How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

On a more serious note, actual METAR/TAF data for Sheremetyevo:

METAR TAF : Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow-Sheremetyevo Russia (allmetsat.com)

Broken at 2000' sounds like it should be workable, but the TCUs being a deal breaker tracks.

Edited May 9, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, G.I. Joe said:

On a more serious note, actual METAR/TAF data for Sheremetyevo:

METAR TAF : Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow-Sheremetyevo Russia (allmetsat.com)

So they could have flown?

[G.I. Joe]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So they could have flown?

Possibly, but the towering cumulus being a legitimate deal breaker is totally plausible.

EDIT: Upon reviewing it, there's a broken layer at 1600', that should be a dealbreaker too, just like the TCUs. So actually, it sounds like scrubbing the flypast for weather is legit.

Edited May 9, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[kraze]

11 hours ago, BornGinger said:

I'm pretty sure the Russians don't want to eradicate the whole Ukrainian population.

Dude their MP, a statesman, a person passing laws of all people only 2 days ago said Russia needs to exterminate 2 million Ukrainians. But duh, I mean, 2 million people aren't all Ukrainians right? And, hey, they just deported a million of Ukrainians to Siberia from occupied areas, but not killed them. Everything is fine.

[panzermartin]

Not even nuclear threats this time. So we are not in a pivotal moment of the war after all?  Putin doesn't look to be in the mood for anything grander. He casually read the speech pages. 

This didn't feel like a dictators speech urging to mobilize the nation. 

Also seems our media has been bombarding us with BS about Putin's and Shoigu's health. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by panzermartin

[G.I. Joe]

10 hours ago, potato4212 said:

The absolute state of the conscripts of Luganda and Donbobwae. I guess the Russians somehow ran out of aks already (How?) maybe they sold them all to African warlords and Collectors in the U.S (who are better armed than the guys fighting for Donbass and Luhansk. They dont even have optics on them, the poor bastards. 

Does anyone recognize the combats this guy is wearing? The fabric pattern looks exactly like 1980s vintage U.S. Woodland BDU to me, but the cut of the tunic does not look like U.S. Army issue...

[kraze]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

I admit, I have a sweet spot for dogs. Glad that this one named PATRON got what he deserved.

 

 

That dog has become quite a mascot here. And look, he now has his own wiki page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patron_(dog)

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Not even nuclear threats this time. So we are not in a pivotal moment of the war after all?  Putin doesn't look to be in the mood for anything grander. He casually read the speech pages. 

This didn't feel like a dictators speech urging to mobilize the nation. 

Also seems our media has been bombarding us with BS about Putin's and Shoigu's health. 

If you think about it Putin has little to gain from escalation. So better to stick to the special operation version, while continuing the war. 

[Huba]

The whole speech was as unescalatory as possible really. IMO the game now will be to hope for weariness on the side of West that could lose it's resolve to support Ukraine in reconquering all the lost territories. The ball is on our side now to make sure that this doesn't happen.

Edit: next thing to look for is speech from Biden:

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Huba

[beardiebloke]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder whether the final fall of Popasna matters all that much.  It's been destroyed and it seems UKR forces simply pulled back a short distance to their next line.  RU forces paid very high price for not much gain from what I can see.  And it took them weeks of fighting and huge artillery expenditure for a few kilometers of shredded ground.

I guess we'll know how much this matters over next few days. 

According to this guy at ~4:15, Popasna is on the way towards a major supply line to Severodonetsk; This Youtube channel seems pro-Ukrainian but a lot more downbeat about the situation than others commentators that I've come across.

 

[Hapless]

BINGO!



I didn't see Gerasimov, but could easily be that I just didn't recognise him

[ncc1701e]

Yes where is Gerasimov? Two rumors I heard on TV:
1. he was finally wounded (leg broken) during the Ukrainian strike done last time
2. he was dismissed on May 5th.
 

