How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Longer version of the drone footage posted a couple of pages ago.  What is the unit?  I see the badge often, but I don't see any brigade badge like it, so not a line brigade?

 

This is 54th mech.brigade (black chevron) and volunteer UAV combat group K-2, fighting long time in composition of this brigade (round camo chevron). The footage is from village Stepne, 15 km south from Maryinka, wich on the moment of filmilng was in neutral zone.

Here is full version

Here is continuos of the video, where UKR soldiers entered to the village

And here is uncutted video with shelling of 2-storey building in the same village. It was posted here, but ended on the moment, when separs ran across railway. In full version, they were eliminated in tree-plant

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

Ukraine Vodka.

Looks like our manufacturers soon can change the name of this alcohol for export. Vodka, which more familiar to western customers, is Russian name of such type of beverages, traditional Ukrainain name for it - horilka. Historically horilka and vodka wasn't the same, but since in 19th century Russian chemist Mendeleyev has found ideal reciepe of vodka 40 % of wheet grain spirit+60 % of water, the difference on industrial level was eliminated

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like our manufacturers soon can change the name of this alcohol for export. Vodka, which more familiar to western customers, is Russian name of such type of beverages, traditional Ukrainain name for it - horilka. Historically horilka and vodka wasn't the same, but since in 19th century Russian chemist Mendeleyev has found ideal reciepe of vodka 40 % of wheet grain spirit+60 % of water, the difference on industrial level was eliminated

Its "gorzałka" in Polish, rather archaic term but still perfectly understandable. 

[acrashb]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is full version

Looks like "every man for himself".  They didn't even pause to drag their downed buddies out of the area - at about 2:13.  I like to believe that a western force would do that differently, even under fire.  Although my little CM pixeltruppen don't, they just run.

Relevant to the game if it modelled dragging-to-safety with certain militaries, because it would result in fewer KIA in the victory conditions as BLS could be done without pushing said pixeltruppen back into the zone under fire.

Edited April 20, 2022 by acrashb

[LongLeftFlank]

40 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Looks like "every man for himself".  They didn't even pause to drag their downed buddies out of the area - at about 2:13.

Old blokes too (like me), based on the PoW. As well as this (this is not the notorious 'Strelkov' unless he's repented, someone pwned his name back in 2014 lol)....

Caption reads: Mobilisation in Lukhansk

 

... Course, then I see this stuff and save @kraze the trouble of growling "f&ck em!"

 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

How Hot Is Ukraine Gonna Get?

Shieldmaiden.

 

 

This is not regular AFU unit, this is "Hospitallers" volunteer medical unit, operating since July 2014 for medical support of VUC Right Sector fighters. The founder of battalion is 18-years old (in 2014) Yana Zinevych, which was heavy injured in 2015 in car accident. Tasks of this unit - first aid on battlefield, evacuation from combat zone, surgical. Their tac-med level, level of equipment and motivation are very high. During the war on Donbas this unit evacuated from battlefield 2750 wounded soldiers of VUC and army units. In 2017 "Hospitallers" had 60 of personnel and aout 100 of reserve.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Yes, that is my sense as well.  The Russian operational trend appears consistently to try and do too much with too little.  Given the "typical" BTG construct:

(Seen these pictures everywhere)

According to the old frontage rules, this outfit could likely cover a 3 km frontage in the old 2 up, one back formation.  The MLRS and I assume UAV support allows it to strike really deeply, it has some flank security and AD so is somewhat self contained (except recon but I will get to that).

So with 16 BTGs, assuming they hold 1/3 in reserve means about 11 BTG up front, which translates to about 33, say 35 kms frontage. A rough eyeball of the Russian start line up there:

Is roughly twice that frontage...at the start line.  That frontage will expand in the advance, not even taking into account attrition.  So either the Russians are using a very different force-to-frontage metric and giving that BTG a 7-10km front which is a lot to ask of 800-1000 pers unless you have got some next-gen ISR and precision lethality.

