How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[AlsatianFelix]

3 hours ago, akd said:

That’s a still from the “video” posted above, but looks odd to me.   How would the drone’s position relative to the ship change that quickly at the distance the image quality implies?  I think it is heavily post-processed footage from Arma or DCS.

I had hopped for this but twitter posted footage of a US Marine targeting exercise on the decommissioned USS Ingraham. Ship profile, fire, smoke and angle of video very very similar to the one being posted as the Russian frigate.

Edited May 6, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[FancyCat]

On one hand, had the full scale invasion been successful, the world would be getting a reminder at how brilliant Putin was for undertaking a action no one in the West expected to occur. On the other hand, his gamble has taken the other route, the destruction of his military, the loss of immense amount of prestige and he looks more closer to his fear of a broken Russia than ever before.

What makes me think he lost his touch, his ability to come out on top is the fact that once the gamble failed he didn't immediately recover and regroup and cut his losses. I also think had he done the middle option of merely invading he Donbas, the Western backlash, the Ukrainian unity, and the glaring Russian miscalculations would have been minimized.

That he opted into pushing into a action that mauled some of the most elite units of the Russian military and now forces him to consider mobilization is undoubtedly a huge mistake. One he could have backed away after beginning it.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

It's less about how Russia felt about being constantly blamed for things like the Clinton campaign manufactured collusion hoax (now being prosecuted by Special Counsel Durham) 

Don't count your chickens

Durham prosecution faces hurdles in D.C. court - POLITICO

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Come now, I hate to wade into this, but Trump literally requested Zelensky to give him political dirt or threatened future cooperation with the United States, he stated many times NATO isn't useful and the U.S should withdraw from NATO.

I strongly fail to see how Putin would react to Trump vs Biden concerning Ukraine in any difference concerning the recent invasion.

Are you saying Putin would have been warned away from invading Ukraine? By what, pray tell would have Trump done differently than Biden?

 

Anyway, I'm sure Imperial Russia looks great to Russia but to Ukrainians, maybe not?

 

just ignore him, he clearly has no idea what he's talking about and has a head full of propaganda.  I've seen enough that I hit the ignore button.  If I want to see that kind of stuff I can just go straight to qanon & cut out the middleman.

 

[Haiduk]

The map of fires - looks like very hot west to Izium

Ukr troops after attack on Russian convoy on Izium axis. Russians fled

Other direction, probably NE of Kharkiv, captured soldiers, unknown who exactly, maybe LPR conscripts, but also could be LPR "regulars" or even Russians (but looks too poor) - I can't recall that armor was on armament of their conscript foot regimens.

Captured armor with looted sport medal

Looted goods

[poesel]

51 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Pfft, whatever. It's a monument to one of the most genocidal regimes the world has seen. The sooner it's torn down the better. 

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Judging the past with current morale standards is necessary to understanding. But removing the offending statues means that this discussion will never happen again and the atrocities will be forgotten.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Judging the past with current morale standards is necessary to understanding. But removing the offending statues means that this discussion will never happen again and the atrocities will be forgotten.

OTOH putting up monuments is a political statement in itself, and often a very violent one (new Lening statue in Kherson for example). Tearing them down is just a part of the discourse.

Edit: in case of this particular monument, you won't tell me that it's purpose was the remembrance of fallen soldiers - for this you put up monuments in your own country. This monument's purpose was to make sure that Germans never forget who beat them and cause of that, who's the boss now (if that was rightful at the time is another topic entirely) - basically a symbolic violence of winner against loser.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Judging the past with current morale standards is necessary to understanding. But removing the offending statues means that this discussion will never happen again and the atrocities will be forgotten.

I think I might look at monuments a little differently.  Monuments are to honor a person or time for some reason.  History is just history.  If someone put up a statue of Hitler and said "why are you taking that down, it's for history", no one would agree.  Well, almost no one. 

Monuments should, of course, be historically accurate, but the are intended for remembrance of some sacrifice or great actions or some tragedy.  History museums can have statues of the scoundrels but these are not monuments.

Got to be quite a conflicting set of thoughts & emotions for a soviet WW2 memorial in Ukraine.

[JonS]

19 minutes ago, poesel said:

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Leaving statues and monuments is a daily act of violence against the affected communities. Just like the statue of Saddam in Bahgdad and the various statues of Stalin and Lenin in the former Soviet bloc, the statues of Colston and all the traitorous US generals can FRO. 

Edit: if you are relying on statues and memorials to provide an education in history, well... /rolleyes

Edited May 6, 2022 by JonS

[womble]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Now at the end of this and reviewing it, I feel that I should have deleted this or apologize for it.  

I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.   

Very glad you posted. Apologies would be inappropriate, IMO. Hope it helped.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Cederic said:

No. That is a disgrace.

