How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, theFrizz said:

 

 

As a younger man I might have agreed, but I've seen too much crap over the last decade or so to keep giving the Russians a free pass for their vacations. 

I think I spotted another dead head.....

[theFrizz]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think I spotted another dead head.....

Oh I thought this was the new space force logo... 

[chuckdyke]

Russia sees its special military operation as a continuation of the second world war. Ukraine has broken away from the fold and needs to be reunited. Like a jealous religious dad who doesn't want to see his daughter eloping with an atheist. His attitude with the Russian orthodox church is a pointer. Never mind his past as a KGB Colonel whose bosses once called it opium for the people. He fights the last war, and it is the reason he is losing. 

[akd]

 

Presumably these are all the ingredients needed to grow a new leg in Russia.

Edited May 6, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

Consistency...  

Central African Republic: Russian-linked forces 'tortured' and 'executed' civilians in Central African Republic since 2019, HRW says (msn.com)

[sburke]

A Russian official complained on Thursday that Western intelligence and arms deliveries are keeping the nation's war with Ukraine going.

Russian Official Complains West Aiding Ukraine is Keeping War Going (msn.com)

Yeah, sucks to be you guys doesn't it.

While speaking to reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Western intelligence and the ongoing delivery of weapons to Ukraine "do not contribute to the quick completion of the (Russian) operation, but at the same time are not capable of hindering the achievement of the goals set,"

Now if they could just decide what the hell those goals are now that are achievable...

Edited May 6, 2022 by sburke

[Harmon Rabb]

36 minutes ago, akd said:

 

Presumably these are all the ingredients needed to grow a new leg in Russia.

This young man will be a cripple for the rest of his life because of a war that Putin started and he is holding up a sign supporting United Russia, Putin's political party.

Everything about this photograph is just depressing.

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/5/2022 at 7:13 AM, db_zero said:

Don't want to rehash what already been said. Look at the current and future demographics for China and you'll see a nation that's headed towards serious problems. A massive aging population and decline in birth rates.

China is not Russia. Russia is an exporter of oil and natural gas. China must import both in large quantities. Their economy would come to a grinding halt if that was disrupted.

China didn't steal the US manufacturing industry. US and multinational corporations willingly moved the manufacturing base to China to take advantage of cheap labor on a massive scale. The work is grinding, the pay is ridiculously low and the conditions are about a step or 2 above exploitative. Profits was the motive.

Even if we wanted to the US could never create the sort of manufacturing scale that exists in China and there is no way Americans would be willing to work for the same low wages or conditions that Chinese peasants migrating from the rural area are willing to endure.

If you think inflation is bad now, just imagine what it would be if the manufacturing was being done in America with the wages and benefits America workers would demand. That cost would get passed down.

People talk about Russian propaganda. America has its own form of propaganda. Its called corporate media and politics. American media has changed over the years. Its now all about money. Stating boring facts doesn't sell. Creating outrage does. Same is true for social media.

The politicians who are concerned about getting re-elected and funding their campaigns are all to aware of the power of manufactured outrage. Its sells, it generates funding and its far more effective than just sticking to facts. The American public has a very short attention span, by and large they are not going to pay attention to complex facts, nuance and complex details. Add to that all the massive gerrymandering going on it little cause for optimism.

China is a problem. It's not just Taiwan or the treatment of Muslims, but the recent events in Hong Kong is cause for concern. Like Putin and his cronies the CCP is concerned about staying in power. Like Putin the internal security apparatus and forces behind it is massive. It has to be. China is composed of many ethnic groups and things could get out of hand quickly.

The US and China for better or worse have a mutually dependent relationship in-spite of the rhetoric. Much of the current economic issues in the US is related to the Covid lockdowns in China and the resulting disruption in the supply chain.

China is massively dependent on exports. If that gets cut their economy will collapse. They are trying to move away from that model, but China isn't there and if you look at the projected demographic trends in China, the future doesn't look good.

How the US and the West manages the complex relationship with China will determine what happens. China has seen the unified West response to Russia's actions and knows any similar response to any perceived hostile actions by China could lead to sanctions that would destroy their economy in short order. China is more vulnerable to economic sanctions that Russia.