Which leads me to the next big question?  Where is the Russian recon?  I have been looking around and in all this discussion I have not seen anything on how or where the Russian recon screens are laid down.  There are no dedicated recon units in the BTG (unless I am missing them), I have to assume that the recon is held at formation.  Given the environment that is not a small ask, to screen a 70+km frontage out to 10-20 kms.  This is made worse as the UA method has put eyes with teeth everywhere so you would need detailed/close recon at least out to 4-5km in front of lead BTG elements (the range of the Javelin being 4+km) to even stand a chance.

For historical reference:

So that is a 10-25km frontage for an old MRD, with a recon screen out 50km in front.  That MRD has 9 MRBs and 3 TBs with an entire TR in reserve (so 3 more TBs), for a total of 15 Bn-sized units...for 10-25km.  And there would be another MRD behind it.  To do what the Russians are proposing, in old Soviet terms would require 3-5 full up MRDs, an entire CAA at full strength.

I get frontages have expanded with modern ISR and weaponry (or maybe they haven't on the advance) but this is asking a lot of fresh troops, let alone already mauled ones.  Am I missing something?

I'm reading the recce grouping the same as @Bil Hardenberger; however, you are right about the absence of tactical reconnaissance, I had that sense right from the start and it hasn't changed.  They're either damned good or they've not bothered.  I'm not obsessively tracking vehicle losses but from what I've seen, there hasn't been much in the way of BRMs, PRPs or IRMs getting the good news which tells me they haven't deployed many of them - and leads to the deduction that they've not bothered.  This might have been in the expectation of a short fight when the operation launched - who needs recce when it'll be over in a week etc ...  One consolation is we haven't seen any BRDM RKh or RKhM vehicles cutting about/being towed by tractors/exploding in a fireball. 

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

I'm reading the recce grouping the same as @Bil Hardenberger; however, you are right about the absence of tactical reconnaissance, I had that sense right from the start and it hasn't changed.  They're either damned good or they've not bothered.  I'm not obsessively tracking vehicle losses but from what I've seen, there hasn't been much in the way of BRMs, PRPs or IRMs getting the good news which tells me they haven't deployed many of them - and leads to the deduction that they've not bothered.  This might have been in the expectation of a short fight when the operation launched - who needs recce when it'll be over in a week etc ...  One consolation is we haven't seen any BRDM RKh or RKhM vehicles cutting about/being towed by tractors/exploding in a fireball. 

This matches Oryx.  I count a grand total of 8 BRM-1Ks, 1 x BDRM-2.  They also have MRAPS and the Italian "Rys" which could qualify as light recon vehicles in a pinch.  So not a lot of recon spotted in the KO lists.  So yea, really good and not gotten hit (very doubtful because...recce), they did not push them and just let the Inf Coys try and do the gig because they clearly have too much infantry, or they have been using non-specialized vehicles and they are just buried in the heap of dead IFVs and APC. 

Could explain why the Russian tactical units deeply resemble a blind dog trying to hump a football to death.  Just another weird oddity of this whole thing.

[holoween]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Looks like "every man for himself".  They didn't even pause to drag their downed buddies out of the area - at about 2:13.  I like to believe that a western force would do that differently, even under fire.  Although my little CM pixeltruppen don't, they just run.

Relevant to the game if it modelled dragging-to-safety with certain militaries, because it would result in fewer KIA in the victory conditions as BLS could be done without pushing said pixeltruppen back into the zone under fire.

Im not sure i fully agree with you. In that specific instance at least it would have ment almost certain death for whoever stays behind as the next round lands just a few seconds later. And at 2:35 you can see them draging a guy to safety until they get hit.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

....also, every man for himself is what happens when units have not trained or operated together for long. Not much cohesion, team spirit, fellow feeling.

 

Another interesting thread here, re the RU manpower shortage.

