How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

5 minutes ago, Thomm said:

"Meanwhile im Führerbunker irgendwo im Ural:

Anyway, is there any chance that Ukraine troops can reach Mariupol soon enough to make a difference?

Depends on how much stuff is squirreled away in those nuclear bomb proof tunnels.  Clean water, especially.

...I notice the news reports mentioned Ukraine use of AFVs in the operation to extract the 500 troops from the port. That doesn't sound to me like a force that is boiling its boots just yet.

Plus, once both sides settle down to a longer siege and the 'keener' combat ready forces get posted away to other fronts, do the remaining Russians start doing a little business with the 'Azov Nazi SS'? Even selling them ammo, to buy themselves a little peace from sniping. Such things happen.

Edited April 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

42 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Anyway, is there any chance that Ukraine troops can reach Mariupol soon enough to make a difference?

I think that is is something everyone hopes for, but does not dare to speak of. If Azovstal can hold for few more weeks, then maybe? It's hard to predict how the Battle for Donbas will end - if Russians completely collapse and are destroyed/ routed, and not just retreat, then maybe?

[TheVulture]

Russia plane shot down near Izyum - both pilots ejected.

 

 

[Hapless]

Not storming Azovstal is an intersting one.

On the one hand... why try and clear it when you can (hopefully) starve the defenders out? Or at least, let their supply problems grind them down until attacking looks like it might result in fewer casualties. What's interesting is the potential that this reflect shifting political/military priorities: raising a Russian flag over Azovstal and thus the entirety of Mariupol is taking a backseat to something else. Like, for example, a need to get more replacements for other, now more important operations.

On the other hand... not clearing Azozstal because you can't, or because you can't afford to seems like a serious admission of failure, will or capability. It doesn't feel like a victory.

Perhaps more interesting is the reporting that it's Putin's decision not to storm the place. So it's his responsibility: he's no longer the benevolent Tsar mislead by his generals, he's getting personally involved. If that comes back to bite- in the same way that it came back to bite Tsar Nicholas II, then... well that would be interesting. Russia moving from a "We know it's terrible, but if only Putin knew how bad it was then he'd be able to fix it" to "Sergei, get the pitchfork we're going to Moscow" is probably unlikely, but historically similar illusions being shattered hasn't ended well.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Thomm said:

Anyway, is there any chance that Ukraine troops can reach Mariupol soon enough to make a difference?

For this our foces have to defeat Russians on wide front on the south, advance 90 km with limited AD capabilities, engage Russians in Mariupol, breach their outer positions, defeat them in urban fights to join with Mariuopl garrison and... what next? Withraw back by the same 90 km, repelling Russian attacks? Or to sit in siege, but how much ammunition need to bring with you? Alas, unil Russians are grinded this is impossible. This is high risk to lost these "two light brigades" already on march. 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

Is it possible that they are tunnels in Azovstal leading out of the encirclement, or they could dig them somehow, at some point it is possible the russian forces will get bored watching over them. 1500-2000 people are not a small force. And a lot russian forces will be sent towards donbas or Kherson in the meantime. If they are very low on critical supplies though it's difficult to avoid surrendering. 

[TheVulture]

Heart-warming footage of a Russia tank previously from Kyiv area, now burning merrily in Mariupol

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Perhaps more interesting is the reporting that it's Putin's decision not to storm the place. So it's his responsibility: he's no longer the benevolent Tsar mislead by his generals, he's getting personally involved.

Yes, but he is also playing the role of the sensible Tsar NOT ordering another foolish frontal assault like his incompetent generals would. Distancing himself from the mistakes made during in the beginning of the war. That's pretty good PR.

Also, he avoids making martyrs out of the defenders, avoiding another Snake Island episode. It's much less glamorous to get starved into surrendering than to go out in a heroic last stand.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Perhaps more interesting is the reporting that it's Putin's decision not to storm the place.

It has a certain Siege of Leningrad vibe, doesn't it?

[Degsy]

Interview with captured Russian airborne soldier.

A video of a captured Russian soldier from 31st Airborne Assault Brigade, who was part of the first wave to attack (presumably) Hostomel, and is the only survivor of his company. He doesn't appear to be coerced and amongst other things (a) says that the individual soldiers weren't briefed about the mission until they were on the helicopters inbound for the attack (b) describes the effects of Ukrainian artillery on his unit (c) describes another company being merged with his own because their combat losses (d) gives his opinion about his units level of training. 

The interview is 25 minutes long, subtitled,and repays watching.

 

 

[rocketman]

Yesterday, Sweden’s major left newspaper, Aftonbladet, changed their official stance to pro NATO. Pretty good indicator on what we’ll end up doing. Now feels more like an issue of WHEN we apply for membership then IF. 