Like China its also going to be a challenge for America and the west to manage Russia, Ukraine and Europe if and when the conflict ends. Its easy now. America and the west just sends money and weapons to Ukraine and the Ukrainians kill Russians by the bushel.

Managing the peace could end up being the real challenge and given the broken state of American politics, the media and social media where most American consume and get their information, that is driven by the profit motive that knows manufactured outrage sells and boring facts don't, doesn't give many cause for optimism. You have to dig deep to get to the facts and most Americans would rather just have it spoon fed to them by whatever outlet matches their leanings.

 

Outta likes again, but this longtime Asia expat (early mover in the cynical North American offshoring wave you aptly noted) agrees with you on all points.

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, akd said:

 

Presumably these are all the ingredients needed to grow a new leg in Russia.

why is he holding cooking oil, a can and bread? i saw photos of people holding money and a caption that it was payment for the deaths of their relatives but tbh, i ignored it as fake cause, it looked absurd. 

[Battlefront.com]

This is from an ardent pro-Russian account.  Always interesting to see how the war is being selectively interpreted from the other side.  Anyway, the thing that caught my eye the most was his English translation of a statement from a member of the Duma:

This is, of course, completely divorced from reality.  Russia has invested most of its contract ground forces into Ukraine and can't touch the remaining portion either because they are conscripts or they are keeping the lights on for the conscripts.  The comments about how many men they have in reserve doesn't mean anything unless they are called up, and that means mobilization which he says they don't need.

The thing is, this is not a reliable source.  Who here thinks that Putin consults the Duma when he's going to do something anyway?  Rubber stamps don't need consultation.  This guy might think he knows that Putin won't call for mobilization, might find himself surprised, then will come around with some completely contradictory statement saying how logical and sensible it is to call for mobilization.

Russians are sometimes good with messaging, sometimes it's a total mess.  Keeps us guessing and that's exactly what Putin likes.

Steve

[dan/california]

Targeting this Uragan rocket launcher with an SRBM demonstrates the importance of a anti-air/anti-drone/anti-missile bubble over high value assets going forward. Neither the Russians or the Ukrainians have truly been able to do this, and it accounts for a LOT of their losses. This was discussed heavily a hundred plus pages ago, but I thought this was a perfect, if unfortunate illustration. The benchmark for a first tier military going forward is going to be a massive multilayered defensive bubble to avoid/defeat attacks like this one. 

[Battlefront.com]

Well, this is an interesting bit of psychological warfare.  There's now a countdown for the destruction of the Crimean bridge and a warning that all Russian occupiers should get out now while they can.

https://crimeanbridgedown.com.ua/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like we're going to be seeing more of the Kraken unit that is currently fighting up around Kharkiv:

 

[Suleyman]

Iskandar on a Uragan? Overkill but at the same time makes sense. If MRLS are used properly they can do big time damage. 

[MSBoxer]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, this is an interesting bit of psychological warfare.  There's now a countdown for the destruction of the Crimean bridge and a warning that all Russian occupiers should get out now while they can.

https://crimeanbridgedown.com.ua/

Steve

Steve, do you see anything significant about the date? 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Steve, do you see anything significant about the date? 

Oh yes I do

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I don't think we ever got this one posted here.  It is a video of a unit of partisans that held up the Russian advance on Kyiv.  Closed Caption option is available.  It was posted 3 weeks ago.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, DMS said:

This time NATO will want to partition Russia, to take away nuclear weapons e.t.c. It is obvious to everyone. Better to have cold war with West, than be stuck in never ending civil war. War hawks in all involved countries must retire before something like that is possible. 

No one will accept it. Including Western side. Both sides are not ready for negotiations just now, each side expects to win. Each side wants capitulation of opposing side. If Putin (or any person instead of him) signs capitulation now, he becomes a traitor. Then he will be overthrown and you will get more radical leader. Raising pressure only scares people and sticks them to authorities. West doesn't give a "golden bridge" to retreat. 
People in Russia don't think that we are losing. (I am also not sure what is going on) And if they will, they won't necessarily want to capitulate. 

So, there is no way out.

@DMS, first, it takes some (stubborn Russian) courage to stand up here, so I will grant you that a least. It is also useful to discuss the likely postwar environment, which is in turn useful in understanding how the war should be ended militarily (e.g., at the 2002, 2014 or 2022 frontiers), so thank you for arguing your corner

(Denials of atrocities aside, and it is *pointless* to keep arguing that in this place, so please don't get yourself banned).

