How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

You see where the root of the issue is?

Ex-Soviet States opting for a Democratic form of government and forming an alliance with other democratic governments.  The audacity of them! During the Soviet era Democratic countries had communist parties. They died a natural death by not getting enough votes. To fight an idea sure, you can have a powerful military, but that is useless if you don't have a better idea. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by chuckdyke

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Ex-Soviet States opting for a Democratic form of government. The audacity of them! During the Soviet era Democratic countries had communist parties. They died a natural death by not getting enough votes. To fight an idea sure, you can have a powerful military, but that is useless if you don't have a better idea. 

Oh but there's an idea. Speaking of commies - As Zuganov, which is putin's close partner and the head of russian communist party, have said - "during WW2 nazis killed jews, russians, gypsies and other human filth".

That sentence perfectly describes modern russian cargo cult of crossbreeding two friendly ideologies that is supposed to make them great and help them do what Stalin failed to do (aka ending up losing WW2 and not taking whole Europe as was intended).

Edited May 5, 2022 by kraze

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

That sentence perfectly describes modern russian cargo cult of crossbreeding two friendly ideologies.

How to describe the Russian Situation on Russian TV. Today is unfortunately not as good as yesterday but much better than tomorrow. 

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, DMS said:

Replying to everyone: there are war crimes and still war propaganda exist. Sometimes propaganda lies, someone tells truth, sometimes - exaggerated truth. It's a question of tactic. War propaganda can't be "truthful", only idiot would limit himself during war. And yes, it is possible that there are some real war crimes and this time propaganda says true, but next time it invents fictional new case, using trust, raised by previous one. Good propaganda must use real cases. But it is not enough, they must provide flow of events, so public would stay interested.  

Ok, world wars are "dark past", no parallels are acceptable. But, Kuweit girl Nayirah. "Iraqi soldiers take babies out of incubators in a Kuwaiti hospital, take the incubators, and leave the babies to die." You know that she was Kuweit ambassador's daughter, that it was 100% lie, right? There were a lot of real war crimes, committed by Iraq soldiers in Kuweit. But propaganda needs something tremendous to dehumanise enemy. "They are not like us, they are savages". Private Jessica Lynch. You must know, that she was not raped, she was treated well by expecting capitulation Iraq soldiers. There are a lot of Russian propaganda examples, but you believe in existence of Russian propaganda, so no sense in mentioning them.

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical. When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself. You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

So come out and say it, agree with the truth and we might all actually listen to your drearily consistent whataboutism nonsense:

"Invading Russian forces have and are still committing rape, murder, torture, looting and random killing of civilians. They torture and execute POWs. They used children as human shields in the Kiev retreat. They constantly shell towns and villages that have no military value."

@DMSDo you agree with that statement?

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

 

 

If THAT doesn't make Finland and Sweden run to NATO, then nothing will.

"If you try to defend yourself from Russian invasion, we will invade you."

Perfect Kremlin logic.

[chuckdyke]

Not a clever idea to have a sunroof on your car. To use a less lethal explosive would be a better idea. A wounded soldier is much more of a burden, and he will return among his own people to tell what happened. The soldier applying a tourniquet is a good example. If he doesn't get help soon he will loose that leg.

 

[Suleyman]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

d. Many of the draftees are Asian and Muslim, with little love for whites, including Russians, who call them 'чурка' (churkas, which is roughly 'wood chips'). It's easy for them to Other the occupied population (and vice versa). That said, the brutality seems to be an equal opportunity recreation; 

Gotta take a quick dig at Muslims huh? Good one. Being Muslim has nothing to do with Russian brutality in the war. There are white Muslims too. And if a Muslim soldier commits a crime it’s an individual issue not a religious one. I’m astonished someone put Russian brutality on Islam when the Russians been killing Muslims for a long time

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Gotta take a quick dig at Muslims huh? Good one. Being Muslim has nothing to do with Russian brutality in the war. There are white Muslims too. And if a Muslim soldier commits a crime it’s an individual issue not a religious one. I’m astonished someone put Russian brutality on Islam when the Russians been killing Muslims for a long time

The irony is that the most brutality supporting church in Russia is Christian.

They give out flyers to russian soldiers demanding them to "exterminate Ukrainian nation from the face of the Earth".

I'm pretty sure russian muslims say the same things in their meetings but it has to do with them beeing russian, not muslim.

Bonus - that "holy image" is of a russian invader that got killed during the first Chechen war. I hope they will have a lot more to put on icons in the months to come.

Edited May 5, 2022 by kraze

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So come out and say it, agree with the truth and we might all actually listen to your drearily consistent whataboutism nonsense:

"Invading Russian forces have and are still committing rape, murder, torture, looting and random killing of civilians. They torture and execute POWs. They used children as human shields in the Kiev retreat. They constantly shell towns and villages that have no military value."

