How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Anon052]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

In this night Russians struck with heavy bombs from Tu-22M3 the place, under which was Azov's underground hospital. Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial destruction of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured. Medical teams still working in this hellish conditions and perform surgical operations. The hospital was deployed here on the second day of war, when was decided Azovstal would became the main base of Mariupol defense and its last stand.  

Here the photos, issued two daus ago:

 

 

And in the same day Russian TV showed as Azovstal employee, the engineer, collaborating with Russians, showed to them under which facilities of Azovstal passed underground communications and where the shelters located. Azovstal is huge plant, which bigger than some Ukrainain cities, for example it bigger than Lutsk. So, Russians before this bombed Azovstal randomly. But looks like after this betrayal they adjusted their attacks and achieved some success. Reportedly after heavy bombs exploded, Russian conducted about 50 single sorties with tactical jets and then shelled territory with naval guns.

After attacks finished, Ukr troopers became disassemble ruines:

 

This is pure horror. What a ****ty end to a heroic last stand. What a despicable traitor. He fated to death the civilians, there were a lot of children. I have really no idea what is going on in some humans to do such things. I hope he will get what he deserves.

Are there still defenders able to fight? This situation is so horrible having no real hope. Surrendering means death, living is hell.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Anon052

[MSBoxer]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

The traitor who gave the Russians information showed his face on TV? Can we start a pool on his life expectancy?

The forces in Mariupol have stood as bravely as any in human history.

 

And this is how Thermopylae falls

[MSBoxer]

DBL post

Edited April 28, 2022 by MSBoxer

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nah, not false. Only unsolved question is if it is M142 HIMARS heavy multiple launch rocket system or the M270 heavy multiple launch rocket system. We shall find out soon I guess.

Deliveries of American long-range MLRS to Ukraine began (avia-pro.net)

Doesn't really matter, they both fire the same family of munitions.  HIMARs carry less ammo but are faster and wheeled, the older M270 us tracked and armored up and carries more ammo.  HIMARs has the much newer FCS but apparently the M270 was also retro-fitted.

If the US gave them the MGM-140 with it the Russians are truly screwed.  These systems are ICM monsters.

Basically the UA can hit RA arty well out of c-battery fire range = things just got a LOT worse for the RA, if this is authentic.

Edited April 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Yesterday 72nd mech.brigade made a statemant they liberated one village and showed captured Russians

.Today General Staff reported UKR troops liberated Kutuzivka village, Kharkiv oblast, mayby this was about it. 

Citizens of Kharkiv write they are hearing intensive fight on the north, Russian telegram channels write UKR troops try to retake Rus'ka Lozova village (about 5000 of population).

Also there is information the Chief of General Staff army general Valeriy Gerasimov arrived personally to Izium area to command offensive operation. Our soldiers writes they hear in radio interceptions Russian officers will gather and rise in atatck all even under threat of shooting to maintain decisive breakthrough in nearest days.  

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nah, not false. Only unsolved question is if it is M142 HIMARS heavy multiple launch rocket system or the M270 heavy multiple launch rocket system. We shall find out soon I guess.

Deliveries of American long-range MLRS to Ukraine began (avia-pro.net)

Modern US M270 or HIMARS Already Destroys russians, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Gives a Hint | Defense Express (defence-ua.com)

so you are saying I should still dust off my dancing shoes?  Excellent

My big concern is that the weapons we're sending will be too late.  Not too late in the sense that Ukraine loses the war, but too late to help them smash the current offensive.  Any land they lose now they might have to lose soldiers getting it back later. 

I much prefer military history to military real-time.  This is stressful, we are so in the dark as to where this is all going to end up.  And of course there's Ukrainians dying every day, lives destroyed, children displaced, so the stress for them is infinite.

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, akd said:

Photo is not Ukraine, and there was never any mention of transfer of M270 to Ukraine, only M142 HIMARS.

I have seen information about it first usage two days ago from other source, but it's impossible to verify it in present time

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also there is information the Chief of General Staff army general Valeriy Gerasimov arrived personally to Izium area to command offensive operation. Our soldiers writes they hear in radio interceptions Russian officers will gather and rise in atatck all even under threat of shooting to maintain decisive breakthrough in nearest days.  

Nice, maybe we'll get to add him to the list soon.

[Haiduk]

55 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

Agreed, but the text says it is the downing of a Ka-52 near Kherson?

This is just text ) 

[DesertFox]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

so you are saying I should still dust off my dancing shoes?  Excellent

My big concern is that the weapons we're sending will be too late.  Not too late in the sense that Ukraine loses the war, but too late to help them smash the current offensive. 

Yep, you can get to dancing

I don´t think too late. The fact that Gerasimov (Chief of Staff) is said to supervise the offensive by presense of himself from Izium is very telling to say the least. Maybe they will get him and his entourage with a nice strike of HIMARS/MARS or by other means. Would be a juicy target.

[Battlefront.com]

First video of a Milan ATGM (at least that's what it looks like to me) being used in Ukraine:

 

[MikeyD]

It ain't about the platform, its the missile. HIMARS is just a more cost effective way to move the same missiles around the field.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Long term-lurker to this thread, here.  I played the original Combat Mission and recently bought CMBS.

It's interesting to look at how some of the regional Russia newspapers are reporting on the war dead coming home to their particular regions.  Two examples:

https://baikal-journal.ru/2022/04/28/tut-vsyo-propahlo-mertveczami/
"Everything here smells of the dead" - according to Google translation.

https://www.e-osetia.ru/news/3375492/spisok-pogibsih-v-ukraine-iz-osetii
22:00, April 21
List of those killed in Ukraine from Ossetia - according to Google translation.

