How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Theres some twitter rumblings about an attack on Mykolaiv...?

Maybe just excitable hacks hearing of local boom boom and equating it with mini-barbarossa 2.0.

Been going on for more than a week, so not sure if there is anything specific that's new.

Russian disinformation about intentions is standard.  If you were following the 2014 war closely enough you would have seen all kinds of crazy stuff like this.  Not only things like where attacks were planned (for both sides) but claiming Ukraine lost control of places way behind the lines. A lot of the disinformation was being spread unintentionally by people who didn't know how to filter information properly before repeating.

Russia has been conducting attacks around Kherson aimed westward for weeks now.  This is not an attempt to advance to Mykolaiv as it is to keep Ukraine from retaking ground.  If Ukraine's counter attacks get much closer their lines of communication are going to be seriously threatened.

Steve

[Suleyman]

They could feint towards there, probing actions. But it’s obvious they want that Izium area, so the focus is there. I don’t think they even mind being pushed back from Kharkov a little. I’m still surprised at how they decided to throw a platoon with a T-90M to recapture a village that obviously had well equipped defenders. No CAS, or UAV guided artillery attacks? I’m not rooting for them but only critiquing their tactics. Not trying to be funny but they are better off using older tanks and armored vehicles since their attrition rate is so high.

i want to play a player vs player match in CMBS but dont got the time for it right now. Maybe soon? If anybody is down to play a Florida boy. 

[Cobetco]

So I left the comfort of art twitter to go check in the depths of current events twitter. All the reports of attacks on Mykolaiv are like 8 hours old, looks like a normal shelling, or rocket attack. However lots of English speakers calling the Ukrainians Nazis, and complaining about giving the Ukrainians weapons, and that made me feel sick inside. sticking to art twitter. reading current events on twitter is like stepping into a cesspool.

Edited May 5, 2022 by Cobetco
i cannot spell or do grammer, I draw things good

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

“There is a false narrative that UAF success is because of NATO training.”

That was an excellent read.  I've suspected the NATO NCO training credit was a bit too much as it's only recently ramped up and this isn't the sort of thing that is built in a couple of years. 

What I fond interesting about the Twitter postings is that they felt Ukraine had a fairly functional substitute that seems to work pretty well for this situation (at least).  Might not work so well in the future when needing to be deployed on short notice for something like a peacetime exercise of peacekeeping mission.  Guys who are willing to drop their day jobs and lives to defend their country might not be so keen to sit in a desert for 6 months.  But that's a problem I'm sure Ukraine won't mind needing to tackle as it would mean this Russia crap is behind it

Steve

[dan/california]

I don't think the Russians are gaining around Kherson, in fact I think they are probably losing ground...

[Suleyman]

If they lose ground in Kherson I think the war is close to ending. 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

If they lose ground in Kherson I think the war is close to ending. 

Maybe not ending, but certainly another un-spinnable sign the Russians are losing, and rather badly. Putin seems determined to push his army to complete failure. I can't quite decide if he is doing due to delusion, or to punsh the military for not giving him the "short victorious war" he had planned on.

[Suleyman]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Maybe not ending, but certainly another un-spinnable sign the Russians are losing, and rather badly. Putin seems determined to push his army to complete failure. I can't quite decide if he is doing due to delusion, or to punsh the military for not giving him the "short victorious war" he had planned on.

Yes I agree, I didn’t mean ending right now but that would seal the deal on the outcome.

One thing that is concerning is they seem to be getting ready to grind it out, setting their aims for months ahead. They want that breakthrough but if they get defeated here they’re definitely done. 

[sross112]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What I fond interesting about the Twitter postings is that they felt Ukraine had a fairly functional substitute that seems to work pretty well for this situation (at least).  Might not work so well in the future when needing to be deployed on short notice for something like a peacetime exercise of peacekeeping mission.  Guys who are willing to drop their day jobs and lives to defend their country might not be so keen to sit in a desert for 6 months.  But that's a problem I'm sure Ukraine won't mind needing to tackle as it would mean this Russia crap is behind it

I've thought a bit about their structure and their future structure needs. I think the real game changer was the TD units everywhere the RA went and like the thread pointed out a lot of them were older veterans so they had some good guidance. Their regular forces had come a long way in the last 8 years and I don't doubt that the NATO training played a large part in that. I probably give more credit to the NCO's than what is realistic as you do not build an entire NCO corps in 8 years. 8 years of continuous service just gives you a decent Staff Sergeant. However that 8 years gives you a good batch of salty Corporals and Sergeants so at least the lowest levels are well represented and led. That there is a pretty good advantage over the RA.