@DMSDo you agree with that statement?

I get the OPs point, we do need to be mindful of propaganda from all corners of this thing.  However, the facts and evidence are stacking so high at this point that it has changed the character of this war.

War crimes always happen in war, true.  But the frequency and intensity are a direct reflection of the fighting force perpetrating them, who are in turn a direct reflection of the society that produced, sent and supports those same soldiers.  Generally one can accept “anomalies” of abhorrent behaviour, but when it takes on a frequency and pattern of systemic organization, it crosses a larger line that speaks to the qualities of the culture that allowed this to happen - I have in-laws who are German, and they live with this even today based on WW2, these are stains that do not wash easily.

So what about this war?  Well it has become a stain on the Russian people.  You allowed this to happen, either by supporting the current government, or not doing anything to stop them.  This one is on you, each and everyone - of at least voting age and functioning mental faculty.  You can cry “lies” and persecution but you have earned every one of those as well.  Worse, your children, who do not have a voice in this, will live with this for generations.  It is costing a lot more than world opinion, as we have discussed at length and will continue to cost for years.

To the OP my advice is to not waste your time at a small niche wargaming site trying to defend what has become undefendable.  My advice is to resist this from without or within any way that you can.  And I mean resist the Russian government and work towards its downfall because it needs to fall.  You may not succeed but at least you will be able to look in the mirror and know you did what you could to preserve any shred of Russian dignity.

These types of wars can break nations, those attacked and those attacking.  I strongly suggest you spend your energies elsewhere in order to try and preserve what you have left as a nation.

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

20 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Gotta take a quick dig at Muslims huh? Good one. Being Muslim has nothing to do with Russian brutality in the war. There are white Muslims too. And if a Muslim soldier commits a crime it’s an individual issue not a religious one. I’m astonished someone put Russian brutality on Islam when the Russians been killing Muslims for a long time

Well, you cherry picked one item from a long list in order to take offence.  But like it or not, it's a fact that Muslim populations in Russia (and the FSU) aren't on great terms with the Christian Slavs historically. So hell yes, they do 'other' each other quite readily.

In the same way, the WW2 PTO took on an extra layer of brutality because the whites and Japanese saw each other as alien and less than human. And it should surprise exactly no one reading this board that blond Germans 'othered' (and mass murdered) equally blond Slavs 3/4 of a century ago. And of course, there's Yugoslavia. So racism is in the eye of the beholder.

That's my sole purpose in mentioning it; there is no other agenda. And no 'dig'. I have spent plenty of time in Muslim countries and don't have any problem personally although I've gotten some flak.

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have in-laws who are German, and they live with this even today based on WW2, these are stains that do not wash easily.

 

The difference is that Germans had a stomach to admit that their fathers and grandfathers were criminal and did horrible atrocities. Russians made heroes of theirs, even though they were no different. So yeah, while Germany is stained and grandchildren do suffer mostly psychological consequences - nobody will ever argue that Germany is one of the most civilized countries on the planet with a lot of value in human life nowadays.

So if a Russian stealing a toilet bowl and raping some Finnish woman in 1940 is a celebrated hero - why can't a guy doing exactly that be considered a hero in 2022?

Thus rape and looting isn't bad, saying that rape and looting is bad - is bad. It's how a Germany would've been if the war ended with some kind of ceasefire on the outskirts of Germany. It's how Russia ended up being because it all ended with a ceasefire at their border in 1991.

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

I recall that last time,  it took about a week between Ukraine announcing the counteroffensive, and Russians vacating Kiev and Sumy regions completely. Let's see how well they'll do now - I'd think that at least forces north of Kharkhiv will be pushed back to the border.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Huba

[Suleyman]

23 minutes ago, kraze said:

The irony is that the most brutality supporting church in Russia is Christian.

They give out flyers to russian soldiers demanding them to "exterminate Ukrainian nation from the face of the Earth".

I'm pretty sure russian muslims say the same things in their meetings but it has to do with them beeing russian, not muslim.

Bonus - that "holy image" is of a russian invader that got killed during the first Chechen war. I hope they will have a lot more to put on icons in the months to come.

Absolutely. They are Russian citizens so they’re gonna follow the game plan that the Russian military has. Most Muslim people are with Ukraine, since we have gone through invasions and been transgressed with brutality, we can relate. It’s confusing to me how the Chechen government even supports Russia in this war.
 

Although one thing I also want to say is not all Russians are bad however since they are on the wrong side you have to group them together. Off topic but I have a lineage from Turkey that’s fought Russians in the black sea region. Even though they were our enemies the units posted in my family’s village treated the village very nicely. Can’t say the same about them anymore though. 
 