 

 

[Huba]

Here are Girkin vel Strelkovs' thoughts about (lack of) perspective for victory in the Battle of Donbas. Quite interesting read and in line with this forum consensus:.

Edit: finished reading. According to him, if Russia does not mobilize now, in 3 months there will be strategic UA offensive with nothing to stop it on RU side. In line in our M1 discussion

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[acrashb]

39 minutes ago, holoween said:

Im not sure i fully agree with you. In that specific instance at least it would have ment almost certain death for whoever stays behind as the next round lands just a few seconds later. And at 2:35 you can see them draging a guy to safety until they get hit.

 

Those who have been shot at more than I can comment; I can say that my instinctive and trained reaction would be to grab the drag handle to get my buddy - not just some faceless pixels - out of harms way.  Also, we've all seen WWII footage and similar of people being rescued, or at least the attempt, at great risk to the rescuer.
 

37 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

every man for himself is what happens when units have not trained or operated together for long. Not much cohesion, team spirit, fellow feeling

That's what I'm getting at.  It's either short time together (no chance to make "buddies") or cultural issues.  Or its the FNGs that no-one wanted to get to know.

Edited April 20, 2022 by acrashb

[BeondTheGrave]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Could explain why the Russian tactical units deeply resemble a blind dog trying to hump a football to death.

Is it possible that Recce was converted into line companies in favor of UAV assets? UAV's to provide the God's eye ISR while Recce Coys are converted basically into light BTR Coys. I wonder this solely because the TOE Cap's linked seem to make the presumed Recce Coy very BTR heavy. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I count a grand total of 8 BRM-1Ks, 1 x BDRM-2.  They also have MRAPS and the Italian "Rys" which could qualify as light recon vehicles in a pinch. 

MRAPs, IVECO Rys', Tigr - this is sepatare recon battalions stuff of divisional level. Usual tactical recon vehciles in battalions are BRM-1K, BMP-2, BTR-80/82A

Edited April 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Well, first confirmation of arab fighters in Ukraine. On 18th of April in Popasna, Luhansk oblast were killed about dozen of Lybian fighters, probably of Khaftar forces. Looks like they were included in composition of Russian PMC, which oparates in this area and already suffered some losses. Lybians look enough well equipped, dollars and lybian currency was found. Judging on writings in their notepads, they knew Russian languge at least on basic level.

But of course, we can't say about 10000-20000 of Arab merceneries. I suppose their number can be several hundreds as maximum. 

 

GRAPHIC PHOTOS!:  https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3335495/10_liviyitsiv_zi_skladu_rosiyiskoyi_pvk_vagner_znyscheno_ukrayinskymy_voyinamy_v_popasniyi_fotoreportaj

Edited April 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

Seems Panzerhaubitze 2000 is heading to Ukraine. No idea on the timeline. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery

"Germany will provide Ukraine with ammunition and training for heavy artillery as Chancellor Olaf Scholz comes under pressure to give more support to the effort to fend off Russian forces.

The training and ammunition are for the PzH 2000, a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, which the Netherlands is sending to Ukraine, according to a senior government official."

 

and a free to read source:

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-20/germany-provide-ukraine-rockets-training-artillery-5744889.html

"The training and ammunition are for the PzH 2000, a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, which the Netherlands is sending to Ukraine, according to a senior government official. The training could be provided in Poland or Germany, but not in Ukraine because of ongoing attacks from Russia, said the official, who asked not to be identified because talks between NATO allies and Ukraine are confidential."

[dan/california]

 

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

How Hot Is Ukraine Gonna Get?

Shieldmaiden.

 

 

Her great grandchildren will still be calling Russians orcs.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems Panzerhaubitze 2000 is heading to Ukraine. No idea on the timeline. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery

"Germany will provide Ukraine with ammunition and training for heavy artillery as Chancellor Olaf Scholz comes under pressure to give more support to the effort to fend off Russian forces.

