How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Most casualties suffered during WW2, and especially on defence that grinded through germans on the russian army side weren't russian.

The war was happening mostly on Ukrainian and Belarusian territory.

Winter war was predominantly russians.

That should give you some clues and explain why russians have troubles here.

Add the First Chechen War to that list.  And the only reason Russia won the Second Chechen War was they bribed Kadyrov's father into switching sides.  In other words, Putin employed (very well done) treachery instead of brute military force.

Steve

[akd]

Goddammit Scott, do you not understand that your primary role as a reporter is the gathering of memes to post on the internet!?

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Add the First Chechen War to that list.  And the only reason Russia won the Second Chechen War was they bribed Kadyrov's father into switching sides.  In other words, Putin employed (very well done) treachery instead of brute military force.

Steve

That was the actual plan in Ukraine as well. It just failed spectacularly. Putin couldn't stand to be embarrassed and just go home. He decided to continue with the plan like the treachery part had worked, and well, here we are. Hopefully the Russian plan F is as bad as A thru E were.

[Cpl Steiner]

If Russia really has lost now, as Steve has suggested, isn't there a danger Putin switches to chemical and  nuclear weapons?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

There's a video doing the rounds that seems to show Ukrainians killing RU soldiers.

Not going post it here as no-one needs to see that gruesome ****. But those of you that have seen it: did you see the shoulder patch Ukrainian flag on one the soldiers involved? Upside down. What a curious mistake to make if you are a patriotic Ukrainian.

It's not even that my conscience needs it to be a false flag. If they are murdering Russian soldiers, I am okay with it at this point. I wish they didn't and I don't think it is smart. But my heart isn't exactly weeping for those "poor Russian conscripts". Unlike the Geneva convention, my conscience does value reciprocity. Act like beasts, get put down like beasts.

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There's a video doing the rounds that seems to show Ukrainians killing RU soldiers.

Not going post it here as no-one needs to see that gruesome ****. But those of you that have seen it: did you see the shoulder patch Ukrainian flag on one the soldiers involved? Upside down. What a curious mistake to make if you are a patriotic Ukrainian.

It's not even that my conscience needs it to be a false flag. If they are murdering Russian soldiers, I am okay with it at this point. I wish they didn't and I don't think it is smart. But my heart isn't exactly weeping for those "poor Russian conscripts". Unlike the Geneva convention, my conscience does value reciprocity. Act like beasts, get put down like beasts.

I haven't seen the video. Only heard about it and that those soldiers were killed in or near Bucha.

I can believe it's true even without watching the video.

I'm perfectly OK with it.

[keas66]

This does not seem very smart ?

 

[BlackMoria]

On 4/2/2022 at 11:29 PM, Battlefront.com said:

7 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

If Russia really has lost now, as Steve has suggested, isn't there a danger Putin switches to chemical and  nuclear weapons?

 

I deem that unlikely.  The outrage on the atrocities being revealed is causing a upswell of support in Western countries to do something... anything over and above what is being done now.  That is a very upset electorate that politicians need to manage expectations.  If Putin plays the chemical or nuclear card, that ground swell of outrage may push NATO governments into a position they need to get militarily involved.  And if that happens, NATO may have to go 'all in'.   If you are going to dance with the devil, you need to come prepared to win.   Putin, if he is aware of what his happening outside his borders knows that.   It is over at the point if he goes down that route.  NATO will probably be forced to go 'all in' in Ukraine.  That is game over for Russia's little adventurism in Ukraine.

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

If Russia really has lost now, as Steve has suggested, isn't there a danger Putin switches to chemical and  nuclear weapons?

I hear that a lot outside of this forum. The problem for Putin is that wmd'ing or nuking Ukraine loses him every last bit of support he is currently receiving from China/India/etc and in return, he gets an irradiated/spoiled mess that is a net negative in terms of security, trade, etc. The point of all of this was to aggrandize power. Escalating does the opposite, permanently.

[db_zero]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia is done.  They lost this war, they can not continue on indefinitely.  There are no facts in support of that premise.

