How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

We have specific amounts, not sure how to embed tweets...

11 MH-17s, 18 155mm Howitzers, 400k artillery rounds, 10 AN/TPQ-36 counter artillery radars, 200 M113 APCs, 2 AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars, 100 armored high mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles, 300 switchblades, unmanned coastal defense vessels??

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1514316351703330829?t=G6wjHjVieG5wG-0kQ0byiA&s=19

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is probably just 152mm Dana, some were sold to Ukraine before the war started. We'd have to wait for Zuzanas a bit longer I think.
Edit: oops, it already says so in the tweet itself. The first time I saw this video it suggested it was Zuzana.

Article in a Czech publication detailing the vehicle and various things surrounding the acquisition:

https://www-armadninoviny-cz.translate.goog/ukrajina-nakoupi-26-ceskych-samohybnych-houfnic-dana.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It could be that some were already in Ukraine by the time the war started.  Maybe training and parts were already in process of happening.

It's going to be very interesting to see how quickly Ukraine can integrate totally novel systems (like what the US just authorized) into their forces short term.  Also training and parts... those are big issues.

But I suppose the old saying of "where there is a will there is a way" applies here.  I expect there might soon be a significant amount of civilian clothed Americans in Ukraine providing some assistance with all of this.

Steve

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is probably just 152mm Dana, some were sold to Ukraine before the war started.

Contract was broken. We hadn't Dana before the war

[Seedorf81]

On the topic of ATGM production:

I wonder if the average Ukranian AT-soldier knows how costly and difficult it is to produce just one Javelin or Nlaw.

It would be understandable that if they received some Javelins for instance, and see an abandoned Russian tank, Bmp, BTR or even simple fueltruck, that they would like to test out the capability of such a modern toy. And shoot at it. (Boys will always be boys..)

Could it be that a lot of rounds have been spent on "not so worthy"-targets? Hopefully someone tells 'm there's not an unlimited amount available..

[Battlefront.com]

And coincidentally I just found this article.  Looks like the US is entertaining doing some "remote learning" with Ukrainians to operate the newly shipped Switchblades:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3266568-us-mulls-using-forces-stationed-in-eastern-europe-to-train-ukrainian-troops/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

On the topic of ATGM production:

I wonder if the average Ukranian AT-soldier knows how costly and difficult it is to produce just one Javelin or Nlaw.

It would be understandable that if they received some Javelins for instance, and see an abandoned Russian tank, Bmp, BTR or even simple fueltruck, that they would like to test out the capability of such a modern toy. And shoot at it. (Boys will always be boys..)

Could it be that a lot of rounds have been spent on "not so worthy"-targets? Hopefully someone tells 'm there's not an unlimited amount available..

I'm sure this is a problem.  However, eons ago (last week?) there was a video posted of a Stugna-P operating holding out for a better target because the missiles were so expensive.  They spotted something juicier (Buk IIRC) and fired at it.  Then some numbnuts started to break down the tripod after launch but before the missile reached the target.  I don't speak Ukrainian, but I could understand the gunner was just a little bit upset by this.  So they fired a second one and that did the trick.

Steve

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in a Czech publication detailing the vehicle and various things surrounding the acquisition:

https://www-armadninoviny-cz.translate.goog/ukrajina-nakoupi-26-ceskych-samohybnych-houfnic-dana.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

It could be that some were already in Ukraine by the time the war started.  Maybe training and parts were already in process of happening.

It's going to be very interesting to see how quickly Ukraine can integrate totally novel systems (like what the US just authorized) into their forces short term.  Also training and parts... those are big issues.

But I suppose the old saying of "where there is a will there is a way" applies here.  I expect there might soon be a significant amount of civilian clothed Americans in Ukraine providing some assistance with all of this.

Steve

Regarding the US provided weapons - I wonder what systems would be provided first. I'm kinda rooting for M270, if the logistics are managed correctly it could really have an impact in an artillery focused conflict. Maybe providing some needed long range precision strike capability too.
Anyway, a general question: how big are US military equipment stockpiles in Europe at the moment ? Is something along the lines of Cold War POMCUS sites still a thing ? Or will whole the equipment and ammo for this donated artillery systems have to be moved from CONUS? 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm sure this is a problem.  However, eons ago (last week?) there was a video posted of a Stugna-P operating holding out for a better target because the missiles were so expensive.  They spotted something juicier (Buk IIRC) and fired at it.  Then some numbnuts started to break down the tripod after launch but before the missile reached the target.  I don't speak Ukrainian, but I could understand the gunner was just a little bit upset by this.  So they fired a second one and that did the trick.

