How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The Steppenwulf]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

We hear that an entire security branch was jailed/sidelined.  Generals being imprisoned.  At first one might say "punishment for incompetence".  But the numbers that are being reported seem to indicate Putin is purging based on fear of these power centers staging a coup.  He may or may have evidence of coup planning, but high level purging is a big indicator of serious problems at levels close to Sauron's idiot twin. 

+ 1  Exactly what I was thinking when Desert Fox reported it a few pages back. Kremlin claims the 'purge' is due to generals embezzling funds earmarked for military. Sure it could be that, but given that this is the official sort of line we'd expect to hear suggests it's something they actually don't want us to know (if it was incompetence - why not state it? ). So it does smell very suspiciously more like dissent or even a plot of some kind.
 

[Probus]

Any chance the Moskva hit a mine?  That could cause it to capsize pretty quick. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Probus

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Wikipedia is your friend:

Neutron bomb - Wikipedia

As is Atomic Rockets:

Projectile Weapons - Atomic Rockets (projectrho.com) - scroll down to the "real science neutron bomb" section, or just search for "designed to maximize lethal neutron radiation".

Essentially, in an enhanced radiation bomb, the recipe is adjusted so that much less of the output is x-rays (which cause the blast) and much more is neutrons. I'm not an expert either, but that's what I've read.

At the time, thought to be more effective against MBTs (which are resistant to blast) than similar-yield traditional fusion bombs.

As for the media hype, many people become deranged by the thought of anything nuclear - there was a lot of BS floating around at the time.

Yes, not so much, yes unless with thick concrete walls, not so much, and not really.  Earth absorbs neutrons fairly quickly.  Apparently there is some debate about use against modern tanks due to the thickness of armour.

I used Wikipedia to refresh my memory, but we have a better source-Ultradave-this is his area of expertise.

I figured he would chime in on this and he didn’t disappoint, now we all are better informed.

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, Probus said:

Any chance the Moskva hit a mine?  That could cause it to capsize pretty quick. 

two mines with jet engines strapped to them

You can also say Moskva successfully demilitarized Ukrainian naval defenses by lowering the amount of our antiship missiles by two.

Edited April 14, 2022 by kraze

[Erwin]

33 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

When we think of collapse we think of the russian army, but collapse can also happen at the top.  Things like this make me think there's possibility of that.

While "anything can happen" it's unlikely that Putin will be removed.  He has spent decades surviving and flourishing as the head of what is often described as a mafia-like organization.  It would be naive to assume he hasn't spent many years figuring out how to survive in the case of many negative events such as are occurring.  One can be confident that Putin and Russia have, since the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, spent those years figuring out what the west can do to Russia and coming up with counter-moves.  

The most interesting facet of this war that has barely been discussed is the shortage of microchips that are needed to make the advanced weapon systems like ATGM's and PGM's etc function.  Russia must be going thru its stocks... and the only place that it can acquire more would be AFAIK China.  Hence Ms. Yellen's recent warnings to China not to assist Russia lest sanctions be applied to China. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-will-not-be-indifferent-those-who-undermine-russia-sanctions-yellen-2022-04-13/

However, the Russo-Sino border is porus and AFAIK open. A few small truck loads of microchips will be all but impossible to stop.

Another interesting aspect is that the Siberian troops sent to Ukraine can easily hide Chinese "observers" and "advisors".  May will bring more clarity as to Russian and Chinese intentions.  

In the meanwhile it feels like we're talking like the German generals in mid 1941.  "Russia has already lost, surrender is imminent..." etc

Edited April 14, 2022 by Erwin

[Probus]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

two mines with jet engines strapped to them

You can also say Moskva successfully demilitarized Ukrainian naval defenses by lowering the amount of our antiship missiles by two.

Lol @kraze!

[db_zero]

52 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am not very interested in the nuke discussion, he will or he won't and it could go a million different ways.  And he probably won't.  What is for sure is he has a war to fight and also needs to hold on to power when it would seem that lots of folks want him out of power for this mess.

And we see things like the above -- this is big stuff.  We hear that an entire security branch was jailed/sidelined.  Generals being imprisoned.  At first one might say "punishment for incompetence".  But the numbers that are being reported seem to indicate Putin is purging based on fear of these power centers staging a coup.  He may or may have evidence of coup planning, but high level purging is a big indicator of serious problems at levels close to Sauron's idiot twin. 

When we think of collapse we think of the russian army, but collapse can also happen at the top.  Things like this make me think there's possibility of that.

I’d prefer it was not even on the table, but Putin has raised the issue and sticking your head in the sand and pretending it will go away is the exact same mistake the West made in dealing with Putin in the past. Even Zelinsky didn’t think Putin was actually going to send in troops.

Now we have large segments of the US in favor of a No Fly Zone and it was argued that most don’t even know what a no fly zone actually entails-a willingness to engage Russians over Ukraine and attacking ADA sites in Russia.

You bring up nukes and now the response by many is “well most will probably be duds”

There’s been a lot of Putin won’t do this or probably won’t do that which has proved to be incorrect.

You go on TV and you see retired generals advocating more aggressive actions and policies that could easily lead to escalation.

Back in 1950 the War in Korea which started out poorly suddenly changed. So did our posture and McArthur said China is nothing to be worried about…

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by db_zero

[sross112]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Russia media claims that the Moskya is still afloat and being towed to port by tug.

https://t.me/rian_ru/158715

 

LOL, guess with all the tractor videos and memes I've seen my first thought was "Sevastopol or Odessa?"

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Erwin said:

While "anything can happen" it's unlikely that Putin will be removed.  He has spent decades surviving and flourishing as the head of what is often described as a mafia-like organization.  It would be naive to assume he hasn't spent many years figuring out how to survive in the case of many negative events such as are occurring.  One can be confident that Putin and Russia have, since the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, spent those years figuring out what the west can do to Russia and coming up with counter-moves.  

The most interesting facet of this war that has barely been discussed is the shortage of microchips that are needed to make the advanced weapon systems like ATGM's and PGM's etc function.  Russia must be going thru its stocks... and the only place that it can acquire more would be AFAIK China.  Hence Ms. Yellen's recent warnings to China not to assist Russia lest sanctions be applied to China. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-will-not-be-indifferent-those-who-undermine-russia-sanctions-yellen-2022-04-13/

However, the Russo-Sino border is porus and AFAIK open. A few small truck loads of microchips will be all but impossible to stop.

Another interesting aspect is that the Siberian troops sent to Ukraine can easily hide Chinese "observers" and "advisors".  May will bring more clarity as to Russian and Chinese intentions.  

In the meanwhile it feels like we're talking like the German generals in mid 1941.  "Russia has already lost, surrender is imminent..." etc

Note: chips are not a fungible cross platform technology. Russian military hardware has very particular needs and those needs are often in areas where China itself is currently feeling the pinch. There's also little appetite in Chinese industrial sectors to risk 70% of their business for 5% of their business in Russia. Notably, Sinopec is privately giving every signal of not renewing Russian oil/gas contracts as they expire. Russia needs China vastly more than China needs Russia and China puts a lot at risk for a paltry reward. 

Broadly speaking, Xi doesn't want Russia to lose but he's no Kaiser Wilhelm. He's not going to take serious risks for his Austro-Hungarian style ally.

Edited April 14, 2022 by billbindc

[sburke]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1514498197489659909.html

Initial analysis of the sinking of the mosck

The pic at the end of Putin crying is priceless

[Commanderski]

[panzermartin]

24 minutes ago, Erwin said:

While "anything can happen" it's unlikely that Putin will be removed.  He has spent decades surviving and flourishing as the head of what is often described as a mafia-like organization.  It would be naive to assume he hasn't spent many years figuring out how to survive in the case of many negative events such as are occurring.  One can be confident that Putin and Russia have, since the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, spent those years figuring out what the west can do to Russia and coming up with counter-moves.  

The most interesting facet of this war that has barely been discussed is the shortage of microchips that are needed to make the advanced weapon systems like ATGM's and PGM's etc function.  Russia must be going thru its stocks... and the only place that it can acquire more would be AFAIK China.  Hence Ms. Yellen's recent warnings to China not to assist Russia lest sanctions be applied to China. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-will-not-be-indifferent-those-who-undermine-russia-sanctions-yellen-2022-04-13/

However, the Russo-Sino border is porus and AFAIK open. A few small truck loads of microchips will be all but impossible to stop.

Another interesting aspect is that the Siberian troops sent to Ukraine can easily hide Chinese "observers" and "advisors".  May will bring more clarity as to Russian and Chinese intentions.  

In the meanwhile it feels like we're talking like the German generals in mid 1941.  "Russia has already lost, surrender is imminent..." etc

Yes I don't really understand that about the chips shortage. China can provide these (and other stuff) without anyone noticing. 6 huge transport Y 20 landed in Belgrade the other day with weapons, nothing really happened except warnings to Serbs. 

[Gpig]

This assessment sounds like she is still under her own power (I was hoping to see a capsized hull in a satellite pic).

BBC

"Kirby said the damaged Russian warship was afloat and "making her own way across the Black Sea" - "probably" for repairs at Sevastopol in Crimea."

 

[Kinophile]

Edited April 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I don't really understand that about the chips shortage. China can provide these (and other stuff) without anyone noticing. 6 huge transport Y 20 landed in Belgrade the other day with weapons, nothing really happened except warnings to Serbs. 

as noted above, chips aren't like sending screws.  They are far more specific.  So no it isn't like China can raid the Apple factory and say here are a bunch Vlad.  On top of that as others have noted it is highly unlikely China is going to spare much of anything for Vlad.  I don't think China really wants to expend any effort on this.  They see the handwriting on the wall and know that what they want from Russia can be gotten a  lot easier if Russia fails.  They would also like this to end.  The hyper activity in the West of rearming and sanctions is an uncomfortable situation for Xi.  Russia as a  military ally is completely off the table now.  This war has shown how little Xi can rely on them as an effective partner.

Edited April 14, 2022 by sburke

[Bulletpoint]

18 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I don't really understand that about the chips shortage. China can provide these (and other stuff) without anyone noticing.

Or surely they could just have stockpiled chips and other special items they can not produce in Russia? If Putin has planned this war for a long time, surely he must have realised they'd get sanctioned...

[keas66]

47 minutes ago, Erwin said:

While "anything can happen" it's unlikely that Putin will be removed.  He has spent decades surviving and flourishing as the head of what is often described as a mafia-like organization.  It would be naive to assume he hasn't spent many years figuring out how to survive in the case of many negative events such as are occurring.  One can be confident that Putin and Russia have, since the 2014 invasion of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, spent those years figuring out what the west can do to Russia and coming up with counter-moves.  

The most interesting facet of this war that has barely been discussed is the shortage of microchips that are needed to make the advanced weapon systems like ATGM's and PGM's etc function.  Russia must be going thru its stocks... and the only place that it can acquire more would be AFAIK China.  Hence Ms. Yellen's recent warnings to China not to assist Russia lest sanctions be applied to China. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-allies-will-not-be-indifferent-those-who-undermine-russia-sanctions-yellen-2022-04-13/

However, the Russo-Sino border is porus and AFAIK open. A few small truck loads of microchips will be all but impossible to stop.

Another interesting aspect is that the Siberian troops sent to Ukraine can easily hide Chinese "observers" and "advisors".  May will bring more clarity as to Russian and Chinese intentions.  

In the meanwhile it feels like we're talking like the German generals in mid 1941.  "Russia has already lost, surrender is imminent..." etc

You seem like you have a deep seated admiration/fear of Putin and the Russians and are having a very hard time adjusting your worldview to the events unfolding before us .

[The Steppenwulf]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I don't really understand that about the chips shortage. China can provide these (and other stuff) without anyone noticing. 6 huge transport Y 20 landed in Belgrade the other day with weapons, nothing really happened except warnings to Serbs. 

Those weapons were delivered under a supply contract agreed sometime ago. They were just delivered ahead of the agreed supply time, which is a matter between Serbia and China. What Serbia might want weapons now for, is another question - we know they have an ongoing dispute with Kosovo and the latter have raised their concerns about the possibility of Serbian aggression whilst the west has its focus elsewhere.

Regardless, for reasons provided above, this is false equivalence with respect to supplying Russia with microchips 'without anyone noticing'.  

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Or surely they could just have stockpiled chips and other special items they can not produce in Russia? If Putin has planned this war for a long time, surely he must have realised they'd get sanctioned...

Putin gave his troops 3 days worth of supply.  Why would he even have considered stockpiling chips?  And which chips?  They aren't universal.  I really wish folks would stop bandying around this expression as if they are a plug and play component that can be used in anything.  It hurts my brain.

[The_Capt]

And on Russia and the long game.  Perun has a new one up:

 

[Kinophile]

According to him, #Putin arrested 20 generals. #Surkov is under house arrest, Dvorkovich is under criminal investigation. pic.twitter.com/30FGJqYkvf

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 14, 2022

 

Fires up the excel, itchy fingers at the ready...

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, keas66 said:

You seem like you have a deep seated admiration/fear of Putin and the Russians and are having a very hard time adjusting your worldview to the events unfolding before us .

Ease up, mate! Harshing my morning vibe here

He ain't no Ivan-lovin' troll. Personally I'm not convinced by many of Erwin's arguments, I find Steve et al's more compelling (which speaks to your note about not adjusting his worldview) but even so, he's just saying what even I posted about way yonder back - Russia isn't done. 

There's still a lot of fight left in them and UKR victory is absolutely not a predetermined thing. It's likely, maybe even very likely, but its sure as heck not certain.

Heck, even Zelensky is saying it - "not every Russian soldier runs away, not every tank is abandoned- (etc)".

I think he could come up with better reasons, or at least better counter-counters to his reasons, but he's no appeaser.  

Edited April 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

From my mum, ref these times:

Quote

Something very evil is loose and moving freely amongst us.

Damn true.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ease up, mate! Harshing my morning vibe here

He ain't no Ivan-lovin' troll. Personally I'm not convinced by many of Erwin's arguments, I find Steve et al's more compelling (which speaks to your note about not adjusting his worldview) but even so, he's just saying what even I posted about way yonder back - Russia isn't done. 

There's still a lot of fight left in them and UKR victory is absolutely not a predetermined thing. It's likely, maybe even very likely, but its sure as heck not certain.

Heck, even Zelensky is saying it - "not every Russian soldier runs away, not every tank is abandoned- (etc)".

I think he could come up with better reasons, or at least better counter-counters to his reasons, but he's no appeaser.  

Erwin, et al, I wasn't saying "Putin is going down!".  I was saying that it looks like theirs purging going on at the highest levels and this must be by Putin's command.  And these purges aren't just firing/retirement of the incompetent.  It's large scale jailing of powerful people.  That does NOT say "Putin is fine", it says "Putin is SCARED".

[photon]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Azar Gat - “A History of Military Thought” and “War in Human Civilization”

The famous “Makers of Modern Strategy” edited by Peter Paret.  These are the classics.  “Unrestricted Warfare” “Russian Hybrid Warfare” by Fridman and “The Strategy of Subversion” by Bkackstone (an old Cold War book).  These are really good works on null and negative decision spaces.

Thanks - I'll pick those up! Got to hit the library next week to pick up Beaufre's Introduction to Strategy, so will snag those as well. I'm on a second re-read of the Expanse right now; quite good. I also think Neal Stephenson's Anathem (oddly) does a nice job of analyzing strategic and operational art. In particular, it conceives of states of the world as points in a large vector space, and operations as moving through a world-line that's connected to the outcome you desire. That sounds a bit like the decision theory you're exploring.

Reading this thread, what's jumped out to me is the analogy to the Pacific Theatre in WWII with the Russians playing the part of the Japanese.

Each chose to launch an attack driven by ideological and operational concerns rather than strategic concerns. In the same way that the Japanese plan hinged on the Americans tapping out, the Russian plan appears to have hinged on a collapse of Ukranian resistance. Like the Japanese, they had a closing window when it appeared that strategic success was within reach, driven for the Japanese by the oil embargo and for the Russians by Ukraine's gradual tilt westward.

Operationally, the Japanese launched bold offensives that they could not support. They never had control of their lines of communication, especially after the USN figured out how to make torpedoes that actually exploded. The degradation of our submarines on the Japanese merchant navy are similar to the NLAW equipped light infantry wreaking havoc in the Russian LOCs. Like the Japanese, the Russians are penny-packeting troops into operations that have no momentum. Compare the repeated company sized attacks near Kiev with the flow of 500ish troops at a time into Guadalcanal on destroyers. Like the Americans, who carefully husbanded their (temporarily irreplaceable) naval assets until either strategic necessity (Coral Sea) or a huge tactical advantage (Midway) made their collective risk more palatable. Like the Americans, the Ukrainians have denied the Russians the decisive battle the appear to want, rather focusing on small attritional engagement and friction.

Time will tell whether Russian operational plans adapt in a way that Japanese operational plans did not.

Tactically, non-obvious factors in both Russian and Japanese formations turned out very important -- Japanese ships were light on AAA, had inferior (if any) CICs, and had poor damage control facilities and procedures, all of which turned out to be really important. Russian armored vehicles appear to have insufficient flotation and poor mobility maintenance, which appears to be really important.

Beyond that, American information supremacy eventually tilted carrier combat decisively in favor of the Americans, who could deliver CAP formations to just the right place to disrupt Japanese attacks. Similarly, Ukranian information dominance (?) is allowing them to attrit Russian formations and LOCs in ways that appear to seriously disrupt Russian attacks.

It's really bewildering to try and make sense of. But thinking in terms of the Pacific has helped me some.