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

On the other hand... not clearing Azozstal because you can't, or because you can't afford to seems like a serious admission of failure, will or capability. It doesn't feel like a victory

This was my first reaction, it felt like an admission that taking Mariupol has been very costly and they can’t afford the troops it would take to clear the complex.

Most “experts” are now saying they will redeploy some forces from Mariupol but surely they a) are pretty mauled from all the urban warfare and b) needed to maintain the siege and occupy the city?

Interesting.

MMM

Edited April 21, 2022 by Monty's Mighty Moustache

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, Monty's Mighty Moustache said:

This was my first reaction, it felt like an admission that taking Mariupol has been very costly and they can’t afford the troops it would take to clear the complex.

Most “experts” are now saying they will redeploy some forces from Mariupol but surely they a) are pretty mauled from all the urban warfare and b) needed to maintain the siege and occupy the city?

If Russia pulls too many troops out to keep a secure cordon around Azovstal, this city could become a weeks-long nightmare of sniper fire and IED ambushes.

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

If Russia pulls too many troops out to keep a secure cordon around Azovstal, this city could become a weeks-long nightmare of sniper fire and IED ambushes.

They still have drones, if there are any 120mm mortars (seems reasonable to me) there, they can strike most of the build-up area in the city.

[Kinophile]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

 

He's quite detailed, for an OSINT source of daily combat. It seems he's reporting more than inferring, as is the bane of many analyst/aggregators. And going backwards a lot of his stuff checks out. 

 

[The_Capt]

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.

Re-draw the lines on the map and declare the DNR/LNR as "free", point to this strategic land bridge as a major victory and come up with some BS narrative that "this was the plan all along".  I also suspect that the Russian higher-ups already know this hence the somewhat tepid start to this whole thing.

I don't think Putin is in a corner on this, he is just trying to figure out where to paint the arbitrary line of "victory".  This has been a failing on the western analysis side from Day 1, we continue to see this war through our own lens.  What this operation should look like in western frameworks must be what Russia is doing - big sweeps, dramatic deep operations.  What victory looks like, again in western terms, and projecting it on the Russians. 

I am getting the sinking sense that all Putin needed to do was get into Ukraine and shoot up the place, and he could spin it as the greatest victory since the Great Patriotic War.

    

[Der Zeitgeist]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.

Re-draw the lines on the map and declare the DNR/LNR as "free", point to this strategic land bridge as a major victory and come up with some BS narrative that "this was the plan all along".  I also suspect that the Russian higher-ups already know this hence the somewhat tepid start to this whole thing.

I don't think Putin is in a corner on this, he is just trying to figure out where to paint the arbitrary line of "victory".  This has been a failing on the western analysis side from Day 1, we continue to see this war through our own lens.  What this operation should look like in western frameworks must be what Russia is doing - big sweeps, dramatic deep operations.  What victory looks like, again in western terms, and projecting it on the Russians. 

I am getting the sinking sense that all Putin needed to do was get into Ukraine and shoot up the place, and he could spin it as the greatest victory since the Great Patriotic War.

    

I'm getting the feeling something like this may be his exit strategy. Copying something in here that I wrote on another forum:

You know, the most hilarious thing would be if Putin suddenly spins himself into the peacemaker role to prevent further bloodshed and save lifes.

All the pieces for the narrative are there: He didn't really want a war, just a "special operation", his Generals and security services totally ****ed this up, and he only had the choice of escalating to total war or concluding the campaign after liberating Mariupol.

Defying his own out-of control propaganda machine that is calling for WW3 on TV every day to save the children. It would be just the perfect Putin move.

[Nicdain]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.

Re-draw the lines on the map and declare the DNR/LNR as "free", point to this strategic land bridge as a major victory and come up with some BS narrative that "this was the plan all along".  I also suspect that the Russian higher-ups already know this hence the somewhat tepid start to this whole thing.

I don't think Putin is in a corner on this, he is just trying to figure out where to paint the arbitrary line of "victory".  This has been a failing on the western analysis side from Day 1, we continue to see this war through our own lens.  What this operation should look like in western frameworks must be what Russia is doing - big sweeps, dramatic deep operations.  What victory looks like, again in western terms, and projecting it on the Russians. 

I am getting the sinking sense that all Putin needed to do was get into Ukraine and shoot up the place, and he could spin it as the greatest victory since the Great Patriotic War.

    

He just wanted to lay waste on a neighbor country in order to deny or delay its development and welfare. It's a barbaric act, perpetrated by an evil, sick man.

