How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

The ONLY rationale I can come up with for the Russian's inability to disperse rationally under endlessly repeated Ukrainian attacks on concentrated targets is that NOTHING happens once troops are out of sight of a company grade officer. It might even be a battalion level officer.  Keeping everyone close enough together that a major can walk around and boot people in the ^$#^ hourly must be absolutely necessary. The nothing getting done otherwise probably extends to complete intoxication, and desertion, not necessarily in that order. 

In addition to the now NORMAL daily loss of well over BTG per day, The Russian UAV losses have spiked enormously.  Is this because the Ukr have gotten better at something, or because the Russians are so desperate they are using them in ways that they are far more likely lose them.

whoa, that is yet another terrible day for RU.  7 MLRS?  I like that!  and 400 killed is a pretty bad day even by RU standards.  I wonder if any other artillery was lost, I hope so.

[c3k]

I much preferred this thread when it was discussing the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

[MSBoxer]

1 minute ago, c3k said:

I much preferred this thread when it was discussing the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Amen.  I have been skipping most of the posts on the last few pages.

[billbindc]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The world is not black and white.  While I GENERALLY am opposed to the destruction of historical monuments, there are times when the monuments need to go so that society can move on.  Or do you think Jews in modern Germany should have to walk by busts of Hitler and plaques of Swastikas every day?  Do you think people in countries repressed by the Soviets should have to have their limited public spaces taken up by monuments to their former oppressors or drive down roads named for foreigners who kept them repressed?  I sure as Hell do not.

Steve

This. 

For you folks who don't get this just imagine this scenario: say you get a pretty unjust ticket and you have to walk past a statue on the courthouse steps of a guy who owned your ancestors that is maintained by the jurisdiction you are going in to fight. I actually know someone who has had that experience in the United States. It still burns him years and year later.

My reaction was to imagine my father having to walk past the statue of the squalid English landlord who kicked my ancestors off his land when they were starving and couldn't pay their rack rents during the Famine in order to contest that ticket. Actually, I'm not sure I can imagine it. He'd want to blow it up. 

Edited May 8, 2022 by billbindc

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, c3k said:

I much preferred this thread when it was discussing the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Hey...so I think I asked this earlier without result: 

What is the RA doctrine for when shells start to fall on a concentration of tanks? It seems bizarre to me that they just seem to sit there in the target area and not attempt to disperse. I'd love to know (not a vet so I'm not au fait with this stuff).

[panzermartin]

54 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are forgetting that Russia's Army was responsible for mass murder before the Germans invaded in 1941.  They engaged in mass murder during the war, they engaged in mass murder after the war.  They supported a regime that killed more people than Nazi Germany did.  They were an instrument of oppression over hundreds of millions of people over almost 50 years.  They were involved in exporting war to other countries and aiding them in their own domestic mass murders and destruction.  Can't explain that way with your "eye for an eye" logic.

Not that it really matters.  Both Nazi Germany and Soviet Union were mass scale murder and misery machines.  But unlike the Germans, Russians haven't accepted that fact.

Steve

I'm not denying these facts.

All I wanted to defend is in the context of WW2. There is some re writing of history emerging along with the Ukraine War, which I find worrying. It's almost like saying that no matter what side won, the World would be the same. Like If Nazis and USSR were equal evil then we would feel as comfortable if Nazis had won which is not the case . As I said the free powers of the World sided with USSR, but they actually had a choice to support Hitler against the "evil commies" . But they didn't. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, keas66 said:

So  I don't claim to be an expert in these matters but I did get the impression from alternate readings of American History that things were not so cut and dry as you describe   ( ie A Peoples History  , by Howard Zinn )  . I don't think there was quite as much money to be made in either of Australia or New Zealand back in the foundation of both those places to warrant the  locals getting  feisty  about paying taxes to the home land - No  defenses to be paid for against the Rampaging French for instance .

