How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Russian armor (tanks? Or SPGs?) getting wrecked by Ukrainian artillery.  Multiple catastrophic ammo detonations.

 

Some interesting stuff in there!  Looks like two platoons of tanks separated by a couple hundred meters of space.  The jumpy camera is too zoomed in to easily maintain bearings, but it seems that the first platoon suffered two KIA and the third was putting out smoke at the end of the video.

The "lower" tank in the first segment is bogged and slowly grinding its way backwards.  You can see the evidence of this in several portions of the video as two very wide and dark scars followed by normal track marks.

At 46 seconds it looks like the round that missed set off some ERA on the left side of the tank.

The artillery was able to be adjusted in real time to combat the evasive maneuvers, probably resulting in the second tank getting blown to smithereens.  Yet again demonstrating how many traditional techniques for avoiding enemy artillery fire don't work well when there's a proper drone/artillery combo at work.  Back in the old days the kill sack was fairly static and therefore if you managed to drive fast enough in the correct direction you could exit it.  Now it follows you!  This also reduces the number of rounds needed for effect because you don't have to saturate a huge area to increase the odds of getting escapees.

I am still fascinated by the quantity of shell craters in some of these videos.  There has to be hundreds in this one!  I think we're seeing a classic example of what CM1 Operations were designed to portray... multiple fights over the same ground within the same day.

Steve

[evilcommie]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Looks like a modified M113 to me. What is that?

URAN-9 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uran-9

Here is the marketing video. https://youtu.be/b_qMMZqlByg

Edited April 29, 2022 by evilcommie

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, evilcommie said:

URAN-9 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uran-9

Thanks. Didn´t know about it. 

[LukeFF]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Points to note - consistent with what the likes of me, @LukeFFand other veterans have been saying for a while on the long list of buddy aid threads, the extraction attempt was epic, no weapons or ammunition were harvested and nobody tried to give buddy aid from the prone position. 

Yes, this is a textbook example of how casualties are to be treated and evacuated under fire - drag the casualty out of the danger zone and provide as much cover as possible, through the form of covering fire, smoke grenades, etc. Videos like this show that this unit isn't your typical group of cannon fodder shoved into the line with insufficient training - it's pretty much the same way a US military unit would perform a battlefield evacuation.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Interesting if true:

 

 

There's no way to know from just this report if it's true, however it is totally in keeping with the nature of this war and the ethnic hatred within the Russian Federation.

The question on my mind is if the Chechens are being used like WW2 NKVD to "motivate" forces or if it is a more localized clash.

Note that incidents like this are on my mental checklist for indications of a possible "sudden military collapse".  If soldiers are routinely worried about having to fight guys on their own side as well as partisans as well as frontline forces... well... that is not sustainable.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yes, this is a textbook example of how casualties are to be treated and evacuated under fire - drag the casualty out of the danger zone and provide as much cover as possible, through the form of covering fire, smoke grenades, etc. Videos like this show that this unit isn't your typical group of cannon fodder shoved into the line with insufficient training - it's pretty much the same way a US military unit would perform a battlefield evacuation.

Contrast that with the UAV bombing video posted several times in the past page.  Two guys, seriously wounded, were abandoned, a third limped away, and at least two more unwounded ran far away (one of them right by his fallen comrade).  Russia's motto of "No Man Left Behind" applies here, but only because they didn't just leave one man behind.

The timing/luck of the second bomb going right through the sunroof opening is... wow.  Couldn't have a better outcome for the drone operator and a worse one for the Russians.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

How would Nato respond to a Russian nuclear ultimatum? Not the usual vague hints and sabre rattling, but a clear "Stop, or we launch".

I think too many people are asking "Will Putin use nuclear weapons, or won't he?".

A better question might be "If the Russians declare a red line, will we dare cross it?"

The situation currently seems like the new Russian offensive has stalled as predicted, and within a couple of weeks, the Ukrainian Army might start to counterattack.

What happens if UKR is on the verge of taking back the so-called people's republics and Putin says stop or we will use tactical nuclear weapons?

Military losses is one thing, but losing those republics would be a devastating blow to Russia and Putin's personal prestige.