I'll also remind you that I am not one of the people that called this war incorrectly.  In predicted Russia would lose this war years before they started it.  On the first day of the war I saw all I needed to to know I had made the correct call, but waited to make that call "final" on the 5th day.  This was when talking heads kept saying that Russia was just getting started.  A week later I made the call that Putin's government wouldn't survive this war.   I have consistently refuted all the experts who used terms like "operational pause" and "strategic reset" and "stalemate" as not knowing what they are talking about.

I am not saying I am totally right about everything, but so far my track record is vastly better than all but a few experts out there.  Therefore, I am comfortable with maintaining my position that Ukraine is the one that decides how this ends, not Russia.

Supposedly based on Western intel.  And so far they have been calling things correctly.  It also makes sense from Putin's regime standpoint.  The VE day parade is a big deal for it.

Anybody saying this should get crossed off your list as a reliable source.  They are as clueless as the ex-Generals saying that Russia was going to win the war in a matter of days or months.

Russia is not geared for anything.  That's their whole problem.

Stoicism doesn't produce weaponry or 100,000 trained soldiers in time for them to matter.

Steve

You’ve basically been correct and consistent.

I’m more cautious and questioning. Too many times in life I’ve been right and on a roll and doubled down with all the indicators pointing to continued success, only to have it blow up in my face so I’ll always try to look for some flaws in reasoning and why things will not go the way I planned for or expected.

[Homo_Ferricus]

You know, emotional decisions are very rarely good ones. There's a problem with the fact that we are inundated with videos that, as humans, we can't help but respond to with visceral emotion. It didn't used to be like this. We used to read about facts, and have time to consider them, and then the odd photo or video that made its way through the editorial process. Nowadays it's all, "Forget ethics, forget the law, forget standards and decency. I just watched a video that made me emotional. Now I'm ok with war crimes." I've felt this myself, and seen it all over this thread. Truly the moment is all that matters, ala George Orwell. I've recently realized that all the "war porn" and videos from the front generally have a very negative effect on my pysche, and my capacity to live well. Now trying to cut down on the emotion, and sort through facts. From there is where the better decisions are made.

As always my sympathies are with the Ukrainian nation. 

[Bil Hardenberger]

41 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Because it (almost inevitably) appeared elsewhere:

Better split that squad... asking for trouble all bunched up like that.    

[akd]

8 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There's a video doing the rounds that seems to show Ukrainians killing RU soldiers.

Not going post it here as no-one needs to see that gruesome ****. But those of you that have seen it: did you see the shoulder patch Ukrainian flag on one the soldiers involved? Upside down. What a curious mistake to make if you are a patriotic Ukrainian.

It's not even that my conscience needs it to be a false flag. If they are murdering Russian soldiers, I am okay with it at this point. I wish they didn't and I don't think it is smart. But my heart isn't exactly weeping for those "poor Russian conscripts". Unlike the Geneva convention, my conscience does value reciprocity. Act like beasts, get put down like beasts.

Believed to be the Georgian volunteer battalion immediately after the ambush on the Russian column leaving Dmitrivka outside Kyiv on March 30th.  I think they have a discipline problem (also uploaded videos of them drinking booze on operations and gathering tons of looted booze) as well as a bit of a Kadyrovite-like TikTok soldiery disposition.  However, I am disappointed to see this get much more play with Western (non-UKR) journalists than the onslaught of witness accounts of civilian rape and murder by Russians.  I guess “on video” plus the appeal of “good guys being bad” as more click-worthy news in the West than “bad guys being bad, even if it is is really, really bad.”

[Suchy]

Two very interesting articles

About Polish MiGs

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/poland-considering-italian-korean-alternatives-to-backfill-mig-29s/?fbclid=IwAR0qlvnyWzhMC6stGe1JAvVwCh8slze13R2YD2yvAJvaG03BXFMtEkyhGto

and about Cyprus weapon

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/us_agrees_with_cyprus_on_bmp_3_t_80_and_sam_buk_for_ukraine_media-2475.html?fbclid=IwAR11PaOAkSCtHgwwR5K_tTEeWQzIZjMnmaJcl3OP-PX5puPwM4m1irwMayM

 

[BeondTheGrave]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

+1 mayor

Mayor Dmitriy Stakheev. Killed 29th of Marth. No info about the unit. Confirmed by Russian media.