The part that is probably under stated is their officer corps from Battalion level on down. 8 years of professional western  infusion in the tactical level leadership at platoon and company level is a pretty big deal. The higher up the chain you go the more old Soviet training is imbedded in there and I do wonder how much that affects the more operational approach. I reckon we will be able to dissect that after we see some larger mobile ops.

With force structure Ukraine was heading in the right direction with the TD units and in the future that should be expanded. I think it is a good model for any nation that is neighbors with an aggressor state like Russia. If you don't plan on invading anyone there is a lot less call for a fully offensive capable military, a large portion can be focused on defense of your nation. Something along a hybrid National Guard that functions regionally and focused on defense. Basically an expansion of what we saw but with better and more equipment at that level. Stick to light  and light motorized infantry with man portable support weapons (ATGM, mortars, manpads and drones). Give the people a chance to defend themselves and their loved ones, delay and harass the enemy advance and provide local recon until the cavalry arrives. 

The regular UA structure is probably pretty good but could use a few tweaks. I think that will come as more and more western equipment is phased in and they get comfortable with the capabilities that come with them. I'm hoping that when the dust settles the tank brigades become ABCT's and the mech brigades become heavy IBCT's. If equipped with top tier stuff they could probably downsize their regular forces where they aren't struggling with manpower and still be just as effective if not more. I imagine the lessons of this war will result in a proliferation of drones and long range arty that will be able to cover a lot more ground with less forward deployed units. 

They definitely shouldn't model their entire military force after say the US. Different missions. The US tends to fight a war every so often somewhere else and isn't too worried about an imminent invasion from Mexico or Canada. The US reserve system works well for the US military but a militia system of reserves would be better suited to those nations with hostile neighbors. If you don't plan on doing that sort of thing you'll probably be just fine with a more defensive orientated force structure. 

On another note, if Germany would get weaned off of Russian gas I think they should become the Arsenal of Democracy for Europe. If they would ramp up their weapons production and supply all those former eastern bloc nations with the good stuff countries like Poland wouldn't have to buy M1's. It would behoove all those countries to be running the same weapons systems, especially in their heavy stuff. This would make them much more formidable but will also solve the "come as you are" war to some degree as everyone can draw on all the stockpiled equipment and not just what their individual logistics/maintenance is set up for. That right there is a pretty big force multiplier for sustained combat operations. 

[dan/california]

Someone posted this several pages back, but I couldn't find it easily, so I am just reposting it. Some really good thinking, and historical analysis on the risks Putin would run with mass mobilization. It is worth your time to read all of it.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

The US is the world's largest grain producer and exporter. If there is a shortage of bread on your local supermarket shelves it isn't because of a lack grain being imported from Ukraine. Bigger chance the cause is a shortage of plastic for the bags than wheat for the bread.

 

I think this is a common misconception and comes from some truly heroic defensive actions in WW2. The reason I think it is a misconception is because it is used as a special strength of the Russian military and it is predicated on some actions and not all. Not every defensive action fought by the Russian army in it's history has shown to have this "tenacity". Sure there are examples but it is not the rule. Sure they have a better record than the ARVN but I'd argue they are not in the same league as the USMC, Japanese Army, IDF or French Foreign Legion. 

On top of that this is a different war. Almost any people from any nation that have an ounce of nationalism will fight pretty hard to defend their homes. They might not win but they will give a very stubborn defense. The RA is not defending its homes. As much Russian state propaganda would like to make them believe that Ukraine is Russia and should be defended that way the soldiers know it isn't. They know that they are part of an invading army and the soil they stand on isn't theirs.

If they truly felt that way they would be way more tenacious in the attack as well. They aren't. The RA has failed to display almost all of the fairy tale qualities that we in the west and themselves have painted them with. For that matter they should be inflicting horrendous losses on the counter attacks around Kharkiv. The high commands operational art should be being applauded by approving generals in the west. Their famous armored spearheads should have shattered the UA and encircled Kyiv. Their vaunted arty should be wiping whole brigades off the battlefield at whim. Their dominating air force should have uncontested air supremacy across the whole country and their illustrious fleet should sail with impunity throughout the Black Sea.  