I imagine that is the point where Nato will tell Zelenskyy that they cannot support any further advance.

And I think such an ultimatum might even be given in secret, to make it easier for Nato to back down without being seen to lose face. All the general public will hear is that suddenly, there's a breakthrough in negotiations and a ceasefire has been declared.

Or am I forgetting something here? Apart from maybe overestimating Russia's ability to still act sort of rationally... (and that the Ukrainian Army might not accept an order to cease fire so close to victory)

Edited April 29, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[akd]

23 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Yes, this is a textbook example of how casualties are to be treated and evacuated under fire - drag the casualty out of the danger zone and provide as much cover as possible, through the form of covering fire, smoke grenades, etc. Videos like this show that this unit isn't your typical group of cannon fodder shoved into the line with insufficient training - it's pretty much the same way a US military unit would perform a battlefield evacuation.

AFAIK, this propagandist / videographer has been embedded with a group of Russian marines in Mariupol.

Edited April 29, 2022 by akd

[Desertor]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am still fascinated by the quantity of shell craters in some of these videos.  There has to be hundreds in this one!  I think we're seeing a classic example of what CM1 Operations were designed to portray... multiple fights over the same ground within the same day.

Steve

It will take years to extract all those schrapnell from the fields...

[womble]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

And I think such an ultimatum might even be given in secret, to make it easier for Nato to back down without being seen to lose face.

I think a "secret ultimatum" is no ultimatum at all. Because it gives Putin the option of backing away from it without losing face, if NATO responds with defiance/bluff-calling. NATO's leaders are far less concerned about "face" than they are about "the electorate's reaction to massive civilian casualties and the collapse of civilisation", and making a public ultimatum plays into that position. Just stopping for no reason would be "odd", but backing down in the face of the overt threat of Armageddon could be argued as the rational course of action, at least, if the threat was well publicised.

Of course, it's the very acme of brinksmanship, so maybe well within Putin's wheelhouse, but he'd also have to be predecided that it actually was a real threat, because if he fails to follow through on it, he loses face that he thinks is important.

[TheVulture]

Optimistic twitter thread from Dr Mike Martin. Anyone know anything about who he is as to his credentials as a believable analyst?

Executive summary - Russian offensive in the east has fizzled and will likely culminate in 2-4 weeks, followed by collapse

 

 

[Kraft]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The jumpy camera is too zoomed in to easily maintain bearings, but it seems that the first platoon suffered two KIA and the third was putting out smoke at the end of the video.

Steve

Here is the video in stabilized format

 

[Bearstronaut]

6 minutes ago, Desertor said:

It will take years to extract all those schrapnell from the fields...

Farmers are still finding UXO in northern France from WW1.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

AFAIK, this propagandist / videographer has been embedded with a group of Russian marines in Mariupol.

The drills and evolution of a well trained infantry unit in urban combat are quite interesting. But the enormous operational and even strategic import of that video is good Russian infantry is taking losses in Mariupol sixty something days into this war when the Russians need them DESPERATELY, in every other sector. That is an enormous success for the Ukrainians, almost impossible to overstate.

Edited April 29, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, BFCElvis said:

Recently a forum member expressed something similar. I said something to him about it. A few days later he did it again and got a week's vacation. Please don't repeat what he did.

Copy, understood.

[Bulletpoint]

5 minutes ago, womble said:

I think a "secret ultimatum" is no ultimatum at all. Because it gives Putin the option of backing away from it without losing face, if NATO responds with defiance/bluff-calling. NATO's leaders are far less concerned about "face" than they are about "the electorate's reaction to massive civilian casualties and the collapse of civilisation", and making a public ultimatum plays into that position. Just stopping for no reason would be "odd", but backing down in the face of the overt threat of Armageddon could be argued as the rational course of action, at least, if the threat was well publicised.

Good points. But the ultimatum could be given in secret first, before the liberation of eastern Ukraine becomes imminent, with a threat that it will later be made in public. Such a message might shape western decision making for their desired end game.

In any case, the main point was: What will Nato do in case of a publicly stated threat like that?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Good points. But the ultimatum could be given in secret first, before the liberation of eastern Ukraine becomes imminent, with a threat that it will later be made in public. Such a message might shape western decision making for their desired end game.