 

A wrinkle here with the rapid eastward redeployment plan for Russia. How do you just replace higher unit commanders that quickly? When it happens in the ones and twos you always have some slack. A Col from another unit becomes a BG and things move on. Maybe someone comes off the staff into a line unit. But when you have a systemic attack against the command structure like the Ukrainians have been fighting, how do you keep finding mid-and-high ranking officers to fill the gap? Not ever person is cut out for higher level command, its hard and exhausting work. Plus you need LOTS of education AND! experience to make it work. You can just give everyone under the casualty an instant promotion and call it done. The USSR found this out during the great purge, when you had officers with very little experience in management and command suddenly organizing entire regiments and divisions. Another example is the USACW, where Union generals changed over few really ever learned how to manage an army. Of the best Army commanders, Grant and Sheridan were both quartermasters and so had management experience, Lee was a prewar Col. with active experience in the John Brown raid, and Johnston had significant prewar exercise experience. Ambrose Burnside, on the other hand, was a man frequently promoted above his rank. He excelled in tactical commands at the brigade, division, and corps level. But struggle mightily to command an army. 

I just dont see how the Russians can reconstitute their northern direction forces to make a serious long term impact on the eastern battlefields at this point. 

[BlackMoria]

 I, long ago, while being a peace keeper in Bosnia in '93 where I had front row seats to ethnic cleansing and had my mind and soul seared during the six months of hell myself and other Canadian peace keepers went through, came to a realization - we are fundamentally savages.  Intellectually as a species, we evolved to put a man on the moon and do all sorts of uplifting things.  But the savage in each and everyone of us is still there and we had far too many wars where the savage in each of us is stirred and we do terrible things to to other human beings - The holocaust, Stalin's atrocities to his own people and other ethnic groups, Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethopia.... etc.  All that in the last hundred years - never mind that this savagery had gone on for thousands of years.

We have no better angels.  We are not enlightened people, evolving out of our savage tribal roots.  We are savages with the trappings of a technological society.  We have guns, missiles and tanks instead of spears, clubs and bows.

Just pointing out what sometimes is getting missed.   What is happening in Ukraine is normal human interaction of the worst type.  If we grew out of our savage origins, humanity would have given up war and atrocities as a form of social interaction long ago.    

Edited April 7, 2022 by BlackMoria

[BeondTheGrave]

15 minutes ago, Suchy said:

Two very interesting articles

About Polish MiGs

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/poland-considering-italian-korean-alternatives-to-backfill-mig-29s/?fbclid=IwAR0qlvnyWzhMC6stGe1JAvVwCh8slze13R2YD2yvAJvaG03BXFMtEkyhGto

and about Cyprus weapon

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/us_agrees_with_cyprus_on_bmp_3_t_80_and_sam_buk_for_ukraine_media-2475.html?fbclid=IwAR11PaOAkSCtHgwwR5K_tTEeWQzIZjMnmaJcl3OP-PX5puPwM4m1irwMayM

 

This remains the key component of the Poland story:

Quote

Second, there is the larger hurdle that Poland wants to receive either free, used aircraft or some other cheap option in return for handing the MiG-29s over to Ukraine. This makes the other European possibilities less attractive for the simple fact that the Poles would have to pay for these aircraft, unless the EU would agree to fund the acquisition in return for the MiG-29s being transferred to Kyiv.

Poland doesn't want to transfer MiGs to Ukraine just because its cool, theyre trying to scam out some free fighters from the deal. They play here seems to be to try and get the US to transfer F-16s with the promise of future upgrade and service packages to US industries. Smart play on Poland's part, we all know how the US likes to sign deals subsidizing American arms makers. Plus as it stands right now, the MiG's are slated for decommissioning once Poland gets its F-35s. BUT if the F-16 is seen as 'good enough,' could Poland just cut back its expensive F-35 procurement, save some money, and get a fighter upgrade in the process? I suspect thats what were seeing here.

