How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

In both Napoleonic war and WW2, apart from aforementioned allies and help, russian army predominantly consisted of Ukrainians and Belarusians, who ended up suffering the greatest casualties in both wars.

It's why by the time either of them got to Moscow - their armies were bled so heavily by what is basically the locals defending their homes - they couldn't realistically proceed any further.

If you check history - in the past centuries russians never really fought a war on their own territory. 

Aggressive wars they started using their own local population ended up being stuff like Winter War or Tsushima.

Yes I understand what you are talking about. The problems here is while you and the world see this as a foreign invader incident , Putin and most russian population consider as an internal affair and self preservation "special operation" for the survival of Russia, the secure access to Black sea, the safety of russian dominated territories in Crimea and Donbas. It's not another winter war, it's something much more essential to them. 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

https://base-garant-ru.translate.goog/10107062/b7899bcc6be7a47ef7731cae8027fc3b/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Looting is now decriminalized in Russia.

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by kraze

[DesertFox]

Just now, kraze said:

https://base-garant-ru.translate.goog/10107062/b7899bcc6be7a47ef7731cae8027fc3b/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

WOW! Looting has been officially decriminalized for the orcs? 

[DesertFox]

They need to burn in hell!

 

 

[GAZ NZ]

Thats horrific 

Why are they doing that? 

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

Thats horrific 

Why are they doing that? 

They are "solving the Ukrainian question"

Actual graphic images: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/8/7338073/

[Der Zeitgeist]

They're also already blaming the Ukrainians, because it was a Tochka-U and not an Iskander missile:

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/40746

[LongLeftFlank]

Once more, the long arm of the UA infantry. Not good times for tankers:

Hmm, running short of flares so having to fly  ultra low level? Bring in the ZPU-23s.

The 'Tractor Works' still holds out!

And sadly, I predicted Ivan would start using these tactics a few hundred pages ago:

 

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

So on the political side of plan A. Immediately upon taking Mariupol and initiating the withdrawals he petitions the UN for peacekeeping forces and a DMZ to maintain a ceasefire? With the support of China and India and the west seeing it as an end to a bad situation and possible WW3 (maybe strong hints of WMD's if UN doesn't intervene) would it be possible? I have no doubt that Ukraine is willing and able to fight to the end but can it do so as an island on it's own? When Putin is so "gracious" to offer to end the conflict and Ukraine is now the meanie aggressor against poor innocent Russia?

Please understand that I in no way shape or form support Putin or Russia. The above is just how they seem to try to spin things to be the victim when they are actually the perp. Huh, I guess I just described Russia as the tank top wearing, wife beating drunk of our neighborhood of nations. Seems about right.

Anyway, and the western nations and China are just looking at the economics. Is it more lucrative to keep the conflict going or for it to end? It's all about the money to them and the answer is for it to end so they can get their business back to normal. So they pressure Ukraine and force in the DMZ and peacekeepers. Ukraine can't continue as an island so they are forced to eat the ***t sandwich by the benevolent west.

The inconvenient problem with this plan is that under current practice (eg not the Korean anomaly) a deployment of peacekeepers requires UNSC sign off and the agreement of both warring parties.  If Ukraine says no then it won't happen and it wouldn't surprise me if some of the UNSC members decide to be awkward out of sheer badness.  Norway, possibly the French and more likely the UK and US could simply veto the draft resolution to deploy said peacekeeping force.  The UK and US have plenty of motives to stick it to Russia in this manner thus keeping it in a conflict that drains its blood and treasure and sends the wider message that armed tomfoolery by rogue regimes is frowned upon.

[Taranis]

The remains of a rocket lie after a rocket attack on the train station in the city of Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbass region, on April 8, 2022. HERVE BAR / AFP
On the forecourt in front of the station, the remains of a missile were still visible, on which one could read in Russian "For our children".

Seriously ?!

[chuckdyke]

Russia will become a third-rate European power it is the only way out. Belo Russia will also need regime change and hold free elections. Hungary proves itself a modern-day Quisling. If you win make sure you take all. Here is a nice place in the South Atlantic called St Helena good place for Putin's retirement. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It's all pure speculation of course, but let's just say I wouldn't be surprised when in 20 years some biography comes out mentioning that US military assistance was quite a bit more extensive than it seemed at the time.

There's just a few things that make me go "hmmmm", like the almost perfect situational awareness that Ukraine seems to have, or a number of incidents where Russian stuff mysteriously blows up and everyone quickly agrees that it was probably a Ukrainian Tochka missile that got a lucky hit.

With 36 years' employment in the field I can reassure you that any such biography in 20 years time will be a work of fiction from someone bigging themselves up.  The US, having recently and with popular assent somewhat untidily extricated itself from one conflict last year is in no rush to become involved in another one directly. 

Enablers such as providing situational awareness, intelligence sharing plus lethal and non-lethal aid are of course being provided.  The old adage of 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it" will certainly be uppermost in the calculus of the US and its NATO allies which again makes direct intervention or other capers like officially sanctioned 'American Legions' highly unlikely.  History proves that 'deniable ops' simply aren't and that is particularly so in the current information environment.