The training and ammunition are for the PzH 2000, a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, which the Netherlands is sending to Ukraine, according to a senior government official."

 

and a free to read source:

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-04-20/germany-provide-ukraine-rockets-training-artillery-5744889.html

"The training and ammunition are for the PzH 2000, a self-propelled, rapid-fire artillery system, which the Netherlands is sending to Ukraine, according to a senior government official. The training could be provided in Poland or Germany, but not in Ukraine because of ongoing attacks from Russia, said the official, who asked not to be identified because talks between NATO allies and Ukraine are confidential."

This will be a qualitative change in UA artillery.  Netherlands should have around 30 in storage, so six batteries of four vehicles each?  Do we know if those are integrated with Excalibur? I wonder also if Germans are willing to part with some of the SMArt rounds?

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[Probus]

Has this story been confirmed:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/germany-pledges-to-maintain-ukraines-military-equipment-says-direct-arms-support-has-been-maxed-out

If true, how does it affect the Leopards?

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Her great grandchildren will still be calling Russians orcs.

This gets to one of my pet peeves: older generations are always pissing on the young generation.  In a post early in this thread I said that we're going to see a lot of these (allegedly) lazy, phone-addicted, pampered young people turn into heroes & martyrs.  It's the one thing I've been right about in this thread.  These kids are amazing.  They are rising above & beyond the challenge they are facing.  Next time you hear older folks disparaging the young, be sure to correct them.

So Day 3 of the Great Patriotic Offensive to End Naziism and so far the score is Steve & TheCapt = 3, TV pundits = zero.  Hopefully this will continue.  My wife was freaked because she heard they took some city (Kreminna) and I showed her a map that it was just a small gain and that thrust was still being contested and seems to be stalled. 

And while I know governments want credit for sending arms, I think I would also prefer to hear of some of this AFTER it's been safely delivered to Ukraine.  Don't want to give Russia more info than they deserve on what's coming on the next train.

 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This gets to one of my pet peeves: older generations are always pissing on the young generation.  In a post early in this thread I said that we're going to see a lot of these (allegedly) lazy, phone-addicted, pampered young people turn into heroes & martyrs.  It's the one thing I've been right about in this thread.  These kids are amazing.  They are rising above & beyond the challenge they are facing.  Next time you hear older folks disparaging the young, be sure to correct them.

So Day 3 of the Great Patriotic Offensive to End Naziism and so far the score is Steve & TheCapt = 3, TV pundits = zero.  Hopefully this will continue.  My wife was freaked because she heard they took some city (Kreminna) and I showed her a map that it was just a small gain and that thrust was still being contested and seems to be stalled. 

And while I know governments want credit for sending arms, I think I would also prefer to hear of some of this AFTER it's been safely delivered to Ukraine.  Don't want to give Russia more info than they deserve on what's coming on the next train.

 

Tell her not to worry.  The Russians could not have picked a worse battlefield and that is saying something.  Unless the UA folds for some unforeseen reasons, the terrain is very much on their side along that axis.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tell her not to worry.  The Russians could not have picked a worse battlefield and that is saying something.  Unless the UA folds for some unforeseen reasons, the terrain is very much on their side along that axis.

Funny, I showed her a similar map.  I love all that forested terrain running along the road, ambush alley.  And once RA runs that gauntlet, they come to a swampy area where they have a sharp turn in the road that will make them slow down and bunch up.  Yeah, good luck with that.  Even if the lead elements are too powerful to take on, the follow on forces will be smashed.  Unless RA has multiple companies of skilled infantry to clear those woods.....oh, wait, they don't. 

I wonder how wet those fields are right now?  Some showers friday are predicted but other than that no rain for a week.

[sross112]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This gets to one of my pet peeves: older generations are always pissing on the young generation.  In a post early in this thread I said that we're going to see a lot of these (allegedly) lazy, phone-addicted, pampered young people turn into heroes & martyrs.  It's the one thing I've been right about in this thread.  These kids are amazing.  They are rising above & beyond the challenge they are facing.  Next time you hear older folks disparaging the young, be sure to correct them.