I've been to that war memorial - back when it was in East Berlin, and since reunification. I've also lived by a German war cemetery on the Siegfried Line, seen countless British war cemeteries, visited Verdun and seen war memorials from all sides from literally dozens of wars on several continents.

Do not ****ing disrespect war memorials.

Yes this is s**t sorry. 

[Huba]

In Warsaw, for many decades the biggest building by far was the Palace of Culture and Arts - a "gift" from USSR, meant as symbol of Soviet rule. We didn't tear it down cause it would be silly financially, and with time it lost it's grim symbolic meaning (to most people). But if instead of the office building, there  was a huge Stalin statue, it would be demolished without blinking in 1989 at the latest.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Seems at least one of the men seen in the video of the "surviving" crew of Moskva has permanently ****ed off according to his family:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-moskva-missing-sailor-photogeaph/31838018.html

[FancyCat]

What's the timeline for when a monument becomes legitimate? Does the Lenin statue raised in Kherson automatically get to stay as virtue of it being a monument? Is it 5 years, 10 years, 50 years?

Remember history by all means, but if you consider the raising of the Lenin statue by Russia in Kherson to be fine to be torn down once Ukraine retakes it, ask yourself if it was remembance that caused the statue to be raised in the first place or victory?

[Kraft]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

Tearing down monuments is trying to erase history. It is more important to make sure that those who see these monuments know what or whom those represent.

Judging the past with current morale standards is necessary to understanding. But removing the offending statues means that this discussion will never happen again and the atrocities will be forgotten.

I dont think these monuments have any resemblence of insight. Its not a memorial to the victims of crimes, it is a celebration of the perpetrators. See the Lenin statues being put up right now in occupied territory.

Would you leave Hitler monuments up so people can google his name and discuss the finer points of his politics? No. You tear that down and put a memorial to his victims on the same ground..

Now what if people TODAY would put up Hitler monuments, would that trigger some alarm bells?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Kraft

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I dont think these monuments have any resemblence of insight. Its not a memorial to the victims of crimes, it is a celebration of the perpetrators. Or would you leave Hitler monuments up just so people can google his name and discuss the finer points of his politics? No. You tear that down and put a memorial to his victims on the same ground..

Sometimes I see posts and say "dang, wish I woulda said what I said be like what he said".  So, well said.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

Surely it's a long process. LongLeftFlank brightly described it here. Mix of bribing elites, soft power, sabotage, new proxy wars. It will work someday. NATO was slowly, but persistently moving to the East, incorporating more and more economics, like steamroller. Some politicians tried to stop it and were overthrown with ease. Russia is bigger than other countries, but as LongLeftFlank said, it weakens. At some point new intervention, like in 1918, is possible. Not open invasion, but some sort of proxy war, using bribed local elites, during political crisis. Nothing impossible.

This is quite possible while Russia has this type of economic system. If it won't be changed, country will fall. It's ironic that you don't like Putin, but to throw off Russia from the table you need him to stay. You are a bit too optimistic (№7,8 - really?), but long term trend is correct. 

Yugoslavia broke the previous generation. They were really pro-western, like Ukrainians now days. Bombing of Belgrad was like cold shower. "Are we the next?" Obvious parallels, Kosowo and Chechnya.

Well, umm, thanks, I think....

Brother, I guess I've ended up as your last friend on here. It is a gaming forum and I cut you some slack personally as a good contributor to the community. But you are just living in a looking glass world right now, defending something that is just not worth defending.  I mean Russia.

As a 'leftist', you need to be aware that your country -- Mother Russia or the Last Hope of Socialism or Christianity or Whiteness or whatever you call it -- is simply nothing special in the world today as a polity, a gene pool or a civilisation.

(Neither is mine, btw).

Chess is a spectator sport in Russia, fine (so's binge drinking). And smart work keeping pace with global Yankeedom on the Bomb and space race and all. But today, South Asian kids are lapping Russians (and Americans and Germans and everyone else except maybe Koreans) in the quants that matter. And they'll move anywhere to seek good profitable work, and mainly stay sober.

So forget Third Rome, Pushkin, your Great Russian Soul, the Brandenburg Gate and all that other baggage. There are no Exceptional Nations. No master races. No orcs either, just humans behaving badly. Or in other times, just trying to make their way in the world.

So, grok this please.  It is a GOOD THING that Russia as we know it today is devolving, maybe even breaking up entirely. Good for its neighbours, good for its non-Slavic minorities and, especially, good for Russians themselves.

A whole world opens up for you all, at the crossroads of the 'Asia century' (which is already into its fourth decade, btw -- I count from 1991) once you get Moscow's boot off your necks.

The future isn't slavery. Or if it kind of is in your particular belief system, then it's the same treadmill the average American is looking at now. And on the flip side, as a fluent English speaker with good quants you stand as good a chance of becoming one of the smug global master "PMC" class as anyone else on our planet. 