LOL, I think I just wrote a new season for Mythbusters!!

 

Edit: I need to type faster, @The_Capt and @Reclaimer are quick-draws!!

out of likes mate, but this was good!

[kraze]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If I recall correctly from Daniel Goldhagen, this photo postcard was sent home by a German soldier to his family, with a note on the back sharing the 'difficult work' he had to do in the name of the Greater German Reich:

 

Clearly you can see this photo was taken in the same building where they filmed the lunar module landing. And the note on the back? OBVIOUS. My god those MI6 are damn lazy - they were trying harder during Napoleonic wars.

[Taranis]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

As I know Kraken is new-formed volunteer unit under subordination of SBU or GUR (Intelligence directorate), though it formed by Azov. But Azov in Ukraine is more wide sense than regiment. This is and political and paramilitary movement National Corps, and veteran organizations, and different organizations of work with kids and youth.

There is controversal information, former "Tornado" fighters, convicted in 2016 and pardoned by Zelensky, when the war began and they made a statement they are ready to fight and prove own innocence by own blood, also in composition of this unit. This gave to Russian media the case to say Kraken is a band of criminals and headcutters

Thank you Haiduk !

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Clearly you can see this photo was taken in the same building where they filmed the lunar module landing. And the note on the back? OBVIOUS. My god those MI6 are damn lazy - they were trying harder during Napoleonic wars.

My top 10 song lyrics of all time include:

If you belieeeve they put a man on the moon (man on the moon)....

 

[Taranis]

↑ "A pro-Russian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint on a street in Mariupol, Wednesday May 4, 2022. ALEXEI ALEXANDROV / AP"

 

Quote

Moscou menace la Suède et la Finlande
Dans une déclaration à l’agence gouvernementale russe TASS, la porte-parole du ministère des affaires étrangères Maria Zakharova a vivement réagi aux souhaits des deux pays scandinaves de rejoindre l’Alliance transatlantique. « Nous avertissons régulièrement et depuis assez longtemps nos voisins du nord de l’Europe qu’une entrée dans l’OTAN menace de déséquilibrer la sécurité européenne », a-t-elle communiqué.

Et d’ajouter : « Dans le cas où la Finlande et la Suède rejoignent l’alliance, il y aurait alors une situation tendue avec la Russie, et toutes les conséquences qui peuvent en découler. Est-ce que c’est ce que les peuples suédois et finlandais recherchent ? a demandé la porte-parole.

↑ Moscow threatens Sweden and Finland
In a statement to Russian government agency TASS, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted strongly to the wishes of the two Scandinavian countries to join the Transatlantic Alliance. "We have been warning our northern European neighbors regularly and for quite a long time that joining NATO threatens to unbalance European security," she said.

And to add: “In the event that Finland and Sweden join the alliance, there would then be a tense situation with Russia, and all the consequences that may ensue. Is this what the Swedish and Finnish people are looking for? asked the spokesperson.

 

↓ Russia seeks to leverage Belarusian military drills to divert Ukrainian forces from Donbass, UK intelligence says

 

↑ "A member of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces walks past a burning storage building after being shelled in the village of Temyrivka on May 4, 2022. The fire lasted for lack of firefighters as civilians evacuated. This village is in “no man's land” where the two sides are so close, in some places about 3 km away, that Ukrainian troops using binoculars can see the Russians digging in their positions. DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP"

[G.I. Joe]

12 minutes ago, Taranis said:

In a statement to Russian government agency TASS, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted strongly to the wishes of the two Scandinavian countries to join the Transatlantic Alliance. "We have been warning our northern European neighbors regularly and for quite a long time that joining NATO threatens to unbalance European security," she said.

Wow. Listening to the Kremlin's public statements these days usually feels like they're trying to set some sort of Guinness World Record for hypocrisy...