We are really straying off topic here, but as I said above... history is messy.  It is also open to interpretation.  There are those who view Zinn's work as more fiction than fact.  It's been too long since I delved into his work, so I can't really comment on it myself.  However, it is very true that the American Revolution has many layers of motivations to it and many are not flattering at all.  It is also correct to state that the North was not all that much less racist than the South at the time of the AWC, so that is a rather messy thing to talk about as well.  However, there are certain truths in both which do stand up even after all the messy details are taken into consideration.  The American Revolution was predominantly about the right to self determination and the American Civil War about slavery (North wanting to get rid of it, South wanting to keep it).

After the mess that the American Revolution caused the British crown, they were forced to accommodate requests for more autonomy from it's other (white) colonies or risk having them rise up as the Americans did.  This eventually evolved into full autonomy without a shot being fired.  Again, kudos to the British crown for being pragmatic about it.  Had Russia done the same none of us would be in the mess the world is dealing with today.

Steve

[Huba]

30 minutes ago, sross112 said:

 

I think it does a couple things. Like you said, it alleviates the fear of a full mobilization as that doesn't make a difference in this modern conflict right away and he points out what we've said before that they don't have the equipment in storage to properly kit it out. So he logically says that they need to figure out how to produce modern competitive platforms that can defeat the NATO standard stuff coming in. As we have discussed here that will take a long time for them to figure out how to do that. 

So this says stalemate. Basically the beginning of a new Cold War. Which makes sense. Putin and the Kremlin are realizing the RA is beat and isn't going to be able to do much more offensively. I think that they still think they can hold on to most of what they have taken, but that is also probably a pipe dream. Even if they can't, they don't have to surrender or go to the negotiating table. They know that Ukraine and the west aren't going to drive on Moscow. Ukraine at the most will clear her land but she won't invade. 

The narrative for the Kremlin is simple. They had to invade to free the Russian people living under oppression and tyranny and destroy the UA. They can claim that they completed this and then NATO came in with all it's might and attacked them. After a fierce patriotic struggle they were able to stop the NATO invasion at the border and no Russian lands were lost. This settles into a 38th Parallel DMZ type situation along the border and Putin plays the same game as Kim.

Expand the military and have really big numbers of stuff that can't compete but looks good on paper. Russia does have the people and resources to build their own industrial base and supply itself, however they will technologically never be able to compete with the west. They will be coming from too far behind and not have access to the cutting edge developments in a quick enough time frame to stay abreast. They become the big paper bear but that doesn't matter as long as they stick to the defending the motherland narrative. It becomes an eternal conflict of us vs them and keeps the status quo in power. 

It is really sad for the people of Russia as the same path as Kim leads to the same results as Kim. The other news comment about needing a new Beria coincides with this as the Kremlin will need a new gulag archipelago to suppress and oppress the people who will not want to go along with the ride to hell. All this leads back to if the Russian people want a better Russia they are going to have to change it themselves but it looks like their window to act is going to get smaller and smaller if the Kremlin starts swinging back to the Beria days. 

That's a nice analysis, if I was to bet, this more or less is the outcome I expect. Question is, will Russia go through the phase of collapse, or will transit smoothly into the DPRK bis? Purely wishfull thinking at this point, but I really hope that some of the ex-Soviet states will be able to break out of the Russian yoke before the dust settles.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

All I wanted to defend is in the context of WW2. There is some re writing of history emerging along with the Ukraine War, which I find worrying. It's almost like saying that no matter what side won, the World would be the same. Like If Nazis and USSR were equal evil then we would feel as comfortable if Nazis had won which is not the case . As I said the free powers of the World sided with USSR, but they actually had a choice to support Hitler against the "evil commies" . But they didn't. 

A large portion of Ukraine never, ever accepted the Red Army's advance in 1944 as "liberation".  It even fought against the Red Army for nearly 10 years because of that.  So it's not so much that Ukrainians are rewriting Ukrainian history as they are unwriting the Soviet imposed history.