I'm also going to throw out some (more) controversial predictions, that will hopefully excite some wider comment from the superb commentariat here....

1.  I may be reading too much Galeev, but as someone who has spent his adult life on the front lines of the 'global economy' (energy business, first 'outsourced' in the 1990s and then 'offshored' to Asia in the 2000s), I find that Russia's time as a meaningful global, or even European, power is coming rapidly to a close.

2.  For all 'Great Russia's' nostalgic mythomania, it has let its industrial economy rot away or expatriate (they aren't the only ones). Its nukes and army aside, Russia is now just another resource + low cost IT service economy, one of a number of its population size and education level in the world, along with Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam and Indonesia among others. In a short while, it may be down to competing with Pakistan, South Africa and the Philippines (ask a Serbian merchant seaman how that feels). It has a (stagnant) population of 140M, of which at least 40M would be very happy to go their own way. And now have a very real chance to do so....

3.  I predict that a wounded, humiliated, isolated, postwar Russia will effectively partition itself over the next decade, with or without Putin. Victoria Nuland, Soros, MI6, the Mossaad and the Illuminati don't need to plan it. That doesn't necessarily mean multiple new sovereign states in the near term, although it might.

4.  Significant civil violence seems inevitable, as militias controlled de facto by the regional бояре shrug off the zero-value-added extortion of the Moscow gangster-courtiers and seize control of the exportable resource/revenue streams.

5.  Make no mistake, these resources WILL find buyers, overseas, heedless of sanctions. The Glencores of the world are quite skilled at such games, from Iran days and before. The 5 Eyes will wink at it, so long as profits flow to the 'decentralisers', not to Moscow. And I don't even need to mention the numerous 'Crazy Rich Asian' family office/traders whose Wharton/LSE trained scions do such business today with utter impunity (and often Chinese backing). The margins are just too good in a globalised world awash in low cost capital. Big business drools over opportunities to price arbitrage in huge volumes around an artifical barrier that is filled with loopholes....

[I'm not just talking oil & gas here, btw, but a raft of other strategic minerals critical to a 'decarbonising' world that Russia holds in abundance and where the alternative supplies lie in similarly awkward places like Congo, the Andes and perhaps the Hindukush... or else deep in the oceans. China is an obvious buyer, but it won't necessarily have an interest in propping up an ineffective Moscow as a middleman].

6.  Back to Russia, I find it unlikely that this strife and defederalisation escalates to full civil war, save for Transnistria style clashes around army bases where Slavic Russian minorities refuse to cede authority to.... non-Slavs (I shall not identify ethnic or religious groups).

Why? Simply because Moscow now has no potent armed force able to wage its side of such a civil war, enforce its writ and secure central control over the goodies.

7.  OMON, Rosgvardia, VDV are all broken forces now, thanks to Putin's misadventure. Their cadre will largely ignore orders from Moscow, and defect to the militias. The boyars can also expect support from across nearby borders, including China and the central petro-Stans, looking to cut deals for resources.

8. Moscow can expect only the regular army to try to obey it. But its command is now  discredited and in disarray, and any capable general is seen in Moscow as a threat to become a Napoleon.

....So TL:DR, Russia's legacy armed forces were up to 25 Feb 2022 the only thing that made that country 'special' in today's world, and hold its vast territory together as a going concern. That force is now punctured and deflating, except for the unusable nukes....

9. This is another huge topic in itself, but I view Russian denuclearisation as a likely part of a settlement to return a far more loosely 'federated' Russia to the community of nations.  It will take a few years, but I expect Russia to sell off [i.e. decommission, not sell to rogue actors] its strategic arsenal for cash aid, and to privatise the space-related stuff (Elon or Jeff or some tycoon in India following in the footsteps of the learned Jaipur maharajahs). Nukes are vastly more valuable to Russia as tradeable assets than as weapons.

10. So what does this mean for you and your countrymen, DNS? Others here have urged you to refuse and resist as much as you can, which sure, is very easy for us to preach from our comfortable keyboards, risking no harm to ourselves or our families.

