a good thing.  The general population has been overworked to the detriment of their critical thinking and other skills a model member of society/renaissance man should value, either that or those ideas just aren't as widely shared as an intellectual bubble would have you believe.  The penetration of illogical conspiracy theories is deeper than I would have believed. 

Edited May 16, 2022 by fireship4

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hah, I mumbled about the Tet offensive pulling the wool off the American public narrative of the war,

For the NVA and the Vietcong it was a military failure but a political success. The result is journalist were embedded with armed forces. Misinformation is counter productive. 

[SeinfeldRules]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

I remember back when the 'hot' thread was "Russian army underequipped?", there were certain folks who made much of the 'Ratnik' project. Turns out one of the key components of Ratnik - the commander's tablet - is simply a repackaged commercial tablet imported from Taiwan:

"the main part of it is commander's tablet. "Research and development works were carried out by dozens of Russian defense enterprises" as its creators claim"

"Which exactly "enterprise" "developed" this tablet you would ask? The battery is a clue:"

"It's 2012 Leica CS25 GNSS plus"

"It even had Leica serial numbers, but all labels are removed."

I’m going to play Devil’s Advocate here, as a user of proprietary DOD hardware and software, there is absolutely something to be said for the simplicity and usability of using COTS systems. A lot of soldiers I’ve talked to would agree. It certainly seems to work for Ukrainians.

[dan/california]

The urgency of getting a DOD wide license for CM professional edition is hard to overstate....

[dan/california]

Best cartoon of the war so far!

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Machor said:

"the main part of it is commander's tablet. "Research and development works were carried out by dozens of Russian defense enterprises" as its creators claim"

Funny, but not all that surprising.  Cripes, they could at least had paid the manufacturer to make a more rugged case.  But then there would be less money for someone to pocket, so that explains it.

Eons ago in this thread we talked about how Russian manufacturers would have difficulty sourcing components for their military equipment.  Some argued that they could work around it.  Now we have an example in front of us that is 100% imported.  Who here thinks Russian manufacturing is suddenly up to the job of producing an entire tablet in Russia?  For that matter, who thinks US manufacturing is up for it?  Nope and not likely.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I meant to comment on this a few days ago... it is really hard to stay up-to-date with this thread.

It certainly is

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

So, to get back on topic: I don't really think something akin to the Nuremberg trials would have changed that much after the fall of the Soviet Union.

On its own, I agree with you.  This was only one thing that helped Germany straighten itself out.

Although imperfect, by-and-large Germans knew what happened and had to continually hear about it from their own government as well as their neighbors.  German archives were available for research to further understand the complexity and depth of the crimes.  The crimes of the Third Reich are taught to German school children, memorials to the crimes of the Third Reich's crimes are not hard to find, and monuments glorifying the Third Reich's memory are completely absent.  Laws explicitly designed to prevent NSDP from rising again, including banning symbology, was also very effective especially during the early days when there were many NSDP believers still alive and capable of causing trouble.

Aside from this domestic attempts to heal from the deep wounds the Germans, as a whole, have tried very hard to honestly repair their image and relationship with its neighbors.  In fact, one of the primary reasons cited by the German government for being so soft on Russian misbehavior is guilty memories.  The rest of the world educated itself on the horrors of the Third Reich.  This meant Germany had to prove itself worthy of being accepted back into world society.

None of this was practical with Russian in 1991 because they were not militarily defeated.  Russia needed to do this on their own and clearly it didn't happen because the Soviet Union never really went away for Russians.  Putting themselves on trial was never going to happen.

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I guess that most Russians actually know the Soviet rulers weren't really nice guys.

A little, maybe.  Certainly the intellectuals who are Western leaning understand, to some extent, how bad it was.  However, by and large they are not because they aren't taught it in school and the official Russian government position is that the Soviet Union was a good thing.

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

But in the end democracy and capitalism did not improve the lives of the common people. Putin did - whether by correlation or causation or just merely perception doesn't matter.

This is what Russians think, but it isn't true.  Russia never had a functional democracy.  The Soviet officials and black market criminals that ran the Soviet Union still run Russia today.  The only Western influence it allowed on its political and economic systems were those which the ruling elite felt were in their best interests.  Which meant a lot of the Western suggestions for reforms were only partially implemented.  Partial implementation of reforms seems to be a consistent national trait for Russia.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

However, I question to what extent it is useful for journalists to be at the front, if the point is to inform the public (not entertain or propagandise to them).  Surely that is the place where they know the least about what is going on overall, and rumours are probably rife.  In addition, being embedded with people with whom you share risks and rely on for protection and see the struggle and sacrifice of, you are hard-pressed to remain objective.  At least you're in with people who are deeply engaged with the war, so you get a better perspective than sitting in a coffee shop, but a large amount of what you can communicate is 'it's bad' and how people feel about stuff.  And video of things blowing up.

I think you are taking what I said to literally   Having reporters at the front is not necessary.  I've cited a number of excellent articles from a wide array of established media (MSM) and up-and-coming media.  I'd say most are not based on 1st hand reporting.

The point is that much of MSM has had this war wrong.  It's not a new thing either.  I remember MSM being sure the US was going to lose thousands, if not tens of thousands, of forces attacking Iraq in 1991.  Let's also not forget they got 2003 Iraq wrong too and seemed to forget all about Afghanistan for the most part.  And there was the whole Vietnam War that could be discussed at great length.

For whatever reason, MSM has some significant problems with finding the right people to ask the right questions to those who really know what is going on.  Yet within there was lots and lots of excellent work done, especially documenting things that actually happened (for example Bucha)

1 hour ago, fireship4 said:

The general population has been overworked to the detriment of their critical thinking and other skills a model member of society/renaissance man should value, either that or those ideas just aren't as widely shared as an intellectual bubble would have you believe.  The penetration of illogical conspiracy theories is deeper than I would have believed. 

Oh, don't even go there   The stuff people willingly believe and have zero interest in being challenged on is frightening.

Steve

[Phantom Captain]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not being European, or a TV viewer, I will confess the whole Eurovision thing has passed me by, so this piece by Aris Roussinos filled a few gaps.

It also mentions that ubiquitous song....

https://unherd.com/thepost/as-in-war-ukraine-summons-its-folk-roots-for-eurovision-victory/

 

Thank you!  I couldn't even find the name of it!  

[Phantom Captain]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

I think this is far superior.

Also nice to see Russia filling its MP gaps with sailors, they are ahead of shedule! Nazi Germany only did that by 1944/5  

Very nice!!  That's really a good one too!

[sross112]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Funny, but not all that surprising.  Cripes, they could at least had paid the manufacturer to make a more rugged case.  But then there would be less money for someone to pocket, so that explains it.

Eons ago in this thread we talked about how Russian manufacturers would have difficulty sourcing components for their military equipment.  Some argued that they could work around it.  Now we have an example in front of us that is 100% imported.  Who here thinks Russian manufacturing is suddenly up to the job of producing an entire tablet in Russia?  For that matter, who thinks US manufacturing is up for it?  Nope and not likely.

Steve

We have talked a lot about tactical lessons being learned in this war, but there are also strategic lessons to be learned and this is a very important one. 

NO, I AM NOT AN ISOLATIONIST. Just wanted to get that out there so that this isn't looked at as a political post.

Western powers need to be as self sufficient as possible in their critical infrastructure and manufacturing. Energy independence is very important. I know a lot of countries just can't get there but they should try to get as close as possible and definitely not rely on rogue regimes. Big lessons out there for the learning and especially for the US who has the ability to do those things. Sadly I doubt that most countries will truly learn and take this to heart. It will probably always be cheaper to source oil/gas from other countries but that doesn't mean that is the best or safest route. 

If the US can't even manufacture a tablet, how is it going to produce or maintain all it's fancy whiz-bang gear if Taiwan was suddenly not able to export microchips? If Taiwan is ever incorporated into China, Xi would have a huge economic lever to use against the world. 

Ah heck, I'm just probably paranoid. I'm sure everything will be just fine........

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

I’m going to play Devil’s Advocate here, as a user of proprietary DOD hardware and software, there is absolutely something to be said for the simplicity and usability of using COTS systems. A lot of soldiers I’ve talked to would agree.

COTS, when done right, is also massively less expensive.  However, the Russians were promoting these types of systems as if they were something more than they were.

I've repeated this story so many times so those who have read this can groan and skip to the next post

During Desert Shield there was an interview with a US Army supply guy (officer?  NCO?  I don't remember).  Behind him was a rack of the laptop of the day.  The reporter asked about them and he said they were purchased from Radio Shack by the unit and sent off with its soldiers.  The interview basically went back and forth with it being established it was better to have something in stock and ready than to fill out a bunch of paperwork and wait weeks for a replacement that cost 10x as much and really wasn't all that much better.  Yes, the DoD contracted version could work more reliably at 120F but it didn't work any better when it was misplaced.

2 hours ago, SeinfeldRules said:

It certainly seems to work for Ukrainians.

With limitations, of course.  The recent video posted here with Ukrainians finding out that Russians know how to eavesdrop on a common Chinese drone because it's not encrypted/hardened is an example of something that got a bunch of Ukrainians killed before they figured out some workarounds.

Believe me, I'm a huge fan of COTS.  I think the DoD loosening up Brigade budgets in 2003/2004 was one of the best things it ever did.  Soldiers had eye armor, radios that actually worked, binoculars, rugged gloves, and all kinds of things that worked well that would not have happened (at the time) if they had to go through official channels.  But it is best if a nation make rational choices about what to buy COTS and what to get customized instead of going COTS because that's their only option.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sross112 said:

We have talked a lot about tactical lessons being learned in this war, but there are also strategic lessons to be learned and this is a very important one. 

NO, I AM NOT AN ISOLATIONIST. Just wanted to get that out there so that this isn't looked at as a political post.

Western powers need to be as self sufficient as possible in their critical infrastructure and manufacturing. Energy independence is very important. I know a lot of countries just can't get there but they should try to get as close as possible and definitely not rely on rogue regimes. Big lessons out there for the learning and especially for the US who has the ability to do those things. Sadly I doubt that most countries will truly learn and take this to heart. It will probably always be cheaper to source oil/gas from other countries but that doesn't mean that is the best or safest route. 

If the US can't even manufacture a tablet, how is it going to produce or maintain all it's fancy whiz-bang gear if Taiwan was suddenly not able to export microchips? If Taiwan is ever incorporated into China, Xi would have a huge economic lever to use against the world. 

Ah heck, I'm just probably paranoid. I'm sure everything will be just fine........

 

Oh, it goes way beyond just the military stuff.  COVID supply chain disruptions have proven that relying upon foreign suppliers is risky even in peacetime with friendly nations.  Add unhealthy concentration of control over certain key products/services (oh, like baby formula for example!) and things get even worse.  Some will learn from what's gone on the last 2+ years, others won't.  Such is the uneven progress our species makes... even when something is obviously in the best interests of society, there's always someone working to slow it down or prevent it in order to maintain their power/profit from the existing system.

Steve

[Suleyman]

Let’s say after they fully capture Mariupol, they get a brigade+ a couple BTGs worth of units to back up their offensive. It would help them but I don’t see this war going too far from Donbas’ anymore. Maybe that’s their only focus now, get a major or minor victory in the region and call it a day. Learn lessons and rebuild their military. 

 

[dan/california]

Firmly in the rumor category, but at least some indication Putin might not be done digging yet.