Steve

[asurob]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I'm not denying these facts.

All I wanted to defend is in the context of WW2. There is some re writing of history emerging along with the Ukraine War, which I find worrying. It's almost like saying that no matter what side won, the World would be the same. Like If Nazis and USSR were equal evil then we would feel as comfortable if Nazis had won which is not the case . As I said the free powers of the World sided with USSR, but they actually had a choice to support Hitler against the "evil commies" . But they didn't. 

The Soviets and the Nazis were equal evil.  In case you have forgotten, and apparently you have, they were invading their neighbors prior to joining the allies, they were purging people within their borders they deemed unworthy of life, and they weren't exactly in a hurry to liberate places like Poland so the Nazis could do their work for them.  Oh and there is the small matter of they joined hands with the Nazis in their first invasion of Poland.  I'm not even getting into the topic of their advance across Germany and the absolute reprehensible things they did there.

The west supported the commies war against the Nazis because it was an enemy of my enemy thing not because we were pals with the Soviets.  

So yeah...Evil.

[Huba]

A great shot of Javelin, visible across it's full flight path, in top attack mode:

 

[Aragorn2002]

On 5/7/2022 at 1:57 AM, panzermartin said:

I swear if I ever read again that the Red army was equally evil with the SS and the Wehrmacht that made my father starve as a kid and his friends getting killed while painting slogans on walls, I'm going to delete my account here. 

Oath breaker.

Time to cool down, gentlemen. 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[quakerparrot67]

1 hour ago, Grey_Fox said:

Why would you fight so hard to keep monuments for people who fought for the right to keep other people as slaves?

thank you, g.f., - you hit it right on the head.  lets see if the 'preserving history at all cost' crew would be happy with replacing confederate statues and monuments with plaques stating the plain truth- 'in this place there was a statue honoring men who betrayed their country  for the right  to own people as property..   This was the grand cause of the confederacy'   somehow i dont think they'd except that either. some sides in some wars deserve no  commemeration or honor- their 'cause'  cost them that right, sorry.

 

cheerts,

rob

 

[panzermartin]

19 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Oath breaker.

It's still the weekend. From tomorrow I'm preparing my paperwork to depart . It is still difficult for me after 20 years of very engaging threads, modding and gaming. Anyway, in case of WW3 and the fall of civilization we might have to say goodbye afterall. 

In that case, I want to thank BFC for their amazing games. When gaming with friends we still recall tiny details of vast CM battles, and we all agree it was the finest moment of our war gaming (and probably pc gaming in general )

Sadly, my most close CM buddy Spiros who was lurking here and playing in some ladders, passed away unexpectedly. This game was a way to remember him. Cheers "Mein General" ! 

 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

It's still the weekend. From tomorrow I'm preparing my paperwork to depart . It is still difficult for me after 20 years of very engaging threads, modding and gaming. Anyway, in case of WW3 and the fall of civilization we might have to say goodbye afterall. 

In that case, I want to thank BFC for their amazing games. When gaming with friends we still recall tiny details of vast CM battles, and we all agree it was the finest moment of our war gaming (and probably pc gaming in general )

Sadly, my most close CM buddy Spiros who was lurking here and playing in some ladders, passed away unexpectedly. This game was a way to remember him. Cheers "Mein General" ! 

 

 

 

Just kidding of course. Stay around, but keep your shirt on. As the Romans already used to say: there are as many opinions as there are heads. 

That's also freedom.

Sorry to hear about your friend. May he rest in peace.

Edited May 8, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Bearstronaut]

My god if those casualty figures are accurate then Russia will reach US Korean War casualties before the summer. That took more than three years to get that high even with the meatgrinders at Taejon, the Naktong River, and Chosin. 

Edited May 8, 2022 by Bearstronaut

[db_zero]

Deleted 

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by db_zero

[LongLeftFlank]

the General Forum just migrated here.