...As an expat myself, I might suggest you and other highly intelligent and 'cosmopolitan' Russians to study which metro areas of your country (hint: not Moscow or Petrograd!) are likely to do well out of the next decade, and consider relocating there with your family, formally or informally. I'd personally head for the Kuban 'sunbelt' but that's of course personal choice and costs of living there are high. Karelia or Pskov, or maybe even Belgorod might also do well.

... I'd be very interested in your thoughts/ criticisms on the above, since you seem unafraid to express them here.

More widely, may this war end swiftly, and also with a Ukrainian victory on Ukraine's terms. But remember always, living well is the best revenge!

Edited May 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like we're in the midst of a strategic tipping point. 

On the Russian side it looks like the last gasps of the Easter Offensive are winding down. There is for sure more fighting to come, and some loss of territory for Ukraine, but the offensive power is no longer significant enough to do much beyond causing some localized problems.

On the Ukrainian side, it has been officially announced (yesterday) that Ukraine is conducing large scale coordinated counter attacks in the Kharkiv area.  Meaning, those gains we've seen in the past few days were part of a larger plan and not the product of sudden opportunities that were taken advantage of.  I'm not surprised as the moves felt calculated rather than improvised.

Perhaps more importantly, Ukraine announced that it is going on the counter offensive in Izyum as well.  As this was Russia's primary focus for their supposedly big offensive, this is a big deal.  Ukraine has been very, very, very careful to not announce its intentions beforehand, so they must be pretty confident they can pull it off. 

Sure, Ukraine could be trying to psych out the Russians, but I'm not sure they would have made such a bold statement if they aren't planning on backing it up.  And I don't think they mean countering Izyum by only attacking north of it (though that is no doubt part of the plan).  I think they are going to attack Izyum bridgehead more directly.  One reason I think this is because...

Reportedly 4 BTGs (of the infamous "22 BTGs") from the 4th Guards Tank Division and 106th Airborne Regiment were pulled from the front due to being combat ineffective.  This is significant because both units were more-or-less full strength when the war started, or at least more up to strength than others.  These units were also known to have suffered large losses in the north.  So it seems that two of Russia's prime units are out of the war for now.  Not even enough power left to shift them to other duties perhaps.

These two units are probably indicative of the condition of the remaining "22 BTGs"; one step away from combat ineffective.  Which, when combined with Ukraine stating it's going on the counter offensive, should provide us with some interesting days of combat.  I don't think Ukraine might get it's forces to Moscow by the 9th, but who knows

Steve

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

This is, of course, completely divorced from reality.  Russia has invested most of its contract ground forces into Ukraine and can't touch the remaining portion either because they are conscripts or they are keeping the lights on for the conscripts.  The comments about how many men they have in reserve doesn't mean anything unless they are called up, and that means mobilization which he says they don't need.

Even if they're called up, what will they arm them with?  Do they even have enough rifles?  Did Russia secretly do a big buy-back of Mosin Nagants at Big 5 fifteen years ago and that's why you can't get them cheap anymore?

What vehicles will they ride in?  On paper Russia has 10,000 tanks in reserve, but given that many of the tanks went into Ukraine had egg cartons for reactive armor, and the active duty trucks had bad tires, how long would it take to piece together 1000 more functioning tanks.  Probably none of which will have modernised electronics.  Same with BMPs and BTRs - how many of the reserve could be put into running order? General Motors isn't going to dump a bunch of trucks on them.  So even if Putin declares it is a war and "fully mobilizes", how much of that reserve could they actually arm and how long would it take?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Reportedly 4 BTGs (of the infamous "22 BTGs") from the 4th Guards Tank Division and 106th Airborne Regiment were pulled from the front due to being combat ineffective.  This is significant because both units were more-or-less full strength when the war started, or at least more up to strength than others.  These units were also known to have suffered large losses in the north.  So it seems that two of Russia's prime units are out of the war for now.  Not even enough power left to shift them to other duties perhaps.

These two units are probably indicative of the condition of the remaining "22 BTGs"; one step away from combat ineffective.  Which, when combined with Ukraine stating it's going on the counter offensive, should provide us with some interesting days of combat.  I don't think Ukraine might get it's forces to Moscow by the 9th, but who knows

Steve

 

Could also be that they are positioning all that artillery they have been getting to bring the hammer.  If the Russian forces have gotten to that brittle tipping point.....