'Almost perfect situational awareness' resulting in stuff mysteriously blowing up is also in the realm of 'doesn't happen.'  People are quick to tell me that "the int was rubbish" - "we weren't warned" etc, which is frequently an excuse to hide their own failings (not reading the intelligence or ignoring it (Mr Putin refers) being fairly common) or their misperception about the art of the achievable by the intelligence cell, unit or agency.

The factors for Ukrainian success are well-documented, roadbound columns, little or no attempt to enforce tactical spacings, little or no attempt at camouflage and concealment and the use of insecure communications on the part of the Russians.  On the part of the Ukrainians, once the limited axes of advance have been identified a combination of mark one eyeball, UAVs and tactical SIGINT provide sufficient means to develop a tactical picture of sufficient granularity to strike.   That they have been able to do so is because they have developed a command and control architecture which has allowed this information to be shared and acted upon quickly.  Some of it is very unsophisticated as explained on some of the videos we have seen:  UAV team goes out, launches from a wood near one of the identified road, flies the UAV until a target is seen and passes the target grid over VHF direct to a mortar unit.  BDA sent over same means, rinse and repeat as necessary.  Combat or tactical intelligence isn't particularly hard if you have a tactically incompetent and undisciplined opponent moving along easily identified axes of advance.

[DesertFox]

29 minutes ago, Taranis said:

The remains of a rocket lie after a rocket attack on the train station in the city of Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbass region, on April 8, 2022. HERVE BAR / AFP
On the forecourt in front of the station, the remains of a missile were still visible, on which one could read in Russian "For our children".

Seriously ?!

Yeah that is completely sickening.

 

 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting footage of a wrecked pontoon bridge and vehicles:

 

There are more videos from this place. Here in better quality on Youtube. Pay attantion how flooded Irpin' river after the dam to Kyiv reservoir opening. Before this here was narrowest part of the river, though with marshy ground aside.

And the Moshchun village itself, where the battle lasted several days and Russian plans to cross Irpin' and expanded bridgehead for advance to Kyiv were disrupted

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

well, well

[BeondTheGrave]

Not sure if this was already posted but,

 

[kraze]

43 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

well, well

It's "just" a single complex (which is a lot more generous than it sounds due to S300 being a collection of machines that can engage a lot of targets at once) - but to me it looks like a european test to see "what will putin do".

So when EU sees that all those threats were bluff (e.g. Poland still not bombed) - there will be more.

Edited April 8, 2022 by kraze

[domfluff]

I'd honestly expect the US, UK and any other NATO powers to do everything they can, shy of engaging with actual force, so intel seems like one of the more basic ways to assist.

(Obviously there's a larger debate around all aspects of that, but I'd still expect intel-sharing as a minimum.)

[The_MonkeyKing]

23 minutes ago, kraze said:

It's "just" a single complex (which is a lot more generous than it sounds due to S300 being a collection of machines that can engage a lot of targets at once) - but to me it looks like a european test to see "what will putin do".

So when EU sees that all those threats were bluff (e.g. Poland still not bombed) - there will be more.

Well, that is all the S300 equipment Slovakia has. One battery

[The_MonkeyKing]

Unconfirmed and unknown. But would be logical, last year Ukraine order 20 or so DANA-M2

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The West might have seen it as cutting its losses in week 1. But at this point, I think most -- ex Germany -- are quite happy to see Russia get its nasty arse handed to it piece by piece and are in no particular hurry to see that stop, barring a reversal.

This. The crucial geopolitical fact that the Russian invasion of Ukraine accomplished was to convince Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Slovakia, etc that Russia is a problem that cannot be handled through accommodation. More to the point, in places like Germany, it's popular to advocate for more direct confrontation with Putin. Leaders will get pilloried (as Scholtz is) for not taking a firm stance and parties will lose voters if they mishandle the conflict in the long term. The EU/NATO may not always act as quickly or as adeptly as many wish but this is not a job that most nations' leadership think can be left half done. 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Unconfirmed and unknown. But would be logical, last year Ukraine order 20 or so DANA-M2

Alas, because different backstairs and conflict of different interests inside our MoD and defense industry this order was foiled. But I think, Dana M2 would be better choise now, because of we have too few 155 mm ammunition, which was purchased only for tests of our 155 mm Bohdana SP-howitzer

[lerxster]

Informative post. Appreciate the community. I'm an enormous lurker... 

 

Found this regarding the Russian have no Tochka - U missiles... 

 

Belarusian Hajun project (@MotolkoHelp) Tweeted:
7:50
A column of Russian equipment with “V” marks was moving from Rechitsa towards Gomel along the M10 highway.
There were at least 8 Tochka-U, several BTR-82a, about 9 KamAZ trucks, some of which are carrying Tochka-U missiles, communication vehicle and a crane. https://t.co/UFF0cmrgv5 https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1509099435262976000?s=20&t=cXZm_JJAOIr14QSs79t45A