Now that the US has backed out of the arms transfer, seems like Poland is going to ask the EU to fund its fighter upgrades. Interestingly the article mentions the transfer of Aermacchi M-346s. Not sure I think those are the equivalents of MiG-29s or F-16s, but they would probably go a ways to replacing Poland's aging SU-22 fleet as well. Edit: according to Wikipedia Poland has been in troubled acquisitions for M-346 trainers for some time. Could be a way to smooth the acquisition and strongarm Aermacchi? 

Edited April 7, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[akd]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Goddammit Scott, do you not understand that your primary role as a reporter is the gathering of memes to post on the internet!?

 

Haha, finally:

[OldSarge]

Apparently from the Azov regiment, a commenter was suggesting the firer is a BTR-4.

Edited April 7, 2022 by OldSarge

[Cpl Steiner]

Just throwing out there a theory of mine - that the brutality of soldiers is related to whether they come from city or rural backgrounds. This part of the world is very rural so I imagine lots of the combatants are used to seeing animals slaughtered etc.

[womble]

7 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Apparently from the Azov regiment, a commenter was suggesting the firer is a BTR-4.

And the targets are SPG rather than tanks, I'd hazard. Or are modern "proper tanks" vulnerable to 30mm AC fire from the rear?

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Just throwing out there a theory of mine - that the brutality of soldiers is related to whether they come from city or rural backgrounds. This part of the world is very rural so I imagine lots of the combatants are used to seeing animals slaughtered etc.

Nah. Lots of Ukrainian soldiers come from rural areas as well. Even russian pilots and artillery guys keep getting taken alive.

It has to do with the lack of civilized norms. Remember in Russia according to their laws a man can beat up a woman once a year without invoking intervention from authorities.

So imagine growing up in a family in a country where wife beatings are so widespread and such a norm - they had to let russians do it "within reason". Not growing up violent is an achievement.

Edited April 7, 2022 by kraze

[Cpl Steiner]

11 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Apparently from the Azov regiment, a commenter was suggesting the firer is a BTR-4.

The rear tank of the column is still moving at the end. you can see it's cannon as it manoeuvres into the field

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

How do you just replace higher unit commanders that quickly?

You don't.  Russia is moving in final year officer cadets into the field.  They haven't even completed their schooling, not to mention having any practical experience with a unit yet.

There is an estimate out there that Russia has last at least 1000 mid grade officers in the war so far.  One can only imagine how many junior officers have been lost.  This will take at least 15+ years to replace with the same number with a similar degree of technical competence.  Remember, officers work their way up the ranks and gain experience along the way.  You don't just crank out Majors and LTCs, it takes years and years for them to be produced.  And if all your LTs and Captains are dead it takes even longer.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

 I, long ago, while being a peace keeper in Bosnia in '93 where I had front row seats to ethnic cleansing and had my mind and soul seared during the six months of hell myself and other Canadian peace keepers went through, came to a realization - we are fundamentally savages.  Intellectually as a species, we evolved to put a man on the moon and do all sorts of uplifting things.  But the savage in each and everyone of us is still there and we had far too many wars where the savage in each of us is stirred and we do terrible things to to other human beings - The holocaust, Stalin's atrocities to his own people and other ethnic groups, Rwanda, Bosnia, Cambodia, Sudan, Yemen, Ethopia.... etc.  All that in the last hundred years - never mind that this savagery had gone on for thousands of years.

We have no better angels.  We are not enlightened people, evolving out of our savage tribal roots.  We are savages with the trappings of a technological society.  We have guns, missiles and tanks instead of spears, clubs and bows.

Just pointing out what sometimes is getting missed.   What is happening in Ukraine is normal human interaction of the worst type.  If we grew out of our savage origins, humanity would have given up war and atrocities as a form of social interaction long ago.    

Sadly true.  I had the same conversation with my wife last night while watching people hack each other to pieces in the Last Kingdom.  While the Human race trends towards being less and less violent towards each other over time, we are still basically the same highly flawed animals we were when Grog hit Urgh on the head for a seedpod.

Steve