[sburke]

The Kremlin blinks first in the geo-economic war over Ukraine (msn.com)

On April 29, Russia’s finance ministry announced that it would pay some $650m to foreign creditors on two overdue Eurobonds. And by making the payments before the bonds’ grace period expired on May 4, the Kremlin has avoided falling into sovereign default.

On the surface, this may look like a win for Russia. But in reality, the move was an embarrassing one for Vladimir Putin.

Ahead of the bond’s formal maturity on April 4, the Kremlin announced that it would buy back the bonds in roubles – and pay those who refused to accept the rouble buy-back as well. Nearly 75 percent of bondholders (almost certainly all domestic) agreed to the new terms .

Emboldened, the Kremlin announced on April 6 that it was also depositing roubles into accounts set up for other bondholders. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committees judged this to be a “potential-failure-to-pay” event, ruling that Russia would effectively be in default if it fails to correct the situation by the aforementioned May 4 deadline. In response, Russian officials accused the West of attempting to force Russia into a default by restricting its access to foreign currency reserves. The US Treasury, which oversees sanctions, however made clear that sanctions do not bar Russia from paying with funds it was earning from ongoing oil and gas sales.

Russia’s recent decision to pay the bonds in foreign currency enabled it to avoid the all-but-guaranteed acceleration of other debts and lawsuits that would have followed a default and further impoverished the Russian people.

However, the move also left the Kremlin in a position of extreme hypocrisy and embarrassment. In the end, what Putin did was to repay domestic bondholders with roubles, which they cannot convert freely into hard currency to spend abroad. And pay foreign holders in full, in dollars – hardly a feat worthy of praise.

To achieve this Putin likely tapped into the record levels of foreign currency Russia accumulated through oil and gas sales since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine.

And it seems, soon it may also lose that crucial income.

On May 4, the European Union proposed plans to phase out the purchase of Russian oil.

Between the launch of its invasion on February 24 and the time of writing, Russia has earned $21bn from oil sales to the EU according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CRE). This record income was partially due to high hydrocarbon prices resulting from the war itself. Russia’s foreign currency stockpile, however, will not keep growing forever as the costs of the war are borne and oil and gas markets readjust. And now, it is also on the verge of losing a key customer.

Furthermore the EU is going after Russia’s oil sales not just within the bloc but around the world.

The bloc’s package of sanctions measures also includes a ban on providing transportation to Russian oil, regardless of where it is destined. This is certainly a fallible measure, given shipping companies set up outside the bloc could avoid it. However, the package will also bar the provision of insurance services for such shipping. This is far more difficult to evade, given the shipping insurance market is so dominated by EU, Canadian and US firms.

In case there is any doubt just how exposed the shipping sector is to Western sanctions, one just needs to look to the actions of Russian state-owned shipping company Sovcomflot. On May 3 specialist maritime industry publication Lloyd’s List revealed that Sovcomflot was looking to sell at least 40 ships from its 121 ship fleet before wind-down authorisations expire and it becomes fully sanctioned on May 15.

If Sovcomflot fails to raise enough cash to honour its debts before then, it will fall into default and creditors will go after its ships. Just like the Russian state, Russian businesses are still fearful of defaulting on Western creditors – even amid a war.

These sanctions are unlikely to be lifted as long as Russian troops remain beyond the pre-February 24 lines of control. For example, none of the sanctions introduced after Russia’s annexation of Crimea have ever been lifted.

Despite these setbacks, there is clearly some fight left in Russia, which is using its gas sales to Europe to try and ensure that the rouble remains convertible even as sanctions are further tightened, and thus that it can at least buy foreign currency if and when needed.

The Kremlin is likely to cut off other EU countries and companies who refuse to comply with the gas-for-roubles demand, as it already has with Poland and Bulgaria. But gas sales to Europe are an even more important source of revenue for the Kremlin. Pipelines are expensive to replace, and the above mentioned shipping sanctions are applied to liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes as well. Europe should prepare to call Putin’s bluff.

The West is winning the geo-economic war. The Kremlin will blink again.

 

[Reclaimer]

55 minutes ago, chrisl said:

many of the tanks went into Ukraine had egg cartons for reactive armor

Actually, that's something I've been wondering about for awhile. Does anybody here know the deal with that? Were those blocks supposed to be filled with explosives but fell victim to incompetence/graft? Or, were those egg carton filled blocks some kind of non-explosive reactive armor?

