Vet 0369 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 15 hours ago, chris talpas said: This beacon of hope, Kyiv, which fiercely resisted and drove back the dark forces of Sauron, is being shown to the world as still being free. Should we all be referring to Kyiv as Minas Tirith? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Erwin said: On February 26, Battlefront posted: "I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest." And it was Yet the talking heads on various media outlets were making it sound like Russia was just getting started, which wasn't the case at all. Unfortunately, the point at which a war is decided is not necessarily when the war is ended. Germany had absolutely no chance of winning the war after about 1942, and certainly not after June of 1944, but it fought on anyway. 1 hour ago, Erwin said: It's wonderful to have these discussion with you and everyone else. But, the evidence seems to point towards a long-lasting stalemate. Fortunately, this is not an abstract academic discussion, so we should know more RL results by May. Depends on what you mean by "long-lasting". If you mean a couple of months, then that is certainly possible. If you mean the rest of 2022 or beyond? No way. And the evidence, as I continually trot out when this topic comes up, is overwhelmingly in support of a shorter war vs. a longer one. 1 hour ago, Erwin said: A couple of other points. It seems that in addition to "fighting to the last Ukrainian", the west's strategy is also to have Russia use up its stock of ATGM's and smart weapons which are the primary threat to tanks. I don't think that's even remotely a part of the thinking. The thinking is to kill Russia's tanks and equipment, along with lots and lots of soldiers. That is what will end this war. Russia draining its capacity to fight another war any time soon is a very nice side effect. 1 hour ago, Erwin said: It is highly significant that we are all worrying about a shortage of the electronics/chips that make these advanced weapons work. It's highly probable that the west has a much larger stock than Russia (and perhaps including China as well). If we are running out of these chips then Russia is running out faster and will not be able to replace their smart weapons, while the west still retains large stocks. This technology "attrition" works for us and may be the greatest advantage we have. The only place Russia can get chips resupplied from is China. That puts China in an "interesting" position. It doesn't work like that. There is no one type of chip, there is no one source for them. ROK, for example, produces a huge amount. So does Taiwan. So does the US and European countries for that matter. China, of course, also produces a lot, though not necessarily of the sensitive types for weaponry. The problem for Russia is it's been cut off from huge portions of the supply chain. If they have a system that requires even 1 chip from 1 place that is enforcing the embargo, then that system DOES NOT GET MADE or it gets made with degraded capabilities. But it's vastly worse for Russian manufacturing than just the end products. OK, let's say that Russia wants to quadruple it's production of simple things like ammunition. Count out robotics and fancy manufacturing equipment. So what are they going to put into their new ammunition factories? Old school lathes and drill presses? And even if that is technically possible for something (ammo yes, ATGM no), they will have to get skilled machinists who can work without CNC capabilities. That also takes time to sort out. Russia's entire economy is under great strain, not just the end products rolling out of arms manufacturers. All of these things are susceptible to larger forces at play. For example, WW2 historians point out that if Germany had managed to blow a couple of power plants in the Urals the manufacturing of tanks and other things would come to a halt because it would take about 1 year to get a replacement into operation. No power, no production. Russia today is just as vulnerable, if not more so, to something like this happening. They don't have a lot of "free board" to work around even normal, routine breakdowns. 1 hour ago, Erwin said: However, while those tech stocks are hard to replace, it bodes well for the (near) future of the Baltics and Poland etc. as Russia will be deterred from aggressive behaviour if it has limited ATGM's and smart weapons. While we cannot be sanguine for the future of Ukraine, it could well result in some reassurance/security for other eastern European nations. At least until the world economies get back to normal. Russia has committed something like 80% of its entire military force into Ukraine and it's lost about 1/3rd of it in the short term. Nobody other than Russia civilians have anything to worry about for a couple of years. Because beating people up and making them disappear doesn't take much. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml Interview with one of Putin's mouthpieces, still spouting from deep in delusion land. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 20 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml Interview with one of Putin's mouthpieces, still spouting from deep in delusion land. One has to admit he's making the best of it. This is the world the average Russian is living in. Impressive propaganda machine. Edited April 10, 2022 by Aragorn2002 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c3k Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said: If you are referring to the Feb/March conscription draft, they are by Russian law strictly excluded from any combat duty for first 3 months. Furthermore, all conscripted soldiers in any state of training should not be used in front line echelons and should only make up reserve units in a formation (though Martial Law of course would throw out the rule book). This is a matter of controversy in the present conflict because Putin reassured the Russian nation that limitations placed on use of conscripts would be applied in the 'Special Operation', but there is now evidence that conscripts were indeed exposed to front line action in the northern axis of the invasion (twitter clips showing captured RA conscripts). Umm...are you saying Putin ignored the law? (I'm so not going to repost my earlier comments about how Putin is not constrained by the law or say something like "I told you so". ) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, c3k said: Umm...are you saying Putin ignored the law? (I'm so not going to repost my earlier comments about how Putin is not constrained by the law or say something like "I told you so". ) Princeps legibus solutus est seems to be an idea that is alive and well in Putin's Russia. Edited April 10, 2022 by Harmon Rabb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said: Should we all be referring to Kyiv as Minas Tirith? Rohan only sending horses and swords. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 NATOs planes need to be in the air. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maquisard manqué Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Rohan only sending horses and swords. + the fellowship of the ring/volunteers? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said: + the fellowship of the ring/volunteers? Yeah, I like that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 8 hours ago, Desertor said: Well, maybe they aren’t coming from Poland then, but there is nowhere to land in this direction other than North America. Maybe the U.K.? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: No statement about where this particular river crossing might have been, but it looks like there was a Kadyrov or OMAN type unit (white truck, black body armor). BTW, although I don't speak Ukrainian I definitely can hear the sarcastic pity loud and clear V - this is 100 % NW from Kyiv. Usual engineer unit, some motor-rifle vehicles and probably Rosgvardia Ural. Our guy has Border Guard Service type of camo. Probably this is enemy convoy which was targeted with artillery during withdrawal. Mayby this is Teterev river near Ivankiv, or some north from it Edited April 10, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, c3k said: Umm...are you saying Putin ignored the law? (I'm so not going to repost my earlier comments about how Putin is not constrained by the law or say something like "I told you so". ) You are confusing issues. Conscripts who were sent into combat in Ukraine were already serving past the minimum training period, possibly approaching the end of their conscription period. There is no law against their use, but Putin “promised” on TV that conscripts would not participate in the “Special Operation.” It’s not a violation of law, but a political liability. The people who are being conscripted now and sent directly into combat are not Russian Citizens, but Ukrainians in previously occupied areas. Reports surfacing today that they are even now conscripting men in recently occupied areas, including people fleeing Mariupol and people in Kherson (that should end well!). No evidence at all that any young Russian citizens from the current draft have been sent directly to Ukraine, and this would likely trigger a large number of court cases if it was happening. Edited April 10, 2022 by akd 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml Interview with one of Putin's mouthpieces, still spouting from deep in delusion land. It is so hard for me to wrap my mind around Russia. They want to strut around and tell everyone how tough they are and how their military is so formidable, then say they are scared of Ukraine invading them. They have to attack Ukraine for their own security? But, I thought you had a strong military so you should be able to defend yourself if you were attacked. The circles of their logic makes my head hurt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Steppenwulf Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, c3k said: Umm...are you saying Putin ignored the law? (I'm so not going to repost my earlier comments about how Putin is not constrained by the law or say something like "I told you so" And I'll repeat, if Putin chooses to ignore conscription rules or the law , it comes with consequences. Even he knows this! Edited April 10, 2022 by The Steppenwulf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maquisard manqué Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/alexander-dvornikov-russian-general-who-helped-turn-tide-of-syrian-war https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/new-russian-war-chief-will-bring-more-brutality-in-ukraine-us-warns Lovely sounding guy. Edited April 10, 2022 by Maquisard manqué Added second link - analysis of what it means for Ukraine 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) Russian TV. Degree of madness is going off scale. English subs "Zelenskyi is devil, anathema" Edited April 10, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Russian TV. Degree of madness is going off scale. English subs "Zelenskyi is devil, anathema" Nothing for it but to keep shipping Cargo 200 back to Russia by the trainload, until they get the point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Russian TV. Degree of madness is going off scale. English subs "Zelenskyi is devil, anathema" This is the inevitable outcome of Russia's "escalate to deescalate" mentality. At some point you run out of rational ways to escalate. We've seen this in US politics in recent years. If one side doesn't get it's way with logical arguments, it replaces it with nonsense fears/threats. That's normal politics, yes, but what has changed is how far off the tracks the logic train goes. Q-Anon, for example, sounds even more insane than that guy on Russian TV. I am sure there are many Russians who believe what this guy is saying is factually correct, just like many Americans believe the things Q stated as fact. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 As Steve said early on UKR only needs to "keep kill Russians". And Putin looks like he's gonna keep sending worse and worse troops in. Funny all this LOTR stuff. I am on my 3rd re-read right now this time via audiobook, I do it every 10 years. Currently in 3rd book w attack on Minas Tirith coming up. I think the orcs et al have a better army than RU. RU can't even seem to get Osgiliath (Mariupol). They both lost badly at Helm's Deep (Kyiv). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 (edited) Russia confirms prisoner exchange with Ukraine (msn.com) Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova confirmed on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had carried out a prisoner exchange on Saturday. Moskalkova said that among those who returned to Russia were four employees of state atomic energy corporation Rosatom, soldiers and some other civilians. "Early this morning they landed on Russian soil," Moskalkova said in an online post. On Saturday an exchange of truck drivers between Russia and Ukraine was also conducted, Moskalkova said, with 32 Russian truck drivers, 20 Ukrainians and a number of Belarus nationals exchanged. Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk had said on Saturday that 12 of its soldiers were being returned after a prisoner exchange with Russia, the third such swap since the start of the conflict. Edited April 10, 2022 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicdain Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 51 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml Interview with one of Putin's mouthpieces, still spouting from deep in delusion land. the amount of propaganda BS that comes out of his mouth is impressive. the really worrying thing is that I don't think there are many possibilities for dialogue with this Russia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted April 10, 2022 Share Posted April 10, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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