[Huba]

So, the May 9th is upon us, Putin will give his speech 12 hours from now and announce what's going to happen next from the Russian side. We have discussed all the possibilities quite exhaustively. Assumingno major new developments in next few hours, what are your bets on what Putin is going to say?

My take:

- announces Kherson Republic

- war to end as soon as liberating Donbas is finished (every day now, but it will take a great effort...)

- no mobilization, at least not general one

- Russia must be ready for war with NATO, nuclear sabre rattling

Edited May 8, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

Just had a long conversation with a DC friend who is a Russian emigre and quite knowledgeable about Putin and his regime. She asked me a great question after I semi-convinced her that Russia just doesn't have the horses to win. 

It was "How do you see this ending?". By that, she didn't mean militarily but rather politically (via the military outcome of course). My answer was that it ends in a frozen conflict but this time, the frozen conflict acts to Russia's great detriment:  i.e. an Afghanistan it's not possible to pull out of and directly on the borderlands of the central core of the Russian state. 

I'd be curious to hear how you gentlemen see it going. 

[db_zero]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

the General Forum just migrated here.

I think you’re right…time for all of us to agree to drop the ACW topic.

[danfrodo]

so.............maps?  who's found updated maps?  I am dying to see if there's any progress.

[TheVulture]

 

 

[poesel]

I deeply apologize for bringing this topic into this forum. I had the Tiergarten monument and one Marx/Lenin bust in East-Berlin that had survived the reunification in mind.

I know about the discussion in the US but hadn't thought about it in that moment.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Question is, will Russia go through the phase of collapse, or will transit smoothly into the DPRK bis? Purely wishfull thinking at this point, but I really hope that some of the ex-Soviet states will be able to break out of the Russian yoke before the dust settles.

Yes I agree that is the big question. How do the people react? I think there are two segments of the Russian Federation that will hold the ball in their hands; the young/open-minded/want to be more western types and the "minorities". I think the minorities are the biggest threat and they could also cause a domino effect not only in the other minority states but could be a catalyst for the non-slavophile/super-race/ultranationalist wannabe Soviets again crowd. 

There has to be a lot of "rebels" in Chechnya and Georgia and other places watching this war very closely and looking at their odds of success increasing every day with the losses to the RA. Especially the gutting of the VDV and other units that were used heavily for oppression. Seems there has to be a point when they decide their chances for independence are significantly greater than 3 months ago. I don't think their chance of success has peaked yet but it will and then at some point the chances will start to lower again. Hopefully somewhere in that bell curve they will pull the trigger.

If a couple rebellions would kick off while the RA is still heavily engaged and has all it's resources committed in Ukraine it would be horribly destabilizing for the Kremlin. The reports say most of the RA comes from the poorer non-Russian states so if those states were to rebel what does that do to the RA? If nothing else it cuts off their primary source of politically safe conscripts. This results in having to conscript heavily from actual Russian areas. Which in turn causes more destabilization as it seems most Russians are willing to fight to the last Uzbek but aren't lining up at the recruiting stations to fill the billets themselves. It also immediately changes the view of the people in those Russian areas which undermines the ability of the Kremlin to continue it's lies and propaganda. Which further, well, you see the slippery slope that the internal problems could quickly spiral into. 

So that brings us back to Beria. I don't think Putin or the Kremlin are always stupid. They might be very stupid in their decision to invade Ukraine but they seem to be pretty politically astute when it comes to managing to stay in power. They have to recognize these same possibilities and therefore are looking to what worked for Putin's hero Stalin. Their only chance to stay in power if anything goes sideways is a crushing state apparatus the likes of which the Soviets had in their early years. Probably be even more important now since there are quite a few Russians that have had a taste of the good life and won't happily go back to the Soviet era bread lines.

The fate of their nation is in the hands of the people, like all other nations. We'll have to wait and see if the Russian people decide they are ready for something new or not.