Steve

Is this the one ? 

 

[Kinophile]

BREAKING

Russian cruiser struck by Neptune and on fire in Black Sea.

Rumour/radio intercept.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Kinophile
Silly me got harpoon missed with Neptune

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

@Haiduk

Apparently, more and more pictures are turning up since a few days with UA soldiers wearing green armbands? Any idea what that means?

The deficit of yellow tape ) 

[DesertFox]

Moscow Metro, poster for "short term contract"

...Go in at day 1, come back at day 3 in a bodybag...

 

 

[OldSarge]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

BREAKING

Russian cruiser struck by Harpoon and on fire in Black Sea.

https://ukranews.com/en/news/849331-russian-warship-moskva-is-on-fire-in-black-sea-media

It is being reported as the Moskva, the Black Sea fleet's flagship! Happy days!

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by OldSarge

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@The_Capt

I already meant some things  about UKR internet infrastructure. Don't want to repeat, just say in whole again - decentralization, flexibility, survivability, revivalability. Fortunately, for 30 years Ukrianian state in bad sense of this word, couldn't regulate in tough way development of internet infrastructure and later development of IT-sector. Yes, some force structures extored the money from IT business, corrupted officials demanded bribes for "non-obstruction of business", but they didn't interfere to their work with instructions how to establish communications. So, as result we got very flexible network, which very hard to supress by single strike. 

I can add in the night before 24th Feb our cyber-forces with support of Western specialists repelled most powerfull cyber attack on our critical infrastructure, government resourses, network nodes. So, Russians conducted operation to "shut up" UANET, but failed.

Internet is enough accessible and relatively cheap in Ukraine. For example i use home wire internet with unlimited traffic for 4$ per month and 4G/12 Gb in cellphone for 5$ per month

Here, for example, a map of 4G cover

Damn, so that is how was done, even if it was somewhat "organic".  So if one were to attack a nation with this sort of infrastructure you need a pretty long and comprehensive campaign to hit towers, nodes and servers either via cyber or kinetic.  The very short preparations by the Russians were no where near enough to suppress this.   

The UA has its own architecture (UANET as you mention) but using volunteer/irregular defenders along a 1300km frontage with this public architecture in place means they could communicate and synchronize locally, now armed with UAVs and NLAWs.  UA with its closed info architecture could focus on decisive points while getting feeds from the civilian structure.  Add to this western/US ISR feeds and the RA using the same civilian architecture in the clear means finding the Russians and where they were moving to was much easier.  Interestingly most of the Russian gains are in areas of spottier coverage in the S and SE. 

The Russians were screwed from the start-line and dead on arrival.  Seeing this, I am thinking we were too conservative on the Russian failure in the early days of this thing to be honest.  They basically left the primary means through which Ukrainian defenders broke the Russian operational system wide open.

I would love to see a map of comparative data flow.  I bet the Russians are pretty dark, while Ukrainian defence looks like an Xmas tree.

[The Steppenwulf]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

BREAKING

Russian cruiser struck by Harpoon and on fire in Black Sea.

No surely - not?! 

Edited April 13, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[DesertFox]

Just now, OldSarge said:

https://ukranews.com/en/news/849331-russian-warship-moskva-is-on-fire-in-black-sea-media

It is being reported as the Moskva, the Black Sea fleet's flagship!

Excellent!

[TheVulture]

I'd be wary of believing this entirety at face value without further corroboration though. 

 

https://ukranews.com/en/news/849331-russian-warship-moskva-is-on-fire-in-black-sea-media

Ukrainian defenders attacked the flagship of the Russian fleet, missile cruiser Moskva. This is reported by volunteer Serzh Marko.

“The cruiser Moskva has just been hit by 2 Neptune missiles. It is standing, burning. And there is a storm at sea. Tactical flooding is required, apparently,” he wrote.

Earlier, the Ukrainian military damaged the Russian frigate Admiral Essen.

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

BREAKING

Russian cruiser struck by Harpoon and on fire in Black Sea.

The report I've found says it was 2 (Ukraine made) Neptune missiles, rather than harpoons (which I doubt are in theatre yet)

[Seedorf81]

On the new Russian commander..

Suppose, just suppose for argument's sake, that this Alex Dvornikov has Georgi Zhukov-capabilities.

Could he make a significant difference in the way the Russian army fights?