If he just wanted Donbass, why kill civilians/military and destroy properties, as well as send to death ten of thousands of his own soldiers in the useless Kyiv operation? So in Putin mind, life have so little if not no value?

I am not an expert in military operations, but each and every day this war makes very little sense.

[Der Zeitgeist]

Remember the German tanks and IFVs that we don't want to send to Ukraine? We've now come up with a solution. Hold on to your butts, this will be the most German thing you'll read today. 

So, our government has now come up with the convoluted "Ringtausch" scheme. We will send Marders (which we supposedly don't have/can't spare because of NATO commitments) to Slovenia, and Slovenia in turn will send its own M-84A4 "Sniper" tanks to Ukraine.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/waffenlieferungen-an-ukraine-ringtausch-mit-oestlichen-nato-partnern-17972191.html

Edited April 21, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Huba]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.

Re-draw the lines on the map and declare the DNR/LNR as "free", point to this strategic land bridge as a major victory and come up with some BS narrative that "this was the plan all along".  I also suspect that the Russian higher-ups already know this hence the somewhat tepid start to this whole thing.

I don't think Putin is in a corner on this, he is just trying to figure out where to paint the arbitrary line of "victory".  This has been a failing on the western analysis side from Day 1, we continue to see this war through our own lens.  What this operation should look like in western frameworks must be what Russia is doing - big sweeps, dramatic deep operations.  What victory looks like, again in western terms, and projecting it on the Russians. 

I am getting the sinking sense that all Putin needed to do was get into Ukraine and shoot up the place, and he could spin it as the greatest victory since the Great Patriotic War.

    

The first reason is still that Russians don't fully grasp in what **** they really are and are aiming for an actual military victory, at least in Donbas.

I think he is in fact in the corner. He could announce the victory on 9th of May (but this is something he'll do anyway no matter what happens) but the land bridge in it's current form is not feasible at all as long as UAF has something to say about it. If he tries to take Donbas but fails, it is because of NATO, not wanting to destroy the Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, whatever. It's easier to put a positive spin on trying to win then just collapsing without trying.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

I hesitate to count this officer or not, but as you wish ) 

Colonel (DPR-promoted? Or posthumously?) Statsenko Alexey, deputy commander of armament of 1st motor-rifle brigade of DPR. 

Citizen of Russia. "Volunteer". He had a real Russian army lt.colonel rank, so he either retired officer -"volunteer" or "vacationer" and conducted a shadow command of DPR units. So this is a question who promoted him to colonel. 

Killed near (or in) Mariupol 31st of March.

 

Also two more separs high-ranked "officers" deaths, which became knowingly.

"Mayor" (LPR-promoted) Alexzndr Shepel, battalion commander of 2nd motor-rifle brigade LPR. Citizen of Ukraine. Considered as "best battalion comamnder of LPR". Killed 6th of March

"Captain" or even "mayor" (DPR-promoted) Agranovich Sergey, company commander of recon-assault battalion "Sparta" of DPR. Citizen of Ukraine. Fought since 2014. Killed 20th of April in Avdiivka area, Donetsk oblast.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Offshoot]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I know we are in early days here but this whole thing has a half-hearted feel to it.  I am left wondering why Russia is going through all this theatre when it can simply draw new lines on the ground, shift the goal-post and come up with whatever fabricated "victory" it wants, just like Putin did in Mariupol.   

I read an opinion that people around Putin want the war to continue to give them time to cover their backsides after their failings.

"Putin’s domestic political base consists of two rival power blocs: the intelligence apparatus and the military. Both have suffered major blows to their credibility during the war. However, as they continue to jockey for Putin’s favour, both also have a vested interest in prolonging the conflict in some form."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/20/putin-ukraine-russia-humiliated-military-intelligence-war

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Offshoot

[Huba]

Keeping the power North Korea style is better then losing it, if you don't care about the people.

[DesertFox]

33 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Remember the German tanks and IFVs that we don't want to send to Ukraine? We've now come up with a solution. Hold on to your butts, this will be the most German thing you'll read today. 

So, our government has now come up with the convoluted "Ringtausch" scheme. We will send Marders (which we supposedly don't have/can't spare because of NATO commitments) to Slovenia, and Slovenia in turn will send its own M-84A4 "Sniper" tanks to Ukraine.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/waffenlieferungen-an-ukraine-ringtausch-mit-oestlichen-nato-partnern-17972191.html

Yeah. Typisch deutsch 

[Huba]

Reportedly the first Dnieper bridge was hit. Also Biden is speaking live about Ukraine, AFAIK he was to announce another arms package:

Edit:

Nothing about weapons

- 500M for UA budget

- new program for UA refugees in US

Also, helicopter hit by a SAM. Terrible quality unfortunately:

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba