How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[AlsatianFelix]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Russians bailed on taking Kyiv, because it was just too expensive to keep trying, or even hold the ground they HAD taken. There is no reason the Donbas can't go the same way.

Before February, Ukraine fought cautiously in Donbas trying to not provoke a more widespread war. Now that that larger war exists anyway I think we'll see a more determined Ukrainian effort in Donbas. Basically if Ukraine wins on every front, there's no reason for Donbas to be different.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, chris talpas said:

A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.

This is something I was just discussing on another forum. Theoretically, it is possible for Russia to bring some modest reinforcements through it's inland waterways - Stereguschiy class from Baltic fleet is equipped with light verions of S400 Redut, and might just be able to squeeze through the canals. This is just 3 ships, not comparable to Moskva in AA, but especially C&C capabilities.

[Der Zeitgeist]

10 minutes ago, db_zero said:

CMO is a good sim. The database is extensive. Covers air as well as naval aspects and like CM a professional version is used for training.

I'm still thinking about getting it some day. I was quite disappointed though with the first version (CMANO), especially because of the extensive need for scripting to prevent the almost nonexistant tactical AI from getting their units killed.

[db_zero]

3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I'm still thinking about getting it some day. I was quite disappointed though with the first version (CMANO), especially because of the extensive need for scripting to prevent the almost nonexistant tactical AI from getting their units killed.

I about to say the major flaw in CMO is lack of integrated multi-player. Playing against another human is what would take it to the level of Combat Mission-that’s what sets CM apart. No AI can match another human.

I get bored with CMO after a while because I can predict what it’s going to do…

There is some PBEM out for it but I haven’t tried it yet and there is little on the matrix site so seems like it’s not officially supported.

I’ve asked for wego and MP features but in surveys seems like most players are more interested in the “chrome” stuff.

[Maquisard manqué]

Re the very low number of Moskva sailors pulled out of the drink, would it have had its full complement after the damage and while under tow (if it was)?

I Guess “full complement” is also unlikely on any given day for the Russian military, given what we’ve seen in the thread already.

I just can’t think you’d keep the whole crew on if there was a significant chance of it sinking. Damage Control and extra teams on the same duty, yes, but otherwise I’d assume you’d get as many others off the ship as possible. But then, I’m a land lubber - and someone who gives more than a fig for human life. The latter not being something one could rationally accuse the Russian high command of.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

true, but the PR value is off the chart.  No matter how Russia spins this for home consumption - even if they say it was due to issues on the ship itself, it is still a huge blow to any sense of Russia's military superiority. 

I’m not sure that makes it better either.

“Ukraine didn’t sink it. We managed to catch it on fire which spread to the magazines and the explosion caused so much damage it eventually sank in bad weather.”

Seems more honorable to have lost it to combat, even if was a case where they shouldn’t have. 

Dave

[Kinophile]

Plus easier to get the families on side v the dastardly Ukies. But fire due to Incompetence will just make them mad at the Fleet.

Man, autocratic regimes can really fold themselves into insane shapes when they try to maintain their propaganda "logic".

[womble]

Something that's puzzled me about the Moskva getting hit: where was the rest of her task force, specifically the escorts...? Isn't the point of a modern naval task force to provide mutually supporting overlapping fields of defensive fire to protect the assets that project force?

What role does the Slava class fulfill? It's got more ASM than a Ticonderoga, but even though it looks like it's meant to provide substantial AD capabilities, it's not in the same class as an Aegis platform... Is it a defensive "strongpoint" for the TF, or is that secondary to its Vulkan tubes?

 

[OldSarge]

8 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Re the very low number of Moskva sailors pulled out of the drink, would it have had its full complement after the damage and while under tow (if it was)?

I Guess “full complement” is also unlikely on any given day for the Russian military, given what we’ve seen in the thread already.

I just can’t think you’d keep the whole crew on if there was a significant chance of it sinking. Damage Control and extra teams on the same duty, yes, but otherwise I’d assume you’d get as many others off the ship as possible. But then, I’m a land lubber - and someone who gives more than a fig for human life. The latter not being something one could rationally accuse the Russian high command of.