[LongLeftFlank]

56 minutes ago, Huba said:

The whole speech was as unescalatory as possible really. IMO the game now will be to hope for weariness on the side of West that could lose it's resolve to support Ukraine in reconquering all the lost territories. The ball is on our side now to make sure that this doesn't happen.

Edit: next thing to look for is speech from Biden:

 

On the more cynical side, based on the revolving door of the Western Great and Good (Angelina Jolie, Bono, etc.) all creating huge carbon footprints virtue signaling in Lviv, in addition to various pols hoping some Zelenskyy hero mojo rubs off on them, Ukraine is good to go for a bit.

I normally gag on all that stuff (in case you can't tell, lol), but well, I guess that's where Western Civ is these days.

Poland, of course, is pleased to have another biggish dog in the fight, and not to be hosting the latest European war at home for a change. So they're pretty much fully onside, I assume, along with the Balts.

It's the ones doing the bleeding who need to decide when and how to end it though.

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

33 minutes ago, Hapless said:

BINGO!



I didn't see Gerasimov, but could easily be that I just didn't recognise him

ROLF! +1

One of the funniest posts in this thread and that's saying something.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

On the more cynical side, based on the revolving door of the Western Great and Good (Angelina Jolie, Bono, etc.) all creating huge carbon footprints virtue signaling in Lviv, in addition to various pols hoping some Zelenskyy hero mojo rubs off on them, Ukraine is good to go for a bit.

I normally gag on all that stuff (in case you can't tell, lol), but well, I guess that's where Western Civ is these days.

Poland, of course, is pleased to have another biggish dog in the fight, and not to be hosting the latest European war at home for a change. So they're pretty much fully onside, I assume, along with the Balts.

It's the ones doing the bleeding who need to decide when and how to end it though.

Yes, the cynical quid pro quo perspective is actually really calming. US has hardly anything to loose and everything to gain from making sure Ukraine beats Russia to a pulp. Poland provides a staging area for said help. Everything else is redundant.

[LongLeftFlank]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yes, the cynical quid pro quo perspective is actually really calming. US has hardly anything to loose and everything to gain from making sure Ukraine beats Russia to a pulp. Poland provides a staging area for said help. Everything else is redundant.

Yes, and I suspect our Russian lurkers are all nodding their heads going, see, you openly admit that's the US game!

1. What they just don't get is that the West literally didn't *care* that much about Russia one way or another before it started trying to reassemble the USSR Humpty Dumpty.

2. The internet and globalisation has meant Russia is just another corrupt resource rich midsize country, with some good cut rate IT talent sprinkled in. There's several of those around the world now, and there are now 2 new actual world class civilisations for Yanqui Imperialismo to compete with (generally peacefully, we hope because they have nukes too. That club is no long exclusive).

3. Chinese designs on Siberia and that long border and the new Great Game in the central Stans all meant that the West had just as strong an interest in  bribing Russia into moving its way than to connive at its dismantlement and defanging. Putin seemed more than clever enough to play that game.

4.  And this is the bit Russians really can't seem to grasp. Other than the nukes, the West wasn't really afraid of Russia, even when it stomped Georgia in 2007. It hasn't really ever been viable as an economic competitor or a civilisational hub or anything else. Nobody is flocking there except a few Central Asians (and not any more, nice job).

(Lukashenko is about their last friend in the world now, Bog help them. Unless you count Imam TikTok. Hitler's Anti-Comintern pact had more brainpower -- Antonescu and Tiso, anyone? -- and the only smart one, Franco, sensibly stayed the hell out while sending his own Falangist wingnuts off to die)

5.  With its resources, Russia could have turned itself over time into a kind of Australia (with less cheerful drunks), but nope, it's closer to Papua New Guinea. The kakistocracy running the place from Moscow only knows how to loot, incompetently, not manage.

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

So for some more unsettling news.