I always like to say "hi" to long time CM lurkers and long absent regulars who have piped in to share something with us.  Continuing on with that tradition, I extend to you an official "Hi"

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also there is information the Chief of General Staff army general Valeriy Gerasimov arrived personally to Izium area to command offensive operation. Our soldiers writes they hear in radio interceptions Russian officers will gather and rise in atatck all even under threat of shooting to maintain decisive breakthrough in nearest days.  

Another sign that things aren't going well for the Russian attack.  They appointed a new guy to take control of everything, he launches an attack, it is obviously not producing great results, then his boss comes to the front for (maybe) the first time in the whole war.  I bet Gerasimov isn't there to give him a cookie and a pat on the back.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Now maybe joining the territorial defense isn't as much a life ending event these days but a Vice President of Gazprom deciding to become a traitor to Russia and joining Ukraine is very...funny? He could have had a comfortable existence in neutrality but then again some of these killings are in Europe so I suppose Ukraine may be the safest place for those on Putin's **** list. I hope the Ukrainian government and people give any Russians (citizens) who decide to flee/defect to Ukraine the ability to become Ukrainian citizens, service for citizenship if needed.

Not really relevant to military victory, but social-politically, it lays out that Ukraine has won already and in my opinion, is quite persuasive in backing it up.

Very interesting at 20:41, about the death of Russkiy Mir (Russian World) and the rise of the Intermarium, a concept of a central European geopolitical bloc to compete with Russia and Western Europe, and it's something that makes a lot of sense to me.

Combine Belarus, Poland and Ukraine and you get 90 million people, that would outnumber Germany with 83 million. Just Poland and Ukraine alone would be population wise be competitive with Germany and out number France.

A very potent amount of human capital. Europe would be a fool to turn it away, especially after now, but I'm sure Europe will welcome Ukraine with open arms and it will be extraordinarily positive for European integrity, to have a member state who gave it's blood for Europe. A inspiring sight, one sure to renew (is renewing!) the European project.

In that sense, Putin and Russian imperialists are entirely correct, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire. With his invasion, he has buried the Russian world.

 

[BFCElvis]

1 hour ago, benpark said:

Impeccable taste, indeed.

BAT!!

Toast of London, if you need more of the genius that is Matt Berry.

Sorry for the interruption. I thought I was alone in my interests.

You're not. Peng turned me on to it.

[Haiduk]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another sign that things aren't going well for the Russian attack.  They appointed a new guy to take control of everything, he launches an attack, it is obviously not producing great results, then his boss comes to the front for (maybe) the first time in the whole war.  I bet Gerasimov isn't there to give him a cookie and a pat on the back.

Steve

Russians threw in Izium area additionally about 500 vehicles. Even if this all both combat vehciles and logistic trucks of battalions, this is about new 8 battalions. Dvornikov (or Gerasmov) is worthy heir of Zhukov in a matter "to trow enemy by own soldiers corpses"

Edited April 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, benpark said:

Impeccable taste, indeed.

BAT!!

Toast of London, if you need more of the genius that is Matt Berry.

Sorry for the interruption. I thought I was alone in my interests.

I bought the first season based on the trailers before it was even showing.  Seen the movie a half dozen times, so I was primed and ready for it!

Also, Wellington Paranormal is worth watching.  Spinoff of the movie.

And now that I have violated the Forum rules about off topic posting, I'll zip it and hope Elvis doesn't give me a vacation

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians threw in Izium area additionally about 500 vehicles. Even if this all both combat vehciles and logistic trucks of battalions, this is about new 8 BTGs.

Now, if this were 8 BTGs worth of infantry I would be frightened for Ukraine.  But of course we are really discussing a whole bunch of vehicles and minimal infantry.  We know how well that has been working out for Russia.  I am sure the frontlines in the Izyum area are stressed and overwhelmed in places, but the fact remains that Russia's attack has no chance of succeeding.

Steve

[Combatintman]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians threw in Izium area additionally about 500 vehicles. Even if this all both combat vehciles and logistic trucks of battalions, this is about new 8 BTGs.

Or between 3 and 4 if this diagram is close to the money ...

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Or between 3 and 4 if this diagram is close to the money ...

Damn, I meant battalions ) If BTGs, then 3-4 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Or between 3 and 4 if this diagram is close to the money ...

Sounds like committing the reserve, if they had 22 BTGs up there, this would be last 4.  Or they have already chewed through this and this is coming from higher.

[Combatintman]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Damn, I meant battalions ) If BTGs, then 3-4 

I wouldn't sweat it mate ... you're adding more value to this thread than I am.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

The traitor who gave the Russians information showed his face on TV? Can we start a pool on his life expectancy?

The forces in Mariupol have stood as bravely as any in human history.

 

Yes, in the article a video how he shows all this to Russian journalists on the notebook: https://iz.ru/1325501/2022-04-24/byvshii-rabotnik-azovstali-pokazal-vozmozhnye-ukrytiia-natcionalistov?fbclid=IwAR0myOG8mfoJXb_S9rBuiEQEGgxST9xMFYLvrfwuqyjhm78bwiG1daCVykQ

Alexandr Chuprin, former chief of equipment maintanence and now traitor.  

[akd]

@Haiduk, too many dead officers on necromancer today. Help!