 

Agreed. I think every generation looks at those that follow it and says the world isn't going to make it because of speak easy's, rock n roll, hippies, dungeons and dragons and now smart phones. One of my favorite experiences with this was watching 3 year Marines talk about the Old Corps and how the new Marines just weren't as hard. LOL. 

Millennials have been given a horrible reputation and I blame the media. Of course they are going to run a story on how a pampered IV league college student needs an emotional support dog after an election doesn't end how they want it to. They aren't going to profile the 20 years of war fought by members of the same generation that showed amazing resilience, courage and fortitude bearing untold hardship and sacrifices. It just doesn't get the same reaction. MSM is the base cause of everything getting blown out of proportion nowadays. That and the cultural shift to paint everything with as wide a brush as possible also fueled by MSM. 

There is always that small slice that manages to get the lion's share of attention and then the rest of the group gets labeled or painted with the same brush. All millennials are lazy, all cops are bad, all whites are racist, all democrats are alt left radicals, etc. Pretty frustrating when anyone with half a brain knows that none of that is true and the vast majority of people don't fit into a nice neatly labeled box. 

[Battlefront.com]

On the topic of recon...

Traditionally Soviet forces had most of their true recon assets located higher up the food chain than in the West.  Recon units require special training and equipment, two things which means they are expensive.  Russia, like the Soviet Union, is always looking for a shortcut.  This means that everything is one level up from where it would be in the West.  Western Battalion level assets would be found at the Russian Regimental level.  Western Brigade capabilities would be found at the Russian Divisional level.  Western Corps and Divisional abilities held by Russian Army and District levels.

Getting to the point that Combatintman raised about the possibility that serious Russian recon elements aren't in this fight, that does appear to be the case and it also makes sense.  Those assets are not routinely part of the BTGs so there would have to be a deliberate decision to commit them rather than a deliberate decision to omit them.  Since the BTGs aren't used to operating with these assets, it's no big deal to them tactically that they aren't in the fight.

I suspect that Russia doesn't think they are necessary.  Throw some drones into the air, check ahead, then drive on out. 

I don't think the lack of recon assets in play is hurting Russia too much.  I think what would most likely happen is they would drive out some place, get whacked, and the attack would go forward anyway.  There's really not much room for alternative planning for this particular operation.

Steve

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

On the topic of recon...

Traditionally Soviet forces had most of their true recon assets located higher up the food chain than in the West.  Recon units require special training and equipment, two things which means they are expensive.  Russia, like the Soviet Union, is always looking for a shortcut.  This means that everything is one level up from where it would be in the West.  Western Battalion level assets would be found at the Russian Regimental level.  Western Brigade capabilities would be found at the Russian Divisional level.  Western Corps and Divisional abilities held by Russian Army and District levels.

Getting to the point that Combatintman raised about the possibility that serious Russian recon elements aren't in this fight, that does appear to be the case and it also makes sense.  Those assets are not routinely part of the BTGs so there would have to be a deliberate decision to commit them rather than a deliberate decision to omit them.  Since the BTGs aren't used to operating with these assets, it's no big deal to them tactically that they aren't in the fight.

I suspect that Russia doesn't think they are necessary.  Throw some drones into the air, check ahead, then drive on out. 

I don't think the lack of recon assets in play is hurting Russia too much.  I think what would most likely happen is they would drive out some place, get whacked, and the attack would go forward anyway.  There's really not much room for alternative planning for this particular operation.

Steve

 

I get how Russians could say "let's just scout w drones" but for small groups of ATGM-armed enemy infantry that's asking for disaster.  It's not impossible to hide when there's at least some forested or broken terrain.  Seems crazy to lose BMPs and tanks instead of TIGRs just to find out the road isn't safe.  'course, UKR troops would probably just say "let the tigr pass"