It was already reported yesterday that Russians attempted to bridge Donets near Bilohorivka, and apparently succeeded and are moving equipment through it. Polish media report that governor of Luhansk oblast said that today will be decisive. Russians threaten the main road to Lysichansk and Severodonetsk. Hopefully the two tank brigades Ukrainians have in reserve will be able to smash the Russian bridghead and drown them in the river.

[Haiduk]

On 5/8/2022 at 4:07 AM, Huba said:

A little offtopic, but Zmiiny would literally translate to "Adder", not "Snake", am I right? In Polish it's "Żmija":

In Ukrainian "zmiya" is common name for all snakes. "Adder" means particular species, which in Ukrainian names "hadiuka"

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

They need warm bodies manning the front.  They went in with too few, they scraped together what little they could, and now they've run out of options.  Without enough men to keep the lines solid they'll not be able to hold ground.

Steve

A bit facetious but a body rich environment on the front lines is a target rich environment for all that lovely new artillery Ukraine has received. And you don't necessarily need VT fuses. MT work just fine too, and are super cheap in comparison to VT fuses. 

[Huba]

Russian ambassador in Poland had a bad day. I'm not sure I support such behavior at the cemetery, but it is certainly understandable why it happened:

 

[chuckdyke]

He will survive. 

[Machor]

2 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Does anyone recognize the combats this guy is wearing? The fabric pattern looks exactly like 1980s vintage U.S. Woodland BDU to me, but the cut of the tunic does not look like U.S. Army issue...

I too - quite literally - lost sleep over this. For beginners, Woodland pattern is omnipresent in the modern world, and could have been imported from anywhere: https://www.camopedia.org/index.php/Woodland

However, there seem to be two local candidates. The first one is the BDU of the Ukrainian Federal Border Guards: https://www.camopedia.org/index.php/Ukraine

The second one is the Russian MVD 'kirpichka' BDU: https://www.camopedia.org/index.php?title=Russia

At any rate, we're faced with the same question as the conscript's issued weapon: Why has he been issued a Mosin where Russia has ample supplies of AK-47/AKM, and why is he wearing an exotic BDU where there should be ample supplies of the non-digital Flora in Russia?

[DesertFox]

Errrm, what?

 

Surely totally unrelated to his recent demise...

Lukoil, a Russian Oil Company, Calls for an End to the Ukraine War - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm curious... does anybody know how many of these fast attack boats are available to Russia in the Black Sea region?  I assume quite a few, but haven't a clue.  Taking 4 out of action from a fleet of 50 is very different than 100.

Steve

Russia had in the Black Sea two very similar types of these fast atatck boats, designed on the base of Sweden CB90 boat (or maybe Russia even stolen information of this project and slightly changed design) 

So, they built two types - project 31160 Raptor class (in two variants V1 and V2), which positioned like patrol craft with landing capabilities and project 02510 BK-16 class, which positioned like landing craft with patrol capabilities. 

BK-16 class has better seaworthiness that Raptor

In the Black Sea Russia had 7 patrol Raptors and 9 landing BK-16 (4 of them belongs to Maritime units of Rosgvardia for security of Kerch bridge) 

Here is 02510 BK-16 (left) and 31160 Raptor V2 (right)

On the video when TB2 hit Russian boat (color filming fragment), you can see a writing on its portside. Only one boat of both classes in BSF has own name except letter-digital number - this was P-345 "Buyevlianin" 03160 Raptor V2 class boat 

Total we have evidences of 5 Raptor/BK-16 hit - four near Zmiinyi island and one near Mariupol (hit by Fagot ATGM). Also our General Staff claimed two such boats were sunk in first days of war during attempt of landing near Ochakiv and as RUMINT one boat blew up on the mine, when tried to land recon group east from Odesa

Edited May 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, TheVulture said:

I'm 90% sure that's the exact same location as in the video last week of the MLRS strike that nearly got Gerasimov and killed one of the Russian generals with a direct hit on the farmhouse. At least we can see here what the 'ground clutter' that was kind of visible in the first video is. 

You right, this was near Zabavne village N from Izium