(By the way, I suppose it is a well known fact that Zhukov also was a complete ruthless man at times.)  

 

[Huba]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

On the new Russian commander..

Suppose, just suppose for argument's sake, that this Alex Dvornikov has Georgi Zhukov-capabilities.

Could he make a significant difference in the way the Russian army fights?

(By the way, I suppose it is a well known fact that Zhukov also was a complete ruthless man at times.)  

 

As @dan/california pointed out, actually having a commander is a great step up already. As for the rest of the question, I'd like to read some analysis too.

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Haha, no Untergang is not bad actually. It's where all the Hitlers memes originated! Bruno Ganz is amazing.

Der Untergang is a fantastic movie. But your link had it with Hitler Youth in front of untergang. And I confused it with an other movie! sorry!

Edited April 13, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Seedorf81]

5 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The report I've found says it was 2 (Ukraine made) Neptune missiles, rather than harpoons (which I doubt are in theatre yet)

This is unbelievable.. Wow, man, these Russians ain't doin' their job to good.. If it's true.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Seedorf81

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Gary R Lukas said:

I just saw BMP-1's on the news, at first I thought it was just file footage, but then I saw the letter Z painted on their sides. If I had to take a guess I believe these units are from Russia's satellite countries, if not then the Russian's are taking vehicles out of mothballs!!!

This is not vehicles of mothballs, some Russian brigades and regiments, especially from Seberia and Far East use BMP-1 to this time as it turned out. For example, 5th tank brigade, deployed NW from Kyiv had BMP-1 in own motor-rifle battalion

[TheVulture]

Here's a few paragraphs on the subject of Dvornikov from a context-setting essay from Geopolitical Futures:

Alexander Dvornikov isn’t exactly a household name, but it could be soon. He’s the Russian general President Vladimir Putin has put in charge of the war in Ukraine after what can generously be described as a disappointing start for Moscow. Dvornikov is credited with saving the Russian campaign in Syria, and the Kremlin hopes he can replicate his successes in Europe.

In Syria, Dvornikov understood that Russia was fighting a diffused infantry force with deep ties to the populations of the areas they were fighting in, so he launched a war on those populations focusing his resources not on the fighters themselves but on their friends and families. He meant to terrify them and thus instill a deep desire to end the war. Put less clinically, Dvornikov carried out mass murder, a calculated measure intended to save Russian lives and to intimidate other populations into staying out of the fight. Putin appointed him because of his reputation and his ability to command and massacre.

NATO members have made clear they would not intervene directly, but as the atrocities mount, so would the pressure to act. The publics of most NATO countries oppose intervention, but it only takes a few Buchas to change their attitudes. And the U.S. itself is never far away.

Appointing Dvornikov to save the day is a Hail Mary. But this misses the point. Even if Dvornikov’s brutality can somehow pacify Ukraine, it will convince the rest of the world to keep sanctions in place, thereby institutionalizing their crippling economic effects. Economic warfare is being waged by a massive global coalition. Russia was hardly economically robust before the war, but there are some claims that Russia’s gross domestic product is contracting by 50 percent. That may be overstated, but there is no question that things are bad. For Russia to “win” in Ukraine would not solve this problem. If anything, it could compound it.

[BlackMoria]

I don't think so.  If I recall my limited military history of Zhukov, all problems were  nails to him and his hammer was to throw endless russian bodies at the problem until it was solved.  He was no Rommel or Guderian.  If this new Russian commander is cut from the same cloth, I don't expect any brilliant maneuvers from him.  He is old school Soviet military academy for one, and for two, the mud season will constrain any maneuvers.  I expect he will throw bodies at the problem in the hope that he can deliver the much need win that Putin wants for the 9 May parade.

[db_zero]

30 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

On the topic of ATGM production:

I wonder if the average Ukranian AT-soldier knows how costly and difficult it is to produce just one Javelin or Nlaw.

It would be understandable that if they received some Javelins for instance, and see an abandoned Russian tank, Bmp, BTR or even simple fueltruck, that they would like to test out the capability of such a modern toy. And shoot at it. (Boys will always be boys..)

Could it be that a lot of rounds have been spent on "not so worthy"-targets? Hopefully someone tells 'm there's not an unlimited amount available..

Most of the new soldiers are basically kids with a few days of training so fire discipline is probably lax.

Social media is probably another factor- a tic tok video is worth a lifetime of memories so getting a good video with an AT weapon is gold to many of these internet savvy soldiers.