I read earlier this morning before the ship's sinking was confirmed that 54 crew had been rescued by a passing Turkish tanker. I haven't been able to find anymore information on it.

https://www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2022/37901/russian-flagship-cruiser-moskva-hit-two-missiles/

"Apr 14 1200 UTC UPDATE: According to Russian official statements issued by MoD, MOSKVA is still afloat, attempts to tow cruiser to Naval base in Crimea are under way. All crew evacuated to other Navy ships, says MoD. Ukraine insists cruiser sank or sinking. A post in social nets, posted obviously, by seaman, claims 54 MOSKVA crew were rescued by nearby Turkish tanker (there is Turkish tanker nearby, according to AIS data). A mess of information, misinformation and disinformation, of truth and fakes. "

Edited April 14, 2022 by OldSarge
Typos

[sburke]

never mind

Edited April 14, 2022 by sburke

[DesertFox]

 

 

[womble]

And the other thing about the Moskva's TF companions: why was a "passing Turkish tanker" even necessary? Surely the TF would be best-placed to either take crew off the burning ship, or pick up the skeleton crew managing the tow from on board once they abandon ship when it's clear she's past saving.

[db_zero]

23 minutes ago, womble said:

Something that's puzzled me about the Moskva getting hit: where was the rest of her task force, specifically the escorts...? Isn't the point of a modern naval task force to provide mutually supporting overlapping fields of defensive fire to protect the assets that project force?

What role does the Slava class fulfill? It's got more ASM than a Ticonderoga, but even though it looks like it's meant to provide substantial AD capabilities, it's not in the same class as an Aegis platform... Is it a defensive "strongpoint" for the TF, or is that secondary to its Vulkan tubes?

 

That’s a good question, but to be fair there probably were other ships in the TF but tens of miles away and they may have fled. Unlike WW2 ships in modern TFs are widely dispersed.

Also Seems like the Russian Navy has same mentality as the Army…don’t give a damn about the men serving under you or other ships just scattered and ran.

Edited April 14, 2022 by db_zero

[OldSarge]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

And the other thing about the Moskva's TF companions: why was a "passing Turkish tanker" even necessary? Surely the TF would be best-placed to either take crew off the burning ship, or pick up the skeleton crew managing the tow from on board once they abandon ship when it's clear she's past saving.

So far, the Russians haven't been able to demonstrate that they have their act together on land or at sea. So I'll take 'incompetence' for $200 Alec.

[dan/california]

I wouldn't rule out that any other significant Russian ships just ran as fast as they could, in case the Ukrainians had more missiles. It is getting ever harder to think of the Russians as functioning military, as opposed to particularly well armed mob.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

I wouldn't rule out that any other significant Russian ships just ran as fast as they could, in case the Ukrainians had more missiles. It is getting ever harder to think of the Russians as functioning military, as opposed to particularly well armed mob.

This is a good thought I think. UA said that Moskva was hit by 2 missiles, not that they only launched 2 against a whole group of ships. Pure speculation of course, but it would make sense to launch as big a strike as possible.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Huba

[DesertFox]

Not a KIA, but out of business anyways...

 

 

[db_zero]

We don’t know the true facts yet but you would think if it was really an accident and not a missile attack other ships in TF would have stuck around and assisted.

[MSBoxer]

Is there any evidence that it was ever actually under tow?

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Is there any evidence that it was ever actually under tow?

There is an irritating LACK of evidence for much of anything, at least that is public. I am pretty certain the Russians aren't faking the demise of their flagship, though. Since the military sensors that matter are a LOT harder to fool. It is a pretty good lesson of how much less we know about what happens on a stormy night out of sight of land. Maybe the Pentagon will eventually share. I think there was a Global hawk over the Black Sea when the ship actually sunk, if there is any validity to the Russian timeline

[akd]

40 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Plus easier to get the families on side v the dastardly Ukies. But fire due to Incompetence will just make them mad at the Fleet.

Man, autocratic regimes can really fold themselves into insane shapes when they try to maintain their propaganda "logic".

They’ll find a saboteur amongst the dead.  Someone with Ukrainian roots no doubt.

[DesertFox]

Happy Easter weekend?...

 

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Based off the game Harpoon. I bought my first PC just to play Harpoon.

Nice!  There aren't any good multiplayer games like Harpoon, are there?  

I played harpoon multiplayer twice (at least I think it was Harpoon. Pretty sure it was). It was a blast, but lenghty and buggy back then.

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not a KIA, but out of business anyways...

 

 

wow we are back to Stalin's days.  Every bad thing that occurs must be due to sabotage, because the state (Putin) is infallible.  This is great!!!!  Yeah, keep purging Putler (Putlin?).  Keep making folks think they might have greater survival chance through a coup then through service to the state.  What could go wrong?

[Huba]

Boom!