23 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, you cherry picked one item from a long list in order to take offence.  But like it or not, it's a fact that Muslim populations in Russia (and the FSU) aren't on great terms with the Christian Slavs historically. So hell yes, they do 'other' each other quite readily.

In the same way, the WW2 PTO took on an extra layer of brutality because the whites and Japanese saw each other as alien and less than human. And it should surprise exactly no one reading this board that blond Germans 'othered' (and mass murdered) equally blond Slavs 3/4 of a century ago. And of course, there's Yugoslavia. So racism is in the eye of the beholder.

That's my sole purpose in mentioning it; there is no other agenda. And no 'dig'. I have spent plenty of time in Muslim countries and don't have any problem personally although I've gotten some flak.

 

Not a cherry pick I agreed with your other points except this one which was blaming it on a people’s faith, since literally anyone can be Muslim it’s not an ethnicity. Ukrainians haven’t done nothing to Chechens nor Dagestanis or Tatars so I don’t see why that would make them join the side that actually murdered their people.  

[Kinophile]

Frankly, I'm curious how sustained, at a large scale, this Ukrainian "counteroffensive" can be. Their operational logistics process still seems very ad hoc and often driven by local demands, rather than operational plans determined by clear strategic principles and objectives. Failure to professionalise their materials supply chain will undermine and retard any theater level offensives, giving them to short lived gains then stalemate, then another short attack grinding into yet another stalemate. 

This will doom any national victory as it will give RUS strategic breathing room. 

All these Spanky New Fisher Price Nato toys are nice, but if UKR logistics are not up to snuff and dont drastically improve very rapidly then RuA will get the stalling of the war's momentum that it so desperately needs.

Russia is on the operational offensive but on the strategic back foot. Now the strategic imperative and pressure is on UKR to keep unbalancing Russia.

But half assed UKR logistics will only give half-victories.

@Haiduk or @akd can you shed some light on the UKR logistics state, process and capabilities?

...

Ref this new UKR offensive itself, I suspect it will be series of reinforced localised offensives, shoving and pushing at battalion level, seeking the weaker (low morale) units and breaking them in the hopes of a domino morale collapse.

In comparison the RUS offensive needed to physically destroy UKR formations, as their morale is rock solid, a much harder task. They needed to blow up/kill/capture a lot of UKR gear and troops, very quickly, to have any chance of success.

They failed (indeed a plodding, arty-driven pace was the deliberately chosen tactical approach). In the process Dvornikov hollowed out his larger formations as he attempted to maintain a sharp edge against a highly mobile, tactically flexible and determined resistance. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

Lololol

[Kinophile]

?

"I'm sorry, I dont speak Spanish..."

Edited May 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

"Best wishes in Victory Day (9 may)". The funny part is that it is an American soldier on the poster.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Huba

[domfluff]

It's a Russian billboard celebrating their veterans. That's an American soldier.

It's not really related to current events in Ukraine (it's not about May 9th 2022).

Edited May 5, 2022 by domfluff

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Lololol

good one, but this one was better

https://24tv.ua/u_rosiyi_z_9_travnya_privitali_plakatami_z_natsistami_voni_oglyadayut_pidbitiy_radyanskiy_tank_n1147618

They really have no clue what they are even celebrating at this point, let alone how their soldiers looked at the time

 

[domfluff]

That's a Junkers bomber crew for the same thing.

[FancyCat]

I'm very surprised that Ukraine is launching a counteroffensive at Izyum, isn't that where supposedly the Russians placed a ton of offensive power? It must mean that power is exhausted.

[Erwin]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm not going to bother responding this time.  The last three times I challenged your points you ran away.  I even called out your behavior the last two times, yet you did not defend your points.  And as expected, you came right back without any modifications.

To the rest of you, I suggest not responding.  He obviously thinks he's above the need to defend his points.  Probably because he has no comeback to the ease in which his positions are shown to be full of holes.

Steve

Huh?  I don't have the time to monitor these threads more than a couple times a day and by then there are usually another 5 or 6 pages, so I rarely even see the responses. 

My comments are based on my knowledge of history, the direction taken of wars in the past 50-60 years and how they are resolved politically, and personal experience of the nations in the regions since my family comes from Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics.  My opinion is just that...  Most of the time it's no better nor worse than anyone else's opinion.  But... when I speak of the national characters of some of these nations I do know more than most.  The fact that some folks here are upset when someone says something they disagree with, is their problem.  Just cos I quoted your post in February that "it will all be over in a couple of days" you seem to still be upset.  Can't we all just get along?

 

[FancyCat]

A nice visual showing the front lines changed by the recent Ukrainian action near Kharkov.

 

[sross112]

@akd

Follow up to your video of the Avian Air Assault Brigade. Here the operations staff is seen in the field conducting Battle Damage Assessments of earlier strikes:

Edited May 5, 2022 by sross112