[Aragorn2002]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

The Kremlin blinks first in the geo-economic war over Ukraine (msn.com)

On April 29, Russia’s finance ministry announced that it would pay some $650m to foreign creditors on two overdue Eurobonds. And by making the payments before the bonds’ grace period expired on May 4, the Kremlin has avoided falling into sovereign default.

On the surface, this may look like a win for Russia. But in reality, the move was an embarrassing one for Vladimir Putin.

Ahead of the bond’s formal maturity on April 4, the Kremlin announced that it would buy back the bonds in roubles – and pay those who refused to accept the rouble buy-back as well. Nearly 75 percent of bondholders (almost certainly all domestic) agreed to the new terms .

Emboldened, the Kremlin announced on April 6 that it was also depositing roubles into accounts set up for other bondholders. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committees judged this to be a “potential-failure-to-pay” event, ruling that Russia would effectively be in default if it fails to correct the situation by the aforementioned May 4 deadline. In response, Russian officials accused the West of attempting to force Russia into a default by restricting its access to foreign currency reserves. The US Treasury, which oversees sanctions, however made clear that sanctions do not bar Russia from paying with funds it was earning from ongoing oil and gas sales.

Russia’s recent decision to pay the bonds in foreign currency enabled it to avoid the all-but-guaranteed acceleration of other debts and lawsuits that would have followed a default and further impoverished the Russian people.

However, the move also left the Kremlin in a position of extreme hypocrisy and embarrassment. In the end, what Putin did was to repay domestic bondholders with roubles, which they cannot convert freely into hard currency to spend abroad. And pay foreign holders in full, in dollars – hardly a feat worthy of praise.

To achieve this Putin likely tapped into the record levels of foreign currency Russia accumulated through oil and gas sales since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine.

And it seems, soon it may also lose that crucial income.

On May 4, the European Union proposed plans to phase out the purchase of Russian oil.

Between the launch of its invasion on February 24 and the time of writing, Russia has earned $21bn from oil sales to the EU according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CRE). This record income was partially due to high hydrocarbon prices resulting from the war itself. Russia’s foreign currency stockpile, however, will not keep growing forever as the costs of the war are borne and oil and gas markets readjust. And now, it is also on the verge of losing a key customer.

Furthermore the EU is going after Russia’s oil sales not just within the bloc but around the world.

The bloc’s package of sanctions measures also includes a ban on providing transportation to Russian oil, regardless of where it is destined. This is certainly a fallible measure, given shipping companies set up outside the bloc could avoid it. However, the package will also bar the provision of insurance services for such shipping. This is far more difficult to evade, given the shipping insurance market is so dominated by EU, Canadian and US firms.

In case there is any doubt just how exposed the shipping sector is to Western sanctions, one just needs to look to the actions of Russian state-owned shipping company Sovcomflot. On May 3 specialist maritime industry publication Lloyd’s List revealed that Sovcomflot was looking to sell at least 40 ships from its 121 ship fleet before wind-down authorisations expire and it becomes fully sanctioned on May 15.

If Sovcomflot fails to raise enough cash to honour its debts before then, it will fall into default and creditors will go after its ships. Just like the Russian state, Russian businesses are still fearful of defaulting on Western creditors – even amid a war.

These sanctions are unlikely to be lifted as long as Russian troops remain beyond the pre-February 24 lines of control. For example, none of the sanctions introduced after Russia’s annexation of Crimea have ever been lifted.

Despite these setbacks, there is clearly some fight left in Russia, which is using its gas sales to Europe to try and ensure that the rouble remains convertible even as sanctions are further tightened, and thus that it can at least buy foreign currency if and when needed.

The Kremlin is likely to cut off other EU countries and companies who refuse to comply with the gas-for-roubles demand, as it already has with Poland and Bulgaria. But gas sales to Europe are an even more important source of revenue for the Kremlin. Pipelines are expensive to replace, and the above mentioned shipping sanctions are applied to liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes as well. Europe should prepare to call Putin’s bluff.

The West is winning the geo-economic war. The Kremlin will blink again.

 

Out of likes, but very interesting. This is the war that matters most.