[Aragorn2002]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

So many of the failures between 2014 and 2/24/2022 were due to profound misjudgments about both the Ukrainian and Russian governments/states. Pre 2/24 the EU and Nato really did  not believe the Ukrainian government was a dependable partner, and that if they were admitted to the various Western clubs the best case scenario would have been a less functional, but more expensive Hungary. The coherence of the Ukrainian state and nation has been tested and found match the very best quality super alloy made.

I don't think EU/NATO misjudged the Ukrainian government/state. They were and probably still are corrupt to the bone and there were lots of good reasons to compare them to a less functional,  more expensive Hungary. That's still the case. Ukraine has for a substantial part itself to  blame for  this tragedy. And with that I don't mean they deserved to be invaded and killed, but the corruption and chaos in their country made them completly unsuited to be taken up in either EU or NATO. Remember what Kraze said earlier on about the Ukrainians not being in favor of joining NATO before 2014.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't do everything to support them and help them recover once this war is over, but not unconditionally. Zelensky may be the big hero now, but he wouldn't be the first 'great  leader' who turns out to be yet another dictator. Not saying he will, but it's possible. The West has to keep it's head cool (yes, yes, I know, big words coming from me) and make sure Ukraine will be a reinforcement of the EU/NATO, not a weakening. I think one of the few countries that understand that at the moment is Germany, which is still both the engine and the bank of the EU. After all the cheering and euphoria someone still has to pay the bills. Realpolitik isn't a German phrase (for a policy of realism) for nothing.

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DMS]

Replying to everyone: there are war crimes and still war propaganda exist. Sometimes propaganda lies, someone tells truth, sometimes - exaggerated truth. It's a question of tactic. War propaganda can't be "truthful", only idiot would limit himself during war. And yes, it is possible that there are some real war crimes and this time propaganda says true, but next time it invents fictional new case, using trust, raised by previous one. Good propaganda must use real cases. But it is not enough, they must provide flow of events, so public would stay interested.  

Ok, world wars are "dark past", no parallels are acceptable. But, Kuweit girl Nayirah. "Iraqi soldiers take babies out of incubators in a Kuwaiti hospital, take the incubators, and leave the babies to die." You know that she was Kuweit ambassador's daughter, that it was 100% lie, right? There were a lot of real war crimes, committed by Iraq soldiers in Kuweit. But propaganda needs something tremendous to dehumanise enemy. "They are not like us, they are savages". Private Jessica Lynch. You must know, that she was not raped, she was treated well by expecting capitulation Iraq soldiers. There are a lot of Russian propaganda examples, but you believe in existence of Russian propaganda, so no sense in mentioning them.

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical. When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself. You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

[chuckdyke]

41 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Realpolitik isn't a German phrase (for a policy of realism) for nothing.

Nasi sudah bubur they say in Indonesia. Rice for grownups porridge for the kids. What they show on TV is the porridge. 

[FancyCat]

Even if i ignored these accusations of rape, (which I ain't) I think I'm comfortable calling Russian soldiers savages when they go thru town and kill every male below the age 50.

Or bomb a theater full of civilians. Or deport thousands of Ukrainians to Russia without proper ICRC supervision and monitoring. Or any other number of warcrimes being done with evidence piling up.

[Holien]

42 minutes ago, DMS said:

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical.

Yep great point!

Quack Quack Quack...

Watch out for ducks, lots about and I hope justice will catch up with the foul creatures in Ukraine. 

[Aragorn2002]

46 minutes ago, DMS said:

Replying to everyone: there are war crimes and still war propaganda exist. Sometimes propaganda lies, someone tells truth, sometimes - exaggerated truth. It's a question of tactic. War propaganda can't be "truthful", only idiot would limit himself during war. And yes, it is possible that there are some real war crimes and this time propaganda says true, but next time it invents fictional new case, using trust, raised by previous one. Good propaganda must use real cases. But it is not enough, they must provide flow of events, so public would stay interested.  

Ok, world wars are "dark past", no parallels are acceptable. But, Kuweit girl Nayirah. "Iraqi soldiers take babies out of incubators in a Kuwaiti hospital, take the incubators, and leave the babies to die." You know that she was Kuweit ambassador's daughter, that it was 100% lie, right? There were a lot of real war crimes, committed by Iraq soldiers in Kuweit. But propaganda needs something tremendous to dehumanise enemy. "They are not like us, they are savages". Private Jessica Lynch. You must know, that she was not raped, she was treated well by expecting capitulation Iraq soldiers. There are a lot of Russian propaganda examples, but you believe in existence of Russian propaganda, so no sense in mentioning them.