In any case, the main point was: What will Nato do in case of a publicly stated threat like that?

It is worth pointing out that the pressure that such a threat creates exists on both sides. Massively, and publicly increasing the risk of a nuclear exchange to cover up his own enormous errors in this war might be the straw that breaks the camels back in Moscow. No rational person in Russia gives a bleep about the DPLR. They are an expensive bleeding sore that won't heal. To mix metaphors horribly.

The more complicated question is whether of not Ukraine is better off leaving them as Russias problem. The brutalized, brainwashed, and no doubt very bitter population of those unhappy excuses for countries are not a prize worth winning.  Ukraine is far better off letting Putin keep them in return for agreeing to EU and NATO membership.

Edited April 29, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Too slow…

Also too slow:

 

that hole in one video - that looks like civilians getting in.  At 0:05 is that a woman with long dark hair? I don't see any webbing or weapons to suggest "russian soldiers".

Edited April 29, 2022 by Kinophile

[Vacillator]

30 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Optimistic twitter thread from Dr Mike Martin. Anyone know anything about who he is as to his credentials as a believable analyst?

Executive summary - Russian offensive in the east has fizzled and will likely culminate in 2-4 weeks, followed by collapse

 

 

Was just about to post the same thing but reported by the BBC, who describe him as 'The war studies visiting fellow at King's College London'.  So I'm not a lot wiser on who he is, but his thoughts are more in line with this forum (or at least some on this forum) than the BBC has generally been until now.

Edit:  Here ya go:

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/people/dr-mike-martin

Edited April 29, 2022 by Vacillator

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

that hole in one video - that looks like civilians getting in.  At 0:05 I'm pretty sure thats a woman with long dark hair. I don't see any webbing or weapons to suggest "russian soldiers".

Agreed, and it looks like it could be an old bald man opening the door. I don't see how it's an "army vehicle" either.

But the resolution is too poor to really tell much detail.

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

that hole in one video - that looks like civilians getting in.  At 0:05 I'm pretty sure thats a woman with long dark hair. I don't see any webbing or weapons to suggest "russian soldiers".

Clearly soldiers in the car.  Not sure about the person helping one in on the passenger side that runs away.  Note the car is parked by the same pile of trash / rations where the soldiers are wounded in the first sequence.

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Putin is trying for Gröfaz now, I'm sure that's going to go well....

 

And who says dreams don't come true?  Putin taking over day to day running of the war -- I've been thinking this is probably what's been going on but now have some corroborating evidence.  Hopefully as he's busy micromanaging down to the BTG level he's also being given false information about unit strength, UKR strength, etc.  Maybe he's like Hitler thinking the soviets are down to their last gasp and are about to collapse -- Steiner's army will cut them off! 

So Mr Putin, Oh Brilliant Genius Omnipotent Manly Man, keep pushing forward w understrength, tired and demoralized units and losing them at the rate of ~company or more per day.  And burn up all your artillery supplies while you are at it.

[c3k]

33 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

that hole in one video - that looks like civilians getting in.  At 0:05 is that a woman with long dark hair? I don't see any webbing or weapons to suggest "russian soldiers".

That video is an end piece from a longer cut. The longer cut shows quite clearly that there are no civilians involved.

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in the NYT today about the attitude of Russia's elite regarding the war and where it's headed.  It's behind a paywall, but the concluding sentiment is what I think most relevant to our discussions here:

Quote

Despite the near-fatal blow to their interests, for now, the Russian business elite appears to be still frozen in fear. “I don’t know who has the balls to fight back,” said one of the business executives.

“But if the war is long, and they begin to lose, then the chances will be greater,” he said. “There will be a serious battle for Donbas and, if it is not successful, then there will be a big battle inside Russia” among elites.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/29/russia-oligarchs-ukraine-invasion-dissent/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F36b56f3%2F626c0918956121755a581b87%2F5b6a1f5bade4e277958a3cb5%2F15%2F72%2F626c0918956121755a581b87

As has been stated over and over again by me and others... time is not on Russia's side for many reasons.

Steve

[Maquisard manqué]

Apologies if this has already been posted. More barbaric terror for The Hague to consider.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61249158