.... Or you can collectively sit in a cafe and ramble on about some sinister cabal robbing you (and vaguely threatening to burn the place to the ground if you can't have things your way). While each year more diligent and less prideful peoples grab the new world with both hands and leave you behind.

[/rant]

[danfrodo]

going back to Ukraine -- Haiduk's excellent and informative post above (fires around Izyum, video of destroyed RU column) is a nice indicator that UKR is taking ground.  Instead of drone video behind enemy lines or in no man's land, it's UKR troops destroying RU column and owning the ground.  And anecdote of which I hope many similar are on the way.

[panzermartin]

Guys you are being very short sighted sorry, cruising along with the shallow cancel culture. Here we have german paratroopers cemetery in Crete, German soldiers cemetery in Attica, Turkish monuments, venetian, franks monuments, all the freaking occupiers that walked this earth. And we respect all that no matter what, you vandals. 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by panzermartin

[Huba]

Just now, danfrodo said:

going back to Ukraine -- Haiduk's excellent and informative post above (fires around Izyum, video of destroyed RU column) is a nice indicator that UKR is taking ground.  Instead of drone video behind enemy lines or in no man's land, it's UKR troops destroying RU column and owning the ground.  And anecdote of which I hope many similar are on the way.

That's a good point - let's not forget that UA General Staff announced counteroffensive in Kharkhiv( which we see is going great) and Izyum regions too. Now about the second one we didn't hear anything yet from UA side, I assume for OPSEC reasons, but it looks like it's getting hot there too.

In general I think we all see that the tension before the 9th of May is rising and everybody want's to swing the symbolic advantage his side - and it seems that Ukraine is getting an upper hand here, not the least thanks to the brave defenders of Azovstal, who just keep on delivering way beyound what was expected of them.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, c3k said:

Rough count, about 32 impacts. One was a direct hit. Reference the hit on the Russian HQ north of Izyum, the odds given of hitting the HQ building (or, the assumed HQ building) by random chance was given as 2 or 3%. Or so I remember it.  The argument was that it had to be a guided weapon to hit that building.

Looking at the above video, what are the odds of a direct hit on the launcher? Yet, that's what occurred...

Not really   The one rocket in this video that lit up the launcher impacted probably 20m away.  The video of the HQ hit dropped it right onto the general's lap.

Steve

[sross112]

This is a very interesting image put up by @Haiduk. That mass of fires is in an area that the RA has occupied for several weeks. It is also in the area opposite where the 81st AB Brigade has been cited as operating. There was reference that some of the M777's were deployed to this brigade first. Coincidence or are the new guns giving the RA rear area a shellacking?

 

Also, apparently Ukraine also has the best holidays. Today is Infantry Day!! So happy Infantry Day to all those serving or that have served in that magnificent branch of the world's militaries!!

 

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Guys you are being very short sighted sorry, cruising along with the shallow cancel culture. Here we have german paratroopers cemetery in Crete, German soldiers cemetery in Attica, Turkish monuments, venetian, franks monuments, all the freaking occupiers that walked this earth. And we respect all that no matter what, you vandals. 

 

But there's quite a difference between cemetery and monument, don't you think? The example of Hitler statues is actually great here, you wouldn't allow it to stand anywehere, no way, right? Tearing down monuments of your (perceived) opressors is only natural and healthy.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Guys you are being very short sighted sorry, cruising along with the shallow cancel culture. Here we have german paratroopers cemetery in Crete, German soldiers cemetery in Attica, Turkish monuments, venetian, franks monuments, all the freaking occupiers that walked this earth. And we respect all that no matter what, you vandals. 

 

I hear what you are saying but we're getting kinda semantic and black and white in what is a gray area.  Is a cemetery a monument?  Or is it simply a gravesite?  Or is it a memorial?  Does it honor or commemorate the actions of the person or the tragedy of their death in war? 

Some of these things are easy: Stalin statue in Ukraine is definitely out.  Hitler statue in Tel Aviv definintely out.  Stuff constructed by soviet state in Ukraine --well, USSR killed more Ukrainians that it did german soldiers I do believe, so kinda tough on that score. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

About the monuments thing... they do not represent a historical past, they represent a glorification of a particular aspect of it.  Some monuments are intended to memorialize true victims of some historical act, others are monuments intended to continue the domination of victims from the past well into the future.  This is the history of Confederate monuments in the US.  They were put there to show African Americans that even though the South lost the war, they didn't lose their domination over them.

For the most part I think important monuments to past ill-deeds should be peacefully removed and relocated.  Take them from inappropriate places of prominence and respect because they do not deserve to be there.  Instead, put them in their proper context like a museum dedicated to telling the truth about what those monuments really stand for.

If historical monuments are destroyed, I think it is best to take the components and create new monuments that create a counter message.  Melt down all the busts of Stalin and create a monument to his victims.  To me this doesn't "destroy history", it instead keeps it alive in a more appropriate way.

Steve