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical. When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself. You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

I will start to take you seriousely after you condemn the BS propaganda of your own regime and the fact that they are brutally bringing war and terror over defenceless civilians. But you carefully stay away from that. Again I would like to point out that your personal avatar is showing NKVD thugs, the tool of terror and massacre of Stalin. You're not objective, you're a coyote in sheep clothing.

[LongLeftFlank]

16 minutes ago, DMS said:

Replying to everyone: there are war crimes and still war propaganda exist. Sometimes propaganda lies, someone tells truth, sometimes - exaggerated truth. It's a question of tactic. War propaganda can't be "truthful", only idiot would limit himself during war. And yes, it is possible that there are some real war crimes and this time propaganda says true, but next time it invents fictional new case, using trust, raised by previous one. Good propaganda must use real cases. But it is not enough, they must provide flow of events, so public would stay interested.  

Ok, world wars are "dark past", no parallels are acceptable. But, Kuweit girl Nayirah. "Iraqi soldiers take babies out of incubators in a Kuwaiti hospital, take the incubators, and leave the babies to die." You know that she was Kuweit ambassador's daughter, that it was 100% lie, right? There were a lot of real war crimes, committed by Iraq soldiers in Kuweit. But propaganda needs something tremendous to dehumanise enemy. "They are not like us, they are savages". Private Jessica Lynch. You must know, that she was not raped, she was treated well by expecting capitulation Iraq soldiers. There are a lot of Russian propaganda examples, but you believe in existence of Russian propaganda, so no sense in mentioning them.

Please don't believe to anything you read, stay critical. When you dehumanise somebody, you dehumanise yourself. You can support Ukraine without believing in this dehumanising BS about Russian soldiers raping toddlers and their wives, advising to rape more. 

You're going to get pounded on here mate, but in consideration of your good service to this community, I will say the following:

1. Most of us here know a fair number of decent Russians (most of them, in fact), and nobody has any doubt you are a decent (Russian) guy. And yes, there are no doubt many decent Russians in the ranks of the invading forces (just as there were in the 1941 Wehrmacht).

2. There are also a fair number of trigger happy "Git Some!" jerks and occasional sadists in the ranks of any army, no matter how highly organised, supplied and disciplined.

3. And, sure, juvenile trash talk on Twitter needs to be substantially discounted unless there's reason to believe it is manifested in action.

.... But Russian soldiers in Ukraine also have many strong incentives to behave brutally and murderously, and few restraints (although there is doubtless also decent behaviour, and probably a fair amount of simply minding one's own business):

a.  weak unit cohesion, bullying NCOs, lack of respect for officers and these days, for the Army itself, given the across the board lousy military performance;

b. Widespread drunkenness in all ranks, including while on duty, with only arbitrary punishments;

c. ranks drafted from the poorest segments of society, not across economic classes and regions (Moscow has suffered few dead, and most are officers);

d. Many of the draftees are Asian and Muslim, with little love for whites, including Russians, who call them 'чурка' (churkas, which is roughly 'wood chips'). It's easy for them to Other the occupied population (and vice versa). That said, the brutality seems to be an equal opportunity recreation; 

e.  the nonstop dehumanising 'Khokol' propaganda being pushed by RU media, probably more on the families than on the soldiers who are in the line. Yeah, that happens in war, even civil wars;

f.  Finally, said pig farmers have caused  many soldiers' comrades know to die horribly, often burning to death in vehicles. Partisan attacks and ambushes -- actual or rumoured -- are particularly resented, as they always are, and used to justify vicious 'reprisals'.

(Yes, of course, they're defending their homeland, but as a combat soldier, you aren't inclined to see things the enemy's way)

g.  I expect the troops get away with war crimes with impunity; there are no disciplinary consequences and officers have more pressing concerns anyway. Feel free to cite counterexamples though, if that is incorrect.

So you'd need to be wilfully blind not to see the toxic mix that makes this behaviour all entirely credible. May this war end swiftly.

[chuckdyke]

putin I won't invade the Ukraine because it is a special operation. I won't declare war on the 9th of may